国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————价格加速下行，市场持续承压 袁方1束加沛2 张端怡（联系人）3 2024 年 09 月 10 日 内容提要 8 月通胀数据显示总需求不足的局面还在蔓延和深化，价格的加速下行带来 名义增长的走低，进而对企业盈利产生负面影响。 在内需收缩、盈利下滑的背景下，部分红利股票的"类债"属性受到质疑， 这是红利指数调整的原因。如果没有强有力的稳增长政策出台，低内需关联度的 公司以及利率债的配置价值仍存。 美国劳动力市场虽小幅修复，但不改降温趋势，导致市场对美国陷入衰退的 担忧再起。随着美国大选临近，宏观不确定性增强，市场风险偏好也因此明显回 落。这些因素或许将共同导致美股市场波动加剧，上行动能不足。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 1宏观分析师，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，shujp@essence.com.cn，S1450523010002 3联系人，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn 证券研究报告/国投证券宏观定期报告 第 1 页，共 11 页 2024 年 9 月 国投证券宏观 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a main business revenue of 436 million yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, while platform technology service revenue surged by 83% to 154 million yuan, accounting for 35% of total revenue [1] - Strategic cooperation with Taihu New City Group is expected to accelerate the company's transformation, despite a 22% decline in digital financial solutions revenue to 275 million yuan due to changes in ownership structure [1] - The company is optimistic about leveraging fintech to enhance its service capabilities for the real economy, which is anticipated to drive continued business growth [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 166 million yuan, down 12% year-on-year, with earnings per share of 0.16 yuan, a decrease of 11% [1] - The total processed supply chain asset scale reached approximately 216 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22% [1] Strategic Developments - The partnership with Taihu New City Group led to a reduction in the company's stake in Wuxi Guojin from 80% to 49%, resulting in a short-term decline in operating revenue, total assets, and net assets [1] - The strategic cooperation aims to enhance platform service revenue and optimize the company's business structure, improving return on equity [1] Future Outlook - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.30 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.43 yuan respectively, with a target price of 7.32 HKD based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.6x for 2024 [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Leading the Market-A" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [3] Core Views - The global VC&PE investment and financing in innovative drugs showed a temporary decline in August 2024, but the overall trend has been improving since the beginning of 2024 [1][9] - The US market has shown significant improvement in VC&PE investment and financing for innovative drugs, particularly in 2024Q2 [2][12] Annual Perspective - In 2024H1, global VC&PE investment and financing in innovative drugs improved, with the US showing a notable recovery: global investment decreased by 2.35% YoY, while US investment increased by 15.51% YoY, marking a 27.73 and 54.88 percentage point improvement respectively compared to the same period last year [2][10] Quarterly Perspective - In 2024Q2, the US market saw a significant improvement in VC&PE investment and financing for innovative drugs: global investment decreased by 6.55% YoY, US investment increased by 22.45% YoY, and domestic investment decreased by 45.11% YoY [3][12] Monthly Perspective - In August 2024, global VC&PE investment and financing in innovative drugs experienced a temporary decline: global investment decreased by 33.01% YoY, US investment decreased by 31.18% YoY, and domestic investment decreased by 64.18% YoY [3][14] Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical industry underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with relative returns of -3.3% over 1 month, -1.2% over 3 months, and -4.4% over 12 months [4]

2024 年 09 月 09 日 建筑 Q2 建筑板块营收/业绩均有所承压，Q3 专项债发行提速，看好建筑央企基本面 改善 本周投资建议： 近期，建筑行业半年报已披露完毕，2024H1 建筑板块（SW）实现营收 4.23 万亿元（yoy-3.30%），实现归母净利润 979.64 亿元（yoy10.19%），实现扣非归母净利润 895.56 亿元（yoy-11.61%）。Q2 建 筑板块（SW）实现营收 2.16 万亿元（yoy-7.23%），实现归母净利润 475 亿元（yoy-17.12%）。Q2 建筑板块营收/业绩均有所承压，或主 要系建筑板块受当地财政压力或地产下行影响，项目推进缓慢所致。 2024H1 八大建筑央企合计实现营收 3.43 万亿元（yoy-2.26%），实 现归母净利润 831.38 亿元（yoy-7.55%）。其中，中国建筑/中国电 建 / 中国能建营收逆势实现正向增长，分别同比增长 2.81%/1.29%/1.11%；中国建筑/中国能建归母净利润增速也表现亮 眼，分别为 1.65%和 4.68%。从海外营收来看，2024H1 八大建筑央企 合计实现海外营收 2944.57 亿元（y ...

行业周报 2024 年 09 月 09 日 农林牧渔 补栏谨慎能繁月增幅减少，猪价持续性 或超预期 生猪养殖：短期猪价或随供需博弈震荡，能繁增幅减少猪价持 续性或超预期 价格端：本周生猪均价 19.79 元/kg，周环比+0.35%，两周环比-1.94%； 仔猪价格 649 元/头，周环比-5.26%，两周环比-2.88%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 27.27 元/kg，周环比-0.85%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 13.93 万头，周环比变动+4.30%。 周观点：短期猪价或随供需博弈震荡，能繁增幅减少猪价持续性或超 预期。涌益咨询点评显示，偏集团样本仍维持稳定微增趋势，散户呈 现增幅减小趋势，其中华南散户保持稳定，西南部分地区散户有猪病 少量发生增加淘汰，北方散户观望为主。区别于往年行情好就积极补 栏，今年的上涨行情下并没有带动太多的补栏母猪，主要原因是这几 年行情的大起大落、疫病的不确定性、集团化的产能调节及变化，散 户更多处于观望心态。短期价格趋势来看，9 月全国多地出栏量均有 不同程度增量，市场二育存栏压力仍较强，消费端虽天气转凉有增量， 但并未到季节性暴增阶段，因此供需间的博 ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 行业周报 2024 年 09 月 09 日 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 补栏谨慎能繁月增幅减少，猪价持续性 或超预期 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 生猪养殖：短期猪价或随供需博弈震荡，能繁增幅减少猪价持 续性或超预期 价格端：本周生猪均价 19.79 元/kg，周环比+0.35%，两周环比-1.94%； 仔猪价格 649 元/头，周环比-5.26%，两周环比-2.88%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 27.27 元/kg，周环比-0.85%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 13.93 万头，周环比变动+4.30%。 周观点：短期猪价或随供需博弈震荡，能繁增幅减少猪价持续性或超 预期。涌益咨询点评显示，偏集团样本仍维持稳定微增趋势，散户呈 现增幅减小趋势，其中华南散户保持稳定，西南部分地区散户有猪病 少量发生增加淘汰，北方散户观望为主。区别于往年行情好就积极补 栏，今年的上涨行情下并没有带动太多的补栏母猪，主要原因是这几 年行情的大起大落、疫病的不确定性、集团化的产能调节及变化，散 户更多处于观望心态。短期价格趋势来看，9 月全国多地出栏量均有 ...

2024 年 09 月 09 日 计算机 计算机行业 2024 年中报总结 成长性分析：行业增速整体承压，拐点仍需等待 盈利能力和营运能力分析：毛利率有所降低，周转率维持稳定 细分板块：把握由产业和政策变革带来的主题性机会 从细分板块的增长来看，24H1 收入增长最快的前五个子版块分别为： 汽车智能网联（中位数 YoY+11.08%）、信创产业（YoY+10.53%）、 云 SaaS（YoY+9.27%）、工业软件（YoY+8.76%）、基础工具链 （ YoY+5.59% ） ； 增 速 后 五 的 板 块 为 ： 人 工 智 能 算 法 和 应 用 （YoY-15.65%）、医疗信息化（YoY-12.30%）、空天信息化（YoY-7.76%）、 政务信息化（YoY-6.91%）、银行 IT（YoY-6.86%）。 从投资机会来看，由于基本面修复仍需等待，因此下半年主要围绕有 一定业绩支撑，同时具备产业或政策变革带来的主题性机会。产业变 革方面关注：AI 算力产业链（服务器、液冷、电源、高密度 IDC 等）、 华为鸿蒙产业链（原生鸿蒙有望今年发布）；政策变革方面关注：信 创自主可控产业链（操作系统/数据库/芯 ...

公司深度分析 2024 年 09 月 09 日 绿竹生物-B(02480.HK) 证券研究报告 生物技术(HS) 投资评级 买入-A 首次评级 6 个月目标价 32.77 港元 股价 (2024-09-05) 21.50 港元 交易数据 总市值(百万港元) 4,352.65 流通市值(百万港元) 4,352.65 总股本(百万股) 202.45 流通股本(百万股) 202.45 12 个月价格区间 17.22/39.0 港元 LZ901 三期进行时，剑指百亿蓝海市场 绿竹生物：深耕行业二十余年，以创新驱动发展。绿竹生物成立于 2001 年 11 月，是一家致力于开发创新型人用疫苗和治疗性生物制剂 的生物技术公司。公司创始人孔健先生曾供职于卫生部北京生物制品 研究所，拥有 30 多年的生物制药行业经验，作为首席科学家带领公 司研究团队实现多项突破，自成立以来成功研发了 6 款疫苗产品，其 中液体 AC 流脑结合疫苗、AC-Hib 三联疫苗为全球首款，Hib 结合疫 苗（磷酸铝佐剂）、ACYW135 流脑多糖疫苗为中国首款，6 款疫苗均已 转让给智飞生物，其中 5 款疫苗已实现商业化。目前，公司共布局了 7 款在 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to improve in September, with a slight increase in the central-local fiscal expenditure growth rate from -5.92% to -5.86%, suggesting stabilization [1][7][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-dividend core assets, particularly in the public service sector, such as electricity, highways, and telecommunications, as key investment opportunities [1][7][8] - The report highlights the ongoing "high-cut low" trading strategy, with a focus on electronic and Hong Kong internet stocks on the right side, and the ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 Index on the left side [1][7][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent fluctuations in the A-share market are primarily influenced by external factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the upcoming U.S. elections affecting Sino-U.S. relations [1][7][8] - The report identifies the banking sector as a significant player in the A-share market, with the four major banks showing notable price fluctuations, driven by passive investment trends and the inflow of funds into the CSI 300 ETF [1][7][14] - The report suggests that the current high-cut low market environment may continue, with a focus on sectors such as technology growth and small-cap stocks, particularly in the context of policy-driven trading strategies [1][7][18]

Group 1 - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave, particularly Nvidia, and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, emphasizing that both are experiencing a turning point in their respective cycles [2][10][11] - The analysis indicates that while Nvidia's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is around 60, significantly lower than Cisco's peak of over 200, Nvidia's earnings guidance is stronger, suggesting a less inflated valuation compared to Cisco during the dot-com era [2][11] - The report highlights that the essence of the comparison lies in the industry competition landscape, noting that Cisco faced strong competitors like Juniper and Huawei, which contributed to its decline post-bubble, while Nvidia's competitive position remains to be evaluated [2][11] Group 2 - The report outlines four stages of the dot-com bubble: nurturing, explosive growth, bubble formation, and bubble burst, with each stage characterized by specific market behaviors and economic conditions [12][18] - It emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment during the dot-com bubble, particularly the signs of economic recession in 1999, played a crucial role in the subsequent market crash, suggesting that current economic indicators should be closely monitored [10][11] - The report posits that the current AI technology wave is likely at a turning point, with the potential to enter a collaborative phase, which could lead to significant advancements and economic integration, similar to the post-bubble recovery seen in the early 2000s [2][10][11] Group 3 - The report suggests that the investment strategy should focus on the industry competition dynamics as the primary entry point for evaluating Nvidia's investment value, rather than solely on short-term application trends [2][11] - It proposes a decision-making framework that considers whether AI chips have barriers to entry and the competitive landscape over the next 2-3 years, which will significantly impact Nvidia's valuation [2][11] - The report concludes that the macroeconomic constraints will influence Nvidia's pricing, with scenarios of either a hard or soft landing for the U.S. economy affecting the demand for AI chips [2][11]