2025 年 5 月 29 日 军贸规模增长可期 北交所专题报告 0% 19/09 19/11 20/01 20/03 20/05 20/07 分析师：吕子炜 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522040001 电话：0769-23320059 邮箱： lvziwei@dgzq.com.cn 行业指数走势 -20% 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 相关报告 20% 40% 投资要点： ◼ 关注2家军工行业相关企业。 创远信科：公司的主营业务是研发射频通信测试仪器和提供整体测 试解决方案。2024年，公司归母净利润为0.12亿元，同比下降 62.90%；2025年一季度，公司归母净利润为0.06亿元，同比增长 244.81%。公司2025年一季度业绩实现大幅增长。 星辰科技：公司的主营业务是随动控制总成、伺服驱动器、伺服电 机等装备自动化及智能化产品的研发、生产、销售。2024年，公司 归母净利润为0.16亿元，同比增长26.24%；2025年一季度，公司归 母净利润为0.06亿元，同比增长18.44%。公司业绩持续增长。 ◼ 风险提示。军贸市场需求低于预期；产能不及预期风险；市场竞争 加剧的风险。 北 ...

半导体行业 | 事 件 点 评 半导体行业 超配 半导体行业事件点评 （维持） 原厂推动减产+AI 需求刺激，存储价格有望上涨 刘梦麟（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340521070002） | | --- | | 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱：liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn | | 2025 年 5 月 29 日 | | 陈伟光（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340520060001） | | 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱：chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn | | 行 事件： 业 | | 事件一：据财联社《科创板日报》5月20日援引《台湾工商时报》报道，五大NAND原厂同步减产，供 研 | | 给面收缩，助攻内存市场行情，根据调查，全球市占前五大NAND Flash制造商，包括三星、SK海力士、 究 | | 美光、铠侠与威腾，皆在2025年上半年启动减产计划，幅度在10%～15%，以调节供过于求的市场结构。 | | 预计第二季存储器价格，出现优于预期的反弹走势。 | | 事件二：据财联社26日援引集邦咨询调查，以北美大厂为主的云端服务业者(CSP)持续加强AI投资 ...

市场全天窄幅震荡，三大指数小幅下跌 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3339.93 | -0.02% | -0.76 | | | 深证成指 | 10003.27 | -0.26% | -25.85 | | | 沪深 300 | 3836.24 | -0.08% | -3.16 | | | 创业板 | 1985.38 | -0.31% | -6.26 | | | 科创 50 | 970.64 | -0.23% | -2.28 | | | 北证 50 | 1378.23 | -1.39% | -19.41 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纺织服饰 | 1.17% | 基础化工 | -0.79% | 医疗废物处理 | 2.66% | 环氧 ...

电力设备及新能源行业 事件：公司发布了2024年年报及2025年一季报。 点评： 买入（维持） 2025Q1 盈利环比改善，业绩扭亏为盈 公 司 点 评 福莱特（601865）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 2025 年 5 月 28 日 投资要点： 分析师：刘兴文 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522050001 电话：0769-22119416 邮箱： liuxingwen@dgzq.com.cn S0340523080001 电话：0769-22110925 邮箱： suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn | 主要数据 2025 | 年 | 5 月 | 27 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | | 14.64 | | | | 总市值（亿元） | | 343.00 | | | | 总股本(亿股) | | 23.43 | | | | 流通股本(亿股) | | 19.00 | | | | ROE（TTM） | | 14.50% | | | | 12月最高价(元) | | 30.13 | | | | 12月最低价(元) | | 14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the drone industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of registered drone users and flight hours is increasing, with a focus on low-altitude economic development in various regions [2][4]. - As of the end of 2024, there are 19979 units with drone operation qualifications, and the total number of registered drone users is 1.619 million, an increase of 804,000 from the previous year, with personal users accounting for 1.521 million [4]. - The total number of registered drones reached 2.17 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 98.5% [4]. - A total of 273,300 drone operator licenses have been issued, with 247,300 being valid [4]. - In 2024, the cumulative flight hours for drones reached 26.667 million hours, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.4% [4]. - Multiple regions are focusing on the development of low-altitude economies, with initiatives in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Sichuan aimed at enhancing infrastructure and support for drone technology [4]. Market Potential - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with the market size exceeding 500 billion yuan in 2023, expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, and potentially surpassing 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with a forecast of 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035 [4]. Investment Strategy - Communication infrastructure is deemed essential for the development of low-altitude economies, particularly in supporting drone communication needs and ground monitoring requirements [4]. - Relevant investment targets include companies like Huace Navigation (300627.SZ) [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The launch of the real-time video call feature by ByteDance's Doubao AI is expected to drive demand for upstream computing power and accelerate the penetration of AI glasses [2][5]. - The integration of video call and internet search capabilities in Doubao represents a significant advancement in multi-modal interaction technology, enhancing user experience through real-time Q&A based on visual and language inputs [5]. - The demand for AI computing power is projected to grow rapidly due to the increasing complexity and data scale of AI models, particularly with video AI models requiring significantly more computational resources compared to text and voice models [5]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - Recently, ByteDance's Doubao AI launched a real-time video call feature that allows users to interact with the AI based on real-world scenes, enhancing the user experience with real-time information retrieval from the internet [3][5]. Technology Development - The video call model signifies a shift towards commercializing multi-modal perception technology, particularly in the visual interaction domain, which is expected to disrupt traditional content creation processes [5]. Market Implications - The introduction of the video model is anticipated to accelerate the adoption of AI glasses and other smart terminals, with projections indicating that by 2035, AI+AR smart glasses will replace traditional smart glasses, achieving a penetration rate of 70% and global sales reaching 1.4 billion units [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Haiguang Information (688041), Cambrian (688256), Hengxuan Technology (688608), Lexin Technology (688018), and Rockchip (603893) as potential beneficiaries of the increased demand for AI chips and SoC chips due to the launch of Doubao's video call model [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the national economy continues to show a positive trend, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter. This economic growth is driving an increase in electricity demand, with total electricity consumption reaching 31,566 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [4] - In the first four months, the newly added power generation capacity was 14,052 megawatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 58.21%. The majority of this new capacity came from wind and solar power, indicating a shift towards green and low-carbon energy development [4][5] - The report suggests focusing on renewable energy companies such as Longyuan Power (001289) and Three Gorges Energy (600905) due to the rapid growth in clean energy generation [5] Summary by Sections Electricity Demand - In the first four months, electricity consumption by various sectors was as follows: primary industry 42.4 billion kilowatt-hours (up 10.0%), secondary industry 20,497 billion kilowatt-hours (up 2.3%), tertiary industry 5,856 billion kilowatt-hours (up 6.0%), and urban and rural residents' electricity consumption 4,789 billion kilowatt-hours (up 2.5%) [4] Power Generation Capacity - The newly added power generation capacity breakdown is as follows: thermal power 1,298 megawatts (9.2%), hydropower 265 megawatts (1.9%), wind power 1,996 megawatts (14.2%), and solar power 10,493 megawatts (74.7%) [4] Industrial Power Generation - The industrial power generation for the first four months was 29,839.6 billion kilowatt-hours, with the following year-on-year changes: thermal power -4.1%, hydropower +2.2%, wind power +10.9%, nuclear power +12.7%, and solar power +19.5% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company has received approval for its asset restructuring, which is expected to enhance its asset scale and operational performance [1]. - The restructuring will lead to a significant increase in the company's total assets by 18.37% and an expected increase in operating revenue by 25.07% and net profit by 5.93% based on 2024 data [3][4]. - The company is one of the largest listed power generation companies in China, with a current installed capacity of 59.8186 million kilowatts, which will increase to 75.8786 million kilowatts post-restructuring [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in 12 provinces and cities across China, showcasing a diverse range of power generation assets and a well-established industrial chain [3]. Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.64 yuan, 0.69 yuan, and 0.73 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9, 9, and 8 [4]. Market Position - The restructuring is anticipated to strengthen the company's market share in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Guangxi regions, further solidifying its competitive advantage [3].

Group 1: Copper Industry - The copper price has shown a strong upward trend since early 2025, driven by expectations of tight copper supply and resilient demand from the renewable energy sector [6][14][24] - China's refined copper production is expected to maintain a high level due to significant contributions from recycled copper and improvements in smelting technology, although the growth momentum may weaken due to low smelting fees and tightening raw material supply [24][29] - Demand for copper is increasingly driven by the renewable energy sector, with significant growth in electric power electronics and electric vehicles, which are expected to continue to boost copper consumption [35][43] Group 2: Aluminum Industry - The aluminum price has experienced fluctuations, initially rising and then stabilizing, with expectations of strong demand from the renewable energy sector and gradual recovery in the real estate market [54][66] - The supply side of the aluminum industry is expected to remain sufficient, with a focus on the impact of new aluminum ore production and the implementation of the "Aluminum Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan" [64][70] - Demand for aluminum is shifting, with strong growth in the automotive and renewable energy sectors, while traditional demand from construction is under pressure [84][91]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3346.84, down 0.05% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw declines of 0.41% and 0.80% respectively, indicating a general market pullback [1][3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Media (up 2.14%), Computer (up 1.39%), and Environmental Protection (up 1.22%) [2] - Conversely, the Automotive sector faced a decline of 1.78%, and the Pharmaceutical sector decreased by 1.08% [2] Concept Index Trends - Notable concept indices that performed well included Controlled Nuclear Fusion (up 5.14%) and E-sports (up 3.30%) [2][3] - In contrast, the Generic Drug Consistency Evaluation and Recombinant Protein concepts saw declines of 1.55% and 1.53% respectively [2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a continued range-bound market with potential for a recovery pattern, despite recent adjustments [5] - It suggests focusing on sectors such as Finance, Public Utilities, Retail, Food and Beverage, Non-ferrous Metals, and TMT for potential investment opportunities [5] Policy Developments - A recent action plan was issued by multiple government departments to accelerate the development of intelligent supply chains, aiming for a robust and resilient supply chain system by 2030 [4]