Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant rebound in its advertising revenue and membership growth, with effective members reaching 73.31 million in 2024, leading to a membership revenue exceeding 5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% [2][3]. - The company anticipates a strong content supply in 2025, with various new shows and series planned, which is expected to drive further growth in both membership and advertising revenues [3][10]. - The forecasted revenues for 2024-2026 are 14.745 billion, 16.197 billion, and 18.186 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.409 billion, 2.040 billion, and 2.791 billion yuan [10][12]. Summary by Sections Membership and Revenue Growth - The company reported a total of 73.31 million effective members by the end of 2024, indicating a solid foundation of quality content and the success of its international app expansion plan [3]. - Membership revenue is projected to be over 5 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 18% increase year-on-year [3]. Advertising Revenue and Content Supply - Advertising revenue is showing positive growth, with a projected 8% increase in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half [3]. - The company plans to launch a variety of new content in 2025, including dramas and variety shows, which is expected to enhance viewer engagement and drive revenue [3][10]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 14.745 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 1.409 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 60.4% year-on-year due to tax adjustments [10][12]. - For 2025, revenues are expected to rise to 16.197 billion yuan, with net profits rebounding to 2.040 billion yuan, a 44.8% increase [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a recovery in its main business in 2025, driven by new demands and supplies in the experience economy [4][5] - Despite a projected loss in 2024, the company has a solid order backlog that lays a good foundation for future performance recovery [4][6] - The integration of virtual and real experiences is anticipated to drive a second growth curve through the development of VR/MR and AIGC technologies [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit for Q4 2024 ranging from -0.179 to +0.271 billion yuan, with a non-recurring profit between -0.11 to +0.265 billion yuan, indicating a decline compared to Q4 2023 [4] - The total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 2.065 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2% from 2023, with a projected recovery in 2025 to 2.295 billion yuan [9][10] Profitability Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of -1.0 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.6 billion yuan in 2026 [7][9] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are -51.5 for 2024, 34 for 2025, and 19.8 for 2026, reflecting the expected turnaround in profitability [7][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its cultural tourism business and enhancing its IP incubation and technological investments [5][6] - A partnership with the Yuanmingyuan has been established to create immersive cultural experiences, which is expected to enhance the company's offerings in virtual tourism and historical education [5][6] Market Position - The company is positioned as a connector between new cultural supply and consumer demand in the tourism sector, leveraging its strong order backlog and technological advancements [5][6]

2025 年 01 月 20 日 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-01-17 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 13.56 | | 总市值（亿元） | 86 | | 总股本（百万股） | 634 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 634 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 9.81-17.27 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 67.91 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 横店影视 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《横店影视（603103）：2024 年 跨越低谷新增可期内容需求韧性持 续》2024-03-08 2024 年业绩承压落地 看 2025 年内容新供给 —横店影视（603103.SH）公司事件点评报告 2、《横店影视（603103）：2023Q4 承压落地 2024 年跨越低谷新增可 期》2024-01-29 3、《横店影视（603103）：主业修 复下沉市场具增量后续看优质内容 供给》2023-1 ...

业绩承压落地 2025 年β与α有望双修复 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-01-17 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 11.32 | | 总市值（亿元） | 239 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2112 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2040 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 9-16.1 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 371.68 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 万达电影 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 2025 年 01 月 20 日 1、《万达电影（002739）：龙头地 位持续夯实 AI 及 IP 业务具新增潜 力》2024-04-30 2、《万达电影（002739）：迎新高 层破茧成蝶有望开启新篇章》2024- 01-30 —万达电影（002739.SZ）公司事件点评报告 万达电影发布 2024 年年度业绩预告公告：2024 年公司归母 净利润-9.5~-8.5 亿元，扣非净利润-10.7~-9.7 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main business segments, including film and children's products, show positive trends, but performance is impacted by asset impairment losses, leading to profit fluctuations. However, with a lighter load, performance improvement is expected in 2025 [5][8] - The company is leveraging its IP (Intellectual Property) to explore new supply opportunities, benefiting from a flexible supply chain and partnerships with well-known brands to develop various product lines [6] - The integration of AI with IP is seen as a dual driving force for growth, with the company launching AI-powered plush toys and investing in VR/AR technologies to enhance its product offerings [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit loss of 240 to 290 million yuan for 2024, primarily due to asset impairment losses totaling approximately 330 million yuan [4] - For 2024, the company expects revenues of 2.81 billion yuan, with a slight growth rate of 2.6%, followed by projected revenues of 2.97 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.21 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 5.9% and 8.0% respectively [10][11] Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts a return to profitability in 2025, with a projected net profit of 149 million yuan, and further growth to 205 million yuan in 2026, indicating a significant recovery from the losses in 2024 [10][11] - The report highlights the potential for the company's IP to drive new revenue streams through innovative products and emotional engagement with consumers, particularly in the AI toy market [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its commercial viability through IP development and has established collaborations with major gaming and tech companies to expand its product range [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's flexible supply chain in adapting to market demands and launching new products effectively [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the AI sector, including iFlytek, Cambricon, DingTong Technology, and Yidao Information [12][47]. Core Insights - The U.S. government has implemented the first global AI chip export restrictions, which will significantly impact the global AI technology and chip market, potentially intensifying competition and driving the AI industry towards a multipolar development [4][28]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing expansion of NVIDIA's AI supercomputer production, indicating a substantial order volume and a continued reliance on copper connections for technology applications [12][46]. Summary by Sections AI Chip Ban - On January 13, 2025, the Biden administration released the "Interim Final Rule on Artificial Intelligence Diffusion," detailing export restrictions on AI chips and related technologies [3][21]. - The new regulations categorize countries into three tiers, with the first tier including the U.S. and 18 allies, allowing unrestricted access to advanced AI technologies [4][24]. AI Applications - Japanese startup Sakana AI introduced a machine learning system called Transformer2, which dynamically adjusts model weights based on task requirements, showcasing significant advancements in efficiency and task-specific performance [5][32]. - QuillBot experienced a 10.35% increase in search traffic, indicating growing interest in AI applications [30]. AI Financing Trends - Yidao Technology and Prophecy secured significant funding, with Yidao raising hundreds of millions of RMB and Prophecy obtaining $47 million in Series B funding [11][36]. - Yidao Technology showcased an AI laundry robot at CES 2025, demonstrating its capabilities in multi-modal perception and AI computing [11][36]. Market Performance - The AI computing index and AI application index showed fluctuations, with notable gains and losses among key players, reflecting the dynamic nature of the market [38][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - Domestic robot manufacturers are rapidly advancing, presenting promising investment opportunities in the robot supply chain [1] - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the continuation and expansion of the vehicle replacement policy, which is projected to stimulate sales significantly in 2025 [8][9] - The report highlights the performance of various companies and sectors within the automotive industry, emphasizing the potential for growth in both vehicle manufacturing and parts supply [41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance has shown a 4.4% increase, outperforming the broader market by 2.2 percentage points [15] - The passenger vehicle market experienced a decline in retail sales, with January's average daily retail sales dropping 28% year-on-year [33] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - For robots: Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Top Group, and others [41] - For automotive: New Spring Co., Zhejiang Rongtai, and others [41] - Specific recommendations for electric vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers are highlighted, indicating a strong growth potential in these areas [9][41] Policy Impact - The 2025 vehicle replacement policy is expected to drive an increase in retail sales by over 580 billion yuan, with an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 additional vehicles sold [7][8] - The report notes that the expansion of the vehicle replacement policy will likely lead to a significant uptick in consumer purchasing behavior [8][9] Company Performance and Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for many within the automotive sector [42] - Companies such as Jianghuai Automobile and Sailyus are highlighted for their potential to capture market share due to their collaborations with Huawei [9][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the pig farming industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The average price of pigs is expected to decline to 12 yuan/kg in 2025, with quarterly averages projected at 14, 13, 12, and 11 yuan/kg for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively [3][24] - Demand for pork is anticipated to remain weak, unable to support prices, while supply continues to be the primary factor influencing prices [3][23] - The industry is experiencing a continuous increase in production capacity, leading to an expected rise in pork supply [4][23] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is projected to drop to 12 yuan/kg in 2025, with a downward trend expected throughout the year [3][24] - The supply side is seeing a consistent increase in production capacity, with the number of breeding sows rising by 9.60% since the end of the large-scale epidemic in February 2023 [4][23] - The current average price for pigs is 15.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg [24][43] - The cost of pig farming is closely linked to corn and soybean meal prices, with potential fluctuations based on South American harvests [5][25] - The price of piglets has rebounded to 448.1 yuan/head, a 10.7% increase week-on-week, but this is viewed as a short-term supply-demand phenomenon [6][26] - Companies with cost advantages and expansion capabilities are recommended for investment, as they are likely to perform better in a challenging market [7][28] Pet Economy - The pet hospital market in first-tier cities is becoming saturated, leading to price competition, while second-tier cities present significant growth opportunities [9][30] Outdoor Sportswear - The sales performance in Q4 2024 is expected to improve significantly compared to Q3, driven by consumer stimulus policies and online shopping events [10][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the new energy vehicle industry is maintained as "Recommended" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a strong certainty, with opportunities for investment in high-quality assets. In December 2024, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.53 million and 1.596 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 30.5% and 34% [3][60]. - The supply side is seeing continuous new product launches from battery and main engine manufacturers, with positive feedback from demand and supportive policies. The price level has undergone significant declines, and capital expenditures are being reduced, leading to an improved supply-demand structure [3][4]. - The overall price in the industry chain is at a low point, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall. The demand side remains resilient, and with adjustments in the stock prices of core companies, this presents a good opportunity for investment in high-quality companies within the industry chain [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Tracking - The new energy vehicle index, lithium battery index, fuel cell index, charging pile index, and energy storage index experienced weekly changes of +5.13%, +4.98%, +3.84%, +2.96%, and +4.55%, respectively [6]. - The lithium price for lithium carbonate is quoted at 77,900 yuan/ton, up 2.5% from last week, while lithium hydroxide is at 70,500 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [6][35]. Price Tracking in Lithium Battery Industry - Year-to-date, major material prices have fluctuated, with lithium carbonate and nickel prices increasing by 3.9% and 4.9%, respectively. This week, lithium carbonate rose by 2.5% and nickel by 1.8% [31][35]. Production and Sales Data Tracking - In December, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.53 million and 1.596 million units, with year-on-year growth of 30.5% and 34%, respectively. In 2024, production and sales reached 12.888 million and 12.866 million units, with year-on-year growth of 34.4% and 35.5% [60][72]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights that the U.S. automotive market saw a 2.5% increase in sales in 2024, reaching over 16 million units, the highest in five years. In December, BYD's monthly sales exceeded 500,000 units, while mainstream joint venture automakers faced a decline in market share [74][75]. Key Company Announcements - Yongxing Materials expects a significant decline in net profit for 2024, projecting a range of 1.03 billion to 1.23 billion yuan, down from 3.407 billion yuan in the previous year [78][83].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry [20] Core Views - The media industry is expected to benefit from supportive policies aimed at promoting cultural and tourism consumption, with a focus on new growth points and consumption scenarios [15][16] - The integration of rich media and intellectual property (IP) is anticipated to drive the development of cultural products and enhance user engagement [16] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to boost box office performance with several major films scheduled for release [17][18] Summary by Sections Industry Overview and Dynamics - The media sector has shown varied performance, with the internet marketing index experiencing significant gains while the Disney index lagged [14] - The report highlights the importance of policy support for the media sector, particularly in enhancing cultural tourism and consumption [15] Film Market - Six films are confirmed for release during the 2025 Spring Festival, including titles like "Detective Chinatown 1900" and "The Legend of the Condor Heroes" [17] - The report notes that the film industry in 2024 faced challenges due to a lack of quality content, but 2025 is expected to see improvements driven by policy support and content supply [18] Television Market - The report indicates that popular TV shows include "True Heart Heroes" and "The Color of the Country," reflecting strong audience engagement [33] Game Market - The report mentions significant growth in the mobile gaming sector, with Tencent and other companies leading in global revenue [19][25]