| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年9月15日 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 价去 | 66.30% | F期现价差 | 1.20 | -12.76 | 74.50% | | | | | | | | | H期视价差 | 0.06 | -7.06 | 53.60% | 57.30% | 朗现价差 | IC期现价差 | -9.64 | -7.75 | 85.20% | 72.40% | IM期现价差 | -30.08 | -18.00 | 70.00% | 48.50% | | 次月-当月 | -6.20 | 1.40 | 44.60% | 44.40% | 李月-当月 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating", indicating a neutral stance in the short - term [4]. Report's Core View - The LPG market shows a situation of "weak oil and strong gas". PG prices are firm due to freight and capital factors. The supply - demand contradiction of propylene in the intermediate link is alleviated, and the terminal PP demand is saturated, resulting in continuous and substantial losses in PDH profits. In the short - term, PG prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with a relatively low current valuation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts and geopolitical risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated and rose, with a range of 4360 - 4470 yuan/ton. The spot price trend was weaker than the futures, and the basis weakened. International crude oil prices first fell and then rose, and the trend of PG futures was basically the same as that of crude oil. International LPG prices increased, but domestic spot prices showed both increases and decreases. Chemical demand declined significantly, and the profits of multiple chemical plants continued to be in the red. The internal valuation of futures prices was neutral. The weekly average basis was 37 yuan/ton in East China, 120 yuan/ton in South China, and 30 yuan/ton in Shandong, with the lowest deliverable standard being in Shandong [7]. 2. Influencing Factors Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 53.74 million tons, including 20.52 million tons of civil gas, 21.04 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.89 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The arrival volume of LPG last week was 65 million tons. With the resumption of some devices in East China and Shandong last week, the supply increased. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and it is expected that the domestic commercial volume may decline [4]. Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening, but the price of civil gas remains firm in the short - term. In the carbon - four deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is at a high level. The profit of alkylated gasoline has changed from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the carbon - three deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH device to the propylene and PP links [4]. Inventory - Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 17.91 million tons, and the port inventory was 318.65 million tons. The domestic LPG inventory continued to increase. Although the trading and transportation capacity resumed after the end of large - scale domestic events, the inventory pressure in some northern regions was gradually relieved. However, in other regions, due to increased supply and weak demand, the shipment volume decreased to varying degrees, and the refinery storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. At the ports, the number of incoming ships decreased slightly, but the unloading volume was more than the arrival volume, with little change compared to last week. Coupled with the downward trend of overall chemical demand, the port inventory increased slightly [4]. Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was a certain value in East China, South China, and Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 6, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [4]. Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 70.49%, 55.81%, and 46.17% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 52 yuan/ton, - 291 yuan/ton, and - 180.50 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was a certain value, and the PG continuous - one to continuous - two month spread was a certain value. With the continuous increase in crude oil production, the cost segment was dragged down, and the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [4]. Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ increased production by 137,000 barrels again, starting the second round of the production - increase cycle to regain market share. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an enhanced expectation of economic slowdown and interest - rate cuts. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [4]. 3. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on PG2510 and short on SC2510 [4].

RT Mrseven.eth (@mrseven_1)更新一下ETH微策略中BMNR、SBET的持仓和均价数据：本次主要更新了SBET于7.28-8.3期间新增的83561枚，官推说买入均价是3634，但是，用“花费金额/新增”得到的数据是3165。所以，推测以市场价买入部分均价应该是3634，部分是场外折扣买入，拉低了买入均价到3165。$ETH $BMNR $SBET ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the latest holdings of investor Dan Bin, highlighting the evolution of ETFs and their impact on investment strategies [1] Group 1: ETF Evolution - The article outlines the significant growth of ETFs in recent years, noting that their market share has increased dramatically, making them a popular choice among investors [1] - It emphasizes the diversification benefits that ETFs provide, allowing investors to gain exposure to various sectors and asset classes with lower costs [1] Group 2: Dan Bin's Holdings - Dan Bin's latest portfolio reveals a strategic shift towards sectors that are expected to perform well in the current economic climate, indicating a proactive investment approach [1] - The article details specific stocks and sectors that Dan Bin has increased his holdings in, suggesting a focus on technology and renewable energy [1]

Market Observation - The industry has discovered that open interest (OI) is calculated bi-directionally [1] - Individual's position accounts for 10%-15% of the open interest (OI) in some contracts [1] - If OI is calculated bi-directionally, the individual's position would account for 20%-30% [1] - The industry's understanding of OI/MC data may be flawed due to the bi-directional calculation [1] Data Correction - Previously used OI/MC data may need to be divided by 2 to reflect the actual situation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including price differences, spreads, ratios, and related economic indicators, providing investors with information for market analysis and decision - making [1][2][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Spread - **Price Differences**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM price differences range from - 23.24 to - 200.00, with changes from - 0.50 to 11.42 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 5.30% to 32.70% [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: For IF, IH, IC, and IM inter - period spreads, the latest values range from - 8.80 to - 329.80, with changes from - 5.00 to 3.20 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.60% to 61.30% [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., have the latest values from 1.4485 to 2.1619, with changes from - 0.0167 to - 0.0016 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 38.60% to 71.30% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The latest basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL range from 0.0000 to 1.8885, with changes from - 0.0260 to 0.1426 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 7.60% to 65.10% [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have the latest values from - 0.2340 to 0.2800, with changes from - 0.0400 to 0.0200 compared to the previous day, and historical percentiles from 8.00% to 19.80% [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have the latest values from - 18.6920 to - 0.0010, and historical percentiles from 1.30% to 2.10% [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot and Futures - **Spot Prices**: COMEX silver rose 0.68% to 37.04 dollars per ounce, London gold rose 0.33% to 3336.94 dollars per ounce, etc. [5] - **Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold fell 0.97% to 3336.00 dollars per ounce, AU2508 fell 0.54% to 777.06 yuan per gram, etc. [6] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.49, with a historical percentile of 0.80%, and silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 34, with a historical percentile of 27.30% [4] - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio was 90.06, down 1.64% [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.2% to 4.35%, and the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 96.99 [4] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased 16.25% to 21456 kilograms, and COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.71% to 36785583 ounces [4] 4. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe shipping quotes vary, with Maersk down 5.13% to 2978 dollars per FEU and CMA CGM up 11.40% to 4085 dollars per FEU [7] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) rose 9.61% to 2123.24, and SCFIS (US West route) fell 22.28% to 1619.19 [7] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2508 (main contract) fell 2.48% to 1849.9, and the basis (main contract) rose 33.21% to 822.2 [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3266.65 million TEU, and Shanghai's port punctuality rate rose 46.45% to 42.50 [7] 5. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information - **Overseas Data**: Eurozone's comprehensive PMI rose 0.80% to 50.60, and the US manufacturing PMI index rose 1.03% to 49.00 [7][9] - **Domestic Data**: China's June foreign exchange reserves, iron ore shipments, and other data are to be released, and some data such as SMM electrolytic copper social inventory are expected to be updated [9]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios [1] Summary by Directory - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF is - 7.78 (41.80% 1 - year, 40.00% all - time), IH is - 11.23 (- 2.16 change, 25.40% 1 - year, 19.50% all - time), IC is - 11.24 (8.69 change, 77.00% 1 - year, 67.00% all - time), IM is - 21.81 (13.61 change, 90.00% 1 - year, 48.30% all - time) [1] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts like next - month vs. current - month, season - month vs. current - month, far - month vs. current - month, values and changes are provided for IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Such as CSI 500/CSI 300 = 1.4855 (- 0.0046 change, 60.20% 1 - year, 41.10% all - time), IC/IF = 1.4856 (- 0.0027 change, 64.70% 1 - year, 59.30% all - time), etc. [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis [4] Summary by Directory - **Basis**: TS basis has an IRR of 1.7719 (- 0.0506 change, 33.90% percentile), TF basis has an IRR of 1.8376 (- 0.0358 change, 51.80% percentile), etc. [4] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts like current - season vs. next - season, values and changes are provided for TS, TF, T, and TL [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Such as TS - TF = - 3.7110 (- 0.0300 change, 2.00% percentile), TF - T = - 2.8450 (0.0250 change, 1.40% percentile), etc. [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides information on domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2508 contract is 794.36 yuan/g (1.17% increase), AG2508 contract is 8791 yuan/kg (- 0.32% decrease); foreign COMEX gold is 3452.60 dollars/ounce (1.36% increase), COMEX silver is 36.37 dollars/ounce (- 0.11% decrease) [7] - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 3433.35 dollars/ounce (1.40% increase), London silver is 36.29 dollars/ounce (- 0.13% decrease), etc. [7] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.50 (1.30 change, 12.40% 1 - year percentile), silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is 2 (- 49 previous, 91.10% 1 - year percentile) [7] - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 94.93 (1.37 change, 1.47% increase), Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 90.36 (1.33 change, 1.49% increase) [7] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.41% (1.1% increase), 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.96% (1.5% increase), etc. [7] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 18177 kg (1.85% increase), COMEX silver inventory is 498460011 (0.05% increase), etc. [7] Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Displays spot quotes, index changes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [11][12] Summary by Directory - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates for MAERSK is 2796 dollars/FEU (- 2.03% decrease), CMA is 3857 dollars/FEU (1.88% increase), etc. [12] - **Index Changes**: SCFIS (European route) is 1622.81 points (29.53% increase), SCFI comprehensive index is 2088.24 (- 6.79% decrease) [11] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 is 1472.8 (2.07% increase), EC2508 (main contract) is 2068.0 (4.20% increase), basis (main contract) is - 315.1 (374.1 change, - 54.28% change) [11] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3247.12 million TEU (0.00% change), Shanghai port on - time rate is 42.50 (46.45% increase), etc. [11] Group 5: Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic data and information sources and corresponding economic indicators or financial events [13] Summary by Directory - **Overseas Data/Info**: In the agricultural product sector, includes Brazil Secex weekly report, USDA crop growth and export inspection in the US, NOPA soybean crushing [13] - **Domestic Data/Info**: For macro data, includes 70 - city housing price report, national economic operation press conference, etc.; for different commodities like iron ore, black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, etc., specific data such as shipments, inventories are provided [13]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the rapeseed meal industry [8] Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal is affected by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory and the additional tariff on Canadian oil cake imports, leading to a short - term rise and then a fall. Along with the influence of soybean meal, its price will return to a range - bound oscillation in the short term [8] - The short - term supply - demand fundamentals of rapeseed meal enter a pattern of strong supply and demand in June, and the RM2509 contract may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [44] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal's fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bearish; inventory is bullish; the price is bullish on the chart; the main position is bullish; it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [10] - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cake, while the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10] - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsets the decrease in Ukrainian production to some extent. Geopolitical conflicts support commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cake, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [11] - Bearish factors include the upcoming listing of domestic rapeseed in June and uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [11] 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed import arrivals in June are lower than expected, and import costs are strongly oscillating [18] - Oil mill rapeseed inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed meal inventory has slightly declined [21] - Oil mill rapeseed crushing volume has slightly increased [23] - Aquatic fish prices are slightly fluctuating, while shrimp and shellfish prices are stable [31] - The rapeseed meal market is oscillating and rising, with spot prices firming up, and the spot discount remaining at a relatively high level [33] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continues to narrow, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remains oscillating [37] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8] 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rising, and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short and medium term. Future changes in China - Canada trade relations and the follow - up impact of the Sino - US tariff war will affect the market [42] - The KDJ indicator is oscillating near a high level, and the short - term market is strongly oscillating, but the upward space may be limited [42] - The MACD is oscillating and rising at a low level, but the red energy is narrowing, and the short - term market is strongly oscillating. The follow - up trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the influence of soybean meal [42] 7. Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrivals and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45] - The second - most important factors are domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory in domestic oil mills and downstream purchasing [46] - Other important factors include macro - factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [46]

记录一下 OPAIUM 的时间线，昨晚到现在盘面发生了比较大的变化，不构成投资建议，风险很高。1. 昨晚OPAIUM推特账户时隔十几天发了一个新帖子：https://t.co/dVSctcLXCD（这里的背景是他们的三个账号：zerebro十几天前复用账号持续2天然后停用至今，jeffy 个人号销号，对外只有 opaium 的账号可以访问）2. 我点进opaium 的 ca，发现在他发帖前5min，发生了一笔666s 的买单，是全新小号做的，我意识到不对劲，于是上了头仓，因为在4月末的opaium 的拉升中，买入也是以666这样的数字进行的，我意识到大概率是他自己做的。3. 接下来我追查买入地址的资金流向，发现几个大额买单地址将币转入了目前的榜一：3wWUwvMkJG7Lwza7uuEWAQjf7QxSzxrnwVdwZXy4zpnW当时的持仓是20%，市值是1m 左右。4.大约20分钟以后，opaium 的 dev 进行了 devbuy，数量很小，加强了我认为666s 买单和直接相关的心证，于是继续加仓。5. 持续追踪地址集群，发现某一转币关联地址被转入676s，我意识到可能会进行下一次的买入，于是继续加仓 ...