后市周期预判：政策引导下生猪降重出栏是近期大趋势，猪价短空长多，产能 去化预期提升，板块迎来明显催化。行业指数 PB 自五月底以来明显抬升，但 仍处于历史偏低位置，板块估值具备安全性和向上弹性，养殖龙头有望率先迎 来估值修复。标的方面建议关注具备成本优势的头部养殖标的牧原股份，其他 相关标的包含温氏股份、天康生物、神农集团等。 5 月上市企业销售数据： 风险提示：畜禽价格波动风险，上市企业出栏量扩张不及预期，动物疫病风险， 企业成本控制不及预期等。 2025 年 6 月 16 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 农林牧渔行业：政策引导规范出栏， 关注产能去化预期提升 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：5 月猪价前高后低。2025 年 5 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别 为 38.19 元/公斤、14.78 元/公斤和 25.49 元/公斤，环比变化分别为-2.43%、 -1.52%和-1.12%。5 月猪价前高后低，五一节后全国生猪价格回落，截止 6 月 12 日，全国出栏生猪均价 14.12 元/公斤。 供应端：24 年下半年能繁母猪存栏微增，对应 5 月出栏生猪量整体充足，叠 加饲料成本相对低位，养殖压 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [24]. Core Insights - The growth of social financing (社融) in May was primarily supported by proactive fiscal policies, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in outstanding social financing [1][2]. - Credit demand remains weak, with a notable decline in new loans compared to previous months, particularly in corporate loans [2][3]. - The issuance of government bonds has been front-loaded, contributing significantly to the increase in social financing, with net financing of government bonds reaching 1.46 trillion yuan in May [2]. - The overall loan growth rate is at 7.1%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month, and the total new loans for May amounted to 620 billion yuan [1][2]. - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable growth in scale due to the issuance of long-term special government bonds and a shift in local government focus towards economic recovery [8][9]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In May, social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [2]. - Corporate loans showed a mixed performance, with short-term loans increasing while medium to long-term loans decreased due to debt replacement impacts [3]. - The total new loans for May were 620 billion yuan, down 330 billion yuan year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 1.07 trillion yuan for the first five months, reflecting a decrease of 460 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Deposits and Monetary Supply - M2 increased by 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, significantly influenced by a low base from the previous year [4]. - New deposits in May reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan year-on-year, with notable contributions from non-bank and fiscal deposits [4][19]. Interest Rates and Profitability - The average interest rate for new corporate loans remained stable at approximately 3.2%, while personal housing loans also held steady at around 3.1% [3][15]. - The banking sector is expected to experience manageable pressure on net interest income due to declining loan rates and adjustments in deposit rates [8][9].

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a recovery in Q1 2025 due to installation rush, but the entire sector remains in a loss phase, with capacity clearing still ongoing [2][4] - Supply-side optimization is expected to be driven by industry self-discipline and technological innovation, with leading companies likely to establish capacity planning coordination mechanisms to avoid vicious competition [2][3] - The silicon material and battery cell segments are identified as key areas for supply-side optimization, with the complexity of production processes and high costs associated with production halts being significant factors [2][3] Group 2: Silver Reduction Technologies - Silver reduction is a crucial direction for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the photovoltaic industry, focusing on two main approaches: substituting silver with lower-cost non-precious metals and continuously improving processes to reduce silver paste usage [3] - New technologies such as 0BB and multi-busbar techniques are emerging to enhance efficiency while reducing material costs, indicating a trend towards innovation in the sector [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The new policy has driven a "531" rush in photovoltaic installations, marginally boosting profits across the industry chain in Q1, but uncertainty in electricity prices and expected declines in overall grid connection prices may significantly reduce investment willingness in distributed projects in the second half of the year [4] - The report suggests that battery cells with rapid technological iterations and silicon materials with high start-stop costs are likely to see accelerated capacity clearing, benefiting leading auxiliary material companies as self-discipline in the industry strengthens [4] Group 4: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery sector is witnessing a recovery in overall prosperity, with solid-state batteries and sodium batteries expected to reach a scale application node, driven by strong terminal demand and new technology catalysts [24] - The report highlights that the battery segment is positioned well within the lithium battery supply chain, with revenue and profit expected to rise simultaneously, benefiting from new demand increments and solid-state battery technology [24][25] Group 5: Metal Industry - The magnesium industry is entering a state of sustained tight balance, with the development of a modern industrial cluster for magnesium in China expected to enhance profitability and scale efficiency [28][33] - The lithium industry is gradually improving its oversupply situation, with global mining investment showing signs of a tightening supply structure, indicating potential for future price stability [28][29]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI wave is driving the electronic industry into a new development phase, with three core areas showing significant growth momentum: wafer foundry, SoC, and thermal management materials [2][3][6]. Wafer Foundry - The wafer foundry segment is expected to benefit from AI development, particularly in servers, data centers, and storage, which are the fastest-growing sub-markets. Global semiconductor sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with wafer demand expected to reach 11.2 million pieces per month in 2025 and grow to 15.1 million by 2030. The growth rates for 2024 and 2025 are forecasted at 6% and 7%, respectively [2][3]. SoC (System on Chip) - AI technology is becoming a crucial component of SoC architecture, enhancing smart processing capabilities for edge devices. The global SoC market is predicted to grow from $138.46 billion in 2024 to $205.97 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% from 2024 to 2029. The demand for SoC in the automotive sector is also rising significantly [3][6]. Thermal Management Materials - The demand for thermal management materials is expected to grow rapidly due to the increased heat generation from AI-enabled devices. The global thermal management market is projected to expand from approximately $15.98 billion in 2023 to $26.43 billion by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 10.5% [6][7]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is currently in a phase of supply-side optimization driven by self-discipline and technological innovation. The first quarter of 2025 saw a performance recovery due to installation rushes, but the industry remains in a loss phase. Key areas for supply-side optimization include silicon materials and battery cells, with a focus on reducing silver usage in production [6][7][8]. Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery in market conditions, with solid-state batteries and sodium batteries expected to reach a scale application phase. The report suggests that the overall profitability of the lithium battery sector is improving, driven by new technologies and increasing demand from emerging applications [14][15][16]. Metal Industry - The report indicates that the supply-demand structure in the metal industry is improving, particularly for magnesium and lithium. The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, while the lithium supply surplus is gradually improving. The global magnesium demand is projected to grow significantly due to its applications in lightweight and green technologies [18][19][23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry is expected to benefit from supply-side optimization driven by industry self-discipline and technological innovation. The first quarter of 2025 saw a performance recovery due to a rush in installations, but the entire industry remains in a loss phase, with capacity clearing still ongoing. Key areas for supply-side optimization include silicon materials and battery cells, which are crucial for the industry's recovery [4][30] - The reduction of silver usage in photovoltaic technology is a significant cost-saving direction. New technologies such as copper plating and copper paste are being explored to replace expensive silver, while process improvements aim to reduce silver paste usage [5][37] - The report highlights the importance of technological iteration in battery cells, which are essential for maintaining competitiveness in the photovoltaic sector. The ongoing development of new technologies is expected to lead to a gradual clearing of outdated production capacity [35][56] Summary by Sections 1. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The global photovoltaic installation growth rate is slowing, with an expected 530 GW of new installations in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 35.9%. In China, new installations are projected to reach 277.57 GW, a 28.3% increase year-on-year, driven by policy-induced rush installations [14][15] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in domestic installations, with 104.93 GW added, marking a 74.6% year-on-year growth. However, the overall industry is still facing overcapacity issues [4][14] 2. Key Areas for Supply-Side Optimization - The silicon material segment is highlighted as a core area for supply-side optimization due to its complex production process and high start-stop costs. Major players in this segment are more likely to reach production cut agreements during challenging times [30][31] - The battery cell segment is undergoing rapid technological advancements, with new techniques being introduced to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. This segment is expected to see a gradual clearing of outdated capacity as leading companies continue to invest in upgrades [35][56] 3. Cost Reduction Strategies - The report emphasizes the ongoing push for silver reduction in photovoltaic technology, with copper-based alternatives being explored. The cost structure of battery cells indicates that silver paste accounts for 27.3% of battery costs, making it a target for reduction efforts [37][40] - New technologies such as the 0BB and multi-busbar (MBB) techniques are being developed to minimize silver usage while improving efficiency. The report notes that these innovations could lead to significant cost savings and increased demand for auxiliary materials [5][46] 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is currently in a phase of overcapacity, with the need for production capacity clearing still present. The focus should be on segments with rapid technological iteration, such as battery cells and silicon materials, which are expected to see faster capacity clearing [54][56] - The report recommends monitoring companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, such as 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power Supply) and 德业股份 (Deye Technology) [6][57]

Investment Summary - The electronic industry index has outperformed the ChiNext index from the beginning of the year until June 4, 2025, driven by the AI model innovation wave led by DeepSeek and the continuous iteration of AI applications on the terminal side [4][14][15] - The total market value held by funds in the electronic industry as of Q1 2025 was 570.558 billion, with a decrease in the proportion of circulating A-shares to 4.78% [4][20][30] - The semiconductor sector accounted for 90% of the top ten companies in fund holdings within the electronic industry [23] Core Areas of Growth 1. Wafer Foundry - The wafer foundry sector is expected to benefit from AI development, with the fastest-growing sub-markets being servers, data centers, and storage, projected to reach over $1 trillion in global semiconductor sales by 2030 [4][44] - The global wafer monthly demand is expected to reach 11.2 million pieces in 2025 and grow to 15.1 million pieces by 2030, with growth rates of 6% and 7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively [4][47] - Beneficiary companies include SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor [4][52] 2. System on Chip (SoC) - AI technology has become a crucial component of SoC architecture, enhancing smart processing capabilities for edge devices, with the global SoC market projected to grow from $138.46 billion in 2024 to $205.97 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 8.3% [5][80] - The demand for SoC is significantly driven by mobile devices, IoT devices, and wearable devices, with increasing needs for energy efficiency and compact size [5][80] - Beneficiary companies include Rockchip, Hengxuan Technology, Allwinner Technology, and others [5] 3. Thermal Management Materials - The thermal management materials market is expected to grow from approximately $15.98 billion in 2023 to $26.43 billion by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 10.5% [5] - The demand for thermal management materials is driven by the increasing heat generation and cooling requirements of consumer electronics, particularly AI-enabled devices [5] - Beneficiary companies include Sifang New Materials, Lingyi Manufacturing, Suzhou Tianmai, and others [5]

Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery in overall prosperity, with solid-state batteries and sodium batteries expected to reach a scale application node by 2025 [1][4][19] - The report highlights the potential for profit recovery and valuation enhancement in the sector as new technologies continue to commercialize from 2025 to 2026 [4][19] Demand Side - The domestic market is seeing high growth driven by policies such as the vehicle replacement program, with cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reaching 4.299 million units from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46.3% [20][21] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market reached 42.7%, up 10.4 percentage points year-on-year [20] - The commercial vehicle segment is particularly strong, with new energy commercial vehicle sales increasing by 66.9% year-on-year in the same period [21] Sector Performance - The battery segment is expected to see simultaneous revenue and profit growth, benefiting from new demand in low-altitude and robotics applications, as well as the commercialization of solid-state batteries [4][46] - The report notes that the lithium battery industry has emerged from a bottoming cycle, with various segments expected to see profit levels return [19][46] New Technologies and Industry Trends - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to accelerate in application due to rising demand in sectors like eVTOL and humanoid robots, with companies that have a technological lead likely to benefit [6][19] - Sodium batteries have crossed the threshold for large-scale cost efficiency, with significant demand growth in extreme environment storage and electric two-wheelers [6][19] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and CATL, which are expected to benefit from new customer orders and overseas expansion [4][5] - The materials segment is projected to see a return to profitability as industry concentration increases, particularly for ternary cathode materials [5][19] Profit Forecasts and Ratings - Guoxuan High-Tech is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2025, with a strong recommendation for investment [8] - CATL is expected to maintain a significant market share, with its EPS projected to reach 14.83 in 2025 [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of industry self-discipline and technological innovation to optimize the supply side of the photovoltaic industry, with a focus on the reduction of silver usage in manufacturing processes [4][5][6] - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a recovery in Q1 2025 due to a surge in installations driven by policy changes, although the overall industry remains in a loss-making phase [4][6] - Key areas for supply-side optimization include the silicon material and battery cell segments, which are critical for improving efficiency and reducing costs [4][30] Investment Summary - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a total global installation of approximately 530 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 35.9%, with China's new installations projected at 277.57 GW, up 28.3% [14][15] - The report highlights that the first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in installations in China, with 104.93 GW added, representing a 74.6% year-on-year growth [14] - The report notes that the average cash cost of silicon materials is around 34,000 RMB per ton, with leading companies like Tongwei and Daqo Energy achieving lower costs [31][30] Technological Innovations - The report discusses the ongoing advancements in battery technologies, including the development of new techniques such as 0BB and bifacial cells, which are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [35][37] - The reduction of silver usage is identified as a key strategy for cost reduction, with alternatives like copper plating and copper paste being explored [5][37] - The report mentions that the new "stacked grid" technology is gaining traction, which eliminates traditional grid structures to improve efficiency and reduce material costs [46][37] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is still facing overcapacity, and the recovery of profit margins will depend on the successful elimination of outdated production capacity [6][54] - It recommends focusing on companies that are leading in technological advancements and cost reductions, such as Tongwei and Sunshine Power, as potential investment opportunities [6][57] - The report also highlights the growing demand in the energy storage sector, suggesting that companies involved in this area may benefit from increased market activity [57]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 6 月 11 日星期三 分析师推荐 【东兴有色金属】金属行业 2025 半年度展望（Ⅲ）：供需结构持续改善—小 金属板块或显现底部抬升（20250610） 我们在 2025 年 6 月 6 日发布的报告《金属行业 2025 半年度展望（Ⅰ）：弱供 给周期下的行业配置属性探讨—工业金属板块高景气度延续》及《金属行业 2025 半年度展望（Ⅱ）：供需结构强化叠加流动性周期切换—贵金属行业进 入强景气周期》中，分别对工业金属板块的铜、铝和贵金属板块的黄金、白 银及铂金进行了讨论。本文中，我们将对镁与锂两大行业的供给与需求状态 进行研究，并对其未来变化进行预测，从而判断其供需结构的变化趋势。我 们发现，镁行业供需或进入持续性紧平衡状态，而锂行业供给过剩状态或逐 渐改善。 全球金属行业仍然处于弱供给周期。全球矿端有效供给增量显现刚性化特征， 2024 年全球矿业上游勘探投入在金属价格整体高位背景下延续第二年回落， 2024 年全球金属勘探投入已降 3%至 125 亿美元。尽管 3 年行业矿端平均资本 投入周期数据暗示数年后金属行业的供给弹性或有释放空间，如 2021-202 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm employment data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2][3] - The labor market is characterized by low turnover rates, hiring rates, and layoff rates, indicating a stagnant labor market [3] - The report suggests that the summer service consumption may see some support, particularly in tourism and gambling sectors, with hourly wage growth outpacing inflation at 4% year-on-year [3] Industry Overview - The computer industry is experiencing a revaluation driven by AI Agent technologies, with the sector outperforming the broader market in the first half of 2025 [9][10] - The AI Agent segment is expected to see continued growth due to favorable policies, technological advancements, and increasing demand, with a projected market size growth from 147.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.3 trillion yuan by 2028 [11][12] - The report identifies key players in the AI Agent space, including both platform-based and vertical application companies, highlighting their potential to enhance productivity across various sectors such as finance, education, and healthcare [12][14] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the potential of AI Agent technologies to reshape the computer industry, suggesting that companies involved in this space will likely benefit from the ongoing developments [11][13] - The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, with global demand projected to grow significantly due to applications in lightweight automotive and other sectors [27][28] - The lithium industry is also forecasted to improve its supply-demand relationship, with global lithium supply expected to increase from 123.1 thousand tons LCE in 2024 to 186 thousand tons LCE by 2027, driven by the growth in electric vehicle and energy storage markets [28][29]