证券研究报告 行 2024年05月09日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 国防军工 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 国联低空经济系列研究-基建领域投资框架初探 深 国防军工 沪深300 度 10% 研 ➢ 低空新基建的目的在于解决空域放开后新的飞行特点带来的飞行难题 究 -7% 低空新基建或为目前低空经济商业化开展的重要前置投资，具备投资的必 要性及紧迫性。必要性体现在低空新基建是解决低空飞行器“飞起来”的 -23% 必要保障，而紧迫性体现在空域改革后带来的飞行高度下探、飞行密度增 -40% 加、多种异构飞行器的飞行耦合以及集中式向分布式的发展为低空带来了 2023/5 2023/9 2024/1 2024/5 诸如频谱资源管理难、网络资源配置难、空域资源监管难等问题。 ➢ “软基建”角度或重点发展低空航路设计和低空空管转型 作者 类比于地面交通，数字航路建设或为低空空域数字化管理的第一步，以北 分析师：吴爽 斗网格码等技术为代表的数字化空域管理办法，将空域冲突控制、离散数 执业证书编号：S0590523110001 字网格空间的概率预测控制计算问题转化为大规模对象的协同控制提供了 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company reported a nearly 20% growth in net profit for Q1 2024, driven by effective cost control and significant improvement in non-interest income [2]. - The bank's interest margin showed resilience despite slight narrowing, with a net interest margin of 2.83% [2]. - Asset quality remains stable, with non-performing loan ratio at 0.76% and provision coverage ratio at 539.18% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.01% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 952 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.80% [2]. - Non-interest income saw remarkable growth, with commission income and other non-interest income increasing by 635.41% and 67.00% respectively [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 10.95 billion, 12.15 billion, and 13.60 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 10.98%, 10.89%, and 11.95% [3][7]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 3.82 billion, 4.52 billion, and 5.24 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.42%, 18.19%, and 16.08% [3][7]. - The target price is set at 10.14 yuan, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1x for 2024 [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 7.64 CNY [21]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth is being impacted by a decline in non-interest income, with a reported revenue of 200.93 billion CNY in Q1 2024, down 2.97% year-on-year [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was 86.82 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 2.17% year-on-year [12]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.36% as of Q1 2024, showing a slight improvement from the previous year [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 772.32 billion CNY, 787.28 billion CNY, and 811.35 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.34%, 1.94%, and 3.06% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 334.34 billion CNY, 342.44 billion CNY, and 354.68 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 0.51%, 2.42%, and 3.58% respectively [4][5]. - The bank's net interest margin for Q1 2024 was reported at 1.57%, a decrease of 13 basis points compared to the previous year, primarily due to pressure on the asset side [3][4]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2024, the bank's provision coverage ratio was 238.17%, indicating a strong capacity to cover potential loan losses [4]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 14.11%, providing sufficient capital support for future expansion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group (01299) with a target price of HKD 80.0 [24] Core Views - AIA Group's NBV (New Business Value) for Q1 2024 reached USD 1.327 billion, a 31% YoY growth at constant exchange rates [3][7] - The company announced an additional USD 2 billion to its existing USD 10 billion share buyback program, to be completed within 12 months, exceeding market expectations [3][17] - AIA China and Hong Kong were the primary contributors to NBV growth, with YoY increases of 38% and 43%, respectively [7] - The company's optimized capital management policy includes a target dividend payout ratio of 75% of free surplus net amount, reflecting strong governance and confidence in future growth [17] Financial Performance - Annualized new premiums for Q1 2024 were USD 2.449 billion, up 26% YoY, with a new business value margin improving by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2% [7] - The agent channel contributed a 20% YoY increase in NBV, while the partner distribution channel saw a 70% YoY increase due to improved channel value rates [7] - AIA's total assets are projected to grow from USD 270.471 billion in 2022 to USD 350.804 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from USD 3.365 billion in 2022 to USD 5.430 billion in 2026 [10][15] Regional Performance - Mainland China's NBV growth outperformed domestic peers, driven by the "Best Agents" model, with new agent numbers and active new agent numbers both growing over 20% YoY [7] - Hong Kong's NBV growth was fueled by increased contributions from mainland tourists following the reopening of borders [7] - All other regions also achieved double-digit NBV growth, supported by the company's superior channel strategy and high-value products [7] Valuation and Forecasts - The report forecasts AIA's net profit attributable to shareholders to grow to USD 4.316 billion in 2024, USD 4.965 billion in 2025, and USD 5.405 billion in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 15%, 15%, and 9%, respectively [23] - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to increase from USD 68.865 billion in 2022 to USD 72.277 billion in 2026, with EV per share (EVPS) rising from USD 4.86 in 2022 to USD 5.10 in 2026 [18] Capital Management - AIA's optimized capital management policy includes a commitment to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, starting from 2024 [17] - The company plans to review its capital position regularly and return any excess capital beyond operational needs [17]

证券研究报告 公 2024年05月09日 司 报 告 徐工机械(000425) │ 行 业： 机械设备/工程机械 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 当前价格： 7.38元 年 公司海外业务持续放量，毛利率持续提升 目标价格： 8.68元 报 点 事件： 评 基本数据 公司2023年实现营收928.48亿元，同比下降1.03%；实现归母净利润53.26 11,816.17/8,120.0 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 9 亿元，同比增长 23.51%。公司 2024Q1 实现营收 241.74 亿元，同比增长 流通A股市值(百万元) 59,926.26 1.18%；实现归母净利润16亿元，同比增长5.06%。 每股净资产(元) 4.89 ➢ 2023年公司高空作业平台保持较高速增长，海外业务创造历史高点 资产负债率(%) 64.01 分产品看，公司起重机械/土方机械/混凝土机械/桩工机械/高空作业机械 /矿业机械/道路机械/其他工程机械、备件及其他分别实现收入 一年内最高/最低(元) 7.73/4.91 211.87/225.6/104.25/34.59/88.83/58.61/38.18/166.54亿元，分别 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 6.64 CNY, maintaining the current price of 4.86 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 89.43 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.93 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.35% year-on-year [3]. - The decline in revenue growth is attributed to a significant drop in commission income, which fell by 18.21% year-on-year due to the "one-stop" policy affecting insurance agency income [3]. - The bank's loan balance reached 8.52 trillion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.80%, indicating a healthy credit issuance environment [3]. - The net interest margin for Q1 2024 was 1.92%, slightly narrowing compared to the previous year, primarily due to asset-side pressures [3]. - The bank's asset quality showed slight fluctuations, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84% as of Q1 2024, indicating sufficient risk coverage capacity with a provision coverage ratio of 326.87% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 349.97 billion CNY, 368.09 billion CNY, and 394.86 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.18%, 5.18%, and 7.27% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 87.52 billion CNY, 91.83 billion CNY, and 98.38 billion CNY, with growth rates of 1.45%, 4.93%, and 7.12% respectively [4]. - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.82 CNY, with a book value per share (BVPS) of 8.48 CNY [4].

证券研究报告 2024 年 05 月 09 日 公 司 报 告│ 金 融 - 公 司 季 报 点 评 宁波银行(002142) 息差逆势回升，信贷增长强劲 事件： 宁波银行公布 24 年一季报，24Q1 实现营收 175.09 亿元，同比+5.78%，增 速较 23 年-0.63PCT；归母净利润 70.13 亿元，同比+6.29%，增速较 23 年 -4.37PCT。 ➢ 中收拖累整体营收，拨备反哺力度减弱 宁波银行营收增速边际下降，主要受到中收拖累。24Q1 宁波银行中收为 14.36 亿元，同比-22.84%，预计主要系代理类业务表现依旧较弱。宁波银 行归母净利润增速边际下降，主要系生息资产规模扩张放缓以及拨备反哺 力度减弱。从业绩归因来看，24Q1 宁波银行生息资产规模、拨备计提对净 利润的贡献度分别为+14.29%、+1.72%，较 23 年分别-2.32PCT、-5.48PCT。 ➢ 息差业务表现强劲，净息差逆势回升 24Q1 宁波银行利息净收入同比+12.18%，增速 23 年+3.16PCT。从信贷投放 来看，截至 24Q1 末，宁波银行贷款余额为 1.36 万亿元，同比+24.18%，增 速 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年05月09日 司 报 告 口子窖(603589) │ 行 业： 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 当前价格： 42.82元 季 年报及一季报点评：收入利润符合预期，兼系列稳步推进 目标价格： 47.40元 报 点 事件： 评 公司发布2023年报及2024年一季报，2023年/2024Q1公司分别实现收入 基本数据 59.62/17.68 亿元，分别同比增长 16.10%/11.05%；分别实现归母净利润 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 600.00/596.87 17.21/5.89亿元，分别同比增长11.04%/10.02%。 流通A股市值(百万元) 25,557.79 ➢ 收入利润符合预期，现金回款快于收入 每股净资产(元) 17.21 2023 年/2024Q1 公司分别实现收入 59.62/17.68 亿元，分别同比增长 16.10%/11.05%；分别实现归母净利润 17.21/5.89 亿元，分别同比增长 资产负债率(%) 20.53 11.04%/10.02%。2024Q1公司合同负债3.75亿元，同比减少15.71%，环比 一年内最高/最低(元) 6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.87 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a decrease of 38% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion yuan, down 45% year-on-year [2]. - The report indicates that the investment banking business is under pressure, and investment fluctuations have negatively impacted performance [2]. - The company is expected to recover as the equity market stabilizes, with a target price set at 45.05 yuan, reflecting a price-to-book ratio of 2 times for 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2024, the company's brokerage business net income was 830 million yuan, down 33% year-on-year and 18.2% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 21.7% of the main securities revenue [3]. - The asset management business generated net income of 270 million yuan, a decrease of 18% year-on-year but an increase of 2% quarter-on-quarter, with a non-money market AUM of 67.5 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year [3]. - The investment banking segment achieved net income of 450 million yuan, down 25% year-on-year and 58% quarter-on-quarter, with a market share of 5% in IPO underwriting [3]. Investment Performance - The company's investment net income (including foreign exchange gains) was 2.34 billion yuan in Q1 2024, down 35% year-on-year but up 19% quarter-on-quarter, representing 61.1% of the main securities revenue [4]. - The annualized investment return rate for Q1 2024 was 2.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 21.9 billion, 22.4 billion, and 23.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.6%, +2.1%, and +3.8% [5]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 5.9 billion, 6.1 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4%, +3%, and +5.9% [5]. - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 1.22, 1.26, and 1.34 yuan per share [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 was 4.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 24% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.54 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year [1]. - The asset management business remains a key revenue pillar, contributing significantly to the company's income despite facing short-term pressure due to changes in public fund fee rates [1][2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in performance as the equity market and new fund issuance improve, projecting revenue growth for 2024-2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2024 revenue was 4.95 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year; net profit was 1.54 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year; ROE was 1.16%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Brokerage business generated net commission income of 1.36 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, while asset management business generated 1.61 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year [1]. - Investment business revenue was 1.14 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year, with a financial asset total of 444.4 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The asset management business accounted for 34% of the company's main revenue, while brokerage accounted for 29%, together contributing over 60% of total revenue [1]. - The investment banking segment saw a 47% year-on-year increase in net commission income, totaling 150 million yuan [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 23.76 billion yuan, 24.07 billion yuan, and 25.32 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 7.01 billion yuan, 7.35 billion yuan, and 8.11 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report sets a target price of 21.88 yuan, based on a 1.2 times price-to-book ratio for 2023 [3].