Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's asset value has significant room for revaluation, with the stock market expected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, driven by the transition from old to new economic drivers and the increasing share of the tertiary industry [6] - The report highlights that the liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive for the stock market in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts in China and a narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US [7] - The report anticipates a turning point in corporate earnings and valuations in the A-share market, with a projected profit growth rate of around 12% in 2026 [8] Economic News - The report notes that retail sales in various sectors, including home appliances and tourism, have shown significant year-on-year growth, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The People's Bank of China has announced measures to enhance offshore RMB liquidity, which may positively impact market confidence and investment [2] - The report mentions that foreign direct investment in China has increased, particularly in high-tech industries, reflecting a positive trend in attracting foreign capital [2] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the ongoing transformation of China's manufacturing sector, with a shift towards high-value-added services and technology-driven industries, which is expected to enhance the profitability of Chinese assets [6] - The report highlights the expected growth in the lithium industry, driven by the demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% for lithium demand from 2024 to 2027 [21] - The report indicates that the rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, which may lead to price increases and improved profitability for related companies [17][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for 2026, including Torch Electronics, which is expected to benefit from improving industry conditions, and Guoli Electronics, which has a strong position in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [13] - Other recommended companies include Huace Navigation, which is poised to benefit from the Beidou satellite system, and Kingsoft Office, which is expected to see growth in its software business [13][14] - The report also highlights the potential of companies in the lithium and rare earth sectors, such as Zhongmin Resources and Jinyang Salt, due to the anticipated growth in demand for these materials [20][21]

公 司 研 究 DONGXING SECURITIES 混合键合设备：AI算力时代的芯片互连革命与 BESI的领航之路 | ——半导体行业分析手册之二 | | --- | | 分析师 | 刘航 | 执业证书编号：S1480522060001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究助理 | 李科融 | 执业证书编号：S1480124050020 | 东兴电子团队 2026年1月26日 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 摘要 语言学习平台 Q1: 混合键合是什么? 先进封装已成为驱动算力持续提升的"后摩尔时代"新引擎，键合技术的性能直接决定了集成系统的上限。键合技术本身经 历了从引线键合、倒装芯片、热压键合到扇出封装的演进，最终迈向混合键合时代。混合键合通过铜-铜直接键合取代传统凸块，实现了10μm以下的超 精细间距互连，在互连密度、带宽、能效和单位互连成本上带来数量级提升，是支撑3D堆叠与异构集成的关键突破。其工艺分为晶圆对晶圆（适合存储 等均匀小芯片）和芯片对晶圆（适合大芯片及异构集成）。目前，混合键合已在3D NAND、CIS（取代TSV）等领域成熟应用，并正加速 ...

乳制品周期展望：26 年原奶价格有望迎来 回升 2026 年 1 月 26 日 看好/维持 食品饮料 行业报告 | 分析师 | 孟斯硕 电话：010-66554041 邮箱：mengssh@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480520070004 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 王洁婷 电话：021-25102900 邮箱：wangjt@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480520070003 | 投资摘要： 本轮奶价调整周期较长但接近尾声。通常一个完整的奶价周期从上升到下降大概 6 年左右，且上升周期长，下降周期短。而 本次周期从 2019 年奶价开始上升， 2021 年奶价开始调整至今，已经历经了 7 年，其中奶价下降了 5 年的时间。本轮周期 主要由自 19 年起的乳企自建奶源的产能过度扩张，叠加疫情后需求端走弱导致的供需失衡所致。随着牧场规模化程度提升 以及和下游乳企联系愈发紧密，牧场抗风险能力增强，使得本轮周期调整时间较以往更长。但我们结合周期长度以及供需关 系的变化判断本轮调整周期接近尾声。 牧场存栏量进一步去化，但奶牛单产提升带动产奶量略微 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant potential for asset value re-evaluation in China, predicting a slow bull market in the stock market by 2025 as a reflection of this process [3] - The report highlights the ongoing transformation of China's economy towards high-value service industries, with a notable shift from traditional manufacturing to technology-driven sectors [3] - The anticipated liquidity support for the stock market is expected to facilitate the return of overseas capital and encourage domestic investment in equities [4] - The report forecasts a recovery in corporate earnings and valuation expansion, suggesting a transition from valuation-driven growth to earnings-driven growth in the A-share market [5] - The report identifies favorable factors for economic recovery, including the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and a shift from passive to active inventory replenishment [6][7] - Investment styles are expected to shift towards a more balanced approach, with growth and cyclical sectors outperforming others as consumer recovery becomes more likely [8] Company Recommendations - Torch Electronics (603678.SH): The company is experiencing improved industry conditions, with significant growth in its three main business segments, achieving a revenue of 1.772 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 24.20% year-on-year increase [15] - Guoli Electronics (688103.SH): A leading player in vacuum devices, the company has seen rapid revenue growth, reaching 569 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 70.49% increase year-on-year, driven by demand in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [20] - Huace Navigation (300627.SZ): The company is positioned to benefit from the North Star initiative, with a revenue of 3.251 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 21.38% year-on-year growth [23] - Kingsoft Office (688111.SH): The company reported a revenue of 4.178 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 15.21% increase year-on-year, driven by strong growth in its WPS software business [30] - Zhejiang Xiantong (603239.SH): The company has established itself as a leader in the automotive sealing strip industry, benefiting from the rising demand for high-end automotive products [33] - Zhongke Haixun (300810.SZ): The company is developing comprehensive deep-sea technology solutions, positioning itself as a leader in underwater acoustics [10] - Jinyinhe (300619.SZ): The company is the largest producer of rubidium and cesium salts globally, with a strong growth outlook as it reaches full production capacity [10] - Anji Food (603345.SH): The company has quickly adapted to market changes, demonstrating clear growth potential [10]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 经济要闻 1.日本：日本财务省 1 月 22 日公布的 2025 年贸易统计初值显示，2025 年 日本贸易逆差为 26507 亿日元，逆差幅度比上年减少 52.9%。这是连续 5 年 呈现逆差。据初步统计，2025 年日本对美出口额同比减少 4.1%。（资料来源： 同花顺） 2.国家能源局：2025 年 12 月，国家能源局核发绿证 2.11 亿个，涉及可再生 能源发电项目 68.87 万个，其中可交易绿证 1.50 亿个，占比 71.32%。本期 核发 2025 年 11 月可再生能源电量对应绿证 1.85 亿个，占比 87.72%。2025 年 1-12 月，国家能源局共计核发绿证 29.47 亿个，其中可交易绿证 18.93 亿个。（资料来源：同花顺） 3.工信部：联合 7 部门出台《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，加快突 破训练芯片、异构算力等关键技术，体系化推动大小模型在软件编程、新材 料研发等领域的应用。(财联社)AI 已渗透领航级智能工厂 70%业务场景，带 动 1700 多项智能制造装备应用。(财联社)我国 6G 第 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3][30] Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China experienced a total delivery volume of 216.5 billion pieces in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%. The express delivery volume reached 199 billion pieces, growing by 13.7% year-on-year. The total revenue for the postal industry was 1.8 trillion yuan, with express delivery revenue at 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 6.5% respectively [1][6] - In December 2025, the national express service companies completed a business volume of 18.21 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.3%. The express business revenue was about 138.87 billion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the same period last year. The average revenue per piece was approximately 7.63 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.6% [1][6][8] Summary by Sections 1. December Industry Overview - The industry volume growth rate fell below 3%, with stable performance in average revenue per piece. The December express delivery volume growth rate decreased further compared to November, attributed to high base effects from last year's price wars and weak demand since Double Eleven [2][6][8] - Major companies saw a decline in year-on-year volume growth rates, with YTO dropping from 13.6% in November to 9.0%, Yunda from -4.2% to -7.4%, and Shentong from 14.7% to 11.1%. SF Express's growth rate fell to 9.3% [2][6][12] 2. Express Business Volume - The express delivery business volume in December 2025 was approximately 18.21 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of about 2.3%. The growth rate continued to decline due to the ongoing internal competition and weak demand since Double Eleven [8][10] 3. Average Revenue per Piece - The average revenue per piece in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, with a narrowing decrease in the price drop trend. The overall price indicators remained positive, indicating a supportive effect from the internal competition [7][22][28] - The revenue per piece for major companies showed mixed results, with YTO's revenue per piece increasing by 0.4%, while Yunda and Shentong saw decreases of 0.5% and 3.3% respectively. SF Express's revenue per piece increased by 2.5% month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [23][25][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - Despite the pressure from lower-than-expected demand since Double Eleven, the stability in average revenue per piece for major companies reflects the supportive role of internal competition on pricing. The ongoing internal competition is expected to exceed expectations, indicating the industry is in the early stages of an upward cycle, with profitability likely to continue recovering [3][30] - The shift from high-growth to a focus on existing market importance suggests a change in competitive logic, emphasizing service quality for sustainable development. Key companies to watch include Zhongtong and YTO, which lead in service quality, and Shentong, which has shown significant operational improvements [3][30]

宁波银行（002142.SZ）：全年盈利平稳, 中收增长亮眼 ——2025 年业绩快报点评 事件：1 月 20 日，宁波银行发布 2025 年业绩快报，全年实现营业收 入、归母净利润 719.7 亿、293.3 亿，同比增长 8.0%、8.1%（1-3Q25： 8.3%、8.4%）。年化加权平均 ROE 为 13.11%，同比下降 0.48pct。年末 不良率 0.76%，环比持平；拨备覆盖率 373.2%，环比下降 2.8pct。 点评： 营收利润增速环比微降，中收增长亮眼。2025 年宁波银行营业收入、归 母净利润 719.7 亿、293.3 亿，同比增长 8.0%、8.1%，增速较前三季度 均下降 0.3pct。拆分营收来看：（1）净利息收入同比+10.8%，主要是规 模驱动；增速较前三季度下降 1pct，与四季度规模增速季节性放缓有 关，息差或基本保持平稳。（2）中收同比+30.7%，增速较前三季度提升 1.4pct。中收高增既有低基数因素，也受益于资本市场回暖带来的财富管 理、托管等中收快速增长。截至 2025 年末，宁波银行个人客户 AUM 同 比增长 13.07%，增速高于一般存款；托管业务 C ...

事件：1 月 20 日，宁波银行发布 2025 年业绩快报，全年实现营业收 入、归母净利润 719.7 亿、293.3 亿，同比增长 8.0%、8.1%（1-3Q25： 8.3%、8.4%）。年化加权平均 ROE 为 13.11%，同比下降 0.48pct。年末 不良率 0.76%，环比持平；拨备覆盖率 373.2%，环比下降 2.8pct。 宁波银行（002142.SZ）：全年盈利平稳, 中收增长亮眼 ——2025 年业绩快报点评 点评： 营收利润增速环比微降，中收增长亮眼。2025 年宁波银行营业收入、归 母净利润 719.7 亿、293.3 亿，同比增长 8.0%、8.1%，增速较前三季度 均下降 0.3pct。拆分营收来看：（1）净利息收入同比+10.8%，主要是规 模驱动；增速较前三季度下降 1pct，与四季度规模增速季节性放缓有 关，息差或基本保持平稳。（2）中收同比+30.7%，增速较前三季度提升 1.4pct。中收高增既有低基数因素，也受益于资本市场回暖带来的财富管 理、托管等中收快速增长。截至 2025 年末，宁波银行个人客户 AUM 同 比增长 13.07%，增速高于一般存款；托管业务 C ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the domestic demand for liquid chemical transportation, driven by a rebound in the downstream refining industry, which is expected to improve in the second half of the year [6][8] - The company, Xingtong Co., is positioned as a leader in the coastal liquid chemical transportation sector, with a fleet of 40 vessels, including 34 chemical tankers, and has established a global water transportation network [6][7] - The company has maintained a strong competitive edge through superior safety management, resulting in a significant increase in its domestic market share from 5.3% in 2019 to 16.0% in 2024 [6][7] Company Overview - Xingtong Co. has a modern fleet characterized by high-end, large, young, green, and intelligent vessels, with an average age of less than 8 years for its chemical tankers [7] - The company has been gradually entering international markets while maintaining its domestic advantages, capitalizing on the aging global chemical tanker fleet [7] - The company's profitability metrics, including ROE and ROA, are above industry averages, reflecting effective service quality and cost control [7] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the domestic market's economic conditions, with supply-side growth expected to slow down due to a decrease in newly approved shipping capacity [8] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 285 million, 351 million, and 429 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.02, 1.25, and 1.53 yuan [8] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 15.7, 12.7, and 10.4 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8]

2026 年 1 月 20 日星期二三 东兴晨报 P1 1.日本韩国：1 月 20 日，在日本东京债券市场，日本长期国债继续遭到抛售， 导致收益率不断上扬。当天，20 年期日本国债收益率上升 14 个基点至 3.395%。韩国：1 月 20 日，韩国 10 年期国债期货价格跌至 2024 年 4 月以 来的最低点（资料来源：每日经济新闻） 2.国务院：1 月 20 日，财政部综合司司长李先忠在国新办新闻发布会上表示， 近期财政部、税务总局发布公告，明确自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起取消光伏等产 品出口退税，并分两年取消电子产品出口退税。此次出口退税政策调整，有 利于促进资源高效利用，也有利于引导产业结构合理调整，综合整治"内卷 式"无序竞争，推动经济高质量发展。（资料来源：证券时报网） 东 兴 晨 报 经济要闻 3.央行：1 月 20 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布最新一 期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）：1 年期 LPR 为 3.0%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%， 均较上期维持不变。至此，LPR 已连续 8 个月保持稳定。市场分析普遍认为， 开年首期 LPR"按兵不动"符合预期，主要 ...