[Table_Main] 行业研究|信息技术|半导体与半导体生产设备 证券研究报告 半导体与半导体生产设 行业数据 备行业周报、月报 2025 年 09 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 中国对美模拟芯片启动反倾销调查，SK 海力士开 始量产 HBM4 ——行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 本周（2025.9.8-2025.9.14）市场回顾 1）海外 AI 芯片指数本周上涨 6.58%，只有 MPS 有下跌的情况，其 余成分股均表现出上涨。2）国内 AI 芯片指数本周上涨 11.8%。各成 分股均表现出不同程度的上涨，其中海光信息、兆易创新、寒武纪以 及翱捷科技涨幅均超过 10%。3）英伟达映射指数本周上涨 11.2%， 其中景旺电子上涨 26.09%，胜宏科技、沪电股份、沃尔核材以及工业 富联涨幅均超过 10%。长芯博创本周下跌 3.81%，神宇股份下跌幅度 较小，为 0.44%。4）服务器 ODM 指数本周上涨 7.8%，各成分股均 表现出上涨趋势。5）存储芯片指数本周上涨 17.9%，其中香农芯创上 涨 71.74%。兆易创新与江波龙涨幅接近 20%，分别为 19.21%与 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [7]. Core Viewpoints - The computer industry index increased by 3.37% during the week of September 8-12, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.52%, and the Shenzhen Component Index, which rose by 2.65% [12][22]. - Oracle reported a significant increase in unfulfilled contractual obligations, reaching $455 billion, a year-on-year increase of 359%. The company signed contracts worth "several billion dollars" with three different clients during the quarter [5][22]. - The demand for computing power is expected to continue growing, driven by the development of AI applications, which will benefit related listed companies [5][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Index Performance - The computer industry index rose by 3.37% during the week, with notable gains in sub-sectors: Computer Equipment (+6.12%), IT Services II (+2.48%), and Software Development (+2.47%) [12][14]. 2. Major Events - Oracle's quarterly report highlighted a partnership with OpenAI to develop a data center with a capacity of 4.5 GW, indicating strong future revenue potential [5][22]. - Significant technological advancements were reported, including NVIDIA's new GPU designed for long-context inference, which is expected to enhance performance in software development and video generation tasks [17]. 3. Key Announcements - Four-dimensional Tsinghua announced plans for an investment in PhiGent Robotics, aiming to enhance their autonomous driving capabilities [3][21]. - Haiguang Information's stock incentive plan aims for substantial revenue growth targets over the next three years, with ambitious growth rates of 55%, 125%, and 200% [3][21]. 4. Investment Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring large clients' business developments and contract fulfillment schedules, as large orders significantly impact revenue [5][22]. - The expected revenue from Oracle's cloud infrastructure is projected to reach $18 billion in fiscal 2026, a nearly 77% increase from the previous year [22].

Market Performance - On September 12, 2025, the three major indices collectively declined: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.12%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.43%, and ChiNext Index down 1.09%[2] - Market turnover reached 25,483.13 billion CNY, an increase of 837.23 billion CNY from the previous trading day[2] - A total of 1,926 stocks rose while 3,373 stocks fell across the market[2] Sector and Style Analysis - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, the top performers were non-ferrous metals (up 1.96%), real estate (up 1.43%), and steel (up 1.34%); the worst performers included telecommunications (down 2.07%), banking (down 1.54%), and non-bank financials (down 1.48%)[20] - In terms of investment style, growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with small-cap growth leading the way[20] Capital Flow - On September 12, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 536.40 billion CNY, with large orders contributing to a net outflow of 231.38 billion CNY and small orders showing a net inflow of 543.27 billion CNY[26] - Major ETFs saw a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous day, with notable declines in the turnover of several ETFs, including a drop of 18.85 billion CNY for the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF[30] Global Market Trends - On September 12, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.16% and the Nikkei 225 Index up 0.89%[33] - European indices also saw gains on September 11, 2025, with the DAX Index up 0.30% and the FTSE 100 Index up 0.78%[34]

Market Performance - On September 11, 2025, the ChiNext Index rose by 5.15%, reaching a new high for the year, driven by a surge in computing hardware and chip stocks[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.65%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 3.36%[2] - The total market turnover was 24,645.90 billion CNY, an increase of 4,606.39 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[2] Sector and Style Analysis - All 30 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index experienced gains, with the top performers being Communication (7.40%), Electronics (5.78%), and Computers (4.25%)[21] - The market style performance ranked as follows: Growth > Finance > Cyclical > Stable > Consumption[21] Fund Flow - On September 11, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 34.518 billion CNY, with large orders seeing a net inflow of 44.709 billion CNY[25] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 189.89 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 80.73 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 109.16 billion HKD[27] ETF Trading Activity - Major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw significant increases in trading volume, with changes of +26.38 billion CNY and +17.42 billion CNY respectively[29] - The total trading volume for the mentioned ETFs was 40.51 billion CNY for the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and 45.04 billion CNY for the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF[29] Global Market Overview - On September 11, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.43% and the Nikkei 225 up 1.22%[33] - European indices also displayed varied performance, with the German DAX down 0.36% and the French CAC40 up 0.15%[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, achieving an operating income of 1.045 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 45.03 million yuan, up 6.09% year-on-year [1][4]. - The AI business has seen significant growth, with revenue increasing by 125.91% year-on-year, reflecting successful implementation and customer acquisition strategies [3]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI technology into its products, enhancing operational efficiency and customer value [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 1.045 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 58.32%, an increase of approximately 0.88 percentage points year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, reaching -45.52 million yuan [1][4]. Business Segments - The R&D design segment generated 57 million yuan, growing by 11.05% year-on-year. The digital management segment achieved 571 million yuan, up 4.32%. The production control segment reported 138 million yuan, a 7.36% increase. The AIoT segment earned 274 million yuan, growing by 3.51% [2]. AI Business Development - The company launched an AI-powered PLM product, which has been adopted by nearly 100 clients, contributing to a significant increase in average transaction value. The multi-agent collaboration platform has been successfully implemented in various industries, establishing benchmark cases [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.536 billion, 2.794 billion, and 3.048 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit forecasts are set at 188.84 million, 236.92 million, and 274.51 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.70, 0.87, and 1.01 yuan per share [4][7].

Market Performance - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.27%[3] - The total market turnover was 20,039.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,481.28 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - A total of 2,442 stocks rose while 2,769 stocks fell across the market[3] Sector and Style Analysis - The top-performing sectors included Communication (3.31%), Media (1.87%), and Electronics (1.52%)[21] - The worst-performing sectors were Power Equipment & New Energy (-1.23%), Nonferrous Metals (-0.91%), and Basic Chemicals (-0.82%)[21] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with large-cap growth leading small-cap growth[21] Fund Flow Insights - On September 10, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 56.20 billion yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 118.26 billion yuan and small orders experiencing a net inflow of 206.52 billion yuan[25] - Major ETFs like the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw significant decreases in turnover, with changes of -11.96 billion yuan and -3.23 billion yuan respectively[29] Global Market Overview - On September 10, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.01% and the Nikkei 225 Index up 0.87%[32] - European indices showed mixed results, with the DAX Index down 0.37% and the FTSE 100 Index up 0.23%[33] - In the US, major indices also rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.43%[33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) market, highlighting its leadership in the diabetes and weight loss sectors with potential for further indication development [2]. Core Insights - The development trends for GLP-1RAs include multi-targeting, long-acting formulations, and oral administration, which enhance patient compliance and convenience compared to traditional injectable forms [4][107]. - GLP-1RAs demonstrate significant efficacy in metabolic diseases, with a broad scope for expanding indications, including diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular protection [7][21][27]. - The global diabetes market is projected to reach nearly $80 billion by 2024, with China's market exceeding 70 billion yuan, establishing a strong foundation for GLP-1RAs [7][42]. - The obesity market is expanding rapidly, with overweight and obese populations expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2025, representing 46% of the global adult population, thus creating substantial market opportunities for weight loss medications [7][82]. Summary by Sections 1. Efficacy of GLP-1RAs in Diabetes and Obesity - GLP-1RAs show excellent efficacy across multiple indications, including diabetes and obesity, with mechanisms that enhance insulin secretion and suppress appetite [10][21]. - The global market for GLP-1RAs is rapidly growing, with sales expected to reach nearly $50 billion by 2024, driven by products like semaglutide and tirzepatide [39][65]. 2. Diabetes: Revolutionizing Treatment with GLP-1RAs - The diabetes drug market is vast, with a significant increase in the number of diabetes patients, which supports the growth of GLP-1RAs as a new treatment option [42][47]. - GLP-1RAs are becoming the preferred choice for diabetes management due to their dual benefits of glycemic control and weight loss [48][55]. 3. Weight Loss: GLP-1RAs' Promising Efficacy and Market Potential - The weight loss drug market is expanding, with GLP-1RAs showing superior efficacy compared to traditional weight loss medications, making them a focal point for pharmaceutical development [87][93]. - Three GLP-1RAs have received FDA approval for weight loss, with semaglutide leading in sales and effectiveness [93][95]. 4. Development Trends: Multi-targeting, Long-acting, and Oral Formulations - The future of GLP-1RAs is leaning towards oral formulations, which are expected to improve patient adherence and convenience [107][108]. - The introduction of dual-target and multi-target GLP-1RAs is anticipated to enhance treatment outcomes and market competitiveness [68][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is developing positively, with the engineering machinery sector showing steady growth. The report highlights the significant potential in the low-altitude economy, particularly in Anhui province, where over 570 enterprises have formed a robust industrial chain [3][4]. - The engineering machinery sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trend, with excavator sales in August 2025 reaching 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Domestic sales accounted for 7,685 units, up 14.8%, while exports reached 8,838 units, increasing by 11.1% [4]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - From August 31 to September 5, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.83%. The ChiNext Index rose by 2.35%. The Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index dropped by 1.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.56 percentage points, ranking 21st among 31 Shenwan primary industries [12][18]. Key Sector Tracking - The low-altitude economy is projected to exceed 60 billion yuan in scale by 2025, with significant developments showcased at the 2025 Low Altitude Economy Development Conference held in Wuhu, Anhui [3]. - The engineering machinery sector's performance is bolstered by strong competitive advantages among domestic leading enterprises, with a year-to-date sales increase of 17.2% for excavators [4]. Investment Recommendations - For the low-altitude economy, recommended companies include Deep City Transportation, Sujiao Science and Technology, and WanFeng Aowei. In the machinery equipment sector, focus on Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG Machinery, and Anhui Heli [5]. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks significant economic indicators, including manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment trends, which show positive growth in the manufacturing sector [38][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the humanoid robot industry [7] Core Insights - The humanoid robot concept index decreased by 1.45% from August 31 to September 5, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points. Year-to-date, the humanoid robot index has increased by 67.32%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 50.57 percentage points [11][17] - Major developments include the establishment of the Zhejiang Humanoid Robot Industry Technology Alliance, which aims to promote deep integration of industry, academia, and research, accelerating technological breakthroughs and application scenarios [20] - Yushun Technology plans to submit an IPO application in Q4 2025, while UBTECH has secured a 250 million yuan contract for humanoid robot products and solutions [3][21] - Investment highlights include UBTECH receiving a strategic financing credit line of 1 billion USD from Infini Capital, aimed at expanding its market presence in the Middle East [22] Weekly Market Review - The humanoid robot index saw a weekly decline of 1.45%, with the largest weekly gain from Yiwei Lithium Energy (+36.39%) and the largest loss from Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (-23.76%) [11][17] - The humanoid robot index has shown a year-to-date increase of 67.32%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [11] Weekly Hotspot Review Policy Developments - The Zhejiang Humanoid Robot Industry Technology Alliance was officially established, aiming to create a leading area for innovation and development in the humanoid robot industry [20] Product and Technology Iteration - Yushun Technology announced plans to submit an IPO application in Q4 2025, with a significant portion of its sales coming from quadruped and humanoid robots [20] - UBTECH has secured a 250 million yuan contract for its humanoid robot Walker S2, which features an autonomous hot-swappable battery system [21] Investment and Financing - UBTECH has signed a strategic partnership agreement with Infini Capital for a total of 1 billion USD in financing, which includes plans to establish a super factory and R&D center in the Middle East [22] Key Company Announcements - InnoSilicon has launched the world's first gallium nitride robot, with expected shipments exceeding 10,000 units this year [4] - Yiwei Lithium Energy's "Longquan No. 2" all-solid-state battery has successfully rolled off the production line, targeting humanoid robots and other high-end applications [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the telecommunications industry, indicating a positive outlook based on the sustained high demand in the sector [3][6]. Core Insights - The telecommunications sector is experiencing a high level of activity driven by advancements in AI, 5.5G, and satellite communications, which are expected to continue propelling industry growth [3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in AI-related business, with Broadcom's AI revenue reaching $5.2 billion in Q3 FY2025, marking a 63% year-over-year growth, and anticipates further growth in the upcoming quarters [4]. - The low Earth orbit satellite communication sector is also gaining traction, with improved industry policies suggesting a more organized development phase for China's satellite industry [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The overall market saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.83% during the week of September 1-7, 2025. The telecommunications sector specifically experienced a 2.68% decline [3][12]. - Among the sub-sectors, telecommunications network equipment and devices had the smallest decline at 0.42%, while telecommunications terminals and accessories faced the largest drop at 8.54% [15][16]. Stock Performance - In terms of individual stock performance, the top gainers in the telecommunications sector included Zhongji Xuchuang with a 14.67% increase, followed by *ST Tianyu at 13.07%, and Dongtu Technology at 10.46% [17][18]. Industry News - Significant developments include a report from Sullivan indicating a 363% increase in daily calls for large models in the AI market, reflecting a surge in demand and resource consumption [19][20]. - Juniper Research forecasts that global revenue from cellular IoT connections will exceed $30 billion by 2030, a 74% increase from $18 billion in 2025, driven by rising automation and operational efficiency demands [21][22]. - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-circumvention measures against U.S. G.654.C optical fibers, indicating ongoing regulatory actions in the telecommunications space [23][24]. Future Directions - The report suggests focusing on the computing power supply chain and low Earth orbit satellite communications as key areas for investment, emphasizing the importance of advancements in AI and satellite technology [4].