[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 中国飞鹤(6186.HK)公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 31 日 [Table_Title]H1 主动去库存，盈利短期承压 ——中国飞鹤 2025 年中报点评 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 事件 公司公告2025年中报。2025年上半年，公司实现收入 91.51亿元（-9.36%）， 归母净利 10.00 亿元（-46.66%）。公司拟派发中期股息，每股拟派发 0.1209 港元。 主动去库存，婴配粉收入下滑 1）主动去库存，婴配粉收入下滑。2025H1，公司乳制品及营养补充剂产品、 原料奶收入分别为 91.43、0.08 亿元，同比-9.08%、-79.82%，乳制品及营 养补充剂产品收入下降主要由于公司主动降低婴配粉的渠道库存，以及向 消费者提供生育补贴。 2）主动去库存，内地收入下滑。2025H1，公司在中国内地、美国、加拿大 的收入分别为 90.41、0.91、0.18 亿元，同比-9.47%、+11.94%、-30.69%。 3）线上渠道占比进一步提升。2025H1，公司乳制品线下渠道收入占比 71. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.498 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 12.84% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105 million yuan, down 56.52% [1]. - The high-end liquor segment faced significant pressure in Q2 2025, with revenues declining by 36.95% year-on-year, while the average selling price for products also saw a notable drop [2][4]. - Despite challenges in traditional consumption scenarios, new channel revenues experienced substantial growth, with a 126.12% increase in H1 2025 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 79.26%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [4]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 7.04%, down 7.07 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by declining gross margins and rising expense ratios [4]. - The company expects net profits of 1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.45%, with projected P/E ratios of 23, 21, and 20 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7].

Market Performance - On August 29, 2025, the three major indices rose collectively, with the ChiNext Index leading with an increase of 2.23%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.99%[3] - The total market turnover was 28,301.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,706.93 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] Sector and Style Analysis - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, the top performers were: Electric Power Equipment and New Energy (2.77%), Nonferrous Metals (2.50%), and Food and Beverage (2.26%)[20] - The worst performers included: Transportation (-1.50%), Home Appliances (-1.33%), and Computers (-1.00%)[20] - Fund-heavy stocks outperformed the CSI All Share Index[20] Capital Flow - On August 29, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 694.70 billion yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 403.91 billion yuan[24] - Small orders continued to see a net inflow of 689.67 billion yuan[24] - Southbound funds had a net inflow of 120.46 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing a net inflow of 13.42 billion HKD[26] ETF Trading - Most ETFs, including the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, saw a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous trading day[28] - The trading volumes for major ETFs were: 38.60 billion yuan for the SSE 50 ETF, 62.08 billion yuan for the CSI 300 ETF, and 14.66 billion yuan for the Jiashi CSI 300 ETF[28] Global Market Overview - On August 29, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices closed mixed, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.32% and the Nikkei 225 down 0.26%[5] - In the US, major indices also saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.16% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.32%[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 61.933 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.37%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.200 billion yuan, down 4.39%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 28.915 billion yuan, an increase of 5.77%, with a net profit of 2.326 billion yuan, up 44.65%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.387 billion yuan, up 49.48% [1]. - The decline in liquid milk revenue has narrowed, while the revenue growth of milk powder, dairy products, and ice cream products has led the growth [1]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 36.05%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 34.19%, up 0.61 percentage points [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, ice cream products, and other products was 36.126 billion, 16.578 billion, 8.229 billion, and 386 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.06%, +14.26%, +12.39%, and -5.05%. In Q2 2025, the revenue for each product was -0.85%, +9.65%, +37.96%, and -3.05% [1]. - The company’s distribution and direct sales channels showed steady revenue growth, with H1 revenue from distributors and direct sales at 59.357 billion and 1.961 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 3.31% and 17.34% [1]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth was steady in North China, South China, and Central China, with all regions achieving positive growth in Q2 2025. H1 revenue for these regions was 17.140 billion, 15.080 billion, and 11.362 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +2.04%, +2.54%, and +3.31% [1]. Profitability and Forecast - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 11.63%, down 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced investment income. However, the net profit margin for Q2 2025 improved to 8.05%, up 2.16 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins and reduced sales and financial expense ratios [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.250 billion, 12.012 billion, and 12.663 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.09%, 6.77%, and 5.42% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - In H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 41.567 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.95% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.046 billion yuan, down 16.37% [1]. - The decline in liquid milk revenue was primarily due to inventory destocking in the ambient milk segment, while fresh milk and yogurt sales showed double-digit growth [2]. - The company's gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 41.7% due to falling raw milk prices, although net profit margin decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 4.92% due to reduced other income and increased losses from joint ventures [3]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 revenue breakdown: liquid milk 32.192 billion yuan (-11.22%), ice cream 3.879 billion yuan (+15.04%), milk powder 1.676 billion yuan (+2.47%), cheese 2.374 billion yuan (+12.28%), and other businesses 1.447 billion yuan (+12.39%) [2]. - Operating profit for H1 2025 was 3.538 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 8.5%, up 1.5 percentage points [3]. - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 4.279 billion yuan, 5.143 billion yuan, and 5.599 billion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 3.02 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 500 million yuan, up 17.4% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 450 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.1% [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 29.5%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 16.8%, up 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The thin-film optical business has become the core driver of the company's performance, with significant contributions expected from non-mobile products from the Vietnam plant and an increase in market share from major clients in the mobile sector [2]. - The company has seen a 79% year-on-year increase in revenue from automotive optical products, benefiting from the rapid penetration of AR-HUD technology in the automotive sector [2]. - In the AR/VR field, the company has established a comprehensive layout in display systems, 3D modules, and core optical components, positioning itself to benefit from the industrialization of major clients [3]. - The company aims to expand its overseas manufacturing scale while focusing on the domestic market, aspiring to become a leading global provider of AR optical display solutions [3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.25 billion yuan and 1.53 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The financial forecast indicates a revenue growth of 16.01% in 2023, 23.67% in 2024, and 17.68% in 2025, with net profit growth of 4.15% in 2023 and 71.57% in 2024 [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.90 yuan in 2025 and 1.10 yuan in 2026 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 44.92 in 2023 to 14.78 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 41 CNY per share for 2026, based on a 25x valuation of the estimated EPS [3][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.579 billion CNY for H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.64%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 384 million CNY, up 26.89% YoY, with gross and net profit margins at 22.72% and 14.38%, respectively [1][7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new manufacturing bases in Thailand and Heshan, which are expected to alleviate capacity constraints and support future growth [3][10]. - The automotive product matrix is being enhanced, with successful integration into the supply chains of major automotive companies, and the company is also making strides in the AI sector by entering the supply chains of Nvidia and AMD [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.579 billion CNY, a YoY increase of 7.64%, and a net profit of 384 million CNY, reflecting a YoY growth of 26.89%. The gross margin was 22.72%, and the net margin was 14.38% [1][7]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 1.361 billion CNY, with a YoY growth of 4.55% and a QoQ increase of 11.83%. The net profit for the quarter was 204 million CNY, up 5.23% YoY and 13.59% QoQ [1][7]. Automotive Sector - The company has successfully launched high-speed 3rd and 4th generation HDI PCBs and has developed various millimeter-wave radar PCBs. It has secured contracts with leading automotive manufacturers such as Geely and Ideal [2][8]. - The company is also benefiting from the North American EV subsidy reduction and the upcoming model releases from major clients, which are expected to enhance revenue elasticity [2][8]. AI Sector - The company has made significant progress in the AI server market, achieving mass production of various PCBs required for AI applications. It has entered the supply chains of Nvidia and AMD through OEM partnerships [9]. - The company is also involved in projects related to humanoid robots and low-altitude flying vehicles, with successful collaborations and product deliveries [9]. Capacity Expansion - The company plans to build a new factory in Thailand with an initial capacity of 1 million square meters per year, expected to commence operations by the end of 2025. Additionally, a new manufacturing base in Heshan is planned with a capacity of 660,000 square meters per year, projected to start production in mid-2026 [3][10]. Valuation and Forecast - The company is forecasted to achieve net profits of 862 million CNY and 1.167 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30x and 22x [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [4]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit showed steady growth in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 1.662 billion RMB, up 16.47% year-on-year, and a net profit of 777 million RMB, up 8.27% year-on-year. The company also announced a cash dividend of 1.50 RMB per share, boosting investor confidence [2][4]. - The game "Supernatural Action Team" exceeded market expectations after its launch, achieving over 1 million concurrent players in July and maintaining a top 10 position in the iOS sales chart. The mature product line is performing steadily, with significant user growth in the "Journey" IP segment [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.662 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 777 million RMB, reflecting an 8.27% increase. The second quarter saw a revenue of 938 million RMB, up 28.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 429 million RMB, up 17.49% year-on-year [2]. - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) to be 1.09 RMB in 2025, 1.58 RMB in 2026, and 1.74 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28x, 19x, and 17x respectively [4][6]. - The financial forecast indicates a revenue of 4.761 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 62.91%, and a net profit of 2.116 billion RMB, reflecting a 48.49% increase [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving a revenue of 454 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.22%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 67 million yuan, up 144.18% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 63 million yuan, reflecting a 163.55% increase [1][2]. - The company is advancing its R&D strategy focused on a "shared technology platform + multiple products + multiple fields," transitioning from a single advantage to a collaborative development of "champions" in various segments [2]. - The revenue from solder paste printing equipment reached 292 million yuan in H1 2025, marking a 53.56% increase, while the revenue from dispensing equipment was 60 million yuan, up 26.31% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues and net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.105 billion yuan, 1.343 billion yuan, and 1.571 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 154 million yuan, 193 million yuan, and 234 million yuan [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.44 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 2.20 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 48, 39, and 32 times [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.113 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.182 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 81.68%, a slight decrease of 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 37.99%, down 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The sales expense ratio improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year to 34.01%, while the management expense ratio increased by 0.07 percentage points to 2.65% [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company's brand "可复美" generated revenue of 2.54 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [2] - The "可丽金" brand achieved revenue of 500 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 26.9% year-on-year [2] Channel Performance - Direct sales channels contributed 2.325 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 74.7% of total revenue, with DTC channels generating 1.816 billion yuan [3] - The company has expanded its offline presence, covering approximately 1,700 public hospitals and 3,000 private hospitals and clinics, along with over 130,000 pharmacy stores [3] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.505 billion yuan, 3.102 billion yuan, and 3.732 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 17, and 14 [4][6]