[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/造纸轻工 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 23 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 造纸轻工 海通综指 -36.93% -28.64% -20.36% -12.07% -3.78% 4.51% 2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 资料来源:海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《中大排摩托车出口维持高景气,春风动 力产品矩阵持续扩充》2024.07.15 《电动自行车行业规范陆续出台,行业集 中度有望进一步提升》2024.07.02 《造纸板块利润修复,重视高股息板块》 2024.06.25 分析师:郭庆龙 Email:gql13820@haitong.com 证书:S0850521050003 分析师:高翩然 Email:gpr14257@haitong.com 证书:S0850522030002 龙头企业出海加速,二轮车东南亚市场大有可 为 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 全球摩托车需求总量较为稳定,2014 年 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/食品 证券研究报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 资料来源:海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《1-5 月白酒行业收入同比+11.8%》 2024.07.15 《5 月四川白酒产量同比-0.7%》 2024.07.08 《酒饮茶制造业 5 月营收同比+7.6%》 2024.07.01 分析师:颜慧菁 Tel:(021)23183952 Email:yhj12866@haitong.com 证书:S0850520020001 分析师:程碧升 Tel:(021)23185685 Email:cbs10969@haitong.com 证书:S0850520100001 分析师:张宇轩 Email:zyx11631@haitong.com 证书:S0850520050001 联系人:苗欣 Email:mx15565@haitong.com 联系人:张嘉颖 Tel:(021)23185613 Email:zjy14705@haitong.com 行业周报 2024 年 ...

证券研究报告 (优于大市,维持) 《锂电板块2024Q2持仓分析》 马天一(电力设备及新能源联席首席分析师) SAC号码: S0850523030004 吴 杰(公用事业&电力设备及新能源首席分析师) SAC号码:S0850515120001 联系人:孔淑媛 2024年7月23日 概要 24Q2电力设备(申万一级行业)下跌11.73%,区间行情持续走弱,电力设备行业全部基金重仓市 值合计2408.32亿元,环比下降10.40%,占全部基金重仓持股的9.99%,环比-0.66pct,占比在全 行业中排名第四,整体延续2022年二季度以来的下降趋势,仓位处于2020年以来35.20%分位。 24Q2末电力设备行业全部基金重仓持股超配4.58%,环比-2.12pct,超配幅度收窄。 我们选取锂电板块54家上市公司,分为9个子板块进行分析,24Q2锂电板块整体上涨0.66%,电池 上涨5.37%,其他锂电中游环节不同程度下跌,其中隔膜跌幅最大,下跌20.78%。24Q2末锂电板 块基金重仓持股按照持股市值,前十名分别为宁德时代、比亚迪、亿纬锂能、科达利、天赐材料、 璞泰来、华友钴业、格林美、新宙邦、欣旺达。 建议关注 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][9] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of offshore and overseas markets, with a significant increase in large megawatt model sales contributing to revenue growth [4][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 14.939 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.21%, and a net profit of 2.007 billion yuan, up 21.78% year-on-year [4][6] - The global wind power market is projected to grow, with an expected CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028, and the company is well-positioned to capture market share [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue was 14.939 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.21% and a net profit of 2.007 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.78% increase [6][9] - The company forecasts revenues of 17.286 billion yuan in 2024 and 19.770 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding net profits of 2.280 billion yuan and 2.649 billion yuan [6][11] Product Segmentation - The revenue breakdown for 2023 shows that wind turbine sales accounted for 80.47% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 15.45% [4] - The share of large megawatt models (5.XMW and above) in revenue increased to 58.76%, up 23.14 percentage points year-on-year, driven by industry trends towards larger and smarter wind turbines [4][5] Market Outlook - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total of 15.89 GW of orders as of the end of 2023, and is expected to benefit from the growing offshore wind market [5][9] - The global wind power market is anticipated to add 182 GW of new capacity by 2028, with a significant portion of this growth occurring in offshore wind, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27.5% [4][5] Valuation - The company is assigned a valuation range of 26.04 to 33.48 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 14-18x for 2024 [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the education sector and suggests focusing on "undervalued + cyclical" opportunities [6][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust growth in domestic and outbound tourism, driven by policy incentives and increased consumer demand [5][6]. - The transportation sector is expected to see a 3.6% year-on-year increase in passenger numbers during the summer travel season [4]. - The hotel market shows stable supply growth, although average room prices have slightly decreased [6]. Summary by Sections Transportation - During the summer travel period, from July 1 to 15, 2024, the national railway sent 211 million passengers, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, with an average of 14.03 million passengers daily [4]. - The forecast for railway passenger numbers from July 1 to August 31 is 860 million, with a daily average of 13.87 million, reflecting a 3.61% year-on-year growth [4]. - Road travel bookings for summer 2024 have surged by 44% compared to 2023 and nearly 303% compared to 2019 [4]. - The civil aviation sector has seen daily flight numbers increase by 4.8% to 5.9% compared to the previous year, with passenger transport expected to reach 133 million during the summer [4]. Tourism - OTA platforms report a significant increase in bookings, with long-distance travel orders accounting for over 70% of total bookings [5]. - Popular long-distance travel destinations include Northeast and Southwest regions, with orders increasing by 40% and 25% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - The inbound tourism market has doubled year-on-year, with significant growth in orders from countries with visa exemptions [5]. Hotel Industry - The national hotel occupancy rate was 65.54% during the first two weeks of the summer travel season, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year [6]. - The average hotel price was 216.31 yuan, down 4.85% year-on-year, while the number of hotels increased by 9.36% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the education sector, which is expected to benefit from reduced policy concerns and improved competitive dynamics [6]. - It also suggests looking for "undervalued + cyclical" stocks, anticipating steady growth in domestic tourism and a strong rebound in outbound travel [6]. - Recommended stocks include China Duty Free, Tongcheng Travel, Songcheng Performance, and Tehai International, with additional attention to other companies like Zongxin Travel and Shoulu Hotel [6].

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 2024 年 07 月 22 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 信息服务 海通综指 -37.14% -28.52% -19.90% -11.28% -2.66% 5.96% 2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 资料来源:海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《计算机行业跟踪周报 348 期:科技体制 改革有望持续深化,长春 127 亿发展车路 云》2024.07.20 《计算机行业 2024Q2 持仓分析,机构持 仓水平减少至历史低位 2.1%》 2024.07.21 《"车路云"产业观察(4): 高速公路车 路云示范项目进入评审阶段,如祺出行上 市》2024.07.18 分析师:杨林 Tel:(021)23183969 Email:yl11036@haitong.com 证书:S0850517080008 分析师:杨蒙 Tel:(021)23185700 Email:ym13254@haitong.co ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][48]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong sales momentum, with 2023 sales exceeding 1.68 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and 2024 sales in the first five months reaching nearly 790,000 units, a 45% increase [3][16]. - The company is continuously iterating its technology platforms, investing over 20 billion RMB in the SEA architecture to create a leading global smart electric vehicle technology [20][22]. - The company is beginning to realize its smart technology outcomes, with the launch of the Starry AI model and the Starry Smart Driving system, enhancing its competitive edge in the automotive industry [33][38]. Sales Growth Momentum - In 2023, the company achieved sales of over 1.68 million units, with a 17.7% year-on-year growth, and 48.7 million units of new energy vehicles, accounting for 28.9% of total sales [3][16]. - The Zeekr brand saw a remarkable 65% increase in sales in 2023, with 11.9 million units sold, and a 112% increase in the first five months of 2024 [7]. - The Lynk & Co brand achieved over 220,000 units in 2023, a 22% increase, with 10.2 million units sold in the first five months of 2024, marking a 55% increase [10]. - The Galaxy series under the Geely brand sold 83,500 units in 2023, with 65,000 units sold in the first five months of 2024 [13]. - The company exported 274,000 units in 2023, a 38% increase, and 162,000 units in the first five months of 2024, a 69% increase [16]. Technology Platform Iteration - The SEA architecture is designed to break traditional automotive boundaries, focusing on user experience and integrating hardware, systems, and ecosystems [20]. - The Haohan-M architecture, with an 80% space utilization rate, redefines the spatial efficiency of electric vehicles [22][23]. - The e-CMA intelligent architecture integrates advanced safety features and self-developed software capabilities [27]. - The GEA global intelligent new energy architecture supports various energy forms, achieving comprehensive electrification [28]. Smart Technology Outcomes - The Starry Intelligent Computing Center enhances R&D efficiency by 20%, with a total cloud computing power of 10.2 billion operations per second as of April 2024 [33]. - The Starry AI model is the first full-stack self-developed AI model in the automotive industry, achieving a 4+ rating in the official evaluation by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology [35]. - The AI digital chassis enables advanced driving features, including autonomous drifting and crab mode [37]. - The Zeekr Haohan Smart Driving system received an L3 autonomous driving test license in June 2024, successfully passing various tests [38]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain strong sales growth, with projected net profits of 7.35 billion RMB, 11.62 billion RMB, and 15.68 billion RMB for 2024-2026 [43]. - The report estimates an EPS of 0.73 RMB, 1.15 RMB, and 1.56 RMB for the same period, with a target price range of 11.77 to 14.12 HKD based on a 15-18x PE ratio for 2024 [43][44].

证券研究报告 (优于大市,维持) 海通通信一周谈:中国电信IPTV机顶盒开标, 移动、电信公布六月份运营数据 余伟民(通信行业分析师) SAC号码:S0850517090006 于一铭(通信行业分析师) SAC号码:S0850523060002 2024年7月22日 网络赋能、AI驱动,天地一体构筑数字经济底座 1、网络赋能——通信是信息传递、万物互联的基础。其中:1)运营商:关注中国移动、中国电信、中国联通等 2)设备商:关注紫光股份、锐捷网络、烽火通信、中兴通讯、迪普科技、星网锐捷、菲菱科思等。3)光器件— —关注中际旭创、天孚通信、华工科技、光迅科技、新易盛、光库科技、源杰科技、长光华芯等;4)电芯片—— 关注翱捷科技-U、盛科通信-U、中瓷电子、紫光国微等。5)PCB——关注沪电股份、深南电路等。6)光纤缆& 海缆——关注:亨通光电、中天科技等;7)物联网:关注广和通、移远通信、拓邦股份、四方光电等。8)卫星 及其他:关注海格通信、上海瀚讯、华测导航、海能达、亿联网络、凌云光、奥普特、杰普特等。 2、AI驱动——AI的大模型训练及应用提升通信能力需求。1)GPU:英伟达带动下,新的AI芯片计算能力不断 ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/农业 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 22 日 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 农业 海通综指 -22.60% -17.18% -11.75% -6.32% -0.90% 4.53% 2023/5 2023/8 2023/11 2024/2 资料来源:海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_Rep 《Q3 供给缺口或将逐步兑现,猪价有望 ortInfo] 继续上行》2024.07.14 《猪价再度走强,推荐生猪养殖板块》 2024.07.08 《二育在猪周期中扮演了什么角色》 2024.07.05 分析师:李淼 Tel:(010)58067998 Email:lm10779@haitong.com 证书:S0850517120001 分析师:冯鹤 Tel:(021)23185702 Email:fh15342@haitong.com 证书:S0850523040003 分析师:巩健 Tel:(021)23185702 Email:gj15051@haitong.com 证书:S0850522110002 联系人:蔡子慕 Tel:(021) ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/建筑工程 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 22 日 重点推荐中国化学、柏诚股份 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 一周随笔:重点推荐中国化学、柏诚股份。 中国化学:基本面扎实,助力尼龙 66 产业自主可控。大国博弈进一步发酵,公 司作为科技创新型企业提估值可期。近期公司完成自有技术丁二烯法制成己二 胺首次出口,标志着其工艺获得境外市场充分认可。公司无 PPP 业务,2023 年公司类现金资产(货币资金+交易性金融资产)减去有息债务后为 311 亿元, 截至 2024/7/22,公司总市值 455 亿元,类现金资产大于有息债务对公司市值 形成有利支撑。公司 22 年、23 年、24H1 新签订单均保持 10%以上增长。我 们认为,短期来看,公司中报无忧,若三季度己二腈项目负荷顺利提升,有望 突破 1 倍 PB;长期来看,新任董事长原先任职中石化镇海炼化董事长,有望为 公司带来实业业务新增长。预计 24-25 年归母净利润分别为 61、70 亿元。风险 提示:回款风险,政策风险,经济下滑风险。 柏诚股份:直接受益半导体自主可控带来的行业扩容。我们 ...