Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [4][3]. Core Views - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1]. - The focus for 2025 will shift towards increasing market share, with a target business volume of 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1]. - The company experienced a decline in single-ticket revenue, dropping from 1.36 CNY in Q1 2024 to 1.25 CNY in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased subsidies and a decrease in single-ticket weight [2]. - Operating expenses significantly decreased to 283 million CNY in Q1 2025 from 735 million CNY in Q1 2024, largely due to government subsidies and tax refunds [2]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a strategy shift back to prioritizing market share, which may lead to slower profit growth in the short term [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 9.52 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 38.42 billion CNY in 2023 to 49.90 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.68% [8]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 19.24% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 15.94% [8].

公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）：价格战导致 收入端承压，份额增长依旧是经营重心 事件：公司发布 2025 一季报，公司单季完成业务量 85.40 亿件，同比增长 19.1%，市场份额下降 0.4pct 至 18.9%。公司调整后净利润 22.59 亿元，同比 增长 1.6%。 业务量增速回升，但略低于行业均值，25 年重点提升份额：24 年 Q1-Q4，中 通业务量增速分别为 13.9%、10.1%、15.9%和 11.0%，可以看到 24 年整体 业务量增速偏低。25 年公司将工作重心转向提升市场份额，Q1 业务量增速提 升至 19.1%，但还略低于行业增速的 21.6%，主要系低价件整体维持了较快增 长，导致行业整体增速较高。公司维持 25 年业务量 408-422 亿件，同比增长 20-24%的指引不变，按照指引，预计后续几个季度公司业务量增速较 Q1 有所 提升。 单票收入下降 0.11 元，主要系增量补贴提升：Q1 行业竞争较为激烈，导致公 司单票收入由 24Q1 的 1.36 元降至 25Q1 的 1.25 元。其中单票增量补贴增加 导致单票收入下降 0.16 元，以及单票重量下 ...

行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：4 月猪价震荡，企 业出栏体重上行 4 月上市企业销售数据： 风险提示：畜禽价格波动风险，上市企业出栏量扩张不及预期，动物疫病风险， 企业成本控制不及预期等。 未来 3-6 个月行业大事： 无 2025 年 5 月 22 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：4 月生猪价格震荡，仔猪价格表现偏强。农业农村部监测数据 显示，2025 年 4 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 39.16 元/公斤、15.20 元/公 斤和 26.07 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 5.15%、-1.00%和-1.19%。4 月猪价围 绕 15 元/公斤窄幅震荡，五一期间全国生猪价格以稳为主，局地小幅震荡，截 止 5 月 15 日，全国出栏生猪均价 14.98 元/公斤。 供应端：24 年年中能繁母猪存栏微增，对应 4 月出栏生猪量整体充足，叠加 饲料成本低位，养殖压栏增重意愿增强，生猪体重整体增长。需求端：4 月二 次育肥补栏增加，截留标猪货源；下旬五一备货积极性提升，共同对猪价形成 支撑。4 月生猪屠宰开工率回升 1.42 个百分点至 27.53%，屠宰企业收购顺畅。 ...

投资摘要： 2024 年机械板块涨幅落后，2025 年以来涨幅居前。2024 年全年申万机械设备指数上涨 5.04%，相较于其他行业涨幅排名 靠后，跑输上证指数 7.63 个百分点，跑输深证成指 4.3 个百分点。2025 年初至今，申万机械设备一级行业指数涨幅 10.44%， 相较于其他行业排名居首，跑赢上证指数 10.43 个百分点，跑赢深证成指 12.52 个百分点。从利润端来看，2025 年一季度机 械行业扣非归母净利润 274.96 亿元，同比下滑 30.03%，绝对值和同比增速均创 2021Q1 以来新高。 机械行业：2025 年中期策略——盈利能力 持续改善，关注新质生产力 通用机械建议关注工程机械和压缩机。2025 年 4 月 PMI 同比下降 2.78%，制造业景气度回落。2025 年 1-3 月固定资产投资 （不含农户）累计增长 4.2%。后续随着逆周期持续发力，更加积极的财政政策有望提振通用机械景气度，建议关注工程机 械和压缩机。政府工作报告提出实施更加积极的财政政策，今年拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元，比上年增加 3000 亿元； 加快实施一批重点项目，推动"十四五"规划重大工程 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the machinery industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The machinery sector underperformed in 2024 but has shown strong performance in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 10.44%, outperforming major indices [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of new quality productivity and suggests focusing on sectors such as low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][10] Summary by Sections Investment Summary - The machinery equipment index increased by 5.04% in 2024, lagging behind other sectors, while in 2025, it has risen by 10.44%, leading among sectors [4][19] - In Q1 2025, the machinery industry reported a net profit of 27.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.03%, marking the highest absolute value and growth rate since Q1 2021 [4][27] General Machinery Focus - The report recommends focusing on engineering machinery and compressors, anticipating a boost in demand due to government policies and infrastructure projects [5][44] - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds and accelerate key projects, which is expected to enhance the demand for engineering machinery [48] - Beneficiary companies include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG [5][48] New Quality Productivity - Policies are expected to focus on enhancing overall factor productivity, particularly in low-altitude economy and deep-sea technology [6][8] - The low-altitude economy is projected to benefit from government funding and is expected to see significant growth in drone deliveries and eVTOL aircraft by 2035 [7][8] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant potential for domestic equipment replacement in deep-water oil extraction [9][10] Humanoid Robots and Industrial Mother Machines - Humanoid robots are seen as a solution for customization in manufacturing, with a growing number of application scenarios expected by 2025 [10][11] - Industrial mother machines are essential for reducing costs in mass production of core components for humanoid robots, with a focus on enhancing profitability through scale effects [11][12]

行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：4 月猪价震荡，企 业出栏体重上行 2025 年 5 月 22 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：4 月生猪价格震荡，仔猪价格表现偏强。农业农村部监测数据 显示，2025 年 4 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 39.16 元/公斤、15.20 元/公 斤和 26.07 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 5.15%、-1.00%和-1.19%。4 月猪价围 绕 15 元/公斤窄幅震荡，五一期间全国生猪价格以稳为主，局地小幅震荡，截 止 5 月 15 日，全国出栏生猪均价 14.98 元/公斤。 供应端：24 年年中能繁母猪存栏微增，对应 4 月出栏生猪量整体充足，叠加 饲料成本低位，养殖压栏增重意愿增强，生猪体重整体增长。需求端：4 月二 次育肥补栏增加，截留标猪货源；下旬五一备货积极性提升，共同对猪价形成 支撑。4 月生猪屠宰开工率回升 1.42 个百分点至 27.53%，屠宰企业收购顺畅。 3 月白毛比价 1.37，4 月毛白价差 4.33 元/公斤，终端消费底部小幅回升。供 给端出栏节奏与二育对短期价格影响更大。 建议持续关注大宗原料走势。5 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 5 月 21 日星期三 分析师推荐 【东兴商社】黄金珠宝行业：金价上行带来业绩分化，关注行业发展新趋势 （20250520） 金价上行压抑黄金珠宝消费需求，行业 2024 年度和 2025 年一季度收入和业 绩表现较弱，港股公司表现好于 A 股公司。2024 年 A 股黄金珠宝行业营收同 比下降 4.73%，归母净利润同比下降 17.75%。A 股+港股黄金珠宝行业营收同 比增长 3.28%，归母净利润同比增长 9.87%。根据中国黄金协会数据，上海黄 金交易所 Au9999 黄金价格全年上涨 27.87%，催生黄金投资需求但压抑消费 需求，行业收入和利润表现整体偏弱，但港股公司表现明显好于 A 股公司。 2025 年一季度 A 股黄金珠宝行业营收同比下降 25.22%，归母净利润同比增长 3.46%。2025 年 Q1 金价延续上行态势，行业收入表现疲软，但受益于部分公 司利润端改善明显，行业整体盈利能力有所恢复。 行业内公司业绩表现分化严重，金价持续上行总体来看对消费的需求影响是 负向的，但仍有部分公司取得较快的业绩增长表现，我们将业绩表现较好的 公司分为两大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for CNOOC Services [4] Core Views - CNOOC Services achieved a total revenue of 48.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.137 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 10.8 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase, with net profit soaring by 39.6% to 888 million yuan [1][10] Summary by Sections Drilling Services - The average daily revenue for semi-submersible drilling platforms increased to 143,000 USD, a rise of 7.5% year-on-year. The drilling segment generated 13.2 billion yuan in revenue, up 9.4% year-on-year. Despite a decrease in operational days due to typhoons, Q1 2025 saw an 11.4% increase in operational days, with semi-submersible daily rates maintaining a high level [2][3] Oilfield Technical Services - Revenue from oilfield technical services reached 27.655 billion yuan in 2024, up 7.4%, with the technical segment's contribution rising to 57%. The core business line showed improved operational volume and R&D efficiency, supporting resilient gross margins [2][3] Other Businesses - The ship service segment saw a significant increase in operational volume, up 33.8% in 2024 and 44.9% in Q1 2025. However, the geophysical segment experienced fluctuations due to project cycles, with a notable decline in Q1 2025 [3] Financial Health - The company improved its debt structure, with a decrease in current liabilities to 2.91 billion yuan, down 1.69% year-on-year. Operating cash flow was 11 billion yuan, a decline of 15.9% due to increased operating costs [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing demand in deepwater and technical services, with a focus on international expansion and technological advancements. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.729 billion, 5.896 billion, and 7.487 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.24, and 1.57 yuan [10][11]

Weekly Insights - The market has returned to a normal state, maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern as the US-China tariff dispute has come to a close, leading to a decrease in concerns regarding the index [4][7] - The market is currently focused on rhythm and opportunities, with an increase in individual stock opportunities, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks following the implementation of new restructuring regulations [4][7] - The restructuring and mergers in emerging industries are expected to significantly improve the asset quality of the A-share market, enhancing market activity and profit potential [4][7] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a high position and actively participate in structural investment opportunities, as the market is expected to continue its oscillation until July [5][8] - Given the low trading volume, large-cap sectors may struggle to sustain upward momentum, making it reasonable to engage in sector rotation strategies [5][8] - There is an expectation of a rebound in undervalued sectors as interest rates continue to decline, with institutional funds likely to favor low-valuation, high-dividend stocks [5][8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on small and mid-cap stocks in May, as the market's restructuring style is expected to strengthen significantly, particularly represented by the CSI 1000 index [6][9] - Continue to look for opportunities in the large technology sector, which presents good entry points for investment [6][9] - Pay attention to the new consumption sector, particularly companies with relevant IP, as they are likely to create new consumption scenarios and business models [6][9] Market Data - The overall market rebounded this week, with the ChiNext index showing the largest increase [10] - The trading volume has decreased, indicating weaker market activity [15] - The financing balance has also declined as market activity has noticeably decreased [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for CNOOC Services [4] Core Views - CNOOC Services achieved a total revenue of 48.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.137 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 10.8 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase, with net profit soaring by 39.6% to 888 million yuan [1][10] Summary by Sections Drilling Services - The average daily revenue for semi-submersible drilling platforms increased to 143,000 USD, a rise of 7.5% year-on-year. The drilling segment generated 13.2 billion yuan in revenue, up 9.4% year-on-year. Despite a decrease in operational days due to typhoons, Q1 2025 saw an 11.4% increase in operational days, with semi-submersible daily rates maintaining a high level [2][3] Oilfield Technical Services - Revenue from oilfield technical services reached 27.655 billion yuan in 2024, up 7.4%, with the technical segment's contribution rising to 57%. The core business line's operational volume increased year-on-year, supported by improved R&D efficiency [2][3] Other Businesses - The ship service segment saw a significant increase in operational volume, up 33.8% in 2024 and 44.9% in Q1 2025. However, the geophysical segment experienced fluctuations due to project cycles, with a notable decline in Q1 2025 [3] Financial Health - The company improved its debt structure, with current liabilities decreasing by 1.69% year-on-year. Operating cash flow for 2024 was 11 billion yuan, down 15.9% due to a 9.8% increase in operating costs. The financial expense ratio decreased to 1.29% [3][10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing demand in deepwater fields and technological services, with a focus on international expansion and increased overseas orders. The report anticipates net profits of 4.729 billion yuan, 5.896 billion yuan, and 7.487 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][11]