2025 年 05 月 08 日 宝钢包装(601968.SH) 金属包装龙头地位稳固， 海外布局成效逐步彰显 事件：宝钢包装发布 2024 年年度报告和 2025 年一季报。24 年 公司实现营业收入 83.18 亿元，同比增长 7.19%；归母净利润 1.72 亿元，同比下降 21.13%；扣非后归母净利润 1.67 亿元，同比下 降 22.62%。24Q4 公司实现营业收入 21.58 亿元，同比增长 11.00%； 归母净利润 0.15 亿元，同比下降 6.04%；扣非后归母净利润 0.17 亿元，同比增长 35.85%。 25Q1 公司实现营业收入 20.02 亿元，同比增长 1.02%；归母净利 润 0.57 亿元，同比增长 2.67%；扣非后归母净利润 0.57 亿元， 同比增长 9.17%。 金属饮料罐稳健增长，彩印铁业务承压，产品结构持续优化 24 年公司持续优化产品结构和海外业务布局，提升核心竞争力，着 力提高经营质效。分产品看，24 年公司金属饮料罐/包装彩印铁分别 实现收入 78.58/4.47 亿元，同比分别增长 8.22%/-7.36%，占比分别 为 94.46%/5.38%。1） ...

2025 年 05 月 08 日 洛阳钼业(603993.SH) 拟收购金矿+推动组织升级，剑指世界 一流矿 企 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报 公司 2024 年实现营收 2130 亿元，同比+14%；归母净利 135 亿元， 同比+64%；扣非归母净利 131.19 亿元，同比+110%。 公司 2025Q1 实现营收 460 亿，同比-0.3%、环比-21%；归母净利 39.5 亿元，同比+90%、环比-25%；扣非归母净利 39.3 亿元，同 比+88%、环比-14%。 ✔后续看点： 1）降本增效：2025 公司计划 TFM 依托中区 10K、 15K 选冶工艺优化，东区 17K 工艺调整等技改项目，进一步降本 提产，并加大勘探力度增储，加速推进 Heshima 水电站等电力开 发项目。2）增量可观：2024 年公司提出未来五年的发展目标，其 中目标年产铜金属 80-100 万吨、钴金属 9-10 万吨，远期增量 空间可观。 钨钼铌磷生产经营稳定 ✔钨钼：1）量：2024 年钨产量 8288 吨，同比+4%，钼产量 1.54 万吨，同比-1.5%。钨销量 8132 吨，同比+3%；钼 ...

2025 年 05 月 08 日 洛阳钼业(603993.SH) 拟收购金矿+推动组织升级，剑指世界 一流矿 企 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报 公司 2024 年实现营收 2130 亿元，同比+14%；归母净利 135 亿元， 同比+64%；扣非归母净利 131.19 亿元，同比+110%。 ✔价&利：铜价上涨增厚利润，2025 年钴价显著反弹。1）价：2024 年铜价 9147 美元/吨，同比+8%；金属钴价格 11.26 美元/磅，同 比-25%。2025Q1，LME 铜、金属钴分别环比+1.6%、13.9%，钴价显 著反弹。2）利：2024 年铜板块毛利 210.37 亿元，吨毛利 3.05 万 元，吨毛利同比+0.19 万元，钴板块毛利 30 亿元，吨毛利 2.76 万 元，吨毛利同比-1.48 万元。3）2024 年，KFM 通过技改、工艺优 化、管理精益，成功降低生产成本、提升设备运转率和铜、钴回 收率。 ✔后续看点： 1）降本增效：2025 公司计划 TFM 依托中区 10K、 15K 选冶工艺优化，东区 17K 工艺调整等技改项目，进一步降本 提产，并加大勘探力度增储，加速 ...

2025 年 05 月 08 日 深信服(300454.SZ) 业绩逐步回暖，云计算向 AI 升级 事件概述 公司近期发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报，2024 年公司实现营业 收入 75.20 亿元，同比下降 1.86%，实现归母净利润 1.97 亿元，同 比下降 0.49%。2025 年一季度，公司实现营业收入 12.62 亿元，同比 增长 21.91%，实现归母净利润-2.50 亿元，同比增长 48.93%。公司 业绩有所回暖，云计算业务向 AI 升级，有望带来新的增长点。 云计算业务带动增长，费用管控良好带来业绩弹性 从收入拆分来看，公司 2024 年网络安全业务实现收入 36.29 亿元， 同比下降 6.75%，我们认为主要是受到宏观环境的影响。公司多项产 品依然处于行业前列，且重点培养的 XDR、安全托管服务（MSS）增 长较快，市场份额逐年提升。因此未来若伴随宏观环境的逐渐改善， 公司网安业务仍有弹性。公司 2024 年云计算及 IT 基础设施业务收 入为 33.84 亿元，同比增长 9.51%。根据公司年报披露，2023 年全 年，深信服超融合以 17.5%的市占率，在中国超融合市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 22.5 CNY per share, while the current share price is 15.61 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company maintains a high dividend level, planning to distribute 10 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 23.83 billion CNY, which reflects a dividend payout ratio of 81% [8]. - The company achieved a revenue of 50.03 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 2.93 billion CNY, up 5% year-on-year [1][10]. - The company expects to achieve total revenue of 55 billion CNY in 2025, with a profit of 5 billion CNY [8]. Production and Financial Performance - In 2024, the company exceeded its copper production target, achieving 177,543 tons, a 35% increase year-on-year, and a completion rate of 112% [2][11]. - The average copper price in 2024 was 74,932 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [2]. - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 2025 revenue, reaching 16.54 billion CNY, a 51% year-on-year increase [1]. Future Production Plans - The company plans to increase its lead and zinc production in 2025, with expected production of 65,672 tons of lead and 124,581 tons of zinc, both showing year-on-year growth [4][11]. - The company is focusing on the expansion of the Yulong Copper Mine, with ongoing projects to increase processing capacity to 30 million tons per year [8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 61.29 billion CNY, 63.08 billion CNY, and 65.70 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.57 billion CNY, 3.87 billion CNY, and 4.10 billion CNY [9][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.50 CNY, 1.62 CNY, and 1.72 CNY respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.3, 9.6, and 9.0 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 22.5 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company maintains a high dividend level and emphasizes the progress of the Yulong Copper Mine Phase III expansion [8]. - The company achieved a revenue of 50.03 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 2.93 billion CNY, up 5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 16.54 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 51%, and a net profit of 808 million CNY, up 10% year-on-year [1]. Production and Performance Summary - In 2024, the company exceeded its copper production target with a total of 177,543 tons, a 35% increase year-on-year, and a completion rate of 112% [2]. - The average copper price in 2024 was 74,932 CNY/ton, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year increase [2]. - The company plans to produce 168,208 tons of copper in 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase [4]. Financial Forecast - The company aims to achieve total revenue of 55 billion CNY and a total profit of 5 billion CNY in 2025 [8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 61.29 billion CNY, 63.08 billion CNY, and 65.70 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits of 3.57 billion CNY, 3.87 billion CNY, and 4.10 billion CNY [9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.50 CNY, 1.62 CNY, and 1.72 CNY, respectively [9]. Production Plans - The company plans to increase its lead and zinc production in 2025, with a target of 65,672 tons of lead and 124,581 tons of zinc, both showing year-on-year growth [4]. - The Yulong Copper Mine's processing capacity has been upgraded to 22.8 million tons per year, with ongoing expansion projects [8].

2025 年 05 月 08 日 三一重能(688349.SH) "β+α"共振，"双海战略"并举 事件：三一重能发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，全年公司 实现营业总收入 177.92 亿元，同比+19.1%，归母净利润 18.12 亿 元，同比-9.7%；一季度公司实现营业总收入 21.87 亿元，同比 +26.58%，归母净利润-1.91 亿元，同比-171.96%。 风电β景气向上，公司收入有望持续向上增长。 1）总量上：根据 CWEA，2024 年中国风电新增装机 86.99GW，同 比+9.6%，创历史新高，其中陆风、海风新增 81.37GW、5.62GW； 公司新增装机 9.15GW，同比+23.48%；市占率达 10.52%，同比 +1.18pct，国内排名第五；风力发电机组收入 135.79 亿元，同比 +13.75%，持续跑赢行业。 2）结构上：根据年报，2024 年新增装机中，陆风平均单机容量 5.89MW，同比+8.1%，海风平均单机容量 9.98MW，同比+9.6%，风 机大型化趋势持续，2025 年迭代预计放缓。公司陆风机组容量已 布局至 15MW，海风 8.5-16M ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, leading to higher military expenditures across various regions, which is expected to open up opportunities in the global military trade market [1][3] - Global military spending reached $2.44 trillion in 2023, marking a 6.8% year-on-year increase, the largest since 2009, with Africa, Europe, and the Middle East showing significant growth rates [1][10] - China ranks fourth in global arms exports, with a market share of 5.8%, and is expected to increase its share in the future due to shifts in the global military trade landscape [2][11] Summary by Sections Military Expenditure Trends - The report notes that military spending in Africa reached $51.6 billion, a 22% increase; Europe at $588 billion, a 16% increase; and the Middle East at approximately $200 billion, a 9% increase in 2023 [1][10] - NATO members collectively increased military spending to over $1.5 trillion in 2024, accounting for about 55% of global military expenditures, reflecting both external pressures and a desire for defense autonomy in Europe [1] Global Arms Trade Dynamics - The top five arms-exporting countries (USA, France, Russia, China, and Germany) account for 75.4% of the global market, with the report suggesting that while the USA and France may maintain their positions, Russia's exports could decline due to geopolitical factors [2][11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on several areas for investment: 1. Unmanned combat systems, with recommended companies including Aerospace Rainbow, Zhong UAV, and Aerospace Electronics [3][8] 2. Radar and electronic warfare weapons, with suggested companies like Guorui Technology and Aerospace Nanhu [3][8] 3. Main manufacturers likely to push for equipment exports, including Hongdu Aviation and AVIC Chengfei [3][8] 4. Low-cost, high-consumption ammunition supply chain companies such as Guangdong Hongda and Beifang Navigation [3][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the proactive approach of the Chinese government in implementing a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and managing expectations, particularly in the context of potential economic downturns and external pressures [1][9] - The report highlights three main characteristics of the new policies: timeliness, adequacy of tools, and strong determination, indicating a shift from reactive to proactive policy measures [1][8][9] - The report suggests that if economic pressures increase in the second quarter, growth-stabilizing policies may be promptly advanced, potentially leading to a V-shaped recovery for the year [1][9] Group 2 - The report outlines three categories of monetary policies announced by the People's Bank of China, including increasing long-term liquidity supply through reserve requirement ratio cuts, lowering policy interest rates, and enhancing existing structural monetary policy tools [7][12] - The financial regulatory authority introduced eight incremental policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, supporting the capital market, assisting small and medium-sized enterprises, and promoting industrial transformation [7][8] - The report indicates that the capital market reform signals a focus on stabilizing the market and enhancing its internal stability through a combination of policies, including the establishment of a central reserve fund and optimization of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [7] Core Viewpoints - A package of financial policies has been introduced to stabilize the market and expectations, directly lowering housing costs and stimulating rigid demand [1][3] - The real estate fundamentals are weakening, making policy easing timely; the sales drop will accelerate the pace of policy easing, providing dual support for the market [3] - The report suggests focusing on distressed companies like Jindi Group and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity [4] Summary by Sections Financial Policies - The policy interest rates have been lowered by 0.1 percentage points, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in LPR [1] - The public housing fund loan rate has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year first home loan rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [1] Corporate Financing Environment - Structural monetary policy tools' rates have been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, including special structural tool rates from 1.75% to 1.5% and PSL rates from 2.25% to 2% [2] - This reduction will lower financing costs for real estate companies involved in affordable housing and urban renewal projects [2] Market Performance - During the May Day holiday, the real estate market showed a slight decline, with a 4% year-on-year drop in subscription area across 19 key cities [3] - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 16.9% year-on-year decrease in sales in April, indicating a worsening trend [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are reversing their difficulties, such as Jindi Group and New Town Holdings, and leading firms like China Merchants Shekou and Greentown China that are maintaining land acquisition intensity [4]