2026 年 02 月 01 日 北交所定期报告 本周北证指数震荡回调，我国将布局 更多"太空+"产业 本周市场回顾： 本周上证指数上涨 0.09%，北证 A 股指数下跌 3.54%，跑输上证综指 3.63pct，北证 50 指数下跌 4.29%,跑输上证综指 4.38pct，创业板指 数下跌 2.41%，科创板指数下跌 3.18%； 流动性方面，本周北证 A 股总成交额为 1436.6 亿元，北证 50 总成交 额 492.3 亿元，占北证 A 股总成交额的 34.3%，环比+1.87pct。北证 A 股日均成交额 287.31 亿元，环比+8.8%，区间日均换手率为 4.65%， 较上一区间提升 0.38pct； 估值方面，截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，北证 A 股市盈率中位数为 45.52X； 同期科创板、创业板 PE 中位数分别为 36.28X、37.23X。 个股表现&新股上市情况： 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，北交所上市公司总数为 292 家，涨幅靠前的 分别为:科力股份、秋乐种业、连城数控、戈碧迦、美邦科技、蘅东 光、康农种业、铜冠矿建、志高机械、欧福蛋业；跌幅靠前的分别为: ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Insights - The price increase of dyes has been realized, and attention should be paid to changes in the SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry chain [1][12] - The supply of key intermediate H acid is under pressure due to environmental and safety production constraints, leading to a significant cost increase for active dyes [2][3] - The industry is experiencing a dual transformation in cost and market structure, with a focus on the concentration of market share among leading companies due to stricter environmental regulations [10][9] Summary by Sections Key Intermediate Supply and Price Dynamics - H acid, essential for producing active dyes, faces supply constraints due to environmental pressures and production incidents, leading to a projected price increase that could raise active dye production costs significantly [2][3] - The effective capacity of H acid is currently below 60,000 tons, with a potential reduction of over 25% due to maintenance shutdowns, reinforcing cost support expectations for active dyes [2] Market Structure and Environmental Regulations - The dye industry is undergoing a consolidation phase, with many non-compliant small manufacturers exiting the market, leading to a more oligopolistic structure [3][10] - The active dye market's CR4 (concentration ratio) is 64.91%, while the dispersed dye market's CR4 is 70.69%, indicating a significant level of market concentration [10] Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Runtao Co., Zhejiang Longsheng, Jinji Co., Jihua Group, Yabang Co., Annuoqi, Fulei Ant, Wanfeng Co., and Haixiang Pharmaceutical, which are positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [11] - The SAF sector is also highlighted for potential growth, with expected increases in demand driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics [12][14]

2026 年 02 月 01 日 有色金属 全球政策预期突变，关注稀土等国内主 导品种 市场一夜之间，政策预期突然转变，金银领跌商品市场，并引发美股 一系列连锁反应，核心因特朗普提名凯文沃什担任美联储主席。沃什 倡导"缩表 + 降息"的政策组合，偏鹰派的策略给市场浇一盆冷水， 金银等品种出现杠杆杀多现象。短期沃什的提名受阻风险高，5 月任 期交接前均有变数。总之，在政策未完全明朗前，短期金属可能高波 震荡，需注意控制风险。当前可关注受宏观影响较小的板块（稀土、 钨、钽），以及春节后的工业金属（铜铝等）。长期金属逻辑未变， 全球新产业链发展持续拉动金属需求，而供给端的约束持续存在，美 元信用长期走弱是趋势。中长期持续看好稀土铜铝钨金银锡锂钽铌 锑铀等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4879.6、84.8 美元/盎司,环比分别 -1.94%、-16.0%。特朗普总统宣布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储 主席，其前期任职期间经常支持更高利率引发市场对美联储后续货币 政策的担忧，金银价格调整幅度较大。央行和 etf 资金积极增持黄金 驱动延续，美元信用担忧仍存，短期价格回调但持续看好金价中长期 上 ...

2026 年 01 月 30 日 基础化工 关键中间体 H 酸供应紧张，活性染料潜 在涨价弹性或释放——染料更新② 事件： 据百川盈孚，1 月 29 日，大柴旦乐青科技有限公司 1 万吨 H 酸装置 停车检修、大柴旦和信科技有限公司 H 酸暂不报价，年产 0.5 万吨装 置停车检修。同日 H 酸市场均价+0.63%（+250 元/吨）至 4.03 万元/ 吨）活性染料市场均价+4.55%（+1000 元/吨）至 2.30 万元/吨。 998948056 活性染料生产必需 H 酸，环保及安全生产压力大 活性染料用于棉、麻、羊毛、蚕丝等织物染色，据 Industry Research 咨询，全球 65%的棉质服装、家纺制品依赖活性染料。H 酸则是生产 活性、酸性和直接染料的关键中间体原料之一，覆盖品类广泛，如活 性艳红 K2BP、活性紫 K-3R、活性溶蓝 K-R、酸性品红 6B、酸性黑 10B、 直接黑等 90 余种。但由于 H 酸生产过程中废水难以处理（废水 COD 高达 30000mg/L）且涉及高危磺化、硝化反应，长期以来行业环保及 安全生产压力较大，较多中小型落后产能陆续淘汰。2025 年以来，部 分企 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International is maintained as "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 16.80 [6][4]. Core Insights - Smoore International has demonstrated strong confidence in its long-term value through significant share buybacks, totaling nearly HKD 200 million over two days [2]. - The company reported record revenue of approximately RMB 4.197 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.2%, driven by the successful launch of new heated not-burn (HNB) products in major global markets [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from stricter global regulations on non-compliant products, enhancing its status as a compliant leader in the industry [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Smoore International from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 141.08 billion, RMB 167.17 billion, and RMB 198.67 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.57%, 18.50%, and 18.84% respectively [4]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 10.43 billion, RMB 19.31 billion, and RMB 27.26 billion, with growth rates of -19.93%, 85.12%, and 41.14% respectively [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 63.16x, 34.12x, and 24.17x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 20.54 CNY, while the current stock price is 16.37 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for waste paper products is boosted by seasonal factors, while cultural paper faces supply and demand pressure. The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability for cultural paper after the spring semester and publishing tender season begins [1]. - The company is expanding its pulp and paper production capacity, with a focus on its three major bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, which are expected to drive sustainable growth in the long term [3][11]. - The report projects the company's revenue to grow from 425.98 billion CNY in 2025 to 480.71 billion CNY in 2027, with net profit expected to increase from 34.98 billion CNY to 43.82 billion CNY during the same period [11]. Summary by Sections Paper Products - Cultural paper prices have decreased, with double glue paper and copper plate paper averaging 5003 CNY and 4703 CNY per ton respectively in Q4 2025, down 4.01% and 8.51% quarter-on-quarter. However, price increases for white card paper and copper card paper are anticipated [1]. - Waste paper products, including boxboard and corrugated paper, saw price increases of 16.49% and 19.28% respectively in Q4 2025, driven by traditional seasonal demand [1]. Pulp Prices - Pulp prices remained stable in Q4 2025, with needle pulp averaging 703 USD per ton (down 2.41%) and broadleaf pulp at 630 USD per ton (unchanged). The company’s overseas land resources in Laos provide a unique advantage in the industry [2]. Strategic Development - The company plans to invest in its Shandong base to produce 600,000 tons of bleached chemical pulp and 700,000 tons of high-end packaging paper. The Guangxi base is also set to begin trial production for various projects in 2025 [3]. - The strategic development goals of the company are being realized through the establishment of its three major bases, which will enter a new phase of coordinated development [3].

2026 年 1 月 27 日 弘元绿能(603185.SH) 超薄硅片破茧再造技术基石，光储协 同并进点亮未来新篇 事件：2026 年 1 月 23 日，公司位于内蒙古包头的硅片智造基地成功 实现 40μm 超薄硅片首批次下线，实现了整片与半片切割工艺，覆盖全 尺寸规格，可适配柔性电池的超薄硅片需求。其高精度切割环节采用公 司自主研发的切片设备，这一关键突破构筑了公司在硅片薄片化领域的 坚实技术壁垒与先发优势，进一步确立了公司在产业前沿的领先身位。 超薄硅片量产首发，厚积薄发定义技术新标杆 公司作为光伏切割设备的供应龙头，持续对行业技术攻关的深度聚焦， 在磨面滚圆切片设备领域不断深耕，据公司公众号报道其市占率曾一度 超过 70%，并率先实现碳化硅切割设备的国产替代，市占率亦实现 60%突 破。其深厚的装备研发积淀与整机自主设计能力，为超薄硅片的研发构 筑了坚实的技术底座，有力支撑了本次 40μm 超薄硅片的成功下线，创 下了行业新纪录。公司的超薄硅片产品兼具优异的柔性与极轻的质量， 能在圆弧面、曲面等非平面结构上实现高度贴合，并且显著降低系统重 量，精准匹配了组件轻量化与柔性化的前沿应用场景。其出色性能为全 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Insights - The importance of aerospace and satellite technology is increasingly recognized, with the acceleration of space infrastructure construction benefiting the related industry chain in the long term [2][12] - The report highlights significant recent developments in the commercial aerospace and satellite industry, including the launch of new satellite networks and rockets, which are expected to enhance the application potential of satellite infrastructure [1][11] - The report suggests focusing on incremental directions in space infrastructure, such as space computing power, 3D printing, terminal direct connection, and inter-satellite connectivity, as well as value-enhancing segments in low Earth orbit satellites [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report indicates that the industry has shown a relative return of 14.7% over the past month, 9.2% over three months, and 23.8% over twelve months, with absolute returns of 16.5%, 11.2%, and 47.4% respectively [6][13] Recent Developments - The report details various recent events, including the launch of the "TeraWave" satellite communication network by Blue Origin, which will consist of 5,408 low Earth orbit satellites, and the successful launch of multiple satellites by different companies [1][11] - It also mentions the approval of policies in Beijing to support the development of commercial satellite remote sensing data resources from 2026 to 2030, indicating a favorable regulatory environment for the industry [1][11] Investment Focus - The report recommends paying attention to companies involved in satellite and space asset management, safety, and applications, as well as those engaged in testing and simulation services [2][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating, indicating a leading position in the market [5] Core Insights - The coal mining industry is experiencing a dual transformation towards green and intelligent technologies, with significant growth potential for mining trucks in the new energy era [1] - The demand for unmanned mining trucks is expected to surge due to advancements in smart mining construction and supportive policies, with projections indicating a fleet exceeding 10,000 units by 2026-2027 [1][22] - The transition to new energy mining trucks is becoming mainstream, driven by mature technologies in pure electric and hybrid models, alongside favorable policies and cost advantages [2][37] Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - The continuous release of open-pit coal mine capacity is creating substantial growth opportunities for mining trucks, with open-pit coal mines accounting for approximately 25% of China's total coal production in 2023 [16] - The number of unmanned mining trucks is projected to increase from 88 units in 2020 to over 4,000 by 2025, with a forecast of surpassing 10,000 units by 2026-2027 [1][22] - The industry is accelerating its green transformation, with new energy mining trucks expected to see sales exceed 1,500 units in 2023 and forecasted to surpass 2,000 units by 2025 [2][37] 2. Market Information Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, with the average price of thermal coal reported at 685 RMB/ton as of January 21, 2026, remaining stable compared to January 7, 2026 [10] - Coking coal prices have seen an increase, with the main coking coal price at 1,770 RMB/ton as of January 20, 2026, up by 150 RMB/ton from January 6, 2026 [10] 3. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies from the National Energy Administration and other departments are promoting the construction of zero-carbon factories and the use of new energy vehicles in mining operations [9] - The report highlights the importance of smart mining and unmanned truck applications, supported by various national policies aimed at enhancing safety and efficiency in mining operations [35] 4. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in the coal sector, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from stable profits and cyclical recovery [11] - It also recommends monitoring companies involved in the production of new energy mining trucks, including XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry, and others, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market [2][43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [7] Core Insights - The large-scale deployment of low Earth orbit satellites is imminent, with a total of 203,000 new satellite applications submitted by Chinese institutions by December 2025, indicating accelerated demand for satellite construction and launch [1] - SpaceX plans to deploy a 100GW/year space data center within the next 4 to 5 years, utilizing thousands of satellites to create a space computing network, aiming for a 1000P level computing power deployment by 2027 [1] - Solar wings are identified as the core energy supply solution for space, with flexible solar wings offering significant advantages in terms of size reduction and efficiency [2] - The future direction of space photovoltaics is expected to focus on perovskite and heterojunction tandem cells, which promise high efficiency, lightweight, and low cost [3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The commercial space industry is accelerating, with a focus on 3D printing service providers, key structural components, and the space photovoltaic industry chain [6] - The global gas turbine capacity is tightening, with domestic supply chains seizing the AIDC prosperity dividend [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the photovoltaic equipment industry chain, including companies such as Maiwei Co., Aotewi, High Measurement Co., Jiejia Weichuang, Jing Sheng Machinery, Shuangliang Energy, and Dier Laser for equipment, and Jun Da Co. and Dongfang Risen for batteries and components [4]