| 2026年1月6日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292 | | | | | | | | | 熊客健 | Z0019608 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 种类 | | 日期 | | 品种 | | IRR (%) | | 最新值 | 较前一交易日变化 | 上市以来百分位数 | | | | | | 2026-01-05 | TS基差 | | 1.4303 | | 0.0004 | 0.0074 | 17.50% | | | 基差 | | | 2026-01-05 | TF基差 | | 1.6224 | | -0.0349 | 0.0290 | 44.00% | | | | | | 2026-01-05 | T基差 | | 1.2733 | | 0.0966 | -0.0665 | 42.90% | | | | | | 2026-01-05 | TL基差 | | 1.5810 | | 0.3365 | -0.4905 | 54.30% | | | | | | 2026- ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Da Dongfang, has a high rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 274.61, significantly above the industry average of 44.32, indicating potential overvaluation in the market [1][2]. Company Summary - Da Dongfang's closing price on November 24 was 4.99 yuan, reflecting a 2.25% increase, with a total market capitalization of 4.415 billion yuan [1]. - The company operates in the retail and healthcare sectors, focusing on department store retail, the Sanfengqiao brand, and healthcare services [1]. - For the third quarter of 2025, Da Dongfang reported a revenue of 2.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.23%, and a net profit of 55.6589 million yuan, down 33.12% from the previous year, with a gross margin of 16.50% [1]. Industry Summary - The average PE ratio for the healthcare services industry is 44.32, with a median of 60.11, positioning Da Dongfang at the 38th rank within the industry [1][2]. - The industry shows a range of PE ratios, with notable companies like WuXi AppTec at 18.70 and Ai Er Eye Hospital at 33.46, indicating varying levels of valuation across the sector [2].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic disturbances last week primarily revolved around the possibility of interest rate cuts, with the market initially pricing in a higher likelihood of no cuts in December, but later data from the labor market raised expectations for potential cuts [2][6] - Precious metals experienced a pullback, with COMEX gold down 0.53% and silver down 1.47%, while copper prices also saw fluctuations, with COMEX copper down 1.07% [4][6] - The market for copper showed signs of increased downstream purchasing after a price correction, although overall consumption remained lukewarm, with expectations for next year's supply and demand dynamics influencing current pricing [10][55] Group 2 - The gold and silver markets entered an adjustment phase, with prices fluctuating in response to changing interest rate expectations, particularly after comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated potential for rate cuts [8][28] - COMEX copper prices exhibited a volatile pattern, maintaining a contango structure, with significant inventory levels indicating ongoing supply dynamics that may affect future pricing strategies [10][11] - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) index showed a slight decline, with market participants awaiting the results of year-end negotiations that could influence future pricing and demand [16][19] Group 3 - The overall inventory levels for precious metals decreased, with COMEX gold inventory down approximately 620,000 ounces and COMEX silver inventory down about 1,497,000 ounces [43] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.4 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 39 tons, indicating shifting investor sentiment in the precious metals market [48] - The copper market is expected to maintain resilience through the end of the year, with supply-demand dynamics remaining favorable despite current price fluctuations [55]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads on November 21, 2025, including IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' term - to - term spreads and cross - variety ratios [1]. - For example, the IF term - to - term spread of the next - month minus the current - month is - 18.80, with a change of - 0.60 from the previous day, and historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of 20.90% and 24.10% respectively [1]. - The cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are also provided, along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - On November 21, 2025, the report shows the IRR, latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of different treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. - It details the term - to - term spreads of different treasury bond futures, like the TS term - to - term spread of the current - season minus the next - season is 0.0420, with a change of - 0.0080 from the previous day and a percentile of 31.90% since listing [2]. - Cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures are also presented, such as TS - TF with a value of - 3.4730, a change of - 0.0550, and a percentile of 9.60% since listing [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - On November 21, 2025, the report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [3]. - For example, the AU2512 contract's domestic futures closing price on November 20 was 932.56, down 4.44 from the previous day, with a decline of - 0.47% [3]. - The basis, such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, is - 2.56, with a change of 0.16 from the previous value and a historical 1 - year percentile of 53.40% [3]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - On November 22, 2025, the report shows container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data [5]. - The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on November 17 was 1357.67, down 147.1 from November 10, with a decline of - 9.78% [5]. - Fundamental data includes global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port calls, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent investment activities of prominent investors Warren Buffett and Duan Yongping, highlighting their new positions in technology stocks [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Warren Buffett and Duan Yongping have recently established new positions in technology stocks, indicating a shift in their investment strategy towards this sector [1] - The article emphasizes the growing interest in technology stocks among institutional investors, suggesting a potential trend in the market [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The entry of high-profile investors into technology stocks may signal increased confidence in the sector's growth potential [1] - The article suggests that this trend could lead to a broader market rally in technology shares, impacting overall market dynamics [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spread Data**: The latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical quantiles, and full - historical quantiles of various stock index futures price spreads (including period - to - period spreads and spot - futures spreads) are presented. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is 1.20, down 12.76 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 74.50% and a full - historical quantile of 48.50% [1]. 2. Bond Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report - **Basis and Spread Data**: The report shows the basis, spread, and their changes, as well as the quantiles since the contract's listing for different bond futures (such as TS, TF, T, TL). For instance, the TF basis on September 12, 2025, is 1.1549, up 0.0604 from the previous day, with a 28.00% quantile since listing [2]. 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Price and Spread Data**: It includes domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals. For example, the AU2510 contract's closing price on September 12 is 834.22 yuan/gram, up 3.44 yuan from the previous day, with a 0.41% increase [3]. 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot and Futures Data**: The report provides spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data. For example, the SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on September 8 is 1556.46, down 217.1 from September 1, with a 12.24% decrease [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating", indicating a neutral stance in the short - term [4]. Report's Core View - The LPG market shows a situation of "weak oil and strong gas". PG prices are firm due to freight and capital factors. The supply - demand contradiction of propylene in the intermediate link is alleviated, and the terminal PP demand is saturated, resulting in continuous and substantial losses in PDH profits. In the short - term, PG prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with a relatively low current valuation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts and geopolitical risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated and rose, with a range of 4360 - 4470 yuan/ton. The spot price trend was weaker than the futures, and the basis weakened. International crude oil prices first fell and then rose, and the trend of PG futures was basically the same as that of crude oil. International LPG prices increased, but domestic spot prices showed both increases and decreases. Chemical demand declined significantly, and the profits of multiple chemical plants continued to be in the red. The internal valuation of futures prices was neutral. The weekly average basis was 37 yuan/ton in East China, 120 yuan/ton in South China, and 30 yuan/ton in Shandong, with the lowest deliverable standard being in Shandong [7]. 2. Influencing Factors Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 53.74 million tons, including 20.52 million tons of civil gas, 21.04 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.89 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The arrival volume of LPG last week was 65 million tons. With the resumption of some devices in East China and Shandong last week, the supply increased. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and it is expected that the domestic commercial volume may decline [4]. Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening, but the price of civil gas remains firm in the short - term. In the carbon - four deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is at a high level. The profit of alkylated gasoline has changed from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the carbon - three deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH device to the propylene and PP links [4]. Inventory - Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 17.91 million tons, and the port inventory was 318.65 million tons. The domestic LPG inventory continued to increase. Although the trading and transportation capacity resumed after the end of large - scale domestic events, the inventory pressure in some northern regions was gradually relieved. However, in other regions, due to increased supply and weak demand, the shipment volume decreased to varying degrees, and the refinery storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. At the ports, the number of incoming ships decreased slightly, but the unloading volume was more than the arrival volume, with little change compared to last week. Coupled with the downward trend of overall chemical demand, the port inventory increased slightly [4]. Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was a certain value in East China, South China, and Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 6, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [4]. Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 70.49%, 55.81%, and 46.17% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 52 yuan/ton, - 291 yuan/ton, and - 180.50 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was a certain value, and the PG continuous - one to continuous - two month spread was a certain value. With the continuous increase in crude oil production, the cost segment was dragged down, and the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [4]. Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ increased production by 137,000 barrels again, starting the second round of the production - increase cycle to regain market share. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an enhanced expectation of economic slowdown and interest - rate cuts. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [4]. 3. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on PG2510 and short on SC2510 [4].

RT Mrseven.eth (@mrseven_1)更新一下ETH微策略中BMNR、SBET的持仓和均价数据：本次主要更新了SBET于7.28-8.3期间新增的83561枚，官推说买入均价是3634，但是，用“花费金额/新增”得到的数据是3165。所以，推测以市场价买入部分均价应该是3634，部分是场外折扣买入，拉低了买入均价到3165。$ETH $BMNR $SBET ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the latest holdings of investor Dan Bin, highlighting the evolution of ETFs and their impact on investment strategies [1] Group 1: ETF Evolution - The article outlines the significant growth of ETFs in recent years, noting that their market share has increased dramatically, making them a popular choice among investors [1] - It emphasizes the diversification benefits that ETFs provide, allowing investors to gain exposure to various sectors and asset classes with lower costs [1] Group 2: Dan Bin's Holdings - Dan Bin's latest portfolio reveals a strategic shift towards sectors that are expected to perform well in the current economic climate, indicating a proactive investment approach [1] - The article details specific stocks and sectors that Dan Bin has increased his holdings in, suggesting a focus on technology and renewable energy [1]

Market Observation - The industry has discovered that open interest (OI) is calculated bi-directionally [1] - Individual's position accounts for 10%-15% of the open interest (OI) in some contracts [1] - If OI is calculated bi-directionally, the individual's position would account for 20%-30% [1] - The industry's understanding of OI/MC data may be flawed due to the bi-directional calculation [1] Data Correction - Previously used OI/MC data may need to be divided by 2 to reflect the actual situation [1]