证券研究报告 星期二 沪指震荡上涨,全市场量能萎缩,稀土、房地产板块领涨 2024年7月2日 【A 股市场大势研判】 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|--------|-------|-------|----------------|-------| | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | | 上证指数分时图 | | | 上证指数 | 2994.73 | 0.92% | 27.33 | | | | | 深证成指 | 8899.17 | 0.57% | 50.47 | | | | | 沪深 300 | 3478.18 | 0.48% | 16.53 | | | | | 创业板 | 1682.69 | -0.04% | -0.74 | | | | | 科创 20 | 709.60 | -0.35% | -2.47 | | | | | 北证 50 | 709.64 | 0.09% | 0.67 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" is expected to stabilize and potentially increase rare earth prices, reflecting the government's confidence in the high-quality development of the rare earth industry [2][3]. - The regulations emphasize the protection of rare earth resources, with the state owning these resources and implementing protective mining practices. This is expected to enhance the regulatory framework and promote green development within the industry [2]. - The demand for rare earths is anticipated to accelerate, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, which remains the largest consumer of rare earth materials. The growth in the robotics sector is also expected to create new opportunities for rare earth applications [2][3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The "Rare Earth Management Regulations" will take effect on October 1, 2024, consisting of 32 articles aimed at improving resource protection, management systems, and promoting high-quality development in the rare earth industry [2]. Supply Side Improvements - The regulations will enforce total quantity control on rare earth mining and smelting, leading to a more organized supply chain and resource protection. The first batch of rare earth quotas for 2024 is expected to show a year-on-year increase, indicating a positive governmental stance towards the industry [2]. Demand Dynamics - The regulations encourage the development of new technologies and applications in the rare earth sector, with a focus on high-value and high-tech products. The electric vehicle market continues to thrive, supporting rare earth demand, while advancements in robotics are expected to further drive this demand [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Companies that are likely to benefit from the integration of the rare earth industry and the acceleration of electric vehicle and robotics sectors include China Rare Earth (000831.SZ), Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), Guangsheng Nonferrous (600259.SH), Jieli Permanent Magnet (300748.SZ), and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials (300224.SZ) [3].

中长期来看，消费建材中头部企业还存在销售渠道优化、消费升级、市场占有率提升、 拓展品类培育新增长点以及海外布局等带来的增长机会。建议可关注本身具备竞争护城 河，基本面稳健的企业。建议关注：伟星新材（002372）、北新建材（002791）、兔宝 宝（002043）等。 资料来源：东莞证券研究所 （3）房企资金链改善缓慢，融资仍然受阻，暴雷现象持续出现； 表 2： 截至 6 月 28 日，申万房地产板块近两周下跌 10.24%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.99 个百分点， 在申万 31 个行业中排名倒数第一位；近一月下跌 15.21%；本年累计下跌 20.44%。SW 二 级房地产板块方面，近两周 SW 房地产开发下跌 10.28%，SW 房地产服务下跌 9.34%。 资料来源：iFind、东莞证券研究所 8. 6 月 24 日，住建部、金融监管总局联合召开保交房政策培训视频会议。会议指出， 为进一步发挥城市房地产融资协调机制作用，更好满足城市房地产项目的合理融资 需求，要压实地方政府、房地产企业、金融机构各方责任；完善机制组成，健全项 目推送反馈管理，加大项目修复力度；加强"白名单"的审核把关；指导银行做好 ...

证券研究报告 星期一 沪指止跌反弹,市场量能有所回升 市场表现: 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------|----------|---------------------------|---------------------------|-------|-----------------------------|--------| | 国防军工 | 申万一级涨幅前五 \n3.20% | 非银金融 | 申万一级跌幅前五 \n-1.50% | 热点板块涨幅前五 \n中船系 | 4.54% | 热点板块跌幅前五 \n家庭医生 | -1.47% | | 石油石化 | 2.21% | 食品饮料 | -1.40% | 桑性直流输电 | 3.69% | 数字货币 | -1.39% | | 有色金属 | 2.15% | 房地产 | -1.16% | 无线充电 | 3.16% | 知识产权保护 | -1.37% | | 通信 | 2.14% | ...

超配(维持) 公用事业行业双周报(2024/6/17-2024/6/30) 国家能源局发布 1-5 月份全国电力工业统计数据 投资要点: ◼ 行情回顾:截至6月28日,近两周申万公用事业指数下降0.90%,跑赢沪 深300指数1.36个百分点,在31个申万行业中排第4名;年初至今,申万 公用事业指数上涨11.76%,跑赢沪深300指数10.87个百分点,在31个申 万行业中排第3名。 ◼ 分板块来看,近两周申万公用事业指数的子板块涨少跌多,其中仅水力 发电板块上涨2.86%;6个子板块下跌,光伏发电板块下跌8.38%,风力发 电板块下跌6.87%,热力服务板块下跌6.79%,电能综合服务板块下跌 6.39%,燃气板块下跌2.30%,火力发电板块下跌0.58%。 ◼ 个股方面,申万公用事业指数包含的127家上市公司中,近两周股价上 涨的公司有25家,其中ST浩源、立新能源、桂冠电力的涨幅靠前,分别 达23.14%、15.50%、9.57%;股价下跌的公司有101家,其中深南电A、芯 能科技、兆新股份的跌幅较大,分别为18.30%、17.76%、16.88%。 ◼ 重点行业资讯:(1)6月27日,保山市人民政府发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals and steel industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry has seen a decline of 2.36% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 industries. Year-to-date, the industry has increased by 2.72%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.83 percentage points [2][12] - The steel industry has declined by 4.65% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.40 percentage points, ranking 15th among 31 industries. Year-to-date, the steel industry has decreased by 10.57%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 11.46 percentage points [2][12] Market Review - As of June 28, 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen various sub-sectors decline, with energy metals down 8.44%, small metals down 2.78%, and industrial metals down 1.00% [3][17] - The precious metals sector has experienced a slight decline of 0.35% over the past two weeks, while year-to-date, it has increased by 21.65% [17] - The steel sector's comprehensive price index (CSPI) is at 102.96 points, with coking coal priced at 1958 RMB/ton, coke at 2250 RMB/ton, and iron ore at 839.11 RMB/ton [37] Industry News - The U.S. PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, supporting expectations for interest rate cuts [4][40] - China's crude steel production in May was 92.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [41] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has indicated continued control over crude steel production in 2024, suggesting future tightening [7][42] Company Announcements - Notable companies in the non-ferrous metals sector include Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988), which are recommended for attention due to their performance [5][19] - In the steel sector, Baosteel (600019) and Guangdong Mingzhu (600382) are highlighted among the top performers [22]

超配(维持) 传媒行业双周报(2024/6/17-2024/6/30) OpenAI 扩大 API 限服区域,关注国产大模型投资机遇 2024 年 6 月 30 日 投资要点: 行情回顾及估值:申万传媒板块近2周(2024/6/17-2024/6/28)累计下 跌6.03%,跑输沪深300指数3.78个百分点,涨幅在31个申万一级行业中 位列第21位;申万传媒板块6月累计下跌8.64%,跑输沪深300指数5.34 个百分点;申万传媒板块今年累计下跌21.33%,跑输沪深300指数22.22 个百分点。截至2024年6月28日,据同花顺数据显示,SW传媒板块PE TTM (剔除负值)为20.41倍,低于近1年平均值19.16%。 罗炜斌 SAC 执业证书编号: S0340521020001 电话:0769-22110619 邮箱: luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 二级子板块近2周涨跌幅:申万传媒板块的6个二级子板块近2周 (2024/6/17-2024/6/28)全面下跌,跌幅由低到高依次为:SW广告营 销(-2.54%)>SW数字媒体(-5.94%)>SW出版(-6.36%)>SW电视广 播(-6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 6.2% from June 17 to June 28, 2024, which is approximately 3.95 percentage points lower than the index [5]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded negative returns during the same period, with declines of 5.42% in planting, 6.19% in breeding, 6.2% in feed, 6.36% in agricultural product processing, 6.52% in animal health, and 7.53% in fishery [6]. - Approximately 96% of stocks in the industry experienced negative returns, with only 4% showing positive returns, and the highest gain was 11.09% for Dayu Biological [8][9]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index was approximately 2.32 times as of June 28, 2024, indicating a relative low valuation compared to historical levels [11]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-line pigs decreased from 18.77 CNY/kg to 17.99 CNY/kg between June 17 and June 30, 2024 [14]. - **Production Capacity**: As of the end of May 2024, the number of breeding sows was 39.96 million, a 0.3% increase month-on-month but a 6.2% decrease year-on-year [17]. - **Costs**: The spot price of corn was 2480.39 CNY/ton, showing an increase, while the spot price of soybean meal was 3320 CNY/ton, showing a decrease as of June 28, 2024 [17]. - **Profitability**: The profit for self-breeding and self-raising pig farming was 285.2 CNY per head, which decreased compared to the previous week [17]. Industry News - The Hainan provincial government issued guidelines to support high-quality development in the seed industry, with eligible enterprises receiving subsidies up to 10 million CNY [28]. - Green康生化 signed a supply agreement with Zoetis Belgium S.A. for the supply of methylene salicylate bacteria peptide for the years 2024 to 2026 [29]. - 正虹科技 announced the transfer of subsidiary equity for 9.44 million CNY [30]. - 生物股份 received the National Technology Invention Award for its vaccine development project [31]. Industry Outlook - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating, anticipating a continued decline in pig supply in the second half of the year, with improved profitability expected due to lower cost pressures compared to last year [33]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in leading companies with strong cash reserves and cost control capabilities, such as牧原股份 (002714), 温氏股份 (300498), and 新希望 (000876) [34].

超配(维持) 电力设备及新能源行业双周报(2024/6/17-2024/6/30) 5 月全国电网工程投资完成额保持同环比增长 投资要点: S0340522050001 电话:0769-22119416 邮箱: liuxingwen@dgzq.com.cn SAC 执业证书编号: S0340523080001 电话:0769-22110925 邮箱:suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源:iFinD,东莞证券研究所 2024 年 6 月 30 日 行情回顾:截至2024年6月28日,近两周申万电力设备行业下跌6.45%, 跑输沪深300指数4.19个百分点,在申万31个行业中排名第26名;申万 电力设备行业本月下跌10.53%,跑输沪深300指数7.22个百分点,在申 万31个行业中排名第23名;申万电力设备板块年初至今下跌15.56%,跑 输沪深300指数16.45个百分点,在申万31个行业中排名第22名。 分析师:刘兴文 SAC 执业证书编号: 截至2024年6月28日,近两周申万电力设备行业的6个二级板块均下跌, 光伏设备板块下跌12.22%,风电设备板块板块下跌9.75%,电网设备板 块下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [23]. Core Insights - The computer industry index has seen a cumulative decline of 5.28% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 first-level industries [7][8]. - The report highlights the launch of Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT and Pangu Model 5.0, which are expected to accelerate the development of the native Harmony ecosystem and create investment opportunities in the related supply chain [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Review - The computer sector has experienced a cumulative decline of 6.61% in June, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.31 percentage points, and a year-to-date decline of 24.88%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.77 percentage points [7][8]. 2. Valuation Situation - As of June 28, 2024, the SW computer sector's PE TTM (excluding negative values) is 33.88 times, which is at the 3.79% percentile for the past five years and 1.97% percentile for the past ten years [13]. 3. Industry News - Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT was officially launched, featuring a complete self-developed stack and a 30% performance improvement [15][19]. - The Pangu Model 5.0 has been upgraded across three major aspects, supporting a range of applications from mobile to enterprise-level tasks [15][19]. - The generative AI software market is projected to grow by 124% this year, indicating strong demand in the sector [16]. 4. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include the acquisition plans by Guoneng Rixin and the patent certifications received by various subsidiaries of Siwei Tuxin, indicating ongoing innovation and expansion in the sector [17][18]. 5. Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the potential of Huawei's new products to empower various vertical applications, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities within the Harmony ecosystem [19]. 6. Recommended Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies like GuoDian YunTong, ShenZhou Digital, and Wanji Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in the domestic computing and smart transportation sectors [20].