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电子行业2024年中期策略报告:科技硬件迎来估值重塑,端侧AI推动消费新周期
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-14 09:00
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for several companies including Lixun Precision, Weir Shares, and Micron Innovation, while Saintbond is rated as "Hold" [7][8]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share technology hardware companies are undergoing a valuation reshaping, driven by a recovery in smartphone demand and the implementation of AI at the edge, which is expected to boost consumption [2][12][22]. - The semiconductor demand is at a recovery node, with storage chips leading the sales growth, particularly benefiting from the recovery in mobile phone inventory [12][20]. - The report highlights two main investment lines: Apple Intelligence driving the Apple supply chain and Tesla's autonomous driving entering a commercial phase [13][23]. Summary by Sections Overall View - A-share technology companies are expected to see a valuation reshaping due to a recovery in smartphone demand and inventory levels returning to a healthy state [12][17]. - The semiconductor market is showing signs of recovery, with storage chips being a significant driver of growth [20][21]. AI and Edge Technology - Apple is focusing on edge AI, which is expected to enhance consumer demand and create a competitive advantage through its proprietary technology [13][25][27]. - Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving technology are anticipated to accelerate commercial applications, particularly with the introduction of Robotaxi [13][16]. Supply Side: Price Increase Expectations - The report anticipates price increases in storage chips due to improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in DDR5 and NAND markets [14][15]. - The demand for high-end CIS chips is expected to rise, driven by flagship smartphone launches, leading to potential price increases [15][16]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on companies within the Apple and Tesla supply chains, including Lixun Precision, Weir Shares, and Micron Innovation, among others [7][8].
20240712每日复盘:指数涨跌互现,市场震荡整理
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-13 13:02
Market Performance - On July 12, major Asian stock indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.59% to 18,293.38 points, while the Nikkei 225 fell by 2.45% to 41,190.68 points[3] - The A-share market exhibited varied performance across styles, with cyclical, growth, and stable styles declining, while the financial style saw a significant increase[2][11] Sector Analysis - Among the 30 primary sectors, real estate (up 2.47%), banking (up 2.15%), and home appliances (up 0.87%) performed well, while coal (-1.98%), non-ferrous metals (-1.79%), and computers (-1.50%) lagged behind[11][49] - Concept sectors such as photovoltaic inverters and urban village renovation experienced substantial gains, while state-owned coal and near-term new stocks faced significant declines[11] Capital Flow - On July 12, the main capital saw a net outflow of 13.596 billion yuan, with large orders contributing to a net outflow of 8.453 billion yuan[13][23] - Northbound capital recorded a slight net inflow of 2.734 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Connect seeing a net inflow of 3.301 billion yuan[14] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 12, with a winning rate of 1.80%[7] Economic Indicators - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 13.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%[27] - The total value of China's goods trade reached 21.17 trillion yuan in the first half, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase[42]
贝斯特:点评报告:新兴业务持续推进,发展空间不断拓展
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-12 08:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Insights - The company has a clear three-tier industrial layout, with the first tier focusing on core components for turbochargers and precision parts, providing a stable foundation for growth. The second tier targets core components for electric, hydrogen fuel, and natural gas vehicles, while the third tier encompasses linear rolling components, including products for industrial machines and humanoid robots, indicating significant growth potential [9][10]. - The company reported a 21.65% year-on-year increase in sales of turbocharger core components, totaling 31.73 million units, with related revenue reaching 1.014 billion yuan, a 15.67% increase. Sales of new energy components also grew by 22.20%, achieving revenue of 151 million yuan, up 64.75% [10]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections are as follows: 1,097.28 million yuan in 2022, 1,343.25 million yuan in 2023, and expected to reach 1,670.98 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.42% and 24.40% respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 228.87 million yuan in 2022, 263.51 million yuan in 2023, and 334.14 million yuan in 2024, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16.35% and 26.81% [4]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 31.32 in 2022 to 21.45 in 2024, indicating improving valuation metrics [4][10].
市场复盘:指数高开高走,市场放量反弹
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-12 07:30
Market Performance - Major indices in the A-share market showed significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.99%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.06% [16][25] - Market turnover reached 789.86 billion yuan, an increase of 109.96 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [16][25] - 4,987 stocks rose while 313 stocks fell, indicating a broad-based market rally [16][25] Market Style and Sector Performance - Growth, cyclical, and consumer sectors outperformed, with growth styles significantly outperforming value styles [2][70] - Among the 30 CITIC primary industries, consumer services (+4.12%), non-ferrous metals (+3.77%), and comprehensive sectors (+3.30%) led the gains, while banking (-0.56%) was the only declining sector [2][70] - Concept sectors such as lithium mining, lithium battery cathode materials, and CRO saw substantial increases, while central SOE banks and selected banking sectors experienced minor declines [2][70] Fund Flow and ETF Performance - Main funds recorded a net inflow of 6.13 billion yuan, with large orders contributing 4.07 billion yuan and ultra-large orders 2.06 billion yuan [30] - Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF saw a significant increase in trading volume, with its turnover rising by 1.68 billion yuan compared to the previous day [44] - CSI 1000 ETF attracted the most funds, with a net inflow of 798 million yuan on July 10 [44] Global Market Performance - European markets rose across the board, with Germany's DAX up 0.94%, the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.66%, and France's CAC 40 up 0.86% [48] - US markets also gained, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.09%, the S&P 500 up 1.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.18% [53] - In Asia, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.06%, the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 2.67%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 increased by 0.94% [37] Commodity and Currency Performance - COMEX gold rose 0.42% to $2,377.90 per ounce, while silver increased 0.08% to $31.08 per ounce [51] - ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.93% to $85.45 per barrel [51] - The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 105.00, while the USD/CNY exchange rate rose 0.05% to 7.28 [51]
三花智控:公司点评报告:两大业务同向增长,战新业务持续突破
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-12 03:30
[Table_Main] 公司研究|工业|资本货物 证券研究报告 三花智控(002050)公司点评报告 2024 年 07 月 12 日 业绩如期兑现,北美整体转盈 两大业务同向增长,战新业务持续突破 ——三花智控(002050)公司点评报告 [Table_Summary] 事件: 公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告,业绩符合我们预期。公司预计 2024 半 年度实现营业收入为 131.55-144.08 亿元,同比增加 5%–15%;公司预计 2024 半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 14.64-16.04 亿元, 同 比增加 5%–15%。 新能源车与制冷空调业务同步增长,产能出海持续加速 公司披露报告期内业绩预增的主要原因系:在新能源车热管理方面,公司作 为全球新能源车热管理的领先企业,运用标杆客户示范效应,持续获得订 单,实现了业绩的增长。在出海方面,公司正在积极推进墨西哥、波兰新能 源车热管理生产基地建设,加速新能源车产能出海;在制冷空调电器零部件 方面,公司作为行业的龙头企业,产业龙头优势凸显,核心产品市场份额稳 步提升,带来业绩增长。在出海方面,公司已完成越南工厂二期的建厂并实 现产线 ...
国元证券每日复盘
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-12 03:02
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.99%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.06% on July 11, 2024[2] - Market turnover reached 7898.64 billion yuan, an increase of 1099.57 billion yuan from the previous trading day[2] - 4987 stocks rose while 313 stocks fell across the market[2] Sector and Style Performance - Consumer services (4.12%), non-ferrous metals (3.77%), and comprehensive sectors (3.30%) were the top performers[3] - Banking sector (-0.56%) was the only declining sector among 30 CITIC primary industries[3] - Growth style significantly outperformed value style, with non-fund heavy stocks rising more than fund heavy stocks[3] Capital Flows - Main funds saw a net inflow of 6.129 billion yuan, with large orders contributing 4.066 billion yuan and super large orders 2.063 billion yuan[3] - Northbound funds recorded a net inflow of 3.046 billion yuan, while southbound funds saw a reduced net inflow of 474 million HKD[31] ETF Performance - Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300ETF saw a significant increase in turnover, rising by 1.675 billion yuan from the previous day[36] - CSI 1000ETF attracted the most capital inflow on July 10, with 798 million yuan[36] Global Market Trends - European markets rose with Germany's DAX up 0.94%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.66%, and France's CAC40 up 0.86%[3] - US markets gained with Dow Jones up 1.09%, S&P 500 up 1.02%, and Nasdaq up 1.18%[3] - Asian markets showed mixed performance with Hang Seng Index up 2.06% and Nikkei 225 up 0.94%, while India's SENSEX30 fell 0.03%[3]
市场复盘:指数再度回调,市场午后走弱
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-11 08:30
国家统计局:6 月份,消费市场供应总体充足,全国 CPI 环比季节性下降,同比 继续上涨,其中,食品价格下降 2.1%,猪肉价格上涨 18.1%,涨幅比上月扩大 13.5 个百分点;受国际大宗商品价格波动及国内部分工业品市场需求不足等因 素影响,全国 PPI 环比有所下降,同比降幅继续收。 商务部就欧盟依据《外国补贴条例》对中国企业调查中采取的相关做法进行贸易 投资壁垒调查。欧盟依据《外国补贴条例》及其实施细则对中国企业开展的初步 审查、深度调查以及突袭检查等调查中采取的相关做法。申请人提出申请时主要 涉及铁路机车、光伏、风电、安检设备等产品。根据《对外贸易壁垒调查规则》 的规定,商务部可以采用问卷、听证会、实地调查等方式向利害关系方了解情况, 进行调查。 调查应在 2025 年 1 月 10 日前结束,特殊情况下可延长至 2025 年 4 月 10 日。 欧洲央行监管委员会委员麦克考尔:央行警示影子银行业风险不断上升。 资料来源:Wind A股市场主要指数表现 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 7 / 11 500 400 300 200 () : 100 0 -100 -200 | --- | --- | ...
深南电路:公司24H1业绩预告点评:AI服务器&汽车需求持续放量,ABF产能突破
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-10 10:30
%[Table_Main] 公司研究|信息技术|技术硬件与设备 证券研究报告 深南电路(002916)公司点评报告 2024 年 07 月 10 日 [Table_Title] AI 服务器&汽车需求持续放量,ABF 产能 突破 ——公司 24H1 业绩预告点评 当前价: 109.75 元 [Table_Base 基本数据 ] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 公司公布 2024 年半年度业绩预告,预计上半年归母净利润 9.1 亿-10 亿元,同比增长 92%-111%,对应 EPS 1.77-1.95 元/股。公司上半年订单 大幅增长,PCB 产能稼动率回升,产品结构优化带动利润率同步提升。我 们预计公司主要受益于 AI 服务器需求的放量,以及通用服务器迭代升级, 产品迎来量价齐升。 公司 PCB 下游重点布局数据中心、汽车电子领域。通信方面,公司对 通信网络各个环节实现了全覆盖,当前通用服务器迭代升级,AI 服务器和 交换机放量,公司受益于单机价值提升和高速 PCB 需求的增长。汽车领域, 公司的南通三期工厂爬坡顺利,为订单导入提供产能支撑。 载板领域,公司将充分受益于云计算、人工智能、智能驾驶等 ...
市场复盘:指数集体反弹,午后放量上涨
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-10 06:30
[Table_Title] 每日复盘 证券研究报告 20240709 市场复盘:指数集体反弹,午后放量上涨 报告要点: 2024 年 7 月 9 日三大指数集体反弹,市场午后放量上涨。上证指数上涨 1.26%,深证成指上涨 1.68%,创业板指上涨 1.43%。市场成交额 7269.87 亿 元,较上一交易日大幅增加 1427.80 亿元。全市场 4271 只个股上涨,917 只 个股下跌。 风格上看,各市场风格普遍上涨。成长、周期、金融和稳定涨幅较大,消 费风格微涨;非基金重仓股指数涨幅大于基金重仓股指数;成长风格表现显 著优于价值,中小盘表现显著优于大盘。 分行业看,30 个中信一级行业中 27 个行业上涨;表现相对靠前的是: 电子(4.36 %),通信(3.87 %),汽车(3.16 %);表现相对靠后的是:农林 牧渔(-2.06 %),建材(-0.74 %),综合(-0.13 %)。概念板块方面,多数概 念板块上涨,智能音箱、高速铜连接、无线充电等大幅上涨;鸡产业、猪产业、 生物育种等小幅走低。 资金筹码方面,主力资金首次大幅净流入,7 月 9 日净流入 75.47 亿元, 为 7 天来主力资金首次净 ...
兆易创新:公司2024年中期业绩预告点评:周期拐点带动24H1业绩修复
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-10 06:30
[Table_Main] 公司研究|信息技术|半导体与半导体生产设备 证券研究报告 兆易创新(603986)公司点评报告 2024 年 07 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 周期拐点带动 24H1 业绩修复 ——公司 2024 年中期业绩预告点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月 9 日,公司发布 2024 年中期业绩预告,预计 24H1 营收实现 36.09 亿元(YoY+21.69%),预计归母净利达到 5.18 亿元(YoY+54.18%)。从二 季度来看,公司预计营收实现 19.82 亿元(YoY+21.97%),预计公司归母净 利实现 3.13 亿元(YoY+68.28%)。 公司存货水位持续下滑,相较 23Q1库存最高点,24Q1 已下降 10.87%, DOI 从 237.59 天下降至 177.44 天,随着 Q2 存货水位进一步下降,产品 价格上升趋势明显,毛利率开始修复,24Q2 净利实现较大增幅。 TWS 耳机、AI phone、AI PC 和服务器等场景提振 Nor Flash 需求, 叠加中国台湾厂商在毛利率压力下涨价可能性较高,公司作为全球第二大 Nor ...