2025 年 10 月 19 日 有色金属 金银续创新高，近期重视稀土和铜 本周市场受中美贸易摩擦反复影响，市场避险情绪又起，有色板块市 场偏好稀土的战略属性、黄金的避险属性。周五盘后美国特朗普政府 又释放缓和信号，APEC 会议中美会晤在即，预计短期板块向下调整 空间或已不大，而工业金属、战略金属、贵金属等基本面依然向好， 持续看好稀土铜铝锡金银钴钽铀等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4234.9、50.4 美元/盎司,环比分别 +6.5%、+7.3%。市场对关税担忧持续，商务部表示美对华造船等行业 301 调查及限制措施严重损害中国相关产业利益。因技术故障及资产 市场波动，币安部分资产出现脱钩，这或将使得市场对加密货币信用 减弱，或吸引部分资金流入黄金市场。据世界黄金协会，2025 年 8 月 全球黄金储备增持 19 吨，环比显著上升，在央行和 etf 资金积极增 持驱动下，持续看好金价中长期上涨趋势。伦敦白银库存紧张，现货 紧张推升价格，白银短期价格波动加剧，持续看好中长期价格弹性。 建议关注：山东黄金、山金国际、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金等。 工业金属： 铜： 本周 LME 铜 ...

近日百利天恒在 2025 年欧洲肿瘤内科学会（ESMO）年会首次公布其 EGFR×HER3 双抗 ADC 药物 iza-bren 的海外多中心实体瘤研究数据。 从该研究数据来看，iza-bren (EGFR×HER3 双抗 ADC)治疗东西方人 群疗效和安全性数据高度一致，印证了 iza-bren 肿瘤杀伤效力具备 跨人群、跨瘤种的广谱特性。 本周建议关注标的： 考虑板块后续仍有多个催化值得期待，包括学术会议、多个 BD 兑 现、医保谈判、商保创新药目录，仍建议关注： 1）已获 MNC 认证未来海外放量确定性高的品种： PD-1 升级版产品：三生制药 GLP-1 资产：联邦制药 ADC 资产：科伦博泰、百利天恒 2）下一个可能海外授权 MNC 的重磅品种： PD-1 升级版产品：康方生物、信达生物 自免领域新突破：益方生物、中国抗体 创新靶点 ADC：复宏汉霖、石药集团 3）医保谈判&商保创新药目录有望获益品种： 有望受益于医保目录：恒瑞医药、康诺亚、迈威生物、智翔金泰、 海创药业等 本周新药行业重点分析： iza-bren 在 EGFR 突变 NSCLC 中展现出优异的疗效数据，在 10 例 2.5mg/k ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target to exceed the market by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - NVIDIA has launched its 800VDC power architecture aimed at AI data centers, marking a significant advancement in AI infrastructure, with plans to increase power capacity from 200kW to 1MW per cabinet [1]. - Oracle has expanded its partnership with AMD, planning to deploy 50,000 AI chips starting Q3 2026, enhancing AMD's competitive position against NVIDIA [2]. - Samsung's Q3 performance has significantly improved, with operating profit reaching 12.1 trillion KRW (approximately 605.21 billion RMB), a year-on-year increase of 31.81% driven by rising storage chip prices [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector has seen a relative return of -2.6% over the past month, 15.5% over three months, and 35.5% over the past year, while absolute returns were -3.5%, 27.4%, and 54.7% respectively [6]. - The electronic index PE stands at 67.51 times, with a 10-year PE percentile of 88.52% [9][35]. Company Developments - NVIDIA's new architecture utilizes GaN technology, improving system efficiency by 10-13% and power density by over 50% [1]. - AMD's collaboration with Oracle and OpenAI is expected to bolster its market share in AI chips, with AMD's shipments reaching approximately 100,000 units in Q2 2025 compared to NVIDIA's 1.5 million units [2]. - Samsung's sales in Q3 reached 86 trillion KRW, a historical high, benefiting from the AI-driven demand for memory chips [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sectors: for computing power, companies like Feirongda and Xingsen Technology; for storage, companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Bawei Storage; for domestic alternatives, companies like Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei Company; and for AI terminals, companies like Amlogic and Lixun Precision [10].

2025 年 10 月 19 日 环保及公用事业 算力需求爆发，重视 AIDC 储能 本周专题：算力需求爆发，重视 AIDC 储能 数据中心用电量快速增长。根据国际能源署数据，全球数据中心 2022 年消耗电力达 460 TWh，在乐观状态下，2026 年消耗量或达到 1000Twh。随着 AI 更大比例的应用，全球范围内数据中心耗电量需求 有望进一步增长，根据美国 Uptime Institute 预测，到 2025 年人 工智能业务在全球数据中心总用电量中的占比将从目前的 2%猛增至 10%。国内方面，数据中心综合能耗及其灵活性预测报告》指出，到 2030 年，我国数据中心用电负荷将达 1.05 亿千瓦，全国数据中心总 用电量约为 5257.6 亿千瓦时，用电量将占到全社会总用电量的 4.8%。 长期看，绿色算力是发展的终局情况。绿色算力指围绕着算力生产、 供给、运营、应用的全过程。对于能源测来说，算力需求与能源资源 分布存在时空分布不均的问题，算力基础设施探索基于多能互补的能 源供应和算能协同的空间布局成为必然趋势；对于需求侧来说，算力 是未来数字化社会的基础，承担着全链条节能降碳的基础角色。随着 数据 ...

本期要点：科技板块处于 A 浪调整末端？ 上周我们认为市场状态可能与 2020 年 8 月底 9 月初类似，尽管存在 下行风险，但整体幅度有限。从后续走势来看，市场基本延续震荡调 整格局，符合我们之前的判断；目前来看，该判断的主要结论依然成 立。 在板块结构方面，自 10 月首个交易日起，我们的定量复盘系统信号 持续指向低估值及红利板块。从拥挤度角度观察，TMT 板块的成交金 额占比继续回落，而周期类及金融地产板块的成交金额占比逐步提 升，这也印证了我们前期提出的"高低切换"逻辑正在市场上逐步演 绎。 近期科技板块一度出现明显回调，从波浪理论的角度分析，科创 50 的调整或可视为大四浪调整中的 A 浪阶段。尤其在上周五的调整中， 指数一度跌破 8 月底的高点，这也是我们将本轮调整定性为大四浪 调整的关键依据之一。正因为跌破了前期重要高点，叠加当前市场仍 存在高低切换的结构性隐忧，我们认为当前科创 50 指数或仍处于 A 浪调整过程中。不过，从温度计指标来看，科创 50 的高频温度计已 降至 20 以下，这可能意味着本轮调整正逐步接近尾声。 2025 年 10 月 19 日 科技板块处于 A 浪调整末端？ 金融 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company with a target price of 25.30 CNY for the next six months [5][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.16 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 748 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 4.92% and 18.51% respectively [2][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.29 billion CNY and a net profit of 222 million CNY, with year-on-year increases of 7.37% and 42.30% respectively, driven by stable order deliveries from core clients and stabilizing raw material prices [2][3]. - The company is building a leading global CDMO service platform, deeply serving major pharmaceutical companies like Novartis, with a significant number of projects in various clinical stages [3]. - The company has seen stable growth in sales of its specialty raw materials, with prices gradually stabilizing, indicating potential marginal improvements in its raw material business [4]. Financial Summary - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be 977 million CNY, 1.12 billion CNY, and 1.24 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 61.3%, 14.5%, and 10.4% respectively [5][11]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 1.10 CNY per share, with a PE ratio of 23 times [5][11]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 18.44 billion CNY, with a share price of 20.73 CNY as of October 15, 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 58.77 CNY for the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company is planning to raise up to 1 billion CNY through a private placement to enhance its AI capabilities, focusing on three main areas: the "Lingqing" industrial AI empowerment platform, the "Lingzhu" industrial software AI toolset, and the "Lingzhi" embodied intelligence AI training and promotion platform [2][4]. - The company has identified three urgent industrial demands that AI can address: the need for innovative technologies in new industrialization, the resolution of domestic industrial software challenges, and the application of embodied intelligence across multiple scenarios [3][4]. - The company has seen a significant increase in AI-related revenue, which is projected to rise from less than 1% of total revenue in 2023 to over 28% in the first half of 2025 [3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.82 billion CNY, 2.17 billion CNY, and 2.66 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 240 million CNY, 283 million CNY, and 325 million CNY for the same years [15][17]. - The company aims to achieve a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 60 times for 2025 [15]. Strategic Development - The company is committed to becoming a partner in the digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises and an enabler of AI applications in high-end equipment manufacturing [15]. - The funds raised will be allocated to enhance the company's existing business and technology products, reinforcing its "All IN AI" development strategy [4][11][12].

Export Performance - In September, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 8.3%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from August[4] - Exports to the US decreased by 27%, but this was a recovery of 6.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The overall export performance was supported by strong growth in categories such as clothing, furniture, and electromechanical products[4] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that export growth will remain high in Q4, driven by strong demand in the trade sector and a stable macroeconomic environment[5] - The weak performance of domestic demand may continue, limiting the upward trend in import growth despite a 7.4% year-on-year increase in imports in September[6] Tariff Impact - The recent tariff escalations are expected to have a limited impact on domestic asset prices, as market reactions have become more muted over time[10] - Historical patterns suggest that high tariffs are unlikely to be fully implemented, reducing the potential long-term impact on the economy[10] - Internal factors, such as fiscal policy and manufacturing sector trends, are likely to have a more significant influence on the A-share market than external tariff pressures[11] Market Sentiment - Following the tariff announcements, market sentiment initially declined, but investors have largely priced in the potential impacts, leading to a recovery in risk appetite[10] - The report suggests that the likelihood of a US economic recession is low, which may support continued strength in US equities despite tariff concerns[17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 65.79 over the next six months [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading AI+SaaS integrated marketing and sales service provider in China, leveraging AI technology to enhance its core products and expand its market presence [5][16]. - The company has established three growth curves: Marketing Cloud for SMBs, Sales Cloud for key accounts (KA), and an AI platform that drives commercialization [4][16]. - The marketing automation market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 15.8% from USD 394 million in 2024 to USD 952 million by 2030, driven by the digital transformation of SMBs [2][44]. - The sales automation market is also expanding, with the SFA SaaS market in China reaching USD 344 million in the first half of 2024, reflecting an 18.08% year-on-year growth [3][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has evolved from a marketing automation focus to an AI-driven SaaS platform, successfully listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2024 [16]. - It has a concentrated shareholding structure, ensuring strategic execution stability [21][27]. 2. First Growth Curve: Marketing Cloud for SMBs - The marketing automation sector is experiencing structural expansion, with SMBs driving industry growth [2][48]. - The company’s T Cloud product addresses the marketing needs of SMBs, providing a comprehensive automation platform [53]. 3. Second Growth Curve: Sales Cloud for KA - The sales cloud platform, centered around key accounts, is designed to enhance customer lifecycle management and data integration [3][42]. - The SFA SaaS market is witnessing a digital transformation, with significant growth potential for the company [3][42]. 4. Third Growth Curve: AI Platform - The AI Agent market is projected to reach CNY 4.42 trillion in 2024, with the company launching its Tforce marketing model and Agentforce AI platform to capitalize on this trend [4][55]. - The company aims to enhance its AI product offerings, which are expected to become a significant growth driver [4][55]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 2.37 billion, CNY 2.93 billion, and CNY 3.62 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2025 [9][11]. - The company’s AI+SaaS business is projected to maintain a CAGR of 24% from 2021 to 2024, becoming a core pillar of its revenue [29][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the construction industry [5]. Core Insights - The construction industry shows a month-on-month improvement in activity, with the overall PMI output index at 50.6%, indicating continued growth above the critical point [1][18]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from a traditional peak season in Q4, with project construction accelerating as weather conditions improve, leading to steady growth in infrastructure investment throughout the year [1][18]. - The construction decoration sector has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 17.43%, ranking 24th among 31 SW primary industries [2][19]. - The report highlights the potential for low-valuation, high-dividend stocks in the construction sector, suggesting that these may offer better value amid rising risk aversion due to escalating trade tensions [2][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The construction industry's business activity index rose to 49.3% in September, with new orders increasing to 42.2%, indicating a slight recovery in demand [1][18]. - The government is expected to enhance policy support for housing, which may lead to a rebound in the real estate market, with an estimated 50 billion square meters of new residential sales during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][20]. Market Performance - The construction decoration sector saw a weekly increase of 2.84%, outperforming major indices such as the Shenzhen Composite Index and the CSI 300 [2][21]. - The overall PE ratio for the construction decoration sector is at 12.06 times, which is lower than the broader market indices, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2][25]. Key Stocks to Watch - Recommended stocks include Jianghe Group (dividend yield of 7.27%, PE of 13.34), Anhui Construction (dividend yield of 5.78%, PE of 6.24), and Sichuan Road and Bridge (dividend yield of 5.07%, PE of 10.32) among others [2][19][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-valuation construction central enterprises and companies with strong international business prospects [12][13].