行 业 研 究 2024 年 9 月 24 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 资料来源：同花顺、东兴证券研究所 行业基本资料 占比% 股票家数 100 2.2% 行业市值(亿元) 10388.22 1.37% 流通市值(亿元) 7791.18 1.28% 行业平均市盈率 46.82 / 分析师：程诗月 010-66555458 chengsy_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号： S1480519050006 农林牧渔行业：8 月均价冲高回落， 能繁存栏小幅下行 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：8 月猪价先涨后跌，均价继续抬升。农业农村部监测数据显示， 2024年8月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为44.27元/公斤、20.35元/公斤和31.21 元/公斤，同比变化分别为 34.75%、19.57%和 17.07%，环比变化分别为 0.79%、 9.10%和 7.27%。供应端：8 月上旬生猪价格表现强势，存栏生猪体重不大， 养殖端压栏挺价情绪较重，市场猪源供应有限。下旬猪价回调，养殖端被迫降 价出栏，猪源供应有所增多。消费端：淡季需求难以支撑猪价持续上涨，高价 猪走货不畅，随猪价回调和天气转 ...

行 业 研 究 执业证书编号： S1480521080001 房地产行业政策点评：央行宣布降 低存量房贷利率和二套房首付比， 金融政策支持力度大幅加强 2024 年 9 月 24 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 事件：国务院新闻办公室 9 月 24 日上午 9 时举行新闻发布会，发布会上，中 国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布，1）引导商业银行将存量房贷利率降至新发放贷 款利率的附近，预计平均降幅大约在 0.5 个百分点左右。2）将全国层面的二 套房贷款最低首付比例由当前的 25%下调到 15%。3）3000 亿元保障性住房 再贷款，中央银行资金的支持比例由原来的 60%提高到 100%，增强对银行和 收购主体的市场化激励。4）将年底前到期的经营性物业贷款和"金融 16 条" 这两项政策文件延期到 2026 年底。 点评： 1） 降低存量房贷利率有助于降低居民利息负担，一方面有助于减少提前还贷 现象和违规置换房贷的空间，提升居民消费信心；另一方面，也有望减少 二手房抛压，稳定楼市预期。 2） 统一首套房和二套房的房贷最低首付比例，二套房购房门槛得到大幅降 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the recent monetary policy adjustments, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, have met market expectations for easing, which is expected to support the banking sector [1][5] - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates is anticipated to have a neutral impact on banks, as it will alleviate early repayment pressures and stabilize the quality of loans [2][5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking sector comprises 48 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 113,618.8 billion yuan, representing 14.95% of the market [1] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the industry is 5.47 [1] Recent Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5 percentage point RRR cut, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, which is expected to ease funding pressures [1] - The main policy interest rate was reduced by 20 basis points to 1.5%, which is expected to lower the cost of financing for the real economy [1][2] Mortgage Rate Adjustments - The PBOC will guide banks to adjust existing mortgage rates down to levels close to new loan rates, with an expected average reduction of around 50 basis points [2] - This adjustment is projected to reduce annual interest expenses for households by approximately 150 billion yuan, promoting consumption and investment [2] Financial Policies - The extension of financial support policies for real estate companies is expected to alleviate cash flow pressures and stabilize the quality of real estate loans [5] - The report suggests that the banking sector should focus on high-dividend assets and banks with stable performance for investment opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][25]. Core Views - The company possesses autonomous and controllable R&D capabilities in core network technology, continuously investing in 5G communication network systems and satellite internet development, making it one of the few domestic companies with core network technology capabilities in satellite internet [2][11]. - The company is actively participating in the China Star Network low-orbit satellite core network project, which is crucial for the integration of satellite and terrestrial communication networks, positioning the company favorably in a rapidly growing market [2][14]. - The domestic satellite internet market requires technology to be autonomous and controllable, providing opportunities for the company as competitors like Ericsson and Nokia face restrictions [2][18]. Summary by Sections Core Network as an Important Component of Satellite Internet - The core network is a vital part of the satellite-ground integrated communication architecture, which includes terminal, wireless access network, bearer network, and core network [9]. - The satellite internet core network consists of both ground and satellite core networks, with the current focus on reducing latency and improving service efficiency through satellite-based data forwarding [9][18]. Participation in China Star Network Low-Orbit Satellite Project - The China Star Network, established with state-owned enterprises, is set to receive significant support for its development, enhancing the company's involvement in the project [14]. - The company won the bid for the prototype system project of the low-orbit satellite core network in 2022 and is involved in setting technical standards and system construction [2][17]. Growth Prospects for Core Network Business - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the domestic satellite internet market, with projected revenues of 1.02 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][25]. - The core network business is anticipated to see significant growth as the China Star Network progresses into regular launch phases, with a high gross margin expected due to the nature of software and R&D costs [18][19]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.02 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits of 9.21 million yuan, and a PE ratio of 303x [2][25]. - The financial outlook indicates a recovery from previous losses, with expectations of profitability starting in 2024 as operational efficiencies improve [21][25].

宏 观 研 究 2024 年 9 月 23 日 宏观经济 事件点评 美联储首次降息幅度略超预期 ——货币流动性跟踪 9.16-9.20 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 金融统计数据： 2024 年二季度末，我国金融业机构总资产为 480.64 万亿元，同比增长 7.0%，其中，银行业机构总资产为 433.10 万亿元， 同比增长 6.6%；证券业机构总资产为 13.75 万亿元，同比下降 0.1%；保险业机构总资产为 33.80 万亿元，同比增长 15.7%。 主要观点： 1、 美联储宣布降息 50bp，为 4 年来首次降息。 2、 美联储降息开启"全球央行周"，紧随其后，科威特，巴林，阿联酋，卡塔尔，南非等多个多家以及中国香港地区跟随降 息。 3、 本周全球股市回暖。 货币流动性复盘： 货币市场： 9 月 16-20 日，央行逆回购（7D）18024 亿，到期回笼 8845 亿，上周净投放为 9179 亿。（图 2） 资金价格上，DR001、DR007 均值分别为 1.87%、1.94%，较前一周（9 月 ...

行 业 研 究 2024 年 9 月 23 日 看好/维持 交通运输 行业报告 行业基本资料 占比% 股票家数 128 2.82% 行业市值(亿元) 28157.51 3.72% 流通市值(亿元) 24798.53 4.08% 行业平均市盈率 15.33 / 快递 8 月数据点评：单票收入降幅收窄， 圆通增速领跑 事件：8 月全国快递服务企业业务完成量 143.83 亿件，同比增长 19.4%，增速较 8 月的 22.2%环比下降。分类型看，8 月同城件业务量 增长 13.9%，异地件业务量增长 19.7%。 点评： 业务量增速略降，圆通增速领跑：8 月行业依旧处于淡季，快递业务量 较 7 月微增，但业务量同比增速回落至 20%以下。通达系三家上市公 司增速较上月有一定变化，此前增速一直处于行业均值附近的圆通，8 月业务量增速有明显提升，超过了申通与韵达。市场份额较去年同期 提升 1.2pct；申通和韵达份额分别提升 0.9pct 和 0.2pct。 价格竞争有所缓和，邮政局明确反内卷：价格方面，8 月行业价格竞争 有所缓和。单票价格环比提升 0.16 元至 7.93 元/票，同比降幅收窄至 10.8%。8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guoxuan High-Tech [4][14]. Core Views - Guoxuan High-Tech's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 16.794 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 271 million yuan, up 29.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is experiencing significant profit growth driven by energy storage contributions and an expansion in overseas markets alongside new product launches [1][2]. - The company has achieved a gross margin of 17.8% in the first half of 2024, benefiting from an increase in overseas business and enhanced profitability from energy storage [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Guoxuan High-Tech's main business revenue was 16.040 billion yuan, up 53.1% year-on-year, with the energy storage battery segment contributing 4.339 billion yuan, a 25.84% increase [1][2]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 1.9% and a non-recurring net profit margin of 0.3% for H1 2024, reflecting effective cost control [1][2]. Product and Market Expansion - The company has established four PACK production bases in Germany, the USA, Thailand, and Indonesia, enhancing its presence in major automotive markets [2][3]. - New products such as the all-solid-state "Jinshi Battery" and the 5C ultra-fast charging "G-Ke Battery" have been launched, aimed at meeting high-end customer demands [2][3]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 35.929 billion yuan, 43.464 billion yuan, and 50.066 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.111 billion yuan, 1.541 billion yuan, and 2.131 billion yuan [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the company's global strategy and technological advancements will continue to enhance its competitive position and profitability [2][6].

东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 黄金市场的定价逻辑已经发生质变。传统的纯金融属性定价方式显现弱化， 而商品供需属性的定价方式明显强化，黄金金融属性决定价格弹性而供需属 性决定价格韧性。 全球黄金新增供给增速已呈现强刚性特征。2013 年矿产金供给增速高点过后 显现趋势性下滑，至 2019 年受疫情影响该数据已出现近 7%的收缩。2014-2018 年均矿产量增速+2.9%，但 2019-2023 年均产量增速仅为 0.1%，2023 年全球 矿产金实际产量增速仅有 0.8%。从十年供给维度观察，近十年全球矿产金年 均产量仅维持在 3484 吨左右。考虑到矿产金供给占黄金供给总量约 75%，显 示全球黄金实际有效供给已经极为刚性。 全球黄金需求整体稳定，投资性需求已经成为黄金实物需求的新增长点。全 球黄金 2013-2023 十年间年均总需求量约 4653 万吨，增速维持均衡状态。从 需求品类观察，传统黄金需求如金饰类/金条类出现显著下滑，而投资类需求 如 ETF 及央行购金出现明显增长。由 2013 年至 2023 年，全球金饰及金条的 总需求量分别由 2735.3 吨及 ...

行 业 研 究 2024 年 9 月 23 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 股票家数 114 2.51% 行业市值(亿元) 10575.41 1.4% 流通市值(亿元) 9738.42 1.6% 行业平均市盈率 -22.64 / 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 分析师：陈刚 021-25102897 chen_gang@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号： S1480521080001 房地产周报 20240923: 新房销售继 续下行，最高法发文支持"白名单 项目"融资交付 近 5 个交易日 A 股地产板块表现强于大盘、H 股地产板块表现强于大盘。 A 股房地产指数(801180.SL)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为 7.78%，中证 A 股指数 (930903.CSI)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为 0.13%。A 股房地产板块近 5 个交易日 累计涨幅最高的 5 家公司为电子城(49.0%)、中交地产(35.8%)、海泰发展 (25.6%)、空港股份(24.0%)、渝开发(21.2%)。 H 股恒生地产及物业管理指数(HSPDM.HK)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为 8.69%， H 股恒生指数(HSI.H ...

行 业 研 究 传媒互联网&通信行业：中天科技中 标 85 万千瓦海上风电项目，长飞光 纤拟收购联营公司宝胜海缆 30%股 权 | --- | --- | |-----------|------------------------------| | | | | | 2024 年 9 月 23 日 | | 看好/维持 | | | | 通信 行业报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...