超配（维持） 负债端景气延续，资产端驱动估值修复 深 度 研 究 保险业深度报告 2025 年 10 月 23 日 分析师：李嘉俊 寿险将继续延续景气增长。预计在"报行合一"以及下调预定利率的背 景下，险企有效控制渠道费用率，减轻成本压力，叠加产品结构优化与 代理人产能提升将直接带动NBVM的提升，助推NBV延续增长态势。在低 利率环境下，分红险的"保底+分红"价值更加凸显，各寿险公司主打 产品或将逐步从增额终身寿险切换为分红险，有利于险企更好地应对利 率下行周期资产配置的压力和投资收益波动，对分散部分利差损风险也 有积极意义。展望下半年，8月预定利率下调前触发"炒停售"小高峰， 负债端延续景气增长，难成估值拖累，而估值的抬升幅度主要取决于资 产端的修复机会，重点关注长端利率、权益市场的表现。 行 业 研 究 产险中非车险或成新动能。非车险市场包含健康险、农险、责任险等众 多种类，其潜在客户群体从个人到企业更为广泛，经济发展与创新动能 也将带动非车险市场发展，具备更大的发展潜力与空间。近年来行业非 车险保费占比稳步提升，具备更大的发展潜力与空间。此外，国家金融 监管总局进一步明确非车险端的"报行合一"管控，有 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 23 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天弱势震荡，三大指数盘中翻红后均出现回落 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3913.76 | -0.07% | -2.57 | | | 深证成指 | 12996.61 | -0.62% | -80.71 | | | 沪深 300 | 4592.57 | -0.33% | -15.30 | | | 创业板 | 3059.32 | -0.79% | -24.40 | | | 科创 50 | 1405.41 | -0.06% | -0.91 | | | 北证 50 | 1471.07 | 0.87% | 12.65 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 3900 points, with a significant increase of 1.36% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.06%, while the ChiNext Index surged by 3.02% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include Communication (4.90%), Electronics (3.50%), and Construction Decoration (2.36%) [3] - The bottom-performing sectors include Coal (-1.02%) and Food & Beverage (0.23%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with major indices rising over 1% and a notable increase in market participation [4] - New policy financial tools have been rapidly deployed, with a total of 1893.5 billion yuan allocated to support major economic provinces, potentially driving total project investments of 2.8 trillion yuan [4] - The report anticipates continued economic recovery in the fourth quarter, supported by policy measures and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may attract foreign capital [4] - It is suggested to maintain flexible positions and adjust holdings based on sector performance and valuation [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 36.20% for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 283.07 billion yuan, a 9.28% increase [5]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of 104.19 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.90% year-on-year growth and a 10.62% quarter-on-quarter increase, with net profit for the quarter at 18.55 billion yuan, up 41.21% year-on-year [5]. - The company is experiencing strong cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 80.66 billion yuan, a 19.60% increase year-on-year, and cash reserves of 324.24 billion yuan, up 22.51% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 25.80%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.37%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.22%. The net margin was 19.13%, up 4.12% year-on-year and 0.54% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - Research and development expenses for the first three quarters were 15.07 billion yuan, a 15.26% increase year-on-year, indicating a commitment to technological innovation [5]. Capacity and Expansion - The company has a strong order backlog with contract liabilities of 40.68 billion yuan, a 79.58% increase year-on-year, and is expanding its production capacity significantly [5]. - Capital expenditures for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 30.09 billion yuan, a 41.47% increase year-on-year, with ongoing projects in both domestic and international locations [5]. Future Outlook - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 15.03 yuan and 18.55 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24 and 20 [7]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in lithium batteries, benefiting from strong demand and a resilient profit margin, with expectations for continued rapid growth as new capacity comes online [5].

证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 21 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股全天缩量震荡，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3863.89 | 0.63% | 24.14 | | | 深证成指 | 12813.21 | 0.98% | 124.27 | | | 沪深 300 | 4538.22 | 0.53% | 23.99 | | | 创业板 | 2993.45 | 1.98% | 58.09 | | | 科创 50 | 1367.90 | 0.35% | 4.73 | | | 北证 50 | 1429.28 | -0.25% | -3.59 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 3.21% | 有色金属 ...

增持（首次） 国内血液净化行业龙头企业 2025 年 10 月 20 日 医药生物行业 分析师：谢雄雄 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523110002 电话：0769-22110925 邮箱： xiexiongxiong@dgzq.com.cn 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 深 度 研 究 公 司 研 究 证 券 研 威高血净（603014）深度报告 | 主要数据 2025 年 10 月 | 17 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） 38.61 | | | | 总市值（亿元） 161.29 | | | | 总股本（亿股） 4.18 | | | | 流通股本（亿股）0.38 | | | | ROE(TTM) 6.91% | | | | 12 月最高价（元）42.66 | | | | 12 月最低价（元）35.00 | | | 股价走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 究 报 告 ◼ 公司专注于血液净化医用制品的研发、生产和销售。 ...

买入（维持） 收入保持较快增长 公 海大集团（002311）2025 年三季报点评 2025 年 10 月 20 日 投资要点： 司 点 农林牧渔行业 事件：公司发布了2025年三季报。公司2025年前三季度实现总营业收入960.94 亿元，同比增长13.24%；实现归母净利润41.42亿元，同比增长14.31%；实现 扣非后归母净利润41.77亿元，同比增长18.71%。业绩符合预期。 评 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340513040002 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 点评： 投资建议：预计公司2025—2026年EPS分别为3.07元和3.47元，对应PE 分别为20倍和18倍。公司是国内饲料龙头，持续推进核心能力建设、规 模扩张及国际化战略，竞争优势有望不断增强。维持对公司的"买入" 评级。 风险提示：竞争加剧、原材料价格波动、汇率波动、国际化战略推进不 及预期等风险。 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq. ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant inflow of 34 billion yuan into dividend low-volatility ETFs, indicating a divergence in fund allocation as investors seek both offensive and defensive positions in the market [2][10][16] - Gold and silver have shown strong performance, with silver futures rising by 7.15% and gold futures achieving a record nine consecutive weekly gains, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets [4][9] - The average weekly return for commodity ETFs was notably high at 9.05%, while stock and cross-border ETFs experienced an average decline of over 3% [4][10] Group 2 - In the stock ETF segment, traditional energy and banking sectors have shown resilience, with the banking sector experiencing its first significant weekly gain since early July [13][16] - The report suggests that investors should consider reallocating to new economy sectors such as artificial intelligence and robotics during market adjustments, while also recognizing seasonal opportunities in high-dividend coal stocks [13][16] - The bond ETF segment saw a net outflow of 138.97 billion yuan, with convertible bond ETFs underperforming due to pressure from equity funds, while long-term interest rate bonds showed stronger performance [17][19] Group 3 - The analysis of financing and margin trading indicates a split in high-risk leveraged funds, with some betting on safe-haven assets like gold and others on technology sectors supported by loose monetary policy [20][21] - The report emphasizes that the divergence in fund flows between recession and growth bets is expected to converge, depending on economic recovery or recession risks [20]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a period of volatility and adjustment, with the ChiNext index leading the decline [1] - On October 20, 2025, major indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.95% to 3839.76, the Shenzhen Component down 3.04% to 12688.94, and the ChiNext down 3.36% to 2935.37 [2] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors showed resilience, with the banking sector performing relatively well, while the electric power equipment and electronics sectors faced significant declines [3][4] - The top-performing sectors included banking (-0.32%), transportation (-0.53%), and textiles and apparel (-0.61%), while the weakest sectors were electric power equipment (-4.99%) and electronics (-4.17%) [3] Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain under pressure due to weak economic data and a new policy waiting period, with attention on upcoming political meetings and economic policy directions [4][7] - Key events to watch include the Fourth Plenary Session from October 20 to 23, 2025, discussions on the "14th Five-Year Plan," and potential meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders [7] - Investment focus should be on defensive sectors like finance and coal, as well as low-positioned sectors such as food and beverage, while also considering third-quarter earnings reports and industries benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7]

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The banking sector is seen as a safe haven amid rising market uncertainties, with high dividend yield assets becoming increasingly attractive [1][41] - The securities sector is benefiting from a surge in trading volumes and increased stamp duty revenues, indicating strong performance in upcoming quarterly reports [1][43] - The insurance sector is experiencing significant growth in investment income and new business value, driven by increased equity market exposure and favorable policy support [1][45] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of October 16, 2025, the banking index increased by 5.53%, the securities index decreased by 0.57%, and the insurance index rose by 6.27%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.48% [11] - Among the sub-sectors, Chongqing Bank (+15.90%), GF Securities (+8.98%), and New China Life Insurance (+12.21%) showed the best performance [11] Valuation Situation - As of October 16, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.73, with state-owned banks at 0.79, joint-stock banks at 0.62, city commercial banks at 0.73, and rural commercial banks at 0.65 [22] - The securities sector's PB ratio is 1.59, indicating potential for valuation recovery [24] - Insurance companies' price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios are as follows: New China Life (0.74), China Pacific Insurance (0.59), Ping An (0.69), and China Life (0.72) [25] Recent Market Indicators - As of October 16, 2025, the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is 2.0%, and the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) are 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively [29] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market is 22,359.31 billion, showing a decrease of 13.57% [33] - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [41] Company Announcements - New China Life Insurance expects a net profit of 29.986 billion to 34.122 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 65% [45] - Shanghai Bank announced a cash dividend of 0.30 yuan per share, totaling 4.263 billion yuan [41]