Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The home furnishing sector continues to recover, supported by national subsidies, while exports face pressure. Domestic real estate sales are on a downward trend, with May construction data down 22.0% year-on-year, suppressing natural demand for home furnishings. However, May retail sales for home furnishings increased by 25.6% year-on-year, driven by national subsidies [10][11] - In the textile and apparel sector, there is a slow recovery in domestic sales, with May retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. The apparel and home textile industry is expected to benefit from favorable policies, with a focus on quality brands like HLA and Fuanna [12] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - National subsidies continue to support home furnishing demand, despite a decline in real estate sales. In May, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, and sales revenue fell by 6.8% year-on-year. The overall support from national subsidies helps stabilize demand, with key companies showing low P/E ratios and high dividend willingness, making them attractive for investment [10][11] - Exports of home furnishings are declining, with May export values down 9.4% year-on-year. The adjustment of tariffs may accelerate the transfer of overseas production capacities for export companies, affecting domestic export data. The U.S. retail inventory levels are high, leading to a decrease in purchasing intentions [11] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing a slow recovery in domestic sales, with May retail sales of clothing and accessories increasing by 4.0% year-on-year. The industry is expected to benefit from policy support, with a focus on quality brands such as Anta and Li Ning. Domestic brands are accelerating their group and international expansion [12] - Textile exports from January to May increased by 2.5% year-on-year, while clothing exports slightly decreased by 0.5%. The export growth rate has slowed due to tariff impacts from the U.S. [12]

Key Points - The report highlights a significant increase in stamp duty from securities transactions, reaching 66.8 billion yuan from January to May, a year-on-year growth of 52.4% [2] - The People's Bank of China has launched a cross-border payment system to facilitate efficient remittance services between mainland China and Hong Kong, involving major banks from both regions [2][5] - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced over 3,200 private investment projects, with a total investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan, focusing on key sectors such as transportation, energy, and infrastructure [2] - The report notes a decline in the inventory of coking coal at steel mills and independent coking plants, indicating a potential increase in production of coke, pig iron, and crude steel [13][15] - In May, the production of coke reached 42.376 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.87% and a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [16] - The report indicates a downward trend in the prices of coking coal, with the comprehensive price index for Chinese coking coal reported at 1,168.88 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.76% from the previous month [13][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained for the next 3-6 months [4]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a business volume of 17.318 billion pieces in May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.2%. However, the growth rate has been gradually declining since March, attributed to a high base from the previous year [2][10]. - SF Express has shown significant growth, achieving a volume increase of 31.8% in May, which is notably higher than other listed companies in the industry. This growth is linked to SF's strategy of extending its services towards high-end e-commerce packages [2][14]. - The average single ticket revenue in the industry continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% in May. Intense price competition is evident, particularly among major players like Shentong, Yunda, and Yuantong, whose single ticket revenues have also seen declines [3][9][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In May, the total business volume for express delivery services reached 17.318 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 17.2%. The growth in same-city deliveries was 10.4%, while intercity deliveries grew by 18.0% [2][10]. - The industry growth rate has been slowing down since March, influenced by a high comparison base from the previous year [10]. 2. Business Volume - SF Express has outperformed the industry with a growth rate of 31.8% in May, significantly higher than its peers. Its market share increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][14]. - Among the major players, only Yuantong's growth exceeded the industry average, indicating a strong focus on market share [2][14]. 3. Revenue Trends - The average single ticket price in the industry saw a slight decline month-on-month in May, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. The single ticket revenues for Shentong, Yunda, and Yuantong fell by 3.0%, 5.4%, and 4.9% respectively [3][9][27]. - SF Express reported a 14.0% year-on-year decline in single ticket revenue, primarily due to an increase in e-commerce package volume [3][30]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The report suggests that the "price-for-volume" strategy is showing diminishing returns, indicating that the market for price-sensitive customers is becoming saturated. This could lead to a shift in the competitive dynamics of the industry [4][23]. - The report anticipates that the intensity of price competition will remain high in the short term, as industry leaders continue to seek market share through aggressive pricing strategies [4][42]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for companies to focus on service quality as a means of differentiation, particularly in the mid-to-high-end e-commerce segment. It recommends paying close attention to industry leaders such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, which are positioned to benefit from this trend [7][42].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as it is expected to outperform the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [16]. Core Insights - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) Growth Layer and the introduction of new policies signify a new phase in the development of the STAR Market, enhancing the direct financing capabilities for high-quality Sci-Tech enterprises [4][5]. - The report outlines five key requirements from the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to strengthen the STAR Market, including better support for unprofitable innovative companies, enhancing the linkage between equity and debt financing, and fostering a more open capital market ecosystem [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the STAR Market has become a primary platform for direct financing of new productivity in China, but the IPO pace has slowed down, which is correlated with the existing listing rules that restrict some quality enterprises from going public [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: STAR Market Development - The STAR Market has been pivotal in facilitating the listing and financing of numerous technology innovation companies over the past six years [4]. - Recent policy changes aim to accelerate the listing of high-quality unprofitable Sci-Tech enterprises, thereby improving market liquidity and attracting new capital [4][5]. Section 2: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests implementing six reform measures, including introducing a pre-review mechanism for IPOs of quality technology companies and expanding the applicability of the fifth listing standard to more frontier technology sectors [3]. - It also highlights the importance of nurturing patient and long-term capital, encouraging participation from social security funds and insurance capital in private equity investments [2][3]. Section 3: Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that the expansion of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions in the STAR Market will positively impact the investment banking sector, leading to a recovery in investment banking revenues [5]. - It is recommended to focus on leading brokerage firms that are well-positioned to benefit from the competitive landscape of the STAR Market due to their resource advantages and pricing capabilities [8].

Investment Rating - The oil and petrochemical industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 3-6 months [4] Core Insights - In June, Brent, WTI, and ESPO crude oil prices saw significant month-on-month increases, with Brent crude futures settling at $74.23 per barrel, up 11.41%, and WTI at $72.98 per barrel, up 14.63% [1][8] - OPEC and domestic crude oil spot prices decreased in May, with OPEC's price at $63.62 per barrel, down 7.77% [1][16] - U.S. refinery utilization rates increased to 94.30%, up 4.10 percentage points month-on-month, while gasoline supply rose to 9,170 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 4.28% [2][29] - U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5,928.80 thousand barrels per day in May, down 1.81% from the previous month, while China's crude oil imports decreased by 146 thousand tons, a decline of 3.04% [2][48] Summary by Sections 1. Crude Oil Prices - Brent crude futures settled at $74.23 per barrel, up $7.60 from the previous month, a rise of 11.41% [8] - WTI crude futures settled at $72.98 per barrel, up $9.31, a rise of 14.63% [8] - ESPO crude spot price reached $67.56 per barrel, up 10.57% [19] 2. Supply and Demand - OPEC crude oil production increased to 27,022 thousand barrels per day in May, up 1.17% month-on-month [22] - U.S. refinery crude oil production rose to 16.64 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.03% month-on-month [25] - U.S. gasoline supply increased to 9,170 thousand barrels per day, up 376 thousand barrels per day, a rise of 4.28% [29] 3. Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventory rose to 1,643,559 thousand barrels, an increase of 1.59% month-on-month [37] - U.S. gasoline inventory increased to 229,804 thousand barrels, up 2.27% [46] - U.S. distillate fuel oil inventory rose to 108,884 thousand barrels, up 5.15% [39] 4. Imports and Exports - China's crude oil imports in May were 4,660,000 tons, down 3.04% from the previous month [48] - U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5,928.80 thousand barrels per day in May, down 1.81% [48] - U.S. crude oil exports decreased to an average of 3,818.00 thousand barrels per day, down 4.63% [53]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 6 月 20 日星期五 经济要闻 1. 商务部：将依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的审查。在 19 日商务部举行的例行发布会上，新闻发言人何亚东谈到稀土相关出口问题时 表示，将依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的审查。商务部新闻发 言人何亚东表示，中国一贯高度重视维护全球产供链的稳定与安全，依法依 规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的审查，已经依法批准一定数量的合规 申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。中方愿就此进一步加强与相关国 家的出口管制沟通对话，积极促进便利合规贸易。（资料来源：同花顺，央视 新闻） 2. 商务部：商务部召开例行新闻发布会，有记者就中欧经贸关系提问。商 务部新闻发言人何亚东：中欧互为主要贸易伙伴，中方高度重视中欧经贸关 系，一直与欧方保持各层级的密切沟通，推动双边贸易投资合作健康、稳定 发展，加强在世贸组织等多边领域的立场协调，致力于通过对话协商来妥善 解决经贸摩擦。今年是中国与欧盟建交五十周年。中方将与欧方一道，全面 落实双方领导人达成的重要共识，积极推动中欧经贸合作提质升级，推动解 决彼此关切，共同为中欧高层交往做好经贸议题和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [3][38]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices continue to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.19% as of June 13, reaching 4406.00 CNY/ton. In contrast, US and Canadian natural gas futures prices have also decreased, while UK prices have increased by 5.50% [1][2][7]. - China's natural gas production in May fell by 2.99% month-on-month, totaling 613,420 tons. Meanwhile, US and European natural gas inventories have risen, with US inventories increasing by 9.73% and European inventories by 22.55% [1][15][18]. - European natural gas imports in May decreased by 2.20% month-on-month but increased by 8.66% year-on-year. Notably, imports from Russia rose month-on-month but fell significantly by 50.65% year-on-year [2][24][28]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased by 145.00 CNY/ton, a drop of 3.19% month-on-month and 0.50% year-on-year. The US NYMEX natural gas futures price fell by 0.44% month-on-month but increased by 23.67% year-on-year [7][10]. - Canadian natural gas futures prices saw a significant decline of 33.56% month-on-month, while UK prices increased by 5.50% [10][11]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in May was 613,420 tons, down 2.99% from the previous month. The apparent consumption of natural gas in April decreased by 0.86% month-on-month but increased by 2.26% year-on-year [15][16]. Inventory - As of June 13, US LNG/LPG inventories rose to 169,056 thousand barrels, marking a 9.73% increase month-on-month. European natural gas inventories also increased by 22.55% month-on-month, totaling 601.10 billion kWh [18][22]. Imports and Exports - In May, Europe’s total natural gas imports decreased by 2.20% month-on-month to 172,918.64 million cubic meters, while imports from Russia increased by 10.11% month-on-month but decreased by 50.65% year-on-year [24][27][28].

六总 总量双周报: 扰动增加,趋势依旧 2025年6月19日 总量双周报 专题报告 | 分析师 | 林阳 电话:021-65465572 邮箱: linyang@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480524080001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 康明怡 电话: 021-25102911 邮箱: kangmy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480519090001 | | 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话: 021-25102905 邮箱: linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480519070002 | | 分析师 | 陈刚 电话: 010-66554028 邮箱: chen_gang@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480521080001 | | 分析师 | 刘嘉玮 电话: 010-66554043 邮箱: liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号: S1480519050001 | | 分析师 | 田馨宇 电话: 010-66554013 邮箱: tianxy@dxzq.net.cn ...

油气和炼化及贸易板块 2024 和 2025Q1 综 述：油气板块仍将保持较高景气度，炼化 及贸易板块业绩承压期待改善 2025 年 6 月 19 日 看好/维持 石油石化 行业报告 分析师 莫文娟 电话：010-66555574 邮箱：mowj@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480524070001 投资摘要： 2024 年海外通胀有所减缓，国内经济有所修复，从而间接支撑大宗商品需求。2024 年以来，美国 CPI 同 比上涨幅度逐步下降，截至年底低于 3%。2025 年第一季度美国通胀压力继续减缓，始终维持在 3%以下， 2024 年国内制造业 PMI 为 49.78，2025 年 1 月至 4 月，国内制造业 PMI 分别为 49.1，50.2，50.5，49.0， 围绕荣枯线 50 上下波动，有助于缓解估值压力并稳定市场预期，从而间接支撑大宗商品（如原油）需求。 2024 年油价宽幅震荡，同比下降；2025 年一季度，Brent 现货均价环比上涨。2024 年 1-12 月，Brent 原油现货均价整体价格在 69.19-91.17 美元/桶宽幅震荡，全年来看油价中枢小幅下跌，月度均价为 ...

煤炭行业：澳洲和欧洲三港动力煤 价涨，煤及褐煤月度进口量下降 国内动力煤价下跌，澳洲和欧洲三港动力煤离岸价格上涨。截至 6 月 13 日， 国内秦皇岛动力煤山西优混 5500 平仓价格 610 元/吨，环比上月跌 2.71%；澳 大利亚纽卡斯尔港 NEWC 动力煤离岸价格 102.2 美元/吨，环比上月上升 4.2 美元/吨，涨幅为 4.29%；南非理查德 RB 动力煤离岸价格 89.2 美元/吨，环比 上月下跌 0.8 美元/吨，跌幅为 0.89%；欧洲三港 DES ARA 动力煤离岸价格 99.00 美元/吨，环比上月上涨 1 美元/吨，涨幅为 1.02%。 4 月陕晋蒙三省国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量环比均下降；煤及褐煤 5 月进口量 月环比下降。4 月，国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量：陕西产 2209.70 万吨，环比 上月下降 53.80 万吨，跌幅为 2.38%；内蒙古产 1367.10 万吨，环比上月跌 627.70 万吨，跌幅为 31.47%；山西产 4661.30 万吨，环比上月跌 2.02%。5 月，煤及褐煤月度进口量达到 3604.01 万吨，环比上月 178.99 万吨，降幅为 4.73%。 三 ...