东 兴 晨 报 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 经济要闻 1.商务部：将充分释放制度型开放红利。商务部部长助理唐文弘在国务院政 策例行吹风会上表示，商务部将重点推进企业和群众急需的试点举措落地见 效，在更大范围内推动规则规制、管理标准相通相融，充分释放制度型开放 红利。《关于做好自由贸易试验区全面对接国际高标准经贸规则推进高水平制 度型开放试点措施复制推广工作的通知》近日对外发布。《通知》明确将向全 国或其他自贸试验区复制推广总计 77 条试点措施，涵盖服务贸易、货物贸易、 数字贸易、知识产权保护、政府采购改革、"边境后"管理制度改革、风险防 控等 7 个方面。（资料来源：同花顺） 2.工信部：对整治光伏行业无序竞争的力度将更大。由工业和信息化部组织 召开的第十五次制造企业座谈会，将范围锁定在光伏行业。共计 14 家光伏行 业企业及光伏行业协会负责人交流发言，并提出政策建议。参会的光伏企业 负责人表示，国家相关部门已经走访国内主要光伏企业，要求企业于近期尽 快上报成本价格，"如果后续继续低于成本价销售，就有可能会受到重罚。" 另据此次座谈会透露，工业和信息化部将进一步加大宏观引导和行业治理， 强化标准引领 ...

行 业 研 究 电力设备及新能源行业：固态电池 产业化提速，关注产业链投资机遇 事件： 近日，多家锂电龙头公布全固态电池研发进展。6 月，亿纬锂能在其周年庆典 宣布，将在 2026 年推出能量密度达到 350Wh/kg 和 800Wh/L 的全固态电池 1.0，在 2028 年推出 1000Wh/L 以上的全固态电池 2.0。孚能科技在互动平台 表示，其第二代半固态电池预计于 2025 年量产，全固态电池研发进展顺利， 能量密度 400-500Wh/kg 的 60Ah 硫化物全固态电池计划于 2025 年底小批量 交付。赣锋锂业公告，公司已形成固态电池全链路布局，覆盖硫化物电解质及 原材料、氧化物电解质、金属锂负极等关键环节。 点评： 固态电池满足高性能需求，有望受益新应用领域发展。相对传统锂电池，固态 电池通过使用如高镍正极、硅基或锂金属负极更高性能、更激进的电池材料体 系，可以实现更高的能量密度与充放电倍率，理论上全固态锂电池的电芯能量 密度可达 900Wh/kg。固态电池采用不可燃固态电解质取代易燃有机电解液， 且固态电解质具备较高的弹性模量，在提升电池热稳定性的同时可有效抑制锂 枝晶刺破隔膜导致短路的 ...

| | | 3400 点有效突破可能性较大:我们在年度策略判断本轮行情是结构性慢牛,目前来看市场走势正在强化,中期货将我们提 出目前时点,A 股正站在新一轮结构性侵牛的起点,3400突破以后是新征程的起点,市场有望展开新一轮慢牛。 核心逻辑: 1) 全球化与逆全球化的矛盾。逆转不了中国全球化的布局、未来重塑的是全球贸易利益新格局，在经历贸易战之后,中国 海外布局必将加快进程。2)中国制造业作为全球产业链的核心,凭借其规模、供应链完整性、创新能力和成本效率,长期 占据竞争优势地位。2011年起,中国制造业增加值超越美国成为全球最大的制造业大国,凸显其不可替代性。3）中国军事 实力提升,是中国全球化进程的战略保障,有利于一带一路布局和企业整体性出海的战略自信,随着中国军事力量逐步具备 全球投射能力、全球对中国资产信心度提升将会起到促进作用。4）中国股市资产质量逐步优化,IPO 发行从注重融资数量 的增量思维向提高存量思维转变，2024年开始 IPO 融资规模大幅降低,同时，并购重组日益受到管理层重视，连续出台鼓 关证券股份有限公司证券 报 H A 股策略周报:开启新征程 2025年7月2日 策略周报 东兴证券策略 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience and growth potential of the logistics and procurement sector in China, with a total social logistics volume of 138.7 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels [2] - China's foreign trade shows unique resilience, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months, marking a 2.5% year-on-year increase [2] - The industrial sector's profit has seen a slight decline, with profits totaling 2.72 trillion yuan in the first five months, down 1.1% year-on-year, influenced by insufficient effective demand and declining industrial product prices [2] - The small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sector is rapidly developing, with over 60 million SMEs expected by the end of 2024, and significant growth in revenue for large-scale industrial SMEs [2] Industry Analysis - The pet food industry shows strong consumer resilience, with pet food sales reaching 7.5 billion yuan during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a robust growth trend [7][8] - The report identifies a shift towards health-oriented and refined pet food products, with emerging categories like air-dried and baked food experiencing rapid growth [7] - The export of pet food has faced challenges due to tariff disruptions, with a 5.52% year-on-year decline in export volume in May, but the long-term impact is expected to be manageable [9] - The oil service engineering sector is experiencing high demand due to increased capital expenditure in the upstream oil and gas sector, with significant revenue growth projected for companies like CNOOC [11][12][15] - The report forecasts that CNOOC's capital expenditure will range from 125 billion to 135 billion yuan in 2025, driving further growth in oil service engineering business [14][15]

行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：宠物 618 战报出炉， 国产品牌持续霸榜 2025 年 6 月 27 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 各电商渠道表现出不同的消费偏好。相比天猫品牌榜，京东品牌榜单中有更多 海外品牌上榜，皇家位居猫狗干粮品牌榜首。抖音和快手是部分新锐品牌的重 要营销阵地，但产品更迭很快。24 年 618 抖音商城宠物榜 Top5 中的喵梵思、 宽福、普安特今年未上榜，金故则凭借内容营销在抖音上赢得不错的客户声誉， 跻身品牌榜第二位。值得关注的是，乖宝集团旗下麦富迪和弗列加特在各个电 商平台均有不错表现，充分体现了公司全渠道的品牌影响力。 出口业务受关税阶段性扰动。海关总署出口数据显示，25 年 5 月我国宠物食 品出口数量 2.89 万吨，同比下滑 5.52%，出口金额 1.27 亿美元，同比下滑 0.35%。宠物食品出口业务受到中美关税战的阶段性扰动，目前各家企业已积 极在海外扩产，转移对美订单，开拓非美区域订单，预计整体影响可控。 我们认为，宠物食品出口业务受关税政策短期扰动，预计中长期影响有限。国 内市场消费稳步增长，国产品牌已重塑市场格局，市占率和盈利能力有望持续 提升，我们持续看好 ...

油服工程：全球油气上游资本开支仍将保 持较高景气度，带动油服工程盈利增长 2025 年 6 月 27 日 看好/维持 石油石化 行业报告 | | | 投资摘要： 2024 年以来至 2025 第一季度，海外通胀减缓，国内经济缓慢修复，油服工程板块盈利表现亮眼。 2024 年以来，美国通胀压力有所减缓，CPI 同比上涨幅度逐步下降，截至年底低于 3%。2025 年第一季度 美国通胀压力继续减缓，始终维持在 3%以下。作为全球需求端代表美国的通胀压力有所换缓和，也意味着 大宗商品（原油）的估值压力有所缓解。同时，随着国内经济的缓慢修复，对油服工程的需求也逐步提升， 2025 年 1 月至 5 月，国内制造业 PMI 围绕荣枯线 50 上下波动。国内 A 股油服工程板块，2024 年共实现 营收 3108.44 亿元，同比增长 4.70%，归母净利润达 109.16 亿元，同比增长 10.79%。2025Q1 共实现营 收 634.06 亿元，同比增长 4.08%，归母净利润 27.13 亿元，同比增长 20.77%。 油服工程：未来油气需求量增长，自全球油气上游资本支出改善以来，油服行业保持较高景气度。 国内油气 ...

Economic News - The Chinese government is focusing on maintaining international economic cooperation and promoting high-quality development through multilateral organizations such as APEC and BRICS [1] - In May, national lottery sales reached 57.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, driven by increased sports events [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 300 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 118 billion yuan for June [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that foreign investment enterprises must report their domestic investment information, with pilot regions including Jiangsu and Shanghai [1] Company Insights - China Construction Bank issued 11.589 billion shares to raise 105 billion yuan [5] - Guoxuan High-Tech's all-solid-state battery is in the trial production stage, with samples sent to customers for testing [5] - Changchun Technology expects a net profit growth of 67.54% to 95.46% in the first half of 2025 [5] - Nanjing Commercial Travel plans to acquire 100% equity of Nanjing Huangpu Hotel through share issuance and cash payment [5] - Tianji Co., Ltd. is progressing with research and testing related to lithium sulfide [5] Industry Analysis Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a price-driven asset pricing model, with demand-side changes significantly impacting pricing and profitability [6] - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve in the second half of the year, with a focus on cyclical sectors like liquor and new consumption trends [7] - Key recommendations include companies like Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Jin Zai Foods, which are expected to benefit from channel advantages and performance reversals [7] Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing market is supported by national subsidies, although real estate sales are declining [8] - The home furnishing retail sales grew by 25.6% in May, driven by subsidies, while exports are under pressure [8] - Recommended companies include Gujia Home, Sophia, and Zhibang Home, which have strong dividend yields and brand advantages [8] Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile and apparel industry is seeing a slow recovery in domestic sales, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales in May [9] - Investment focus should be on quality brands like Hailan Home and Fuanna, as well as sports brands like Anta, which are expanding internationally [9] - Textile exports showed a slight increase of 2.5% in the first five months, while apparel exports decreased by 0.5% [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage sector's asset pricing is significantly influenced by demand-side changes and expectations, particularly in the context of economic recovery policies implemented since September 2024 [7][8] - It highlights that price movements are crucial indicators for asset pricing in the food and beverage industry, reflecting market competition and impacting corporate profit levels [7][8] Food and Beverage Industry Summary - The food and beverage sector has experienced a price-driven recovery following economic stimulus measures, with a notable increase in profitability linked to price changes [7] - The report suggests that macroeconomic price indicators will be key to observing industry trends in the second half of 2025, with a focus on the recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) [8] - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Yili, Jin Zai Food, and Fuling Pickles, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in demand and pricing [8] Home Furnishing Industry Summary - The home furnishing sector is supported by national subsidies, although domestic demand is pressured by declining real estate sales [9] - The report notes a 25.6% year-on-year increase in retail sales for home furnishings in May 2025, driven by these subsidies [9] - Key companies to watch include Gujia Home, Sophia, and Zhibang Home, which are expected to provide stable dividends and have strong market positions [9] Textile and Apparel Industry Summary - The textile and apparel sector is seeing a slow recovery in domestic sales, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in total retail sales in May 2025 [10] - The report highlights the importance of quality brands like Hailan Home and Fuanna, as well as sportswear brands like Anta, which are expanding internationally [10] - Export data shows a 2.5% year-on-year increase in textile exports, while apparel exports have slightly declined, indicating mixed performance in international markets [10] Market Performance Summary - The textile and apparel industry experienced a decline of 5.12% in the last week, reflecting broader market trends [11] - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment is cautious, with various sectors facing challenges [11]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that price is a crucial observation factor for asset pricing in the food and beverage industry, particularly in the context of economic recovery and demand-side changes [4][14][32] - The food and beverage sector is expected to see an improvement in overall market conditions in the second half of the year, driven by macroeconomic stimulus policies and a recovery in demand [5][15][33] Price as an Important Observation Variable - The report highlights the significance of the Producer Price Index (PPI) as a leading indicator for corporate profitability, suggesting that price changes are a clear early signal for the food and beverage sector [16][18] - The correlation between the BCI consumer price index and retail sales indicates that price trends are closely linked to overall consumption sentiment [16][17] Industry Strategy - The strategy for the food and beverage sector in the latter half of the year includes focusing on cyclical sectors like liquor, new consumption channels, and sectors with expected operational reversals [5][15][33] - Key recommended companies include Kweichow Moutai, Yili Group, Jin Zai Foods, and Fuling Mustard [5][15][33] Company Profit Forecasts and Ratings - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 74.90 in 2025 with a strong buy rating, while Yili Group is expected to reach an EPS of 1.74 with a buy rating [6] - Jin Zai Foods and Fuling Mustard are also highlighted with strong buy ratings, indicating positive expectations for their performance [6]

Economic News - The State Council has issued regulations for internet platform companies regarding tax information reporting, aiming to enhance tax service efficiency and promote healthy development of the platform economy [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 40 billion yuan of government bonds, with a competitive bidding process scheduled for June 24, 2025 [2] - The average price of pork in national agricultural wholesale markets has decreased by 1.2% compared to last week, with the current price at 20.08 yuan per kilogram [5] - As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity in the country reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, with solar power capacity growing by 56.9% [5] Company News - WuXi AppTec has completed a 1 billion yuan share buyback and plans to cancel the shares [6] - Guotou Zhonglu intends to acquire controlling interest in Electronic Institute, with stock suspension not exceeding 10 trading days [6] - Inspur Information plans to repurchase shares worth 200 million to 300 million yuan [6] - Yachuang Electronics intends to purchase a 37.0337% stake in Shanghai Analog for 298 million yuan [6] - Xiamen Xinda plans to transfer 100% equity of Xinda Investment for 86.6655 million yuan [6] Industry Insights - In May, the national express delivery service volume reached 17.318 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, although the growth rate has slowed [7][8] - SF Express has shown significant growth, achieving a market share increase of 0.9 percentage points, with a business volume growth of 31.8% in May [8] - The average single ticket price in the express delivery industry has slightly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 7.6% [9] - The ongoing price competition in the industry is intense, with major players like Shentong and Yunda experiencing significant drops in single ticket revenue [9][10] - The report suggests that the price war is entering a critical phase, with a focus on service quality becoming essential for survival and profitability in the industry [10]