证 2024 年 07 月 29 日 告 行 研 究 究 报 国内外海风需求共振，国网投资首次超 6000 亿 —电力设备行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张涵 S1050521110008 zhanghan3@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：罗笛箫 S1050122110005 luodx@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------|-------|-------| | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电力设备(申万) | -2.1 | -14.7 | -34.3 | | 沪深 300 | -2.0 | -6.4 | -15.1 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：电网投资 稳健高增，持续看好电力改革推 进》2024-07-01 2、《电力设备行业周报：变压器出 口成绩优异，南网计划今年固定资 产投资 1730 亿》2024-06-24 3、《电力设备行业周报：SN ...

证 2024 年 07 月 29 日 行 研 究 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 (%) 汽车 沪深300 市场表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|-------| | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车(申万) | -1.4 | -8.7 | -10.3 | | 沪深 300 | -1.5 | -5.9 | -14.6 | 券 研 究 报 告 乘用车报废更新补贴翻倍，华为智驾产品下探至 20 万元以下，Optimus 量产新指引出炉 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 ▌乘用车报废更新补贴翻倍，更新需求有望进一步释 放 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 乘用车报废更新补贴翻倍：7 月 25 日国家发改委发布《关于加力支持大 规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》的通知，文件提出，统筹安 排 3000 亿元左右超长期特别国债资金，加力支持大规模设备更新和消费 品以旧换新。此次的汽车报废更新补贴翻倍对车市是重大的利好，乘用车 补贴实现翻倍。 ...

证 2024 年 07 月 29 日 S 研 究 三星 HBM3 产品或已获得英伟达批准，苹果先进 应用研究实验室扩展至深圳 —电子行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：毛正 S1050521120001 maozheng@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|-------| | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电子(申万) | -2.0 | -1.2 | -12.5 | | 沪深 300 | -1.5 | -5.9 | -14.6 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：日系被动元件 大厂计划涨价，对华芯片贸易管制 升级聚焦国产替代》2024-07-21 2、《电子行业周报：苹果市值创历 史新高重回美股第一，台积电 2nm 制程芯片将试产》2024-07-14 3、《电子行业周报：WAIC2024 开 幕，三星研发 3.3D 先进封装》 2024-07-07 - ...

Market Overview - The current market sentiment score is 48, indicating a "neutral" sentiment level[40] - The recent trend shows a significant decline in the CSI 300 index, with a drop of approximately 25% over the past year[4] Financing and Margin Trading - The top ten industries for net inflow of main funds include Home Appliances (106,069,000 CNY) and Automotive (95,076,000 CNY) while the top outflow industries include Coal (-12,550,000 CNY) and Communication (-25,525,000 CNY)[13] - The net buy amount for financing in the top ten industries is led by China Nuclear Power (17,532,210 CNY) and Ningde Times (12,787,420 CNY)[30] - The top ten industries for net selling of margin trading are led by Banking (-120,982,000 CNY) and Transportation (-87,274,000 CNY)[30] Sector Insights - Key themes include Cybersecurity, Water Conservation, and Satellite Navigation, with specific companies highlighted for investment opportunities[41] - The water conservation industry is projected to reach a scale of 1 trillion CNY by 2027, emphasizing the growth potential in this sector[41] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a cautious approach in the current market, focusing on value investment opportunities while managing risks[14] - The investment rating system indicates a "buy" recommendation for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20%[34]

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the importance of the "accelerated replacement and upgrade" strategy for domestic economic support and corresponding investment opportunities, particularly in sectors such as energy, elevators, shipping, agricultural machinery, new energy buses, and household appliances [13][54]. Policy Framework - The "1+N" policy framework is being established to support large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods, with the "1" representing the overall action plan and "N" denoting specific implementation plans across various sectors [28][54]. - The State Council has set a target for equipment investment in various sectors to increase by over 25% by 2027 compared to 2023 levels, with specific measures to enhance financial, tax, and standardization support [29][53]. Market Space - The projected market increment for 2024 is estimated at 707.9 billion, which is expected to boost GDP by 0.56 percentage points [18][24]. - Investment in equipment updates is forecasted to reach 312.4 billion in 2024, with a total investment of 1.3613 trillion by 2027 [15]. Industry Opportunities - The report identifies significant opportunities in mechanical equipment, petrochemicals, energy, automotive, and household appliances due to the demand for equipment updates and consumer replacements [49]. - Specific sectors highlighted include high-speed rail, shipping, industrial machinery, and household appliances, which are expected to benefit from government support and market demand [2][49]. Implementation Measures - The report outlines various measures to facilitate equipment updates, including financial support, tax incentives, and streamlined approval processes for projects [54]. - Key areas for equipment updates include industrial machinery, agricultural machinery, energy-efficient appliances, and transportation vehicles, with specific subsidies and support mechanisms detailed for each category [54][55].

2024 年 07 月 28 日 策 指数调整量能回落，北交所服务专精特新企业实 现创新飞跃 投资要点 指数点位：本周华鑫北证综指报收 684.18 点，周内下跌 2.35%，北证 50 指数报收 701.51 点，周内下跌 3.14%，同期 沪深 300 指数下跌 3.67%。成交额：本周北交所每日成交额 分别为 49.24/46.79/43.92/43.90/44.08 亿元，周内日均成 交额为 45.59 亿，相比上周日均成交额 76.38 亿减少 40.32%。估值：截至 7 月 26 日，北证 A 股在剔除负值后得到 共 223 家上市公司样本，样本的 PE 均值为 37.26 倍，PE 中 位数为 20.44 倍，PE 在 20 倍以内的上市公司占比达到 47.73%，样本整体市盈率分布呈右偏。 近日，《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现 代化的决定》(以下简称《决定》）正式发布。《决定》提 出，构建促进专精特新中小企业发展壮大机制。鼓励科技型 中小企业加大研发投入，提高研发费用加计扣除比例。鼓励 和引导高校、科研院所按照先使用后付费方式把科技成果许 可给中小微企业使用。据 Wind 数 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a downward trend in the performance of various industries, with notable declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metals (-6.97%) and food and beverage (-6.31%) [1][2] - The report indicates significant capital flows, with the non-ferrous metals sector experiencing a net inflow of 20.66 billion, despite its overall negative return [1][2] - The defense and military industry shows a positive trend with a return of 2.19% and a net inflow of 6.30 billion, indicating strong investor interest [1][2] Industry Overview - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Experienced a -6.97% return with a net outflow of -3.05 million and a significant net inflow of 20.66 billion, indicating high volatility and investor interest [1] - **Electric Power and Utilities**: Showed a slight decline of -0.31% with a net inflow of 3.44 million, suggesting a stable but cautious investor sentiment [1] - **Defense and Military**: Achieved a positive return of 2.19% with a net inflow of 6.30 billion, reflecting strong demand and confidence in the sector [1] - **Communication**: Experienced a decline of -3.54% with a net outflow of -4.13 million, indicating a challenging environment for the sector [1] - **Automotive**: Reported a -1.90% return with a net inflow of 4.26 million, suggesting mixed investor sentiment [1] - **Pharmaceuticals**: Showed a decline of -4.01% with a net inflow of 9.20 million, indicating potential concerns despite some capital inflow [1] - **Banking**: Experienced a -2.98% return with a net inflow of 8.00 million, reflecting a complex market environment [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The report tracks significant capital movements, with the non-ferrous metals sector attracting substantial investment despite its negative performance, indicating a potential speculative interest [2] - The defense and military sector's positive performance and capital inflow suggest a strong outlook and investor confidence [1][2] - The overall capital flow trends indicate a cautious approach from investors, with some sectors experiencing outflows while others attract significant inflows [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, citing its stable core business and the potential for a second profit growth point through its acquisition of Wuhan Junheng [52][42] Core Views - The company's main business includes landscape engineering, landscape design, and seedling cultivation, with 2023 revenue reaching 685 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.07% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 57 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.88%, while non-GAAP net profit was 48 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.53% [5] - The acquisition of a 30% stake in Wuhan Junheng aims to diversify the company's industrial layout and enhance its comprehensive competitiveness, with the optical module industry presenting significant growth opportunities [5][47] Business Overview - Wuhan Junheng, founded in 2012, specializes in the optical module sector and has seen rapid revenue growth from 209 million yuan in 2021 to 443 million yuan in 2023 [24] - In Q1 2024, Wuhan Junheng achieved revenue of 138 million yuan and a net profit of 16 million yuan, with 400G and 800G products accounting for over 50% of sales [24] - The company's gross margin improved from 20.28% in 2023 to 29.70% in Q1 2024, driven by the increased proportion of high-speed optical module products [24] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 685 million yuan in 2023 to 967 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [53] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 57 million yuan in 2023 to 199 million yuan in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 83% in 2024 [53] - The company's ROE is forecasted to rise from 3.8% in 2023 to 11.8% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [53] Industry Analysis - The optical module industry is technology-intensive, with high barriers to entry in terms of technology, production processes, and market access [27] - The industry is benefiting from data center construction, network architecture upgrades, and AI computing power development, with 400G and above high-speed optical modules entering a product iteration cycle [27] - The company's acquisition of Wuhan Junheng aligns with the national strategy of developing new productive forces, aiming to enter high-tech fields such as new technologies and materials [27] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week range of 3.4 to 6.42 yuan [21] - The current stock price is 5.29 yuan, with a daily average trading volume of 68.4 million yuan [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic pesticide industry, awaiting an improvement in industry conditions [2]. - New projects are steadily advancing, and capacity expansion is expected to enhance profitability [2]. - Backed by Syngenta, the company has a clear strategy and is empowered to embark on a new journey [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of pesticide prices as the supply-demand dynamics improve [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Growth - The company has nearly 70 pesticide products, including insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, and plant growth regulators, establishing a diversified product structure centered around pyrethroids [2][11]. - The company is a core supplier of pyrethroid raw materials globally and has strengthened partnerships with major clients to expand market share [2][11]. - The company has faced performance pressure due to a downturn in the pesticide industry but is expected to benefit from a recovery in global agricultural product prices and stricter domestic environmental regulations [2][4]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to be 130.2 billion yuan in 2024, 151 billion yuan in 2025, and 175.8 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 4.12, 4.86, and 5.68 yuan [4][6]. - The company’s revenue decreased by 27% in 2023, with a net profit decline of 12.8% [17][18]. - The company’s core revenue and profit contributions come from its raw pesticide business, which accounted for 64% of total revenue in 2023 [18]. 3. Capacity Expansion and New Projects - The company’s "Youjia" project is ramping up production, with the fourth phase expected to be operational by the end of 2023, and the fifth phase is being accelerated [2][14]. - The Huludao project is set to contribute an average annual revenue of 4.238 billion yuan once operational [2][14]. 4. Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - Syngenta Group has become the largest shareholder of the company, providing strong procurement demand for raw materials and enhancing the company’s technological and operational capabilities [2][11]. - The company is expected to leverage Syngenta's global marketing network to accelerate business expansion, with sales to Syngenta accounting for 25% of its revenue in 2023 [2][11]. 5. Risk Management and Financial Health - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio around 40% and a significant cash balance of 1.855 billion yuan as of Q1 2024 [21]. - The company has a history of consistent cash dividends, with a payout ratio of 22.85% in 2023, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [21].

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 以旧换新政策持续加码，宁德时代业绩表现强劲 新能源汽车行业周报 报告日期： 推荐 维持 投资评级： （ ） 2024年07月28日 ◼ 分析师：黎江涛 ◼ SAC编号：S1050521120002 投 资 要 点 宁德时代发布2024年半年报：7月26日，宁德时代公告，2024年上半年公司实现营业收入1667.67亿元，同比下降11.88%； 归属于上市公司股东的净利润228.65亿元，同比增长10.37%。业绩表现强劲。 《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》25日对外发布：文件提出，统筹安排3000亿元左右超长期 特别国债资金，加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。该政策持续加码，拉动汽车市场需求。 行业评级及投资策略： 以旧换新政策加码落地拉动需求，供给端部分企业开始收缩资本开支，供需结构在边际优化，2024年产业链盈利有望逐季 环比改善，估值或将修复，基本面反转尚需等待产能出清。继续优选有望贡献超额收益方向，看好液冷、固态电池、电池材 料α品种、华为链、机器人等方向。维持新能源汽车行业"推荐"评级。 1）主材：宁德时代、尚太科技、科达利等； 2）新 ...