Group 1 - The report emphasizes that significant positive policies or external events are crucial for the market to find a bottom, and currently, there is a need to wait for such catalysts [9][12][17] - Historical data shows that since 2005, there have been 10 major market bottoms, each preceded or followed by significant policy changes or external events that improved the fundamental outlook [9][10][12] - Recent economic data indicates a decline in key indicators such as investment growth (8.2% to 8.1%), consumption growth (2.7% to 2.1%), and real estate sales (-18.6% to -18%), suggesting a need for policy intervention [9][12][16] Group 2 - The report notes that liquidity conditions are expected to remain loose, with a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, which may lead to a global easing trend [9][12][17] - The sentiment indicators are nearing historical lows, indicating limited further downside potential, with trading volume declines reaching 52% since May 20, 2023 [17][20] - Valuation metrics show that the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1 is at a historically high level, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [17][20] Group 3 - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy focusing on technology growth, core assets, and undervalued dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like TMT and consumer goods [9][12][17] - It highlights that after a market bottom, sectors with high growth potential and those aligned with policy direction tend to outperform, with recent declines observed in construction, beauty care, and agriculture sectors [9][12][17] - The report also points out that core assets such as electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors may present investment opportunities as policies continue to support these areas [9][12][17]

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消费投资偏弱核心 CPI、PPI 均走低，中央财政加码扩张势在必行 事件点评 CPI、PPI 点评（2024.8） 投资要点 8 月总体 CPI 受食品涨价拉动向上，但核心 CPI 受油价下跌渗透、极端高温冲击服务、 耐用品需求不佳的共同影响而走低。PPI 跌幅亦再度加深，国内有效需求仍显乏力。8 月总体CPI和核心CPI走势分化加剧，总体CPI同比再度小幅上行0.1个百分点至0.6%， 为年内次高，主要体现极端高温等影响下食品价格的大幅上涨；而核心 CPI 却再度小幅 下行 0.1 个百分点至 0.3%，为 21Q2 以来新低，能源价格下跌渗透进工业品、极端高温 冲击服务消费、耐用消费品需求不足共同导致这种分化局面。PPI 跌幅亦再度转为加深， 既反映了国际油价下跌的普遍拖累，也显示消费和投资的国内有效需求仍总体相对不 足。 极端高温强降雨拉动生鲜价格，生猪去产能持续推进肉价持续修复，共同推动 8 月食品 价格大涨。8 月食品 CPI 环比再度超季节性大幅上涨 3.4%，同比大幅上行 2.8 个百分 点至 2.8%，仍主要受供给侧两项因素拉动：1）全国普遍高温、局部地区极端强降水， 短期冲击生鲜供给，鲜菜、 ...

Core Views - The report suggests that after a period of reduced trading volume and market bottoming in Q3, there may be opportunities for a rebound in A-shares in Q4 due to credit recovery and policy support [1][5]. Market Trends - The macro environment is favorable for domestic economic and liquidity conditions due to overseas interest rate cuts, which may lead to increased policy efforts in Q4, potentially improving investment and consumption [2][11]. - A-shares are expected to experience a phase of profit recovery and policy-driven valuation uplift in Q4, with large-cap and high-quality small and mid-cap growth stocks likely to outperform [2][5]. - The report indicates that Q4 may present rebound opportunities for A-shares, particularly in technology growth and core assets [2][5]. Industry Configuration - In Q4, there is a need to select timing for high-dividend configurations, with technology growth and core assets presenting potential investment opportunities [2][5]. - The report emphasizes a growth-oriented style for Q4, with large-cap and high-quality small and mid-cap growth stocks expected to lead [2][5]. - Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), new energy vehicles, and pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from liquidity easing and economic recovery [2][5][20]. Macroeconomic Environment - The report highlights that the U.S. job market is weakening, with August non-farm payrolls at 142,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [11][12]. - U.S. inflation is showing signs of decline, with July CPI and core CPI at 2.9% and 3.2% respectively, indicating a potential economic slowdown [12][12]. - The report notes that fiscal policy is likely to strengthen in Q4, driven by weak domestic demand and external economic pressures, with historical precedents suggesting increased government spending during downturns [16][20].

美国核心 CPI 强劲反弹，短暂插曲还是趋势逆转？ 事件点评 美国 CPI 点评（2024.8） 投资要点 美国 8 月核心 CPI 如我们预期强劲反弹，是通胀下行路上的插曲，还是可能扭转市场预 期中的陡峭下行路径？强劲通胀的持续性将对年内美联储降息幅度形成决定性影响。据 美国劳工统计局当地时间 9 月 11 日上午公布的数据，美国 8 月 CPI（经季节调整，下 同）、核心 CPI 同比分别为 2.6%和 3.3%，分别较 7 月回落 0.3 个百分点和抬升 0.1 个 百分点，其中核心 CPI 为过去一年半以来的首次反弹；核心 CPI 环比上涨达 0.28%， 符合我们此前的预期，但较市场预期明显更为强劲。原油价格进一步大幅下跌和去年同 期的高基数是导致 8 月整体 CPI 走弱的主要原因。而作为美联储 9 月 FOMC 会议召开 前公布的最后一项重要经济数据，核心 CPI 的再度反弹，一方面意味着美联储 9 月的"首 降"极大概率将采取 25BP 而非 50BP 的幅度；另一方面如果强劲通胀势头得以延续， 可能令美联储年内实施合计较大幅度降息面临更大挑战，从而可能导致美元指数重拾升 势并形成新的外溢性紧 ...

华 发 集 闭 旗 下 个 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------|----------------------------------------|-------------------------|----------------| | 2024 年 09 月 08 日 \n珂玛科技（ 301611.SZ ） | | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 | 公司快报 | | | | | 电子 \| | 半导体设备Ⅲ | | 国内先进陶瓷材料零部件龙头，显著受益半导体 | 投资评级 | | 买入 -A( | 首次) | | 设备产业链国产化趋势 | 股价 | (2024-09-06) | | 29.37 元 | | | 交易数据 | | | | | 投资要点 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|----------------------------------|-----------------------|------------| | 2024 年 09 月 10 日 | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 | | | 封测板块 Q2 总结：盈利能力改善，持续加码前沿 | | | | | | 先进封装 | | | | | | 投资要点 | | | | | | 第三方封测整体盈利能力改善，先进封装为研发重点方向。（1）日月光：对于 | | | | | | 传统封装业务，公司部分产品出现复苏迹象稼动率接近 60% ，先进封装需求产 | 一年行业表现 | | | | | 品线扩展 ...

加速去杠杆抑制信用，货币支持性降准可期 事件点评 金融数据速评（2024.8） 投资要点 地产和基建去杠杆同步加速，企业居民中长贷需求持续降温，资产负债表收缩格局拐点 未现。8 月新增信贷 9000 亿，同比大幅少增 4600 亿，较 7 月加速降温，呈现两大结构 性拖累：1）8 月居民户贷款新增 1900 亿，同比少增 2022 亿，其中居民短贷和中长贷 同比分别少增 1604 亿和 402 亿，前者下滑更快。这一方面显示房地产市场需求在 5 月 政策集中放松后并未趋势性扭转向好，另一方面也显示地产周期磨底对居民消费意愿形 成更大程度的衍生性影响。2）8 月新增企业中长贷 4900 亿，同比少增 1544 亿，降温 速度与 7 月相仿，这显示地方债务加速去杠杆在基建投资等领域对企业长期信贷需求的 持续压制，在地方债务风险加速化解、今年以来特别国债和专项债投资项目收益性要求 明显提升的背景下，预计未来数月新增企业中长贷难以见到趋势逆转。 国债发行显著加速拉动政府债券融资，但未能完全抵消企业债务融资降温幅度，8 月社 融再度同比少增。8 月新增社融 3.03 万亿，同比小幅少增 981 亿，其中人民币贷款和 企 ...

44 下 下 = | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 09 月 10 日 \n汽车"抢出口" | 宏观类 ● 证券研究报告 \n事件点评 | | 进出口数据点评（2024.8） | 分析师 秦泰 | | 投资要点 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080002 | | 8 月出口在汽车抢出口和低基数的共同推动下出现明显反弹，但可持续性不强，后 | qintai@huajinsc.cn 周欣然 | | 续出口仍面临较大的下行风险。8 月出口（美元计价）同比增速较 7 月大幅反弹 1.7 | 报告联系人 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn | | 个百分点至 8.7% ，达到 23Q2 以来最高增速，大幅高于我们此前预期的原因是汽 | | | 车出口的短暂推升，但后续随着美国和欧盟加征巨额关税的落地实施，以汽车和锂 | 相关 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------|--------| | 2024 年 09 月 08 日 \n硅料价格维持稳定 , 宁德时代四川基地动力电 \n池项目开工【第 35 期】 | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 | | | 投资要点 | | | | | | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | 买入 | -A | | 新能源汽车：本周，据 GGII 数据显示， 2024 年 8 月国内新能源汽车市场渗透 | | | | | | 率突破 50% 。其中比亚迪 8 月新能源车销量达 37.3 万辆，同比 +36.0% ，环比 | | | | | | +9.0%；1-8 月累计销量 232.8 ...