股 票 研 究 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 TikTok 在美发展或迎拐点，AI 出海应用实现高增 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 [Table_Invest] 评级： ——传媒行业周报 2024 年 44 期 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.09 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|----------|---------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 陈筱 ( 分析师 ) | 陈俊希 ( | 分析师 | | ) | | | | | 021-38675863 | | 021-38032025 | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The macroeconomic landscape has shifted with significant events such as Trump's election victory, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and decisions from China's National People's Congress, leading to a period where the fundamental pricing power of various metals has increased [2][6] - Precious metals are under pressure due to the realization of previously anticipated gains from the "Trump trade" and rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which peaked around 4.5%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November confirmed a rate cut but expressed a more cautious stance on inflation, indicating potential adjustment pressures for precious metals [2][6] - Industrial metals are expected to benefit from a supportive domestic policy environment, with a projected 10 trillion yuan debt resolution plan and a more robust fiscal policy anticipated by 2025, which may bolster domestic demand despite entering a seasonal slowdown [2][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report highlights a transition into a policy vacuum period, with the fundamental pricing power of metals gaining importance. The precious metals sector faces increased adjustment pressure, while industrial metals may see support from ongoing destocking despite seasonal demand declines [2][6] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW non-ferrous metals index rose by 6.62%, outperforming major indices such as the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index [11] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with beneficiaries including Western Mining, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and Shandong Jin International [2][6] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1. Industrial Metals - As of November 8, 2024, copper prices on the SHFE were 77,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.76%. Aluminum prices were 21,690 yuan/ton, up 4.30% [12] - The report notes a decrease in copper and aluminum inventories, indicating a stronger destocking trend [13] 3.2. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell to 615.48 yuan/gram on the SHFE, down 2.11% for the week, while COMEX gold dropped to 2,691.70 USD/ounce [14] - Silver prices also declined, with SHFE silver at 7,760 yuan/kilogram, down 2.92% [14] 4. Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks key macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. CPI at 2.40% and PCE at 2.09%, alongside China's CPI and PPI figures [16][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is maintained at "Buy" [3][5]. Core Views - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 23.882 CNY per share for the first half of 2024, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for the following years [2][3]. - Guizhou Moutai aims for a total revenue growth target of 15% for 2024, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of 68.41 CNY [3][4]. - The company is actively managing its market value through dividends and share buybacks, with a planned buyback of 3-6 billion CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 173.562 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 85.936 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 15.0% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 68.41 CNY, with subsequent years showing growth to 76.83 CNY in 2025 and 85.89 CNY in 2026 [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 1,609.97 CNY, with a target price set at 2,240.12 CNY, indicating significant upside potential [5][6]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 2,022.441 billion CNY [6]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is estimated at 33X, reflecting the company's strong operational resilience and growth potential [3][4]. - The net asset return rate is projected to increase from 34.7% in 2023 to 39.3% by 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3][5] Core Views - The company has seen a rapid growth in overseas orders, and the domestic steel industry's green and low-carbon transformation is expected to release new demand. The company is strategically positioning itself in cutting-edge technologies such as direct reduction iron and hydrogen metallurgy, which may create a differentiated competitive advantage [4][5]. Financial Summary - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.60, 0.68, and 0.76 yuan, representing growth rates of 14%, 13%, and 12% respectively. The target price is maintained at 9.57 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 16 times for 2024 [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 12.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.56%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.36% to 640 million yuan [5]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was -3.985 billion yuan, compared to -968 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [5]. - The company signed new orders worth 15.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with overseas orders increasing by 80.5% [5][15]. Order and Market Trends - The new orders for the third quarter of 2024 amounted to 5.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The growth rate for overseas orders in the same period was 215.1% [5][15]. - The company aims to steadily expand its overseas order scale, particularly in regions such as Africa [5][15]. Competitive Positioning - The company has established a low-carbon metallurgy engineering technology system, which includes high furnace decarbonization and carbon asset management, providing it with a competitive edge [5]. - The company's current dividend yield is 3.79%, and its price-to-book ratio is 1.23, which is at the 25th percentile of its historical data over the past 10 years [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 136.80 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in gross margin in Q3 2024, enhancing confidence in its autonomous control capabilities. The net profit for Q3 reached 1.06 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 56.4%, benefiting from consumer recovery and autonomous control catalysts [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was 15.609 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.14%. The revenue growth aligns with the company's performance guidance [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, reaching 23.92%, surpassing the original guidance of 20%. The average selling price (ASP) increased to 966 USD, a quarter-on-quarter rise of 15% [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial projections indicate a revenue of 56.301 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4%. The net profit is projected to be 4.46 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 7.5% compared to 2023 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been revised to 0.56 CNY, 0.72 CNY, and 0.92 CNY respectively, up from previous estimates of 0.45 CNY, 0.65 CNY, and 0.91 CNY [4][5]. - The book value per share (BPS) estimates for the same years have also been adjusted to 18.34 CNY, 19.05 CNY, and 19.97 CNY, respectively [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as the largest and most advanced professional wafer foundry in mainland China, expected to benefit significantly from the demand for chip autonomy. The capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at 7.5 billion USD, with an anticipated increase in monthly production capacity by approximately 60,000 12-inch wafers by the end of 2024 [4]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for Q4 2024, with expectations of revenue remaining stable or growing by 2% quarter-on-quarter, and gross margins maintained between 18% and 20%, exceeding market expectations [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that China Chemical's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 showed steady profit growth, with a net profit increase of 3.1% year-on-year, although it was below expectations. The company is expected to see future growth in its industrial new materials segment due to its extensive layout and technological advantages [5][6]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 134.2 billion yuan, a growth of 2.38% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.838 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.09% [6]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was -5.6 billion yuan, compared to -3.4 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [6]. - The company’s new contract signing for the first three quarters was 284.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with domestic contracts increasing by 9.82% while overseas contracts decreased by 22.72% [6][14]. Business Segments - The report highlights that the construction engineering contracting segment saw a slight decline in new contracts, with chemical engineering contracts down by 5.94%. However, the infrastructure segment experienced a growth of 27.65% [6][14]. - The industrial and new materials sales segment reported a growth of 19.09%, indicating a positive trend in high-value-added new materials [6][14]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.92, 0.99, and 1.07 yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 3%, 8%, and 8% [6]. - The target price remains at 10.73 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.66 times for 2024 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yunnan Energy Investment [2][8] - The target price is set at 16.32, unchanged from the previous forecast [2] Core Insights - The company focuses on its core electricity business while divesting its loss-making natural gas operations, which is expected to initiate a broader asset integration within the group [3] - The natural gas segment reported revenue of 850 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 67.5%, but negatively impacted the net profit attributable to the parent company by 43 million yuan [8] - The shale gas exploration and development company will become an associate company post-capital increase, improving the quality of consolidated assets [8] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,904 million yuan in 2023 to 5,001 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.9% [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 482 million yuan in 2023 to 1,361 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 24.0% [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.52 yuan in 2023 to 1.48 yuan in 2026 [9] Market Data - The stock price has ranged between 8.49 and 13.27 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 12.98 yuan [4] - The total market capitalization is approximately 11,951 million yuan [4] Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the strategic focus on renewable energy, with significant potential for asset injection from the parent company, Yunnan Energy Investment Group [8] - The company has signed a framework agreement with its controlling shareholder to prioritize the acquisition of renewable energy projects that meet listing conditions [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved its best operating performance in the first three quarters, continuing its strategy of "increasing reserves and production, stabilizing oil and increasing gas" while rapidly developing its new energy business and steadily advancing in overseas markets [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.66%. The Q3 net profit was 43.911 billion yuan, down 5.31% year-on-year but up 2.29% quarter-on-quarter. The performance met market expectations, marking the best historical performance for the same period [3] - The operating profits by segment for the first three quarters were as follows: oil and gas 52.6 billion yuan (+11.5% YoY), refining -1.28 billion yuan (-86.1% YoY), chemicals 0.25 billion yuan (-13% YoY), sales 2.8 billion yuan (-55.8% YoY), and natural gas sales 8.46 billion yuan (+58% YoY) [3] Production and Development - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 1.342 billion barrels, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, with marketable natural gas production at 3.80 trillion cubic feet, up 4.0% year-on-year. Domestic oil and gas equivalent production was 1.197 billion barrels, a 2.3% increase year-on-year [3] - The company strengthened cost control, maintaining an operational cost of 11.49 USD per barrel, thus preserving its cost advantage [3] Overseas Market Expansion - The company’s overseas business signed new contracts worth 16% more than the previous year, with external market share increasing by 37%. Contracts exceeding 100 million USD were signed in 11 countries, with new contracts in external markets accounting for 79% of the total [3] - Notable contracts include the signing of oil product sharing contracts in Suriname and a service contract in Kuwait valued at 6.2 billion yuan, marking the highest single contract value for Chinese oil drilling services abroad [3] Valuation and Price Target - The report maintains the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 0.95, 1.01, and 1.03 yuan respectively. The target price is set at 10.54 yuan based on an EV/EBITDA valuation, with the average EV/EBITDA of comparable companies at 5.57 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utilities sector, specifically focusing on the power industry [2][4] Core Views - The report argues that "reducing electricity prices" is no longer the core policy focus in the new cycle of building a new power system, with limited downside risks for long-term contract electricity prices in 2025 [2][4] - The government's priority has shifted to "ensuring power supply security" and "low-carbon transformation," with electricity price stability expected to drive a revaluation of power assets [4][9] - The report highlights that the historical trend of electricity price increases has outpaced overall industrial product prices, with the electricity industry PPI index rising by 558% from 1979 to 2023, compared to a 197% increase in the overall industrial PPI index [8][14] Industry Analysis Historical Electricity Price Trends - The report divides China's electricity price development into five stages, emphasizing the balance between "supply security" and "low prices" [15][16] - **1985 and before**: Highly planned pricing era with limited supply growth [16] - **1986-1997**: Debt repayment pricing era, encouraging investment with significant price increases [17][18] - **1998-2004**: Operational period pricing era, aiming to control price increases while maintaining investment [19][22] - **2005-2021**: Benchmark pricing and market reform era, with electricity price increases lagging behind industrial prices [24][25] - **2022 and beyond**: New power system era, with electricity prices rising faster than industrial prices [28][29] New Power System Challenges - The report identifies challenges in the new power system, including peak load demand, increasing renewable energy integration, and high energy prices [30][31] - The government's focus has shifted to ensuring power supply security and low-carbon transformation, with less emphasis on reducing electricity prices [9][33] Regional Power Supply and Demand - The report provides a detailed analysis of regional power supply and demand from 2016 to 2024, highlighting tight supply in certain regions during peak periods [32][33] - In 2024, the national power supply and demand are expected to remain tight, with regional differences in long-term contract electricity prices [54][58] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on power companies in regions with tight supply-demand conditions, such as the Yangtze River Delta, and vertically integrated coal-power companies [4][63] - Specific recommendations include: - **Hydropower**: Yangtze Power, Sichuan Energy [4][63] - **Thermal Power**: Guodian Power, Shenergy, Inner Mongolia Huadian [4][63] - **Nuclear Power**: CGN Power (H), China National Nuclear Power [4][63] Market and Policy Dynamics - The report notes that local governments prioritize reducing industrial electricity costs rather than lowering coal-power prices, with limited impact on long-term contract prices [40][41] - The share of high-energy-consuming industries in electricity consumption is declining, reducing the sensitivity of industrial users to electricity costs [44][46] - The report predicts that the downward pressure on coal-power long-term contract prices in 2025 will be limited, with regional variations [53][54]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for leading companies in the white goods sector, highlighting their growth potential and sustainability due to strong execution capabilities in various regions [1]. Core Insights - The white goods category is expected to benefit the most from market dynamics, with significant sales growth observed in cleaning appliances, air conditioners, and kitchen appliances post-subsidy [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential of lower-tier markets, predicting a surge in demand for appliance upgrades as older units are replaced [2]. - Leading brands are gaining market share significantly, with notable increases in online market shares for major players like Midea and Haier across various product categories [3]. Summary by Sections Product Categories - The report indicates that the sales growth elasticity varies by product category, with white goods showing the most pronounced benefits. The sales growth rates for cleaning appliances, air conditioners, and kitchen appliances post-subsidy are 186%, 62%, and 50% respectively [1]. - The demand elasticity is linked to the existing base of appliances and the potential for upgrades, with traditional large appliances having a larger replacement base compared to emerging categories [1]. Regional Insights - The report highlights the potential of lower-tier markets, predicting that by mid-November 2024, 70% of the national subsidy fund for appliance upgrades will be utilized. Areas with previously low subsidy usage are expected to accelerate their spending in Q4 [2]. Brand Dynamics - Leading brands are expected to benefit significantly from the subsidy rollout, with Midea and Haier showing substantial increases in market share across key categories. The report notes a 2.9%, 5.9%, and 5.0% increase in online market shares for Midea's air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines respectively [3]. - The report also points out that high-end brands are experiencing rapid growth, with Midea and Haier's premium brands leading in the refrigerator and washing machine segments [3].