Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target of "A" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming ESMO conference as a significant catalyst for the innovative drug sector, with multiple domestic companies expected to disclose important data [3][21] - The report suggests focusing on several key companies and products that are likely to benefit from upcoming catalysts, including academic conferences, business development (BD) realizations, and negotiations for medical insurance [20] Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From October 6 to October 12, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were Yongtai Bio (+13.47%), Fuhong Hanlin (+3.06%), Keji Pharma (+2.77%), Betta Pharma (+1.57%), and Aidi Pharma (+0.83%). The top five losers were Rongchang Bio (-20.97%), Nuocheng Jianhua (-14.83%), Chuangsheng Group (-11.23%), Yifang Bio (-9.77%), and Kelun Botai (-9.08%) [16][17] Recommended Focus Stocks - The report recommends attention on products with high overseas market potential, including: 1. PD-1 upgraded products: Sanofi Pharma 2. GLP-1 assets: Lianbang Pharma 3. ADC assets: Kelun Botai, Baile Tianheng - Potential heavyweights for overseas licensing include: 1. PD-1 upgraded products: Kangfang Bio, Innovent Biologics 2. Breakthroughs in autoimmune fields: Yifang Bio, China Antibody 3. Innovative target ADCs: Fuhong Hanlin, Shiyao Group - Products likely to benefit from medical insurance negotiations include: Hengrui Medicine, Kangnuo Pharma, Maiwei Bio, Zhixiang Jintai, and Haichuang Pharma [20] New Drug Approval and Acceptance Status - No new drug or new indication applications were approved this week, but one new drug application was accepted [25] - A total of 117 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 22 new drug clinical applications were accepted this week [10][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" for the electronic industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of China's export control on rare earth elements, linking approvals to high-end chip manufacturing, which enhances China's bargaining power and accelerates the domestic semiconductor industry's self-sufficiency [1]. - TSMC reported a revenue of approximately NT$330.98 billion for September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.4%, driven by sustained AI demand [2]. - Qualcomm is under investigation by China's market regulator for failing to report its acquisition of Autotalks, a semiconductor company focused on V2X technology [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector index PE is at 72.55 times, with a 10-year PE percentile of 93.31% [4]. - The electronic sector experienced a decline of 2.63% during the week of October 8-10, 2025, ranking 30th out of 31 sectors [30][31]. Stock Performance - The top three gainers in the electronic sector for the week were Canxin Technology (17.98%), Yake Technology (15.17%), and Deep Technology (13.81%), while the top three losers were Tailong Technology (-14.67%), Jucheng Technology (-13.46%), and Lianyun Technology (-12.61%) [34]. Valuation Metrics - As of October 10, 2025, the electronic industry sub-sectors' PE ratios are as follows: Semiconductor (115.01 times), Consumer Electronics (43.93 times), Components (58.97 times), Optical Electronics (55.46 times), Other Electronics (81.60 times), and Electronic Chemicals (72.92 times) [38]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the domestic computing sector such as Huafeng Technology, Feirongda, and Xingsen Technology, as well as storage companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Bawei Storage [9].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market is experiencing a "strong fluctuation" state, with the A-share index having reached a psychological expectation of a liquidity bull market since late August [1] - The report emphasizes the need for a transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to a fundamental-driven bull market, suggesting that the market will gradually validate this process [1][4] - It highlights the potential for significant style shifts in Q4, advising investors to prepare for these changes based on historical trends [1] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent escalation in US-China trade tensions, particularly the announcement of a 100% tariff increase on Chinese goods, has led to market volatility, reminiscent of previous market downturns [2][28] - It observes that the current asset declines are less severe than those seen in April, indicating a desensitization to Trump's tariff policies and a greater market expectation for TACO trades [2][29] - The report suggests that the A-share and US stock markets are currently at relatively high valuation levels compared to April, which may limit upward movement despite the potential for a rebound [3][39] Group 3 - The report predicts that the ongoing US-China tariff conflict may represent a "final struggle" before reaching a phase of negotiation, with a high probability of both sides moving towards a compromise by year-end [4] - It identifies three key signals to monitor: the outcome of the APEC meeting, the US's potential interest rate cuts, and China's economic policies under the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] Group 4 - The report highlights that sectors such as semiconductors, rare earths, and military technology are expected to benefit from the current geopolitical tensions and price increase expectations [5] - It notes a shift in market dynamics, suggesting that low-positioned cyclical stocks and overseas expansion may become the focus for Q4, requiring ongoing assessment [5] Group 5 - The report discusses the inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a strong interest in technology and internet sectors, with significant net inflows observed [21][27] - It emphasizes that the current valuation levels of the Hang Seng Technology Index are lower compared to the A-share market, suggesting potential for relative outperformance [46][51] Group 6 - The report indicates that the earnings forecasts for the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index have been revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook driven by several factors, including increased capital expenditure in technology firms [53][55] - It highlights that the overall improvement in profitability in the Hong Kong market is supported by strong demand in AI, semiconductor, and new consumption sectors [55][56]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of recent geopolitical events, including the U.S. government shutdown and potential tariffs on Chinese imports, which have led to increased prices for precious and industrial metals [1][2]. - There is a focus on the strategic attributes of rare earth metals and the safe-haven properties of gold in the short term, while maintaining a long-term outlook on the fundamentals of copper, aluminum, tin, cobalt, and tantalum [1]. - The report suggests that the recent announcements from the U.S. and China regarding rare earths indicate a shift towards dual control of technology and supply chains, which may lead to a new round of price increases in the rare earth sector [7]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have seen increases of 3.6% and 3.0% respectively, with COMEX gold closing at $3986.2 per ounce and silver at $47.4 per ounce [2]. - The market is expected to continue favoring gold due to policy uncertainties and rising demand for silver, which has been included in the U.S. critical minerals list [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper closing at $10,374 per ton, reflecting a 0.86% rise [3]. - Supply constraints from major producers and a slight recovery in demand post-holiday are expected to support copper prices [3]. - Aluminum prices have also risen, with LME aluminum at $2,746 per ton, although recent geopolitical tensions have caused some volatility [3][7]. Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the growing anxiety in the U.S. and Europe regarding the supply of rare earth materials, particularly for AI and military applications [8]. - Recent policy changes in China regarding rare earth management are expected to influence market dynamics positively, with potential price increases anticipated [8]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise due to limited supply and strong demand, particularly in the context of the upcoming export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to pioneers in superconducting quantum computing, establishing a solid theoretical foundation for future technological advancements in this field [1][10] - The confirmation of macroscopic quantum tunneling effects through Josephson junctions has paved the way for the development of superconducting qubits, which are essential for quantum computing [2][12] - The superconducting quantum computing industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in quantum chips from major players like Google and domestic institutions, indicating a promising future for commercial quantum computers [3][12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The computer industry index decreased by 2.04% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.41 percentage points [14][15] - Year-to-date, the computer industry has seen a gain of 33.10% [15] Market Trends - The report highlights the successful implementation of quantum computing technologies, with notable achievements such as Google's 53-qubit "Sycamore" chip demonstrating quantum supremacy [3][12] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Guoshun Quantum, Hexin Instruments, and others for potential investment opportunities in the growing quantum computing sector [3][13] Important News - The report discusses the issuance of guidelines for the deployment of AI models in government sectors, emphasizing the need for tailored applications based on specific scenarios [21] - It also mentions the planned IPO of Zhiyuan Robotics in Hong Kong, aiming for a valuation between 40 billion to 50 billion HKD [21]

- The report highlights the "industry rotation model" which suggests focusing on sectors such as dividend low volatility, building materials, Hong Kong Stock Connect consumer, medical, non-ferrous metals, brokerage, and media[2][8][15] - The industry rotation model is constructed based on signals derived from sector performance, crowding metrics, and market trends. It identifies sectors with potential trading opportunities by analyzing ETF benchmark indices and their performance in terms of volume, price movement, and technical indicators[15] - Specific signals from the industry rotation model include opportunities in sectors like CSI Red Dividend Low Volatility 100, CSI Red Dividend, Shanghai Composite Index, and others. These signals are based on factors such as strong oscillation trends, volume increase, and crossing multiple moving averages[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the AI industry, including a multi-billion dollar chip deal between OpenAI and AMD, which aims to enhance AI data center capabilities [11][22] - The introduction of the DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model marks a step towards next-generation architecture, optimizing long text training and inference efficiency [12][22] - OpenAI's release of the Sora2 video generation model and various platform-level tools further strengthens its ecosystem, allowing developers to create interactive applications within ChatGPT [13][22] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - OpenAI and AMD have signed a chip deal worth hundreds of billions, with OpenAI committing to purchase AI chips valued at 6 gigawatts based on AMD's technology [11] - The partnership aims to deepen collaboration on multiple generations of hardware and software, starting with the AMD Instinct MI450 series [11] 2. Model Developments - The DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model introduces a sparse attention mechanism, enhancing training and inference for long texts [12] - The model's development utilized TileLang, an open-source AI programming language, to optimize code generation [12] 3. Application Advancements - OpenAI's Sora2 model improves video realism and adds audio generation capabilities, allowing users to create personalized video content [13] - The launch of the Apps SDK and Agent Kit during OpenAI's Dev Day enhances the development of interactive applications and AI agents [13] 4. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI computing, applications, physical AI, AIGC, and anti-generative AI sectors [14] - Specific areas of interest include chips, servers, data centers, and various B-end applications [14]

2025 年 10 月 08 日 高波的鱼尾，难测的鱼头 本期要点：高波的鱼尾，难测的鱼头 上期我们提出市场或类似于 2020 年 8 月，将维持高位震荡格局，此 判断与后续市场走势基本吻合。 从行业表现的分化程度来看，各行业滚动一季度的收益率标准差近期 持续扩大。若当前"强者恒强"的格局在未来一至两周内延续，该分 歧度指标预计将突破 2024 年 9 月以来的峰值。历史经验显示，此类 指标的极值通常伴随市场风险偏好的提升而出现；但若后续缺乏推动 风险偏好进一步上行的新动力，行业间的分化程度可能已接近当前市 场的极限。 从交易拥挤度观察，虽然 TMT 板块的成交金额占比已处于历史第三 高位，但若将 TMT 与先进制造板块合并计算，其合计成交占比正逼近 历史最高水平。 尽管行业分歧度与拥挤度均属于偏左侧的参考指标，但它们的当前状 态可能暗示 TMT 板块行情已进入偏鱼尾阶段。由于其他板块目前仍 缺乏清晰的驱动逻辑，市场未能实现顺利切换，导致部分 TMT 领域转 入高位震荡，而仅有少数周期类板块出现小幅异动。在明确的风格或 板块切换信号出现前，建议整体维持现有配置结构，并可逐步尝试小 仓位的高低位调仓。 就大盘指 ...

Demand and Price Trends - Total demand remains stable with no significant slowdown observed, indicating a gradual narrowing of economic fluctuations[2] - Industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 21.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking three consecutive months of profit growth[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth is expected to continue rising due to low base effects, supporting profit margins[4] Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a broad-based economic recovery[6] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points but still within the expansion zone, reflecting overall stability in the service industry[7] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October is anticipated to provide investment guidance for related industries, particularly regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan"[11] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to face headwinds this year, influenced by stock market gains, tax adjustments, and potential inflationary pressures[14] - Long-term bond yields have recently risen, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level this year, indicating ongoing adjustments in the bond market[13] - The overall sentiment suggests that the bond market is still in a phase of adjustment, with upward risks to yields outweighing downward possibilities[14] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE inflation rate for August is reported at 2.7%, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[16] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September is at 52.0, down 1 percentage point, while the services PMI is at 52.9, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy despite slight declines[18] - Market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with projections indicating two rate cuts in 2025, occurring in October and December[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the construction industry, indicating an expected return that exceeds the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments and a moderately loose monetary policy to address challenges such as insufficient demand and low price levels, aiming to stabilize economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels [1][15]. - The Xinjiang region is projected to see a fixed asset investment growth target of around 10% for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% from January to August 2025, surpassing the national investment growth rate by 8.6 percentage points [2][16]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of Xinjiang in developing coal, electricity, and coal chemical industries, with planned coal chemical projects exceeding 900 billion yuan, which is expected to drive regional investment growth [2][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the central bank's focus on counter-cyclical adjustments and the ongoing investment climate in Xinjiang, which is expected to remain positive due to supportive regional policies and a focus on high-quality development [1][15]. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a decline of 1.51% from September 22 to September 26, underperforming compared to major indices like the Shenzhen Composite Index and the CSI 300 [17]. - The engineering consulting services sector showed a positive performance with a 2.38% increase during the same period [17]. Key Investment Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading construction companies such as China Railway, China State Construction, and China Communications Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved fundamentals and government support [10][11]. - It also highlights the potential of companies involved in pre-stressed materials manufacturing and those engaged in AI applications and semiconductor industries, indicating a broad range of investment opportunities [10][11]. Company Announcements - Significant project wins were reported, including China Railway securing contracts worth approximately 502.15 billion yuan, indicating robust demand for construction services [31]. Industry Valuation - As of September 26, the construction and decoration industry had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.55 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.82, reflecting a competitive valuation compared to other sectors [24]. - The report identifies several companies with low valuations, such as China Railway and China State Construction, which may present attractive investment opportunities [24][27].