本周上证指数跌 0.25%，沪深 300 跌 0.25%，恒生指数涨 0.42%。小盘股涨幅较 大，本周全 A 日均交易额 13716 亿，环比上周有所上升。在此，我们强调：6 月大 盘指数依然是在 407 黄金坑兑现后转入"震荡市"，临近震荡区间上沿就有回落压 力。中期来看，对于后续市场的三类预判：类比 2020 年（核心是由意外事件导致 中美欧政策步入同频共振政策周期，结构是以大盘成长为代表的核心资产占优）， 类比 2024 年（存在明确二次探底形成双底，结构是高股息为核心的杠铃策略）， 类比 2019 年（核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上呈现消费+科 技"跷跷板"双轮动）。目前看"年初 AI 新科技 DeepSeek1.0"+"5 月军工科技 Deepseek2.0 时刻"+"创新药 Deepseek3.0 时刻"使得市场逐渐意识到"新胜于旧" 的定价思路，那么 A 股真有点像 2019 年了。 近期发生的一系列重大事件对于市场的影响值得探讨，总体而言虽然外部环境波谲 云诡，但对于 A 股资产定价并未造成明确"二次探底"风险。事实上，需明确：国内 5 月经济数据虽然显示内需孱弱，但在 ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 调整或将以时间换空间的方式展开 本期要点：调整或将以时间换空间的方式展开 上周提到，我们虽然维持市场震荡偏强的判断，但将密切关注在前高 附近市场是否展现出有效突破的迹象；而如果一旦确认突破失败，那 么后续或将迎来真正的调整。实际上，我们的全天候定量择时模型上 周下半周发出了两次风险提示信号，未来市场或仍将承压。 整体来看，市场仍然处于一个大的箱体震荡格局。大盘已围绕该平台 震荡了近 3 个季度，而该震荡箱体的中枢位置或者说平均成本或在 3300-3350 左右。正如前期提到过的，市场当前整体处于大级别均线 系统的多头排列状态，如无意外因素出现，在多头排列过程中的震荡 往往可以看成是震荡蓄势的过程。因此，正常来看，市场整体的下行 空间或有限的。 但是，考虑到本轮调整出现在日线级别已经上行了三波之后，恰好处 于震荡中枢的上沿，而且出现了日线级别的顶背离以及日线 TD9 计 数，所以从纯技术的角度看应该看成是针对于 4 月初以来这一整波 上行趋势的调整。如果考虑常见的 0.382 时间回调比例特征，那么潜 在的调整时间或在 3 周左右。 也就是说，本轮调整或将以时间换空间的方式来展 ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 生物医药Ⅱ 新药周观点：创新药 4 月进院数据更 新，多个新纳入医保创新药快速进院中 本周新药行情回顾： 2025 年 6 月 9 日-2025 年 6 月 13 日，新药板块涨幅前 5 企业：北海 康成-B（118.12%），欧康维视生物-B（28.59%），君圣泰医药-B （23.75%），药明巨诺-B（23.63%），歌礼制药-B（23.40%）；跌幅 前 5 企业：三生国健（-7.41%），诺思兰德（-7.14%），宜明昂科- B（-6.10%），华领医药-B（-4.38%），永泰生物-B（-3.48%）。 本周新药行业重点分析： 近日国家医保局更新了已纳入医保目录创新药截止 2025 年 4 月底的 进院数据，多个 2025 年新纳入医保国产创新药产品正在快速进院中， 部分药物进院速度较快，其中： 从增长速度来看，对比 25 年 3 月底，截止 25 年 4 月底入院数据增长 较快的药物主要有云顶新耀布地奈德肠溶胶囊、康方生物卡度尼利单 抗与依沃西单抗等。 从入院总体数量来看，截止 25 年 4 月底入院数据超 200 家的药物主 要有云顶新耀布地奈德肠溶胶囊、百济 ...

2025 年 06 月 15 日 计算机 海外量子科技产业为何大涨？ 芯片：海外巨头积极布局，技术竞争初现端倪 2 月 20 日，微软发布量子计算芯片 Majorana 1，采用拓扑量子比特， 容错性和稳定性较强，向全面容错量子计算机迈进。2 月 28 日，亚 马逊发布首款量子芯片 Ocelot，可将纠错开销降低多达 90%。5 月 20 日，D-Wave Quantum 正式宣布其第六代量子计算机 Advantage2™ 系统全面上市。这款新一代量子退火计算机不仅在性能、能效和扩展 性方面实现显著跃升，更标志着量子计算从实验室迈向企业级应用的 关键转折。6 月 10 日，IBM 发布了最新的 IBM Quantum 创新路线图。 到2029年，IBM将推出大规模容错量子计算机IBM Quantum Starling， 能够在 200 个逻辑量子比特上运行包含 1 亿个量子门操作的量子电 路，其运算能力将是当前量子计算机的 20000 倍。 算法：面向实用场景的量子计算优越性得到验证 3 月 12 日，D-Wave 在《Science》发表论文，可在 20 分钟内算完传 统超算需耗时近 100 万年才可完成的 ...

2025 年 06 月 12 日 消费者服务 泰国政府推动博彩法立法，预计进一步 拉动当地旅游消费 泰国财政部 6 月 4 日召开新闻发布会（链接），通报娱乐综合体 （EC）项目最新进展。 泰国将采用类似新加坡、阿联酋及日本的博彩模式，即仅发放少量牌 照，聚焦大型综合开发项目，而非多牌照小项目，政府将严格监管（严 格限制线上博彩）。项目选址将由政府决定/提供，大概率落地旅游目 的地以实现周边消费溢出效应最大化。目前正在起草《综合娱乐场所 事业法》草案，将于 7 月列入众议院会议审议，预计将在现任政府任 内 2027 年完成。 本国居民准入通过负面清单管控： 该项目主要客流来源仍为外国游客，旨在拉动本国旅游消费经济。与 新加坡、韩国等地类似，对于本国居民进入并非完全与外国人一致， 将有一定限制。而目前预计本国居民将以负面清单管控方式限制进入 门槛。 目前泰国政府已在接触四大国际综合度假村运营商： 目前泰国政府已与四大国际综合度假村运营商接触，其中永利及美高 梅有较大兴趣对泰国博彩进行相关投资。 对当地旅游消费具有重要拉动意义： 该项目将吸引私营部门投资至少 1000 亿泰铢，预计建设期间 GDP 增 长 0.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the pharmaceutical industry [8]. Core Insights - The overall retail sales of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in pharmacies showed a year-on-year decline in Q1 2025, indicating pressure on the market [3][19]. - The report highlights stable rankings among major products in various therapeutic areas despite the overall sales decline [18]. Summary by Sections Overall Situation - The retail sales of TCM in pharmacies increased from 143.9 billion yuan in 2017 to 168 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.23%. However, Q1 2025 sales were 41.2 billion yuan, down 7.67% year-on-year, attributed to regulatory pressures and consumer downgrade [3][19]. Therapeutic Areas - **Cold and Heat Relief**: Sales decreased by 6.90% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with sales reaching 7.3 billion yuan, influenced by lower respiratory disease cases compared to the previous year [4][22]. - **Nutritional and Health Supplements**: Sales slightly declined by 1.01% year-on-year in Q1 2025, totaling 5.8 billion yuan, impacted by consumer downgrade and high sales in the previous year [5][25]. - **Cardiovascular Health**: Sales showed a slight decline of 2.98% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with sales at 10.4 billion yuan, reflecting stable market demand [6][28]. - **Musculoskeletal Health**: Sales increased by 0.68% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 3.7 billion yuan, indicating long-term growth potential due to aging demographics [14][31]. - **Gastrointestinal Health**: Sales grew by 7.13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, totaling 16 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery in demand [34]. - **Cough and Phlegm Relief**: Sales dropped significantly by 26.80% year-on-year in Q1 2025, amounting to 4.8 billion yuan, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [15][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Viewpoints - The retail pharmacy industry is experiencing a decline in sales at physical stores, with a year-on-year decrease noted in May 2025. However, the structure of listed pharmacy stores is gradually optimizing, which is expected to lead to stable growth in performance [3][13] - In May 2025, the average daily sales per store in physical pharmacies were 2,769.8 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.09%. The average order volume per store increased by 4.57%, while the average transaction value decreased by 7.21% [4][15] - The retail pharmacy sector has seen a concentration increase, with the top six listed pharmacies holding a market share of approximately 17.94%. Despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.77% for the overall retail pharmacy market in 2024, these pharmacies are expected to achieve growth due to steady store expansion [20][21] Summary by Sections Macro Dimension - The market size of domestic physical pharmacies in 2024 was 611.9 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.77% due to factors such as declining transaction values and reduced product offerings [14] - In May 2025, the average daily sales per store in physical pharmacies were 2,769.8 yuan, which is a 3.09% year-on-year decline. The average order volume per store increased by 4.57%, while the average transaction value decreased by 7.21% [15] Micro Dimension - The structure of listed pharmacy stores is gradually optimizing, with several companies maintaining a high proportion of new store openings. In 2024, the proportion of new stores for major pharmacies was as follows: Yifeng Pharmacy (31%), Dazhenglin (25%), Laobaixing (31%), Yixintang (15%), Jianzhijia (38%), and Shuyupingmin (34%) [5][25] - The retail pharmacy industry is witnessing a further increase in concentration, with the top six listed pharmacies expected to achieve better-than-industry growth due to their steady expansion [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing operational pressure due to declining real estate demand and local fiscal constraints, with a projected revenue decline of 3.81% year-on-year for 2024 and a net profit decline of 14.59% [2][16] - Non-traditional construction sectors, such as chemical engineering and international engineering, are showing resilience and growth, with chemical engineering revenue increasing by 4.43% year-on-year in 2024 [2][25] - The eight major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the construction sector have seen a slight decrease in revenue and profit, but their overseas business is performing well, with a 10.05% increase in overseas revenue in 2024 [3][41] Summary by Sections Revenue and Performance - The construction industry is under pressure, with a total revenue of 8.71 trillion yuan in 2024, down 3.81% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.83 trillion yuan, down 14.59% [2][19] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 6.17% year-on-year, attributed to seasonal factors and delayed project commencement [2][17] - The eight major SOEs accounted for approximately 80.31% of the construction sector's revenue, with a total revenue of about 7 trillion yuan in 2024, down 3.55% year-on-year [3][33] Profitability - The overall gross margin for the construction industry remained stable at 10.92% in 2024, with improvements noted in international engineering and chemical engineering sectors [4][42] - The net profit margin decreased to 2.62% in 2024, primarily due to increased expense ratios and impairment losses [4][19] - Return on equity (ROE) for the industry fell to 7.29%, with international engineering leading at 10.78% [7][19] Cash Flow and Debt - The operating cash flow for the construction industry decreased by 31.60% year-on-year in 2024, totaling 1.12 trillion yuan [8][19] - The debt ratio for the industry increased to 76.84% in 2024, indicating rising financial leverage [19][42] Investment Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to be positive, with significant government investment planned, including a deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan and new special bonds totaling 4.4 trillion yuan [24][25] - The concentration of the industry is increasing, with major SOEs expected to enhance their competitive edge [9][24] - The overseas business of construction SOEs is anticipated to continue growing, with a focus on international projects along the Belt and Road Initiative [10][41]

Export and Trade - In May, exports decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 3.3 percentage points from April, indicating weakened trade momentum[4] - Exports to the US fell sharply from -21.0% in April to -34.5% in May, while exports to ASEAN and India also declined significantly[5] - Exports to the EU increased from 8.3% in April to 12.0% in May, suggesting a growing reliance on the European market amid tariff impacts[5] Inflation and Price Pressure - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in May showed a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, continuing a downward trend[8] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat at -0.1% year-on-year in May, indicating persistent weak demand and price pressures[11] - Industrial product prices are experiencing deeper declines due to insufficient terminal demand and strong manufacturing supply[14] Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth rate may experience a slight slowdown in Q2, influenced by diminishing export momentum and increasing price pressures[14] - The risk appetite in the equity market is rising, supported by potential tariff reductions in US-China negotiations and stable domestic economic performance[17] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation, reflect a strong intention to stabilize liquidity in the financial system[18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a slowdown in sales recovery, with urban renewal policies gaining momentum. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced over 20 cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, will receive more than 20 billion yuan in central financial support for urban renewal projects in the coming years [1] - The report suggests that the sales growth of new and second-hand homes in core cities has further slowed down, necessitating stronger real estate control policies to stabilize the market [1] - It recommends focusing on distressed real estate companies that may experience a turnaround, such as China Vanke and New Town Holdings, as well as leading companies maintaining land acquisition intensity like China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments [1] Sales Review (5.31-6.6) - A total of 13,000 units were sold across 32 monitored cities, a week-on-week decrease of 37.3%. Cumulatively, 349,000 units have been sold in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [2][13] - In first-tier cities, 3,744 units were sold, down 41.5% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 101,000 units sold in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [2][13] - Second-tier cities saw 7,820 units sold, down 35% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 207,000 units sold in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% [2][13] - Third-tier cities recorded 1,256 units sold, down 37.6% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 42,000 units sold in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [2][13] Land Supply (5.26-6.1) - The planned construction area for residential land supply across 100 cities is 9.14 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 89.1 million square meters in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [3][21] - The average floor price for land supply across 100 cities is 7,119 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 6,092 yuan per square meter, showing a week-on-week decrease of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [3][21] Land Transaction (5.26-6.1) - The planned construction area for residential land transactions across 100 cities is 4.26 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 73.97 million square meters sold in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [4][46] - The average transaction floor price for residential land across 100 cities is 5,455 yuan per square meter, down 16.6% week-on-week but up 5.1% year-on-year, with an overall premium rate of 5.5% [4][46]