行 业 研 新城市工作会议推动地产回归健康 发展轨道和行业供需新平衡 2025 年 7 月 16 日 看好/维持 建材 行业报告 2025 年 7 月 14-15 日中央城市工作会议在北京召开，对进一步做好城市工作 做了具体部署。 点评： 城市工作会议是高维度经济工作的具体指引，打响中国特色城市现代化的发令 枪。中央城市工作会议是从中央层面对做好全国城市工作的具体部署，是从中 国经济发展更高维度的具体工作指引，也是在全国范围内发展中国特色城市现 代化的发令枪。上一次的中央城市工作会议是在 2015 年 12 月。后续在 2016 年和 2017 年全国城市的棚户区改造等相关具体工作逐步发力落地，并不断地 得到大规模的推进。这次的城市工作会议虽然和十年前的城市发展进程不同， 前者 2015 年城镇化率为 57.33%，而 2024 年城镇化为 67%，提高了 9.67 个 百分点，但较发达国家平稳的城镇化水平仍有差距，中国城市的现代化还有很 大的发展空间。并且这次会议提出"要建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、 智慧的现代化人民城市为目标，以推动城市高质量发展为主题，以坚持城市内 涵式发展为主线，以推进城市更新为 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the overall credit growth in June met expectations, driven by active fiscal policies and increased government bond issuance, with a year-on-year growth in social financing of 8.9% [2][19]. - The report notes that the demand for credit from the real economy remains weak, suggesting that further stimulus may be necessary to boost credit demand [10]. - The report anticipates that the issuance of government bonds will peak in the third quarter, which is expected to support stable social financing growth [2]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit Growth - In June, social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 901.6 billion yuan, with RMB loans contributing 2.36 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal increase in credit issuance [2][21]. - The year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans remained stable at 7.1% by the end of June, with a total of 12.92 trillion yuan in new loans issued in the first half of the year, a decrease of 350 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][3]. Corporate Loans - Non-financial corporate loans increased by 1.77 trillion yuan in June, with short-term loans contributing 1.16 trillion yuan, showing a significant seasonal increase [3]. - The report indicates that the impact of debt replacement on medium and long-term loans is gradually diminishing, with a year-on-year increase of 400 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans [3]. Household Loans - Household loans saw a slight year-on-year increase, with new loans totaling 597.6 billion yuan in June, driven by consumption scenarios [4]. - The report suggests that the willingness of households to leverage remains dependent on further policy support, as employment and income conditions have not shown significant improvement [4]. Interest Rates and Market Conditions - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3% in the first half of the year, indicating a slowdown in the decline of loan rates [9]. - The report expects that the overall pricing of new loans will remain stable, with limited downward pressure on loan rates for the remainder of the year [9]. Investment Outlook - The report predicts that the banking sector will see improved revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year, supported by a narrowing trend in interest margins and a recovery in the bond market [10]. - It emphasizes the attractiveness of bank stocks due to their high dividends and stable performance, with a recommendation to focus on banks with strong regional advantages and performance release potential [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, indicating a potential recovery in profitability and valuation levels for the steel industry due to the "anti-involution" policy [1][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to shift the steel industry from low-cost homogeneous competition to high-end differentiated competition, which is expected to lead to a reversal in industry profitability and valuation levels [1][4]. - The steel industry is currently facing weak demand, with prices and profit levels declining. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for black metal smelting and rolling industries has dropped to 89.8, the lowest among five sub-industries [2][4]. - The current state of the steel industry shows a divergence in profitability between upstream and midstream sectors, with upstream mining absorbing most of the industry's profits [2][4]. Summary by Sections Current Industry Status - The steel industry is experiencing weak demand, with PPI for black metal smelting and rolling industries at 89.8, indicating a decline in prices and profits [2]. - The gross profit margin for black metal smelting and rolling industries is only 5.48%, significantly lower than the 19.57% margin for black metal mining [2]. Comparison with 2015 Supply-Side Reform - The supply-demand situation in the steel industry has improved compared to 2015, with a reduction in the degree of supply surplus [3][4]. - The current "anti-involution" policy is less administratively forceful than the 2015 supply-side reforms, which were primarily focused on eliminating outdated production capacity [3]. Policy Impact and Guidance - The "anti-involution" policy aims to prevent homogeneous competition and emphasizes the need for market mechanisms and industry self-regulation to optimize and upgrade production capacity [4]. - The policy includes stricter standards for capacity elimination and encourages the adoption of green and intelligent production methods [5]. Inventory and Profitability Outlook - The steel inventory is expected to rise from the bottom, with significant reductions in social inventory levels for rebar and wire rod [6]. - The industry's return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) have declined due to the real estate market downturn, but the "anti-involution" policy may help restore market sentiment and improve profitability [6]. Valuation Observations - The current median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the steel industry is 35.51X, indicating potential for valuation recovery as supply-demand structures improve [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a "look good" investment rating [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various cyclical sub-industries, particularly highlighting the steel industry, which is currently facing weak demand and declining prices and profit levels. The policy aims to prevent vicious competition and promote high-quality development [4][62]. - The steel industry is expected to undergo a transformation towards high-end differentiated competition, with potential recovery in profitability and valuation levels [19][51]. - The transportation industry, particularly the express delivery and aviation sectors, is anticipated to benefit from the government's focus on balancing supply and demand and promoting high-quality development [5][52]. - The construction materials industry is also set to experience a new balance due to the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, which will accelerate the optimization of supply [7][66]. - The chemical industry, including silicon-based products and pesticides, is expected to see improvements in supply dynamics, leading to a potential recovery in profitability [68][74]. Summary by Sections 1. Metal Industry - The steel industry is currently facing weak demand, with both supply and demand weakening compared to 2015, but the degree of oversupply has lessened [24][25]. - The report notes that the profitability of the steel industry has declined to levels seen in 2015, with profits shifting towards the upstream iron ore sector [33][46]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance the industry's supply-demand structure and profitability, with a median P/E ratio of 35.51X indicating room for valuation recovery [4][48]. 2. Transportation Industry - The express delivery and aviation sectors are highlighted as areas that will benefit from the government's anti-involution measures, which aim to improve supply-demand balance and service quality [5][60]. - The aviation sector has already seen improvements in passenger load factors due to supply-side controls, which are expected to enhance pricing power during peak seasons [55][56]. 3. Construction Materials Industry - The report discusses the gradual implementation of the "anti-involution" policy in the construction materials sector, particularly in cement, which is expected to lead to better supply-side optimization [62][64]. - The focus on eliminating excess capacity and promoting high-quality development is anticipated to solidify the growth of leading companies in the industry [66]. 4. Chemical Industry - The silicon-based products and pesticide sectors are projected to benefit from improved supply dynamics due to regulatory measures aimed at curbing low-price competition [68][74]. - The report indicates that self-discipline within the pesticide industry, particularly in the glyphosate sector, will help improve market conditions and profitability [75].

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 7 月 9 日星期三 经济要闻 1. 国家发改委：新增 100 亿元以工代赈投资助力重点群体就业。国家发展改 革委日前新增下达 100 亿元中央预算内投资，支持 26 个省（区、市）和新疆 生产建设兵团实施 1975 个以工代赈项目。这批项目预计发放劳务报酬 45.9 亿元，带动 31 万名重点人群就业，包括脱贫人口、返乡农民工等群体。项目 劳务报酬占中央投资比例提高至不低于 40%，重点实施村道巷道硬化等劳动 密集型工程。截至 6 月底，2025 年度以工代赈中央投资累计达 295 亿元，预 计带动 70 余万名困难群众就业，发放劳务报酬超 110 亿元。下一步，国家发 改委将推动项目全部开工建设，强化重点群体就业保障。（资料来源：同花顺） 数据来源：《七月金股汇》 2025 年 06 月 29 日， 东兴证券研究所 2.发改委等三部门：通过地方政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的零碳园区 项目。发改委等三部门印发开展零碳园区建设的通知，统筹利用现有资金渠 道支持零碳园区建设，鼓励各地区对零碳园区建设给予资金支持，通过地方 政府专项债券资金等支持符合条件的项目。鼓励 ...

东兴轻纺：户外行业或将持续火热， 关注关税政策变化 2025 年 7 月 8 日 看好/维持 轻工纺服 行业报告 ——周观点 纺织制造：美越达成关税协议，对我国纺织出口有所影响。上周，越南和美国正 式达成贸易协议，美国对越关税从 46%降至 20%，越南对美全面 0 关税。另外， 对于任何转运货物，美方征收 40%的关税。 美越贸易协议可能导致部分美国采 购商将订单进一步向越南转移。代工端：代工制造企业如鞋、服等供应商，相对 属于劳动密集型生产模式，由于劳动力成本、贸易壁垒等原因，在中国产能占比 下降较早，大部分已经布局在东南亚。重点企业方面，申洲国际海外产能占比接 近 6 成，分布于越南和柬埔寨；华利集团产能全部在海外，主要是越南，少部分 在印尼。次轮美越谈判有利于这些企业的订单稳定。原材料端：虽然此次贸易谈 判对转口贸易提出了限制，但越南对中国原材料依赖度高，越南纺织企业仍需大 量从中国进口棉花、棉纱、坯布、面料等原料。但是长期看，越南将通过一些产 业政策减少对中国工业进口的依赖。我们认为纱线、面料企业的产业转移将持续。 服装家纺：户外行业或将持续火热。2025 亚洲（夏季）运动用品与时尚展开幕。 数据显 ...

反内卷政策落地加速构建水泥等行 业供需新平衡 2025 年 7 月 7 日 看好/维持 建材 行业报告 2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会第六次会议强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场 建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品 品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。 点评： 政策不断推进反内卷逐步在 2025 年落地，推动建材行业高质量发展。"防止内 卷式恶性竞争"在 2024 年 7 月的中共中央政治局会议上首次提出，2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议中进一步强调要"综合整治内卷式竞争"。2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经第六次会议再次强调"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点 难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产 能有序退出。"2025 年 7 月 1 日水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反 内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》，"反内卷"政策作为中央提出的政 策正在 2025 年逐步落地，成为推动建材行业高质量发展的重要动力。 水泥等行业反内卷政策力度会逐步加大，见实见效加速助力供给端优化。水泥 协会反内卷文件中明确提出：实际产能大于备 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 3.商务部等 9 部门：联合印发《2025 年家政兴农行动工作方案》。该方案从四 个方面提出 14 项具体任务，旨在扩大家政服务供给，促进家政服务消费，助 力乡村振兴。主要措施包括：支持农村劳动力在家政领域就业，开展生活服 务招聘季活动；提升就业能力，推进家政服务员技能升级和职业教育发展； 完善就业保障，加强住房保障和基本公共服务；优化创业就业服务，支持重 点群体就业创业。下一步，商务部将联合相关部门推动政策落实，充分发挥 家政服务业在惠民生、稳就业、促消费方面的重要作用。（资料来源：同花顺） 4.中国人民银行：开展 1065 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作。人民银行 7 日公告称， 以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1065 亿元逆回购操作，中标利率为 1.4%。 今日公开市场有 3315 亿元逆回购到期，净回笼 2250 亿元。（资料来源：同花 顺） 5.三大交易所：正式实施程序化交易监管新规。7 月 7 日起，沪深北三大交易 所《程序化交易管理实施细则》正式实施，重点强化高频交易监管。新规明 确了四类异常交易行为认定标准，包括瞬时申报速率异常、频繁瞬时撤单等， 并将单账户每秒申报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with structural opportunities dominating. Focus on "category innovation + channel efficiency" is essential for capturing profit recovery and differentiation opportunities [4][6][37] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, the food and beverage industry achieved a total revenue of CNY 1,091.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.92%, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 5.51% to CNY 217.11 billion. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue growth of 2.54% and a slight net profit increase of 0.27% [4][23] Alcoholic Beverages - The wine sector is facing a weak macro environment, with revenue growth slowing to 1.68% in Q1 2025. The sector is under pressure from inventory levels and a recent ban on alcohol, which is expected to suppress demand in the short term [5][24][26] Snack Foods - The snack food sector is projected to grow by 12.74% in 2024, but growth slowed to 0.29% in Q1 2025. Despite challenges, there are opportunities in specific categories like konjac products, which have seen growth rates exceeding 70% [6][39][54] Condiments - The condiment sector is benefiting from cost reductions due to falling raw material prices, with gross margins improving to 36.38% in Q1 2025. However, demand is showing signs of divergence between B2B and B2C segments [7][14] Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is under pressure, with revenue and profit declining further in Q1 2025. However, the baking segment is experiencing significant growth due to new retail formats and consumer demand [8][19] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is witnessing a recovery in profitability as raw milk prices stabilize. In Q1 2025, major companies like Yili and Bright Dairy reported net profit increases of 24.19% and 2.45%, respectively [9][20] Key Companies and Forecasts - Key companies such as Kweichow Moutai and Three Squirrels are expected to maintain strong performance, with Moutai projected to achieve a revenue growth of around 9% in 2025 [12][35][58]

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