Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index having risen approximately 15% in the second half of the year, despite weak macroeconomic fundamentals [1][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of transitioning from a liquidity-driven market to a fundamentals-driven market for sustained growth above the 4000-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index [1][4] - Historical analysis shows that significant year-end rallies typically require low valuations and improved liquidity conditions, with only three instances in the past decade where no rally occurred during this period [2][4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the market is currently in a "high-cut low" phase, where large-cap stocks have outperformed small-cap stocks, and this trend is expected to continue until a new main theme emerges [3][4] - It is noted that the performance of cyclical value stocks is expected to be strong leading into the year-end, particularly in resource and financial sectors, with a historical win rate of 70% for value stocks during this period [3][4] - The report suggests that the technology sector may see a rebound in January, as historical data indicates that growth stocks tend to perform better after the Lunar New Year [3][4] Group 3 - The report discusses the structural rotation in the market, indicating that the technology sector has been focusing on high-certainty trends, particularly in AI hardware, while software applications have lagged [3][4] - It is mentioned that the current high levels of technology stock valuations may lead to increased sensitivity to negative news, suggesting a cautious approach to investing in this sector [3][4] - The report also notes that the performance of the A-share technology sector is closely tied to global trends in AI and the performance of U.S. tech stocks, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of external signals [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [7] Core Insights - DeepSeek has launched the V3.2 model, enhancing its reasoning capabilities to a globally leading level, suitable for everyday use in Q&A and general agent tasks [12][27] - The V3.2 model achieved performance comparable to GPT-5 in benchmark tests, slightly below Gemini-3.0-Pro, while significantly reducing output length and computational costs [12][27] - The introduction of the DSA (DeepSeek Sparse Attention) mechanism reduces context computation costs, changing complexity from O(L²) to O(Lk), where k is a fixed value of 2048 [13][14] - The report highlights the launch of the Doubao mobile assistant, which integrates AI capabilities into mobile operating systems, allowing users to perform complex tasks with voice commands [15] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer sector underperformed relative to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 1-month relative return of -5.4% and a 3-month return of -4.5% [5][16] - The computer sector index ranked 25th among 30 industry indices, indicating weaker performance [19] Important Industry News - Google’s TPUv7 has begun to challenge NVIDIA's dominance in AI chips, marking a significant shift in the competitive landscape [25] - The 2025 World Computing Conference showcased advancements in computing systems, emphasizing the importance of system capabilities over individual card performance [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer market is expected to remain tight globally, with a focus on the growth potential of companies seeking overseas potassium resources [2] - The organic silicon industry is entering a new price increase cycle, supported by collaborative production cuts among manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights of the Week - The potassium fertilizer contract price for 2026 has been set at $348 per ton, indicating a slight increase from the previous year, reflecting a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The organic silicon intermediate price has risen to 13,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 2,600 yuan per ton since the implementation of the joint price support plan [3] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.1% in the past week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [22] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 159 stocks rose while 262 fell, with notable gainers including Longgao Co. (+23.3%) and Shuangxing New Materials (+21.8%) [29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - Jiangnan Chemical plans to acquire 100% of Xi'an Qinghua Civil Explosive Materials Co. for 645 million yuan [32]

2025 年 12 月 07 日 有色金属 铜铝锡持续上涨，重视贵金属板块 本周有色金属指数周涨幅 5.12%，领跑行业板块。其中，铜铝锡等细 分板块涨幅较高。宏观方面，下周美联储利率决议，市场预期降息 25bp 概率超 80%，特朗普称明年初将宣布美联储主席人选，点名凯 文·哈塞特作为潜在候选人，市场看好 26 年降息周期下的有色普涨 行情。铜因供应紧张叠加伦敦、中国库存偏低，铜价开始拉涨，lme 铜价涨超 11500 美元/吨；锡因供应问题持续扰动，价格涨超 31.5 万 元/吨；铝因低库存叠加国内降息预期，表现强势。下周美联储议息 会议，建议重视贵金属板块的机会，持续看好金银铜铝锡稀土锑锂钴 钽铀等金属，我们预计价格仍有上涨空间。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4197.6、58.3 美元/盎司,环比分别 -0.49%、+3.31%。美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万人，低于市场 预期，就业市场趋于疲软。特朗普点名凯文·哈塞特作为潜在候选人， 哈塞特表示现在是美联储"谨慎降息"的好时机，市场对 12 月会议 将降息的预期延续。考虑到前期美国政府停摆对就业的负面影响，预 计美 ...

2025 年 12 月 7 日 生物医药Ⅱ 新药周观点：商保创新药目录发布， 支付端新增量值得期待 1）已获 MNC 认证未来海外放量确定性高的品种：三生制药、联邦制 药、科伦博泰等； 2）存在海外数据催化的品种：贝达药业、和黄医药、映恩生物等； 3）下一个可能海外授权 MNC 的重磅品种：复宏汉霖、石药集团、益 方生物等； 4）新的创新药技术突破领域：小核酸、体内 CAR-T、减脂增肌、自 免 CAR-T/双抗、基因疗法等。 本周新药行业重点分析： 2025 年 12 月 7 日，国家医保局发布了《商业健康保险创新药品目录 （2025 年）》（以下简称商保创新药目录），提出多项利于商保创新 药目录内药品放量的措施。本次发布的商保创新药目录共纳入 19 款 既往价格昂贵的创新药，包括部分受市场关注度高的 5 款 CAR-T 药 物以及 2 款针对阿尔茨海默病的新药，我们认为商业健康保险创新 药品目录出台后有望改善高价值创新药支付难的问题，有望在基本 医保支付之外多一个支付路径，打破既往销售天花板。 本周新药行情回顾： 2025 年 12 月 1 日-2025 年 12 月 7 日，新药板块涨幅前 5：北海康成 ...

2025 年 12 月 07 日 向上趋势或有改善迹象 本期要点：向上趋势或有改善迹象 上周我们认为市场在 12 月收官阶段将保持震荡偏积极格局，事后看， 主流宽基指数多数上涨，基本符合此前预期。 从周期分析模型角度看，虽然前期市场一度调整并放量跌破短期上升 通道，但自 2024 年初以来的月线级别上行趋势可能尚未结束。结合 缠论形态对比与温度计指标的相似性，我们此前曾将今年 12 月走势 与 2017 年 12 月进行类比，并判断当前走势或略强于当时。 从趋势强度因子看，自 11 月底以来的超跌反弹已使得均线多头排列 状态显著改善，向上趋势强度明显修复，进一步支持我们对当前市场 震荡偏积极的判断。 从行业分歧度指标看，该指标已降至近几年较低水平。历史经验显示， 在牛市或上行格局中，行业分歧度处于低位往往对应局部低点，甚至 可能是重要底部，这也是我们对 12 月走势保持积极态度的关键依据。 综合来看，我们认为市场后续有望继续震荡上行。板块结构方面，近 期四轮驱动模型信号相对分散，大盘价值、小盘成长、科技与高股息 等方向均有表现，其中周四、周五信号中非银金融、中证新材料及军 工板块值得重点关注。 风险提示：根据 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：美国「全力押注实体智能」，机器 人板块迎来政策级加速时刻 昨日，港股三大指数集体上涨，恒生指数涨 0.68%，国企指数涨 0.86%，恒生 科技指数涨 1.45%。大市成交金额 1,793.06 亿元，主板总卖空金额 313.57 亿 元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 19.84%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易净 流入 14.80 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是盈富基 金 2800.HK、小米集团 1810.HK、小鹏汽车 9868.HK；净卖出最多的是腾讯 700.HK、 中芯国际 981.HK、三花智控 2050.HK。 北向资金方面，12 月 4 日北向资金共成交 1742.04 亿元，占两市总成交额的 11.25%。工业富联 601138.SH、紫金矿业 601899.SH、兆易创新 603986.SH 位 列沪股通成交前三，成交额分别为 17.47 亿、14.53 亿、12.92 亿；中际旭创 300308.SZ、宁德时代 300750.SZ、新易盛 300502.SZ 位 ...

2025 年 12 月 04 日 统联精密(688210.SH) 推进轻质材料业务布局，新增产能规模 效益有望逐步释放 事件：发布可转债预案，资金拟投向轻质材料项目 2025 年 11 月 21 日，公司公布发行可转换公司债券预案，本次拟发 行可转换公司债券募集资金总额不超过人民币 5.76 亿元。拟使用本 次募集资金金额中 4.65 亿元用于新型智能终端零组件（轻质材料） 智能制造中心项目，通过本项目的实施，公司将构建和强化以轻质材 料应用为基础的先进制造工艺的研发及规模化制造能力，推进和完善 公司多样化精密零部件平台建设。 AI 驱动产品形态多元演进，轻量化为智能终端创新方向之一 AI 对智能终端功能体系与应用场景的重构，驱动产品形态向多元化 方向演进，不仅催生行业增量市场，更促使硬件厂商将轻量化作为核 心创新方向之一。以 AI 手机、AIPC、AI 眼镜为代表的新型智能终端 加速渗透消费市场，其核心应用场景正从传统固定式操作向穿戴、手 持及移动化交互迁移。鉴于端侧 AI 功能使用频率与其在多场景下实 现人机直接交互的能力高度关联，智能终端设备的轻便性与便携性已 成为消费者购机决策的关键要素。以钛合金、镁 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng with a target price of HKD 6.0 [1][4]. Core Insights - Bosideng's revenue for the first half of FY26 increased by 1.4% year-on-year to RMB 89.28 billion, while net profit rose by 5.3% to RMB 11.89 billion, indicating healthy growth [2][4]. - The brand's down jacket business saw an 8.3% increase in revenue to RMB 65.68 billion, although the gross margin declined by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% [2][4]. - The OEM business faced challenges, with revenue decreasing by 11.7% to RMB 20.44 billion, but gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 20.5% due to better supply chain management [3][4]. - The women's clothing segment experienced an 18.6% decline in revenue to RMB 2.51 billion, reflecting a tough market environment [3][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing channel quality and enhancing store operations, with a net increase of 88 down jacket stores to 3,558 [3][4]. Financial Summary - For FY26, the projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 0.35, with a growth forecast of 10.1% for revenue and 11.3% for net profit [4][5]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 57.3% for FY26, with a net profit margin of 13.7% [5][14]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue from RMB 28.51 billion in FY26 to RMB 34.70 billion by FY28, with corresponding net profits rising from RMB 3.91 billion to RMB 4.86 billion [5][14].

2025 年 12 月 04 日 永新光学(603297.SH) 多元业务布局半导体光学，高端显微镜 持续推进 "十五五"规划强调高端仪器技术攻关，公司参与重大专项 "十五五"规划提出采取超常规措施，全链条推动集成电路、工业母 机、高端仪器等重点领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破。公司在 承接多个国家"十三五""十四五"规划重大科技项目并参与"十五 五"规划的重大专项上，与国家战略同频，开展新一期战略规划。公 司将加速进行高端科学仪器、高端医疗设备的国产替代，加快全球化 进程并建立国际供应链，进一步开拓核心光学产品在生命科学、创新 医疗、人工智能及半导体方面的应用。 高端显微镜比例继续提升，2H25 显微镜业务预计将恢复性增长 2025 年上半年，公司再次牵头国家重大仪器专项《多模态纳米分辨 率显微镜》，攻关亚 2nm 超分辨成像技术及产业化，牵头的另一项国 家重大专项《眼科手术导航显微镜》顺利通过中期验收，行业内承担 国家级科技项目数量领先。公司依托技术优势错位竞争，高端显微镜 继续保持增长，占显微镜销售比例提升至 40%以上，并获取潜在项目 数千万元。随着设备更新资金的逐步落地，已提前确定的意向订单将 快 ...