Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 0.18%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.10%[1] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 1,173.3 billion CNY, showing a decrease compared to the previous week[1] Market Trends - The market has entered a low-volatility environment, with the 60-day volatility of the CSI 300 index dropping below 0.6%, indicating a potential for rapid volatility expansion[1] - Historical data suggests that a volatility threshold of 0.5% often precedes significant market movements, although there is no clear risk of a "double bottom" at this time[1] Economic Outlook - There is an optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, driven by various positive developments in technology and consumption sectors, suggesting a transition from old to new economic drivers[2] - The new consumption index in A-shares has risen by 18.74% this year, while the Hong Kong consumption index has increased by 24.31%[4] Sector Performance - The banking sector and micro-cap stocks have reached new highs, supported by quantitative forces, while the pricing is more influenced by market sentiment than by fundamental performance[3] - The technology sector, particularly the DeepSeek concept and humanoid robots, has seen significant gains of 32.95% and 24.49% respectively this year, contrasting with a decline of 1.56% in traditional economic indices[4] Investment Strategy - A barbell strategy is recommended, maintaining high-value assets as a core investment, especially in light of potential impacts from tariffs and external economic pressures[4] - The current market environment suggests a focus on long-term trends rather than short-term industry rotations, with an emphasis on sectors demonstrating clear growth potential[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform-A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that several newly included innovative drugs in the medical insurance directory are rapidly entering hospitals, with significant growth in hospital admissions for specific drugs compared to the end of December 2024 [2][20] - The report notes that the new drug market has seen substantial fluctuations, with the top five gainers and losers in the new drug sector during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025 [1][16] Summary by Sections New Drug Market Review - From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: - Sanofi (99.96%) - Oconovision Biotech-B (43.66%) - Yiming Oncology-B (38.40%) - Chuangsheng Group-B (36.45%) - Canaan Jiangrui Pharmaceutical-B (34.03%) - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: - Junsheng Tai Pharmaceutical-B (-14.33%) - Mengke Pharmaceutical (-3.34%) - Dize Pharmaceutical (-2.88%) - Yunding Xinyao (-2.70%) - Dongyao Pharmaceutical-B (-2.66%) [1][16] Key Industry Analysis - The National Medical Insurance Administration updated the hospital admission data for innovative drugs included in the medical insurance directory as of the end of March 2025, showing rapid hospital entry for several newly included domestic innovative drugs [2][20] - Notable drugs with fast growth in hospital admissions include: - Yunding Xinyao's Budesonide Enteric-Coated Capsules - Zaiqian Pharmaceutical's Recombinant Human Thrombin - Innovent Biologics' Toripalimab - Haisco's Alogliptin and Clobazam - Xinlitai's Aliskiren Amlodipine and Benzyl Glimepiride - Hengrui Medicine's Otilonium Bromide - China National Pharmaceutical's Anakinra and Ivosidenib [2][20][21] New Drug Approval and Acceptance - This week, 10 new drugs or new indications received approval for market entry, including: - Pyrocyclic Tablets by Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology - Anlotinib Hydrochloride Capsules by Zhengda Tianqing - Injection of Camrelizumab by Shengdiya Biopharmaceutical - Injection of Bemarituzumab by Zhengda Tianqing - Injection of Vilazodone by Beihai Kangcheng - Injection of Acetylcysteine by Jingding Pharmaceutical - Ribociclib Succinate Tablets by Novartis - Asunaprevir Tablets by Novartis - Injection of Tenecteplase by Boehringer Ingelheim - Injection of Tanshinone by Novartis [3][24] Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance - This week, 10 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 43 new drug clinical applications were accepted [4][29]

2025 年 05 月 25 日 震荡偏弱，但下行风险或有限 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 杨勇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1450518010002 yangyong1@essence.com.cn 相关报告 | 或仅是整理，蓄势以待机 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 结构重于仓位，继续关注先 | 2025-05-11 | | 进制造 | | | 红五月可期，还看科技与先 | 2025-05-05 | | 进制造 | | | 美元阶段见底，科技有望崛 | 2025-04-27 | | 起 | | | 低位震荡，下行风险或有限 | 2025-04-20 | 本期要点：震荡偏弱，但下行风险或有限 上周五下午市场出现明显回落，显示市场在近期的震荡巩固过程中走 势偏弱。从周期分析模型的视角看，本轮自 4 月初以来的反弹或无已 经完全结束的充分证据；从模型当下给出的本轮调整的性质看，或有 望最多回到 4 月底 5 月初的震荡区间，随后再重新开始一波上行走 势，只有在那波上行趋势再次衰竭的时候才能判断本轮反弹是否真正 结束了。 从缠论的视角看，自去年四季度以来，大盘整体处于一个大的 ...

首先，我们对过去两三年在科技投研领域的心路历程进行回顾。2023 年初，我们 提出 "只要经济弱复苏，TMT 就不会输" 的产业主题投资观点，并反复强调应围 绕 AI 这一未来 3 - 5 年的科技投资主线展开布局。到了去年第四季度，我们坚 定推荐以 TMT 和科创 50 指数为核心的 AI 科技和科创领域，并进一步提出 "半 导体是下一个汽车" 的观点。我们坚信，在 AI+ 国产 + 业绩释放的过程中，半 导体领域有望与过去的汽车产业相媲美，展现出巨大的发展潜力。当然，我们并非 单纯的科技多头，而是通过灵活的策略调整来应对市场变化。2025 年 2 月下旬， 我们发布《98 度的科技》和《准备好高切低》两篇报告，准确预判三月份市场可 能出现的高切低现象，事实上这一判断也得到了精准验证。 我们将科技产业投资划分为理论基础及四阶段投资、龙头命运和 N 字型定价规律 三个部分。特别是我们提出的 "科技投资的胜负手是 C 点" 这一认知，其并非 仅基于简单的统计分析，还结合了过去十余年对移动互联网、新能源汽车以及 2023 年 AI 领域表现优异投资者的投资行为与配置思路的深入分析。例如本轮 AI 定价时期的中际旭 ...

2025 年 05 月 20 日 传媒 Agent 初具技术雏形，重点关注三大演 化方向 AGI 正迈向自主行动阶段，指向 Agent、具身智能。人工智能技 术经过几轮迭代，已经基本迈过"感知-思考"的应用临界点，正 在逐步实现"自主行动"的发展阶段，根据应用场景划分为 Agent、 具身智能两个大方向。我们曾以人形机器人为切入点探讨过具身 智能相关的技术原理、发展路径、主要参与者等，本篇将聚焦于 Agent 方向，梳理其技术构成、演进阶段等。 证券研究报告 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 | | | 2023 年至今国内外模型迭代速度非常快，推动了 Agent 产品感 知、规划、记忆能力提升：1）GPT4、4o 模型从单一文本走向多模 态，模型感知能力更全面；2）o1 通过后训练增强推理能力，模型 推理能力实现突破；3）上下文窗口扩展至 100 万 token，模型记 忆能力提升，将更了解用户；4）模型使用成本大幅下降，试错成 本下降，2025 年 DeepSeek 模型的报价为 0.25-0.5 元/百万 token， 约为 GPT-4o 的 1/7。 使用工具的能力是 LLM 模型与 Agent 的最 ...

2025 年 05 月 20 日 房地产 4 月地产季节性回落 销售规模环比回落 2025 年 1 至 4 月，商品房销售面积 2.8 亿㎡（YoY-2.8%），商品房销 售额 2.7 万亿（YoY-3.2%），累计销售均价 9565.8 元/㎡（YoY-0.3%）； 4 月当月，销售面积 0.6 亿㎡（YoY-2.1%），销售额 0.6 万亿（YoY- 6.7%），4 月销售环比 3 月回落明显。 经历一季度需求复苏带动的销售改善后，4 月销售环比季节性回落显 著，商品房销售面积及销售金额 4 月单月环比回落幅度在 40%左右， 与近三年同期环比回落幅度接近。 施工活动仍待改善 2025 年 1 至 4 月，全国商品房新开工面积 1.8 亿㎡（YoY-23.8%）， 竣工面积 1.6 亿㎡（YoY-16.9%），施工面积 62 亿㎡（YoY-9.7%）；单 月层面，新开工面积 0.5 亿㎡（YoY-22.1%），竣工面积 0.3 亿㎡（YoY- 27.9%），降幅相较于 3 月进一步扩大。 2025 年以来，在房地产行业信用风险收敛的环境下，行业在持续经 历供给收缩，等待需求复苏带动房价进一步企稳的过程。4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 8.68 CNY, based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 0.59 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 196.22% [1][3]. - The company continues to pursue a global strategy, achieving a revenue of 84.49 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5.94%, despite challenging economic conditions [2][9]. - The European market has been a standout performer, with overseas revenue reaching 67.50 billion CNY in 2024, up 6.68% year-on-year, and the company expects continued growth in this region [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from mattress sales was 44.15 billion CNY, up 10.95% year-on-year, while other product lines showed mixed results [2][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.85%, a decrease of 1.50 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 39.37% in Q1 2025 [3][11]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 11.45%, 11.47%, and 10.30% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected to reach 2.61 billion CNY in 2025 [9][12][13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic memory foam mattress market, focusing on global capacity expansion and brand internationalization [9][10]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs has been limited, and the company is leveraging its local production capabilities in the U.S. to enhance market share [8][9]. - The company plans to strengthen regional market development and channel construction to enhance competitiveness and drive stable growth in its ODM business [8][9].

袁方1 张端怡（联系人）2魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 05 月 19 日 内容提要 国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————关税影响体现，后续风险可控 4 月工业增加值同比、PPI 环比出现走弱，同时投资、消费、出口出现小幅 下滑，这些数据表明受对等关税的影响，我国总需求出现收缩。 不过考虑到关税谈判的积极进展、与稳增长政策的出台，预计 5 月、6 月经 济减速的幅度或许相对温和，经济失速的风险可控。 近期资金利率出现抬升，部分投资者担心 1 月中旬局面的重现。不过当前经 济面临的下行压力大于年初、汇率贬值的压力弱于当时、同时债券市场收益率的 中枢也更高。因此从各个维度来讲，央行重新大幅收紧资金的概率似乎有限。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2联系人，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn，S1450123040002 3联系人，weiwei2@essence.com.cn，S1450123100017 第 1 页， ...

2025 年 05 月 19 日 农林牧渔 气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏 弱 生猪养殖：气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏弱 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.77 元/kg，周环比-0.27%，两周环比-0.07%； 仔猪价格 630 元/头，周环比-2.63%，两周环比-1.47%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.84 元/kg，周环比+0.07%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 16.91 万头，周环比变动-2.49%。 周观点：周内全国均价震荡偏弱，整体来看，本周终端需求表现平淡， 屠企白条反馈走货难度较强，维持对价格的下压操作，可供应端口尚 未呈现明显节奏加快表现，从而传导至屠企端口竞价较为谨慎，所以 本周日间价格波动幅度不大。短期来看，气温升高拖累消费整体增幅 空间受限，不过从供给端口来看，头部集团、放养公司以及二次育肥， 均存在一定增量空间，所以供需对抗预期来看，供给端议价话语权或 有下降，所以预计近期行情维持偏弱运行。 家禽养殖：白羽肉鸡久稳小跌，分割品强硬挺价 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示，本周种蛋价格偏弱势运行为主。受鸡苗 价格弱势影响，种蛋市场交投不快，企业上孵意愿偏弱，且种 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 8.68 CNY, based on a 19x PE for 2025 [4][9][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.449 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.94%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -151 million CNY, a decline of 242.04% year-on-year [2][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.043 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.31%, and a net profit of 59 million CNY, up 196.22% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is focusing on global capacity and brand internationalization, with significant performance in the European market, which has seen double-digit growth for two consecutive years [2][9]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's mattress business generated 4.415 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 10.95% year-on-year, while the bedding business saw a decline of 4.08% to 596 million CNY [2][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 36.85%, down 1.50 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 39.37% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.84 percentage points [3][7]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was -2.12%, with a significant recovery to 2.59% in Q1 2025 [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading domestic memory foam mattress brand, benefiting from its global production layout and brand internationalization strategy [9][11]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs has been limited, and the company is leveraging its local production advantages in the U.S. to capture market share [8][9]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 9.416 billion CNY, 10.497 billion CNY, and 11.578 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 11.45%, 11.47%, and 10.30% respectively [10][12].