[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 02 月 11 日 [Table_ReportIndustryName] 通信 [Table_ReportName] 证券研究报告 —行业定期报告 [Table_IndustryRank] 投资评级：强于大市 相对指数表现 [Table_Chart] -0.68 -0.35 -0.01 0.32 0.66 0.99 2024/2 2024/5 2024/8 2024/11 通信 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：Wind [Table_ReportAuthors] 高新技术组 分析师：肖立戎（分析师） 联系方式：0871-63577941 邮箱地址：xiaolr@hongtastock.com 资格证书：S1200521020001 相关研究 [Table_ReportList] TMT 行业月报：交换机市场需求加速； DeepSeek-V3 大模型开源加速 AI 向低成本 发展 2025.01.10 TMT 行业月报：手机直连卫星技术开始普 及，谷子经济释放年轻人的消费潜力 2024.12.05 TMT 行业月报：市场对科技领域关注度提 高，三季度通信行业业绩 ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 02 月 07 日 [Table_ReportIndustryName] 食品饮料 [Table_ReportName] 证券研究报告 —行业定期报告 [Table_IndustryRank 投资评级：强于大市] 相对指数表现 [Table_Chart] -0.74 -0.44 -0.13 0.17 0.47 0.77 2024/2 2024/5 2024/8 2024/11 2025/2 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind [Table_ReportAuthors] 消费组 分析师：于快（分析师） 联系方式：0871-63577941 邮箱地址：yukuai@hongtastock.com 资格证书：S1200522010001 相关研究 [Table_ReportList] 食品饮料行业月报：汾酒召开年度经销商大 会，中炬无偿受让厨邦少数股权 2024.12.20 消费行业月报：三季度茅台业绩稳健，零食 相对景气，天猫双十一阶段性美妆榜单出炉 2024.10.31 消费行业月报：白酒中报分化，美妆推新备 战双十一 2024.09.26 消费行业月报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the power new energy industry is Neutral, indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between a 10% gain and a 10% loss relative to the market over the next six months [1][60]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in investment for both grid and power construction, with grid investment reaching 608.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.32%, and power construction investment reaching 1,167.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [4][11]. - The total electricity consumption in 2024 is projected to be 9.85 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a growth rate of 6.8% [15]. - The inverter export value for 2024 is reported at 58.862 billion yuan, showing a decline of 15.55% year-on-year [17]. - The wind power sector saw a new installed capacity of 51.75 GW from January to November 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 25.03% [23]. - The photovoltaic sector experienced a new installed capacity of 206.3 GW during the same period, with a year-on-year increase of 25.88% [39]. Summary by Sections 1. Power and Grid Information Equipment - The grid construction investment for 2024 is projected to exceed 600 billion yuan for the first time, indicating a high level of industry activity [11]. - The power construction investment is also expected to surpass 1 trillion yuan, with significant growth in nuclear, thermal, and hydropower sectors [11]. 2. Wind Power - The cumulative installed capacity of wind power reached 492.18 GW, accounting for 15.21% of the total power generation capacity [23]. - The average utilization hours for wind power decreased to 1,931 hours, a reduction of 98 hours compared to the previous year [26]. 3. Photovoltaic - The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power reached 818.33 GW, representing 25.30% of the total power generation capacity [39]. - The average utilization rate for photovoltaic power was 97.0%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.1 percentage points [44]. 4. Individual Stock Performance - Most listed companies in the power equipment sector reported earnings growth, with some exceptions due to raw material price declines [48]. - The public utility sector showed significant performance variation, heavily influenced by sales volume and electricity prices [48]. 5. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set a target for the national renewable energy utilization rate to not be less than 90% from 2025 to 2027 [52][53].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Outperform the market [1] Core Insights - In 2024, China's automotive industry continued to develop with strong resilience and vitality, supported by various national policies. The production and sales of automobiles reached 31.43 million units and 31.28 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.5% and 3.7% [3][9] - The domestic sales of automobiles in China were 25.58 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while exports reached 5.86 million units, growing by 19.3% [4][18] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market saw significant growth, with cumulative sales in China reaching 12.87 million units in 2024, up 35.5% year-on-year, and a penetration rate of 40.9% [5][36] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Market - In 2024, the production and sales of passenger cars were 27.56 million units and 27.47 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5.8% and 5.2% [3][15] - Commercial vehicle production and sales were 3.87 million units and 3.80 million units, respectively, showing a decline of 3.9% and 5.8% year-on-year due to weak demand [3][16] - December 2024 saw domestic passenger car sales of 2.69 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [21] 2. New Energy Vehicle Market - Global NEV sales reached 1.84 million units in November 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 32% [5][28] - In December 2024, China's NEV sales were 1.60 million units, up 34% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 12.87 million units for the year [32][36] - The penetration rate of NEVs in China reached 45.74% in December 2024 [36] 3. Lithium Battery Market - In 2024, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 1,096.8 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 41% [5][44] - The cumulative sales of power batteries reached 791.3 GWh, growing by 28.4% year-on-year, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for 66.4% of the total [5][49] - In December 2024, the production of power and other batteries was 124.5 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.2% [44][49]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2024, China's GDP growth was 5.4%, exceeding expectations, with an annual growth rate of 5%[1] - The service sector's GDP grew by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting improved market expectations and recovery in consumption[10] - Infrastructure investment showed significant improvement, with December growth rates of 6.3% and 11.0% for new and old standards respectively[12] Consumption and Investment - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumption, with retail sales of home appliances increasing by 39.3%[13] - Exports grew by 10.7% in December and 5.9% for the entire year, driving a 9.2% increase in manufacturing investment[15] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.9% in December, outpacing overall industrial value-added growth of 6.2%[18] Challenges and Risks - There is a divergence between actual and nominal values, with a negative GDP deflator of -0.73%, leading to weaker perceived gains for microeconomic entities[19] - Industrial profits declined by 4.7% year-on-year from January to November 2024, indicating a need for improved conversion of manufacturing investment into profits[22] - External trade uncertainties, particularly from tariff measures, pose risks to global trade growth and require strategies to mitigate export volatility[23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the communication industry is "Outperform the Market" [1]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw a significant increase of 4.39% in December 2024, while the overall market (CSI 300 Index) rose by only 0.47%. This indicates strong performance relative to other sectors [3][9]. - The demand for high-speed switches is accelerating due to the rapid development of AI technologies, with the data center switch market revenue growing by 18.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024. The revenue for 200/400 Gb switches surged by 126.3% year-on-year [5][25]. - The DeepSeek-V3 model, launched in December 2024, demonstrates significant advancements in AI capabilities while drastically reducing training costs, which could lead to a paradigm shift in AI model development [34][39]. Summary by Sections Communication Industry - In November 2024, the domestic telecom business volume was 141.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.85%. However, the cumulative telecom business revenue for the first 11 months reached 1,594.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [14]. - The average mobile internet access traffic per user reached 19.11 GB/month in November 2024, up 5.9% year-on-year, with total mobile internet traffic for the first 11 months amounting to 3,066 billion GB, a 12% increase [14][15]. - As of November 2024, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.191 million, accounting for 33.2% of all mobile base stations, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from the previous year [16]. Ethernet Switch Market - The Ethernet switch market in China reached approximately 68.5 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%. The market is expected to continue growing due to increasing demand for efficient and reliable network connections driven by cloud computing and big data [18][21]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue from data center Ethernet switches grew by 18.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the revenue of 200/400 Gb switches [25][26]. - The global Ethernet switch market in Q3 2024 was valued at 10.8 billion USD, with Cisco holding a 37% market share, followed by Arista Networks at 13.6% and Huawei at 9.7% [26][31]. Computer Industry - In November 2024, the domestic software industry revenue was 1,228 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while profits in the software sector decreased by 8.84% to 146.5 billion yuan [28]. - The revenue from cloud computing and big data services reached 135.3 billion yuan in November, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.68%, while revenue from e-commerce platform technology services fell by 7.27% to 110.9 billion yuan [32]. DeepSeek-V3 Model - The DeepSeek-V3 model, with 671 billion parameters, has shown superior performance compared to other open-source models and is competitive with leading closed-source models like GPT-4o. Its training cost was significantly lower, at 5.576 million USD, compared to approximately 100 million USD for GPT-4o [34][39]. - The model's advancements in various areas, including knowledge, long text, code, and mathematics, indicate a potential shift towards more accessible AI models, which could lower overall development costs in the industry [40].

[Table_PageHeader] 食品饮料 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|-------------------------------|--------|---------------|--------|---------------|--------|---------------|------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_TeamList] 宏观总量组 | | 消费组 | | 生物医药组 | | 智能制造组 | 高新技术组 | | 杨欣 | 0871-63577941 | 于快 | 0871-63577941 | 代新宇 | 0871-63577083 | 陈梦瑶 | 0871-63563491 | 肖立戎 0871-63577941 | | | 新材料新能源 | | 汽车 | | 质控风控 | | 合规 | | | 唐贵云 | 0871-63563491 | 唐贵云 | 0871-63563491 | 李雯婧 | 0871-6 ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 17 日 [Table_ReportIndustryName] 汽车 [Table_ReportName] 证券研究报告 —行业深度报告 [Table_ReportAuthors] 新材料新能源 [政策带动下， Table_Title] 11 月汽车销量同比增长 11.7% 未经红塔证券许可 任何人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、转载和引用 需求市场的带动下，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为 117.8GWh，环比 增长 4.2%，同比增长 33.3%。1-11 月，我国动力和其他电池累计产量 为 965.3GWh，累计同比增长 37.7%。销量方面， 11 月，我国动力电 池和其他电池销量为 118.3GWh，同比增长 40.1%，1 月至 11 月，动 力电池和其他电池累计销量为 914.3GWh，同比增长 42.8%。出口方 面，11 月，我国动力和其他电池合计出口 21.9GWh，环比增长 10.3%， 同比增长 23.5%。动力电池和其他电池出口占比分别为 57.0%和 43.0%。1-11 月，我国动力和其他电池累计出口达 167.9GWh ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Views - The domestic nuclear medicine industry is in its early stages of development, with significant growth potential driven by policy support and the localization of medical isotopes [5] - The penetration rate of nuclear medicine diagnostics has been rapidly increasing, with PET/CT and PET/MR examinations showing significant growth from 2019 to 2023 [5] - RDC (Radionuclide Drug Conjugates) nuclear drugs are expected to become the second growth curve for the nuclear medicine market, with treatment-oriented nuclear drugs driving future market expansion [5] Industry Chain Analysis Upstream: Medical Isotopes Localization - 90% of medical isotopes in China are currently imported, but domestic production is expected to increase with the commissioning of new reactors like the Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant in 2024 and the China Nuclear Power Research and Design Institute's reactor in 2027 [5][25] - The localization of isotopes such as lutetium-177, strontium-89, and yttrium-90 is expected to reduce prices and promote the development of radiopharmaceuticals [5][25] Midstream: Nuclear Medicine Policy and RDC Development - The policy framework for nuclear medicine in China is becoming clearer, with high regulatory barriers and continuous optimization of the policy system [26] - The penetration rate of nuclear medicine diagnostics has increased significantly, with PET/CT and PET/MR examinations growing by 62.5% and 97.4% respectively from 2019 to 2023 [29][34] - RDC drugs, which combine diagnostic and therapeutic functions, are expected to open up new treatment areas in nuclear medicine, with significant clinical advantages such as non-invasive diagnostics and reduced resistance to treatment [36][40] Downstream: Nuclear Pharmacy Layout - The nuclear pharmacy market in China is highly concentrated, with key players like Dongcheng Pharmaceutical and China Isotope & Radiation Corporation dominating the market [59] - The construction of nuclear pharmacies requires significant investment and long approval processes, making it a critical component for the commercialization of nuclear drugs [59] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pharmaceutical companies with advanced clinical progress in innovative nuclear drugs, such as Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, China Isotope & Radiation Corporation, and Grand Pharmaceutical [59] - Companies with nuclear pharmacy layouts are also highlighted as key players for future commercialization [59] Market Trends and Data - The domestic nuclear medicine market size was approximately 4.55 billion yuan in 2023, with diagnostic nuclear drugs accounting for over 80% of sales [29] - The number of PET/CT and PET/MR examinations increased by 62.5% and 97.4% respectively from 2019 to 2023, indicating rapid growth in nuclear medicine diagnostics [34] - The global RDC market is gaining traction, with Novartis' Pluvicto achieving over $1 billion in sales, demonstrating the commercial potential of RDC drugs [44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the communication industry is "Outperform the Market" [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing adoption of satellite direct connection technology in flagship smartphones, which is expected to complement ground mobile communication networks and create growth opportunities in the upstream supply chain [6][38]. - The "Guzi Economy," driven by the rise of ACG (Anime, Comic, Game) culture, is becoming a market hotspot, with a significant increase in demand for related products among young consumers [60][71]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - From November 1 to November 29, 2024, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.66%, while the communication industry fell by 1.91%. The computer industry increased by 4.39%, and the media industry rose by 6.65% [5][22]. - Year-to-date, as of November 29, 2024, the CSI 300 index increased by 15.66%, with the communication industry up by 25.26% [23]. 2. Communication Industry 2.1 Domestic Telecom Business Volume - In October 2024, the domestic telecom business volume was 138.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.29%. The cumulative telecom business revenue for the first ten months was 1,453.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [25]. - The average mobile internet access traffic per user reached 19.2 GB/month in October 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [27]. 2.2 Satellite Direct Connection Technology - Satellite direct connection technology is becoming a global focus, allowing mobile devices to connect directly to satellites for data transmission without ground relay equipment [34]. - Major companies like Huawei and Apple are investing heavily in this technology, which is expected to lead to significant market growth opportunities [38]. 3. Computer Industry 3.1 Domestic Software Industry Revenue - In October 2024, the domestic software industry revenue reached 1,234.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.64% [39]. - The revenue from cloud computing and big data services reached 135.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.46% [46]. 3.2 AI Agent Commercialization - The AI Agent product AutoGLM has undergone significant upgrades, enabling it to perform complex tasks and support cross-application execution, enhancing automation efficiency [48][49]. - The competition in AI models has shifted focus, with significant advancements expected in the coming years [51]. 4. Gaming Industry 4.1 Game Approval Status - In November 2024, 112 domestic online games were approved, with a majority being mobile games [56]. 4.2 Rise of the Guzi Economy - The Guzi Economy, which focuses on ACG-related merchandise, has seen a 13.96% increase in its index over the past week, reflecting the growing consumer interest in this sector [60][71]. - The market for the Guzi Economy is projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 40.6% [71].