DONGXING SECURITIES 铜行业深度报告(I)：矿端供给增 速或仍显现阶段性偏刚性特征 | --- | |---------------------| | 2024 年 08 月 16 日 | | / 维持 | | 深度报告 | 分析师 张天丰 电话：021-25102914 邮箱：zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480520100001 投资摘要： 全球铜矿供应增速仍显现刚性特征。铜矿供给经历了 2017-2022 全球铜矿供给增速的持续下行叠加 2023 年至今供给端的扰动共振令矿端供应增速依然处于较低水平，至 2023 年全球铜矿供给年增长率仅 1.18%，较 2022 年下滑 2.14pct，显示供给的偏刚性。通过观察矿企的产量指引及分析前期资本开支计 划，以及对可能扰动事件的预估，我们预计 2023-2026 年的铜矿年均增速或降至 1.93%，较 2017-2022 降 速增长周期持续下降 0.15 个百分点，供应缺口或呈趋势性放大。此外，受益于 2022 年后矿端资本开支高 峰的显现，我们认为 2028 年左右全球铜矿产量或呈有效的底部抬升。 全球铜冶炼 ...

DONGXING SECURITIES 铜行业深度报告(I)：矿端供给增 速或仍显现阶段性偏刚性特征 | --- | |---------------------| | 2024 年 08 月 16 日 | | / 维持 | | 深度报告 | 分析师 张天丰 电话：021-25102914 邮箱：zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480520100001 投资摘要： 全球铜矿供应增速仍显现刚性特征。铜矿供给经历了 2017-2022 全球铜矿供给增速的持续下行叠加 2023 年至今供给端的扰动共振令矿端供应增速依然处于较低水平，至 2023 年全球铜矿供给年增长率仅 1.18%，较 2022 年下滑 2.14pct，显示供给的偏刚性。通过观察矿企的产量指引及分析前期资本开支计 划，以及对可能扰动事件的预估，我们预计 2023-2026 年的铜矿年均增速或降至 1.93%，较 2017-2022 降 速增长周期持续下降 0.15 个百分点，供应缺口或呈趋势性放大。此外，受益于 2022 年后矿端资本开支高 峰的显现，我们认为 2028 年左右全球铜矿产量或呈有效的底部抬升。 全球铜冶炼 ...

平安银行（000001.SZ）：净利润保 持正增长，中期分红方案落地 2024 年 8 月 19 日 强烈推荐/维持 平安银行 公司报告 ——2024 年半年报点评 事件：8 月 15 日，平安银行公布 2024 年半年报，24H1 实现营收、拨备前利 润、净利润 771.3 亿、552.4 亿、258.8 亿，分别同比-13%、-14.1%、+1.9%。 年化加权平均 ROE 为 11.88%，同比下降 0.77pct。点评如下： 营收预期内承压、拨备反哺利润正增，中期分红比例 18.4%。 收入端：净利息收入、中收承压，其他非息收入贡献进一步提升。24H1 平安 银行营收同比 -13%，降幅环比 Q1 收窄 1pct；主要贡献来自其他非息收入。 具体来看：① 净利息收入同比 -21.6%，降幅与 Q1 基本持平。主要是净息差 持续收窄、信贷规模增速进一步放缓。24H1 净息差为 1.96%，环比 Q1 下降 5bp。6 月末贷款余额同比增速为-0.7%，环比下降 2pct。② 手续费及佣金净 收入同比 -20.6%，降幅环比 Q1 扩大 1.5pct。其中，代理及委托中收同比下 降 40.6%，主要是受银 ...

-9.9%。 东兴晨报 P1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------|-------|--------------------------------|----------| | 分析师推荐 | A 股港股市场 | 2024 | 年 8 月 16 | 日星期五 | | 【东兴地产】房地产 70 城房价数据点评： 7 月各线城市住宅价格环比继续下 | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 % | | 滑，二三线降幅大于一线（ 20240815 ） | 上证指数 | | 2,879.43 | 0.07 | | | 深证成指 | | 8,349.87 | -0.24 | | 2024 年 7 月份， 70 个大中城市中，各线城市住宅销售价格环比继续下降，二 三线降幅大于一 ...

Group 1: Electronic Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of EDA tools in integrated circuit design and manufacturing, highlighting the increasing complexity and risks associated with advanced process nodes such as 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm [2][4] - The global EDA market is projected to grow from $17.72 billion in 2024 to $26.59 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.46%, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - Investment recommendations include companies like Huada Empyrean and GY Electronics, which have shown significant progress in EDA tools [4] Group 2: Aluminum Industry - China's bauxite resources are concentrated in a few provinces, with significant structural supply shrinkage observed, particularly in Henan and Shanxi, leading to increased prices and reduced operating rates in the alumina industry [6][7] - In 2023, China's bauxite imports exceeded 140 million tons, indicating a growing reliance on foreign sources, with Guinea and Australia being the primary suppliers [7] - The report highlights the potential for structural optimization in the global bauxite market, which may sustain high industry prosperity [5][6] Group 3: Communication Industry - The report identifies Xinke Mobile as a rising star in global mobile communication, leveraging its early advantages in satellite internet and significant contributions to 5G standardization [8] - The company has successfully validated its satellite internet products, indicating strong potential for future growth in the sector [8] Group 4: Food and Beverage Industry - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 36.966 billion yuan in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.95%, driven by price increases and strong sales of series liquor [9][10] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of at least 75% from 2024 to 2026, enhancing market confidence [10] Group 5: Machinery Industry - The machinery industry is currently experiencing low valuations, with the mechanical equipment index down 16.30% year-to-date, indicating potential for valuation recovery [11][12] - The report suggests focusing on segments like compressors and machine tools, which are expected to benefit from equipment upgrades and energy-saving policies [12] Group 6: Non-Bank Financial Industry - The report anticipates that various favorable policies will gradually manifest, improving investor sentiment and capital market returns [13][14] - The focus is on the potential for mergers and acquisitions within the industry, particularly among leading firms [14] Group 7: Electric New Industry - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a slight recovery in prices in the second half of the year, driven by capacity reduction and the introduction of new technologies like 0BB [20][21] - The report highlights investment opportunities in photovoltaic auxiliary materials and energy storage sectors, particularly for companies like Yubang New Materials and Ningde Times [20][21]

/ 航空机场 7 月数据点评：旺季运力 投放明显增长，客座率持平 19 年 事件：上市航司发布 7 月运营数据，随着行业向旺季转换，国内与国际航线客 座率都企稳回升。 国内航线：旺季到来，运力投放大幅增长，但客座率提升有限 国内市场方面，7 月行业正式进入旺季，需求不足的影响明显消退，航司开始 充分释放运力。7 月各航司的国内航线运力投放较 6 月都有很明显的提升，行 业整体的环比增长达到约 19%。与 19 年对比，今年 7 月国内航线运力投放相 当于 19 年同期的 130%左右，而 3-6 月基本在 19 年 120%上下浮动。因此不 管从同比还是环比口径，都可以看出进入旺季后航司的运力投放较为积极。分 航司看，三大航运力投放环比增速较为接近，在 16-19%的区间；海航 7 月的 运力投放环比增长 28%，投放策略比较激进；中型航司中，春秋增速约 22%， 吉祥则增速较低，为 13%。 客座率方面，7 月上市航司整体客座率基本持平 19 年同期，环比 6 月微增 0.1pct。分航司看，吉祥、春秋与海航客座率环比有一定的提升，国航则环比 下降 0.7pct。同比 19 年，海航与国航客座率下降较多，东 ...

农林牧渔行业：7 月均价继续抬升， 出栏量环比提升 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：7 月生猪均价继续抬升。农业农村部监测数据显示，2024 年 7 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 43.92 元/公斤、18.65 元/公斤和 29.09 元/公 斤，同比变化分别为 37.77%、30.01%和 24.41%，环比变化分别为 0.79%、 2.78%和 2.77%。供应端：前期能繁去化调减带来供应收缩，7 月大范围降雨 天气影响了局部地区生猪调运，养殖端看涨情绪较强，叠加二育入场，供给端 挺价支撑价格走高。消费端：需求较为清淡，屠宰企业对于高价猪接受能力较 差， 7 月生猪屠宰开工率持续回落至 23.79%，猪价上涨主要由供给端推动。 产能变化趋势：三方数据来看，7 月能繁母猪存栏量环比继续回升，涌益和钢 联样本数据分别回升 1.79%和 1.11%，产能增幅环比有所扩大。生猪价格大幅 抬升，二元母猪价格仅有小幅抬升，行业补栏母猪情绪仍偏谨慎。 后市周期预判：能繁母猪存栏量自 23 年下半年开始加速去化并持续到 24 年 4 月，产能端的收缩预计在下半年将持续影响生猪出栏，叠加旺季需求边际改善， 供需格 ...

房地产 70 城房价数据点评：7 月各 线城市住宅价格环比继续下滑，二 三线降幅大于一线 2024 年 8 月 15 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 2024 年 7 月份，70 个大中城市中，各线城市住宅销售价格环比继续下降，二 三线降幅大于一线；同比来看，一线城市二手住宅跌幅大于二三线。 环比：7 月各线城市住宅销售价格环比继续下降，二三线降幅大于一线。 新房：7 月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.5%，前值为 -0.5%。其中，北京、上海、深圳、广州当月环比增速分别为-0.5%、0.2%、 -0.9%、-0.8%。 二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.6%，前值为-0.7%；三线城市新 建商品住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.7%，前值为-0.6%。 二手房：7 月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.5%，前值为-0.4%。 其中，北京、上海、深圳、广州当月环比增速分别为 0%、0.1%、-1.2%、-0.9%。 二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.8%，前值为-0.9%；三线城市二手住 宅销售价格环比增速为-0.8%，前值为-0.9%。 同比：7 月各线城市新建商品住宅 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - In July 2024, new home sales saw an expanded year-on-year decline, with the average sales price also decreasing [2][3] - For the first seven months of 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 18.6% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount fell by 24.3% [2][8] - The average sales price per square meter for new homes dropped by 6.9% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 4.8% in July [2][8] - Development investment remains weak, with a cumulative new construction area down by 23.2% year-on-year and a cumulative development investment amount decreasing by 10.2% [2][8] - Funding for real estate development has also contracted, with a cumulative funding decrease of 21.3% year-on-year [3][8] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In July 2024, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 15.4% year-on-year, and the sales amount fell by 18.5% [2][8] - The average sales price for new homes in July was 0.98 million yuan per square meter, reflecting a 4.8% decline compared to the previous year [2][8] Development Investment - The cumulative new construction area for the first seven months of 2024 was 43,733 million square meters, down 23.2% year-on-year [2][8] - The cumulative development investment amount was 60,877 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.2% decrease year-on-year [2][8] Funding Situation - Cumulative funding for real estate development enterprises was 61,901 billion yuan, down 21.3% year-on-year [3][8] - Domestic loans showed a smaller decline of 3.8% year-on-year, while personal mortgage loans decreased by 34.0% [3][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that core cities, where demand has been suppressed, may see an increase in second-hand home transactions, benefiting quality real estate companies like China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China [3][8] - The increase in second-hand home supply and price advantages over new homes are expected to sustain transaction activity [3][8]

东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------|-----------|--------------------------------|----------| | 分析师推荐 | A 股港股市场 | 2024 年 | 8 月 15 | 日星期四 | | 【东兴策略】外部冲击影响短期情绪 静待 A 股底部拐点（ 20240814 ） | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 % | | 外部市场调整影响短期情绪。 8 月 5 日全球股市出现调整，市场预期美国衰 | 上证指数 | | 2,877.36 | 0.94 | | 退和日本央行加息是主要推手。从美国来看，短期经济数据超出市场预期， | 深证成指 | | 8, ...