国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————经济总体平稳，股市中枢抬升 袁方1张端怡2 2025 年 09 月 02 日 内容提要 国投证券宏观定期报告 一、经济总体平稳，价格逐步抬升 从 8 月的 PMI 数据来看，尽管 7 月经济数据大幅下滑，但 8 月这一趋势并 未延续，经济的波动在逐步收窄，工业品价格的上涨有望推动名义增速止跌。同 时，服务业的恢复在暑期人流、消费支出的数据上也得到验证。 我们倾向于认为权益市场上涨的过程有望延续，资产价格的上涨与流动性 环境的宽松对宏观经济的影响是决定市场高度的主要因素，这需要我们密切关 注。 从 2009-2010 年、2014-2015 年的经验来看，牛市的结束往往与监管政策变 化有关。而当前的监管环境仍然友好。监管对舆论的引导、机构行为的指引、杠 杆的控制使得市场总体呈现出慢牛的格局，部分行业估值水平快速抬升，但总体 市场的泡沫化程度可控。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师， ...

2025 年 09 月 02 日 苏州天脉(301626.SZ) 25H1 营收稳健增长，扩产计划稳步推 进静待产能释放 事件：8 月 27 日公司发布 2025 年半年度报告 1）25H1 公司实现营业收入 5.08 亿元，同比增加 11.20%；归母净利 润 0.94 亿元，同比减少 2.14%；扣非后归母净利润 0.91 亿元，同比 减少 1.21%。 2）25Q2 公司实现营业收入 2.58 亿元，同比增加 17.10%；归母净利 润 0.40 亿元，同比增加 0.04%；扣非后归母净利润 0.38 亿元，同比 增加 5.36%。 整体业务毛利率稳定，市场开拓/研发加码拉高费用率 25H1 公司毛利率为 41.64%，同比+1.26pcts，毛利率与 24H1 相比基 本保持稳定；销售/管理/研发费用率分别为 3.39%/8.58%/8.86%，同 比+0.27pcts/+1.48pcts/+1.45pcts，费用率有所上升的主要原因为 25H1 公司市场开拓增加咨询服务费及业务招待费，职工薪酬、折旧 及摊销有所增加，以及研发人员数量增加。 散热产品生产基地预计 26 年 6 月投产，把握散热需求增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 295.2 CNY based on an expected 80 times PE for 2026 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, achieving 2.046 billion CNY in revenue for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.85%, and a net profit of 531 million CNY, up 190.61% year-on-year [1][2]. - The AIoT market is experiencing robust demand, with the company's flagship products, such as RK3588 and RK3576, driving significant revenue and profit growth, reaching historical highs in Q2 2025 [2][3]. - The company is focusing on continuous product iteration, launching its first edge computing co-processor, RK182X, and developing next-generation flagship chips, enhancing its AIoT SoC platform [3]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 42.29% and a net margin of 25.96% [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.364 billion CNY, 5.659 billion CNY, and 7.045 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.117 billion CNY, 1.554 billion CNY, and 1.974 billion CNY [4][11]. - The company has maintained high R&D investment, with 279 million CNY spent in H1 2025, indicating a commitment to innovation [1][3]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading domestic SoC provider, benefiting from a strategic advantage in the AIoT sector as it enters a growth cycle [4]. - The anticipated growth in the global AIoT market in 2026 is expected to further enhance the company's market position [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 140.07 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by demand growth and AI applications at the edge [1][2]. - The company's wafer foundry revenue increased by 25.91% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, positioning it as the second-largest pure-play foundry globally [2]. - The company is expected to continue its revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025, with a projected revenue increase of 5%-7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 32.348 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.14%, and a net profit of 2.301 billion CNY, up 39.76% year-on-year [1]. - For the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 16.047 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.34%, but a net profit decrease of 16.96% [1][2]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 21.91%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The wafer foundry revenue by application showed strong growth in the computer and tablet, consumer electronics, and industrial and automotive sectors, with increases of 33.31%, 53.80%, and 65.15% respectively [3]. - The smartphone segment saw a slight decline of 1.67% year-on-year, while the interconnected and wearable segment decreased by 13.63% [3]. Capacity and Capital Expenditure - The company expanded its monthly production capacity by nearly 20,000 12-inch equivalent wafers in the first half of 2025, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.5% in the second quarter [10]. - Capital expenditure in the second quarter of 2025 was 1.885 billion USD, a 33.18% increase from the first quarter [10]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 67.33 billion CNY, 77.77 billion CNY, and 89.28 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 5.04 billion CNY, 6.09 billion CNY, and 7.23 billion CNY [11][13].

2025 年 09 月 01 日 神州信息(000555.SZ) 聚焦金融科技，布局人工智能和出海 人工智能方面，公司积极探索并应用 AIGC 技术，2025 年上半年公 司基于 DeepSeek 对金融知识问答智能体 Financial Master 及金融代 码助手智能体 Code Master 进行了全面升级。其中，基于 Financial Master，公司与华为展开深度战略合作，正式推出了运行于昇腾 AI 软硬件平台的"金融知识问答"智能体一体机解决方案。与此同时， 公司大力推进全量解决方案的"+AI"战略。在金融行业，公司核心、 信贷、渠道、数据、风险及云解决方案等解决方案，均已实现 AIGC 场景的落地应用。 海外业务方面，公司持续推进全球化战略，2025 年加大海外业务投 入，在团队建设、产品研发、市场拓展与交付保障等方面重点发力， 与多家国际银行建立战略合作，国际业务综合竞争力与市场影响力显 著提升。产品层面，公司升级了以 Sm@rtOneBank 一体化金融解决方 案为核心的海外产品体系，提升功能、架构及交付维护能力；积极探 索 AI 在海外金融场景的落地应用，显著提升运营效率与客户价值。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 11.90 CNY, maintaining the rating [3][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profitability, with expectations for operational improvement and demand recovery in the future [2][3]. - The company has a strong position in the mid-to-high-end market for decorative paper, with significant advantages in product quality, cost control, and customer resources, indicating potential for market share growth and long-term growth prospects [2][3]. - The company has made positive progress in response to the EU anti-dumping investigation, with a reduction in the anti-dumping tax rate from 34.9% to 26.4%, which is expected to have a limited impact on sales in Europe [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.627 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.43%, and a net profit of 156 million CNY, down 48.47% year-on-year [1][3]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 12.99%, a decline of 5.66 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2025 gross margin at 12.24%, down 4.96 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.57%, a decrease of 5.95 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.038 billion CNY, 4.360 billion CNY, and 4.753 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.16%, 7.95%, and 9.02% [9][11]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 425 million CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 9.44%, followed by growth of 13.40% and 13.45% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a 12-month target price of 20.47 yuan [5][8]. Core Views - The company's navigation business is experiencing a rapid recovery, leading to a significant rebound in performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 1.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 481.19%, and a net profit of 116 million yuan compared to a loss of 74 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. - The company's subsidiaries, Hengyang Optoelectronics and Zhongbing Hanglian, are showing stable profit growth, with Hengyang Optoelectronics' net profit increasing by 30% to 27 million yuan despite a revenue decline of 6.18% [3]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment to solidify its leading position in the navigation sector, with R&D expenses of 141 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.02% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.32%, with a net margin of 6.4%, reflecting an increase of 3.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 257 million yuan, 359 million yuan, and 449 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 336%, 39.39%, and 24.99% [5][12]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly from 3.565 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.804 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [12].

公司延续高研发投入巩固在光纤传感领域的先发优势，期内研发费用 同比增长 41.44%至 0.18 亿元，研发费用率 9.5%。以光纤环为核心和 起点，积极打通产业链上下游，建立了自主可控的"纤-胶-环-模块 -设备"完整产业链，形成公司核心竞争力。 2025 年 09 月 01 日 长盈通(688143.SH) 业绩快速修复，拟收购生一升打开成长空间 光纤环收入增长超 200%，盈利能力快速修复 分产品看，光纤环器件收入 1.11 亿元，同比+207%，毛利率 56.63%， 同比+15.91pct；特种光纤收入 0.37 亿元，同比-20.85%，毛利率 73.88%，同比-0.12pct；新型材料收入 0.13 亿元，同比+10.76%，毛 利率 24.11%，同比-6.71pct；光器件设备及其他收入 0.08 亿元，同 比-47.6%，毛利率 53.32%，同比+14.05pct。整体来看，1H25 光纤环 器件快速增长推动公司业绩实现恢复，盈利能力实现快速修复。 持续加大研发投入，夯实光纤传感领先地位 事件：25H1 公司实现营收 1.92 亿元，同比+40.4%；归母净利润 0.29 亿元，同比+ ...

2025 年 09 月 01 日 航材股份(688563.SH) 整合高温合金资源，收购镇江钛合金 事件：2025H1 公司营收 13.6 亿元，同比-9.87%%；归母净利润 2.8 亿元，同比-9.92%；扣非归母净利润 2.51 亿元，同比-7.64%。 基础材料业务营收与毛利率增长，公司整体盈利能力保持稳定 分业务看，公司基础材料营收 6.07 亿元，同比+6.22%，毛利率 34.39%， 同比+10.75pct；航空成品件营收 6.33 亿元，同比-13.19%，毛利率 28.23%，同比-9.74pct；非航空成品件营收 0.57 亿元，同比-65.13%， 毛利率 12.08%，同比+0.19pct；加工服务营收 0.54 亿元，同比 +47.83%，毛利率 41.38%，同比+28.82pct。公司营收减少系本期航空 成品件和非航空成品件收入减少和销售产品结构变化所致。2025H1 公司毛利率 31.3%，同比+1.86pct；净利率 20.59%，同比-0.02pct。 下游或需求回暖，在手合同金额超 15 亿元 公司无形资产 2.95 亿元，较期初+150.79%，系购买六项高温合金母 ...

2025 年 09 月 01 日 国科军工(688543.SH) 业绩短期承压，产能建设不断优化 事件：2025H1 公司实现营收 4.17 亿元，同比-13.37%；归母净 利润 0.77 亿元，同比-3.18%；扣非归母净利润 0.62 亿元，同比 18.59%。报告期内，公司增加股份支付费用 0.19 亿元，剔除该因 素影响，实现归母净利润 0.95 亿元，同比+19.64%。 受原材料影响营收短期承压，盈利能力小幅提升 分产品看，25H1 公司军品业务实现营收 3.96 亿元，同比-13.92%； 民品业务实现营收 0.20 亿元，同比+3.75%。上半年公司围绕年度工 作目标，持续加强能力建设、保障产品顺利交付，但受上游专用原材 料供给不及预期影响，营收同比下滑。盈利能力端，公司毛利率 38.41%，同比+2.25pct；净利率 18.52%，同比+1.27pct。 持续加码研发投入，公司积极备产备货 期间费用端，公司研发/销售/管理费用分别为 0.55/0.08/0.40 亿元， 同比+29.21%/+7.83%/+11.62%，公司在研项目预计总投资规模 5.17 亿元，累计投入 3.94 亿元 ...