| | | |-----------------------|------| | 2024 年 07 月 08 日 | | | 费倩然 | | | H70507@capital.com.tw | | | 目标价(元) | 14.4 | | | | | | |--------------------|--------|--------|--------------| | 公司基本资讯 | | | | | 产业别 | | | 化工 | | A 股价(2024/7/5) | | | 11.59 | | 深证成指(2024/7/5) | | | 8695.55 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | | 12.58/8.6 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 1916.48 | | A 股数(百万) | | | 1903.60 | | A 市值(亿元) | | | 220.63 | | 主要股东 | | | 鲁西集团有限 | | | | 公司 | (25.69%) | | 每股净值(元) | | | 8.99 | | 股价/账面净值 | | | 1.29 | | | 一个月 | 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌 ...

| | | |---------------------|----| | 2024 年 7 月 8 日 | | | 朱吉翔 | | | C0044@capitalcom.tw | | | 目标价(元) | 72 | | | |--------------------| | 公司基本资讯 | | 产业别 | | A 股价(2024/7/5) | | 上证指数(2024/7/5) | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | A 股数(百万) | | A 市值(亿元) | | 主要股东 | | | | | | 每股净值(元) | | 股价/账面净值 | | | | 股价涨跌(%) | 近期评等 出刊日期 前日收盘 评等 | | | |----------------|-----| | 产品组合 | | | 互联类芯片 | 96% | | 津逮服务器平台 | 4% | 机构投资者占流通 A 股比例 基金 19.7% 一般法人 25.8% 股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 澜起科技(688 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the integrated forestry, pulp, and paper industry in China, with a diverse product range including cultural paper, boxboard paper, and household paper. Despite rising pulp prices in H1 2024, paper prices have declined, which may pressure profitability. The company's long-term investments in upstream forestry and pulp have enhanced its operational resilience [4][5]. - The report highlights that the company's self-sufficiency in pulp has reached 60%, significantly mitigating the impact of pulp price fluctuations. The company has established a total pulp and paper production capacity exceeding 12 million tons across its bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the light industry manufacturing sector, with a current A-share price of 13.92 RMB as of June 28, 2024, and a target price of 15.8 RMB [1]. - Major shareholders include Shandong Sun Paper Holdings Group Co., Ltd., holding 44.73% of shares [1]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 34.1 billion RMB, 38.2 billion RMB, and 41.3 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 8% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.22 RMB, 1.37 RMB, and 1.48 RMB for the same period [5][6]. - The report notes a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to rising pulp prices, with previous estimates being slightly higher [5]. Market Conditions - The report indicates that the pulp price has increased significantly, with hardwood pulp prices rising by 18.5% and softwood pulp prices by 7.7% since the beginning of 2024. However, paper prices have decreased, with double glue paper and coated paper prices falling by 6.5% and 3.1% respectively [4][5]. - The report anticipates limited recovery in pulp prices in H2 2024 due to various market factors, including currency fluctuations and weak domestic bargaining power [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady growth in the sales of the 9-valent HPV vaccine, with a year-over-year increase of 14% in batch approvals from January to May [5]. - The company has entered into an agreement with GSK for the distribution of the shingles vaccine, which has shown a remarkable growth of 117% in batch approvals during the same period [5]. - The sales team is described as industry-leading, with a workforce of 3,990 professionals covering all provinces and over 30,000 grassroots health service points, which is expected to drive the sales of both HPV and shingles vaccines [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 85.4 billion, RMB 97.5 billion, and RMB 100.7 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.8%, 14.2%, and 3.3% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 3.6, RMB 4.1, and RMB 4.2 for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.9X, 6.9X, and 6.7X [5]. - The company anticipates significant revenue contributions from the shingles vaccine, estimated at RMB 52.7 billion, RMB 105.4 billion, and RMB 158.1 billion from 2024 to 2026 [5]. Product Composition - The product mix consists of 91.4% agency products (second-class vaccines) and 8.6% self-developed products [2]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholder, Jiang Rensheng, holds 48.32% of the company [1]. - Institutional investors hold 10.8% of the circulating A-shares, with general corporations holding 3.2% [3]. Market Performance - As of June 28, 2024, the company's A-share price is RMB 28.03, with a target price set at RMB 34, indicating a potential upside [1]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 15.0% over the past month and 39.9% over the past three months [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s projected operating revenue for 2024 is RMB 60.83 billion, with operating costs estimated at RMB 44.35 billion [8]. - The total profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 10.04 billion, with a net profit of RMB 8.54 billion [8]. Dividend Information - The company is expected to provide dividends of RMB 1.18, RMB 1.34, and RMB 1.39 for the years 2024 to 2026, with a dividend yield of 4.18% [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for potential price appreciation [11]. Core Insights - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a 50% dividend ratio for the year, showcasing its strong dividend yield of 4.54% for A-shares and 6.37% for H-shares [2]. - The company demonstrated robust performance in Q1 2024, achieving a revenue of 812.18 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.68 billion RMB, up 4.7% year-on-year [6]. - The report highlights the stability of the company's operations and its strong earnings certainty, supported by rich upstream resources and a commitment to shareholder returns through consistent dividends [16]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 171 billion RMB in 2024, 179 billion RMB in 2025, and 182 billion RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 4%, and 2% respectively [17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.94 RMB in 2024, 0.98 RMB in 2025, and 0.99 RMB in 2026, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [17]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including revenue and profit forecasts, indicating a stable growth pattern in the coming years [4][7]. Market Context - The report notes an increase in refined oil prices, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the company's sales segment, with gasoline and diesel prices rising significantly compared to previous periods [12]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for oil and gas, particularly with the anticipated increase in downstream demand during the summer travel season [16][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guanghe Tong (300638) with a target price of 20.00 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery in the IoT industry, with a notable increase in downstream demand [2]. - The company showcased multiple edge AI module products at the MWC Shanghai event, indicating a strong product portfolio and technological capabilities [2]. - The report highlights the company's leadership in the IoT module sector, projecting a robust growth trajectory due to the industry's recovery [2]. Financial Summary - The company's net profit is projected to grow from 364.46 million CNY in 2022 to 754.39 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.86% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.48 CNY in 2022 to 0.99 CNY in 2024, with a similar growth rate of 33.86% [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 34 in 2023 to 16 in 2024, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [4]. Revenue and Cost Projections - Revenue is expected to rise from 5.646 billion CNY in 2022 to 9.239 billion CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) reflecting the recovery in the IoT market [6]. - Operating costs are projected to increase in line with revenue, from 4.507 billion CNY in 2022 to 7.071 billion CNY in 2024, maintaining a healthy operating margin [6]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned to capture significant market share in the automotive sector, leveraging partnerships with major automotive manufacturers [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the company's edge computing solutions to integrate with AI technologies, enhancing application scenarios and data analysis efficiency [2]. - The anticipated recovery in the global IoT module shipments is expected to drive demand for the company's products, particularly in smart home, robotics, and industrial applications [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum (601857.SH/00857.HK) with a target price of 12 RMB/8.3 HKD [4][6]. Core Views - The energy oil and gas market remains favorable, with expectations of increased downstream demand for crude oil due to the upcoming summer travel season. The company has stable operations and abundant upstream resources, leading to strong earnings certainty. The company emphasizes shareholder rights with a long-term commitment to high dividend ratios, making the dividend configuration value still significant [4][6]. - The company has successfully increased the proportion of direct supply and sales to customers, enhancing sales volume efficiency. The decline in natural gas costs has led to a noticeable increase in profits, with the NYMEX natural gas average price for H1 2024 at 2.19 USD/million BTU, down 14% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 171 billion, 179 billion, and 182 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +6%, +4%, and +2%. The corresponding P/E ratios for A-shares are 10.4, 9.9, and 9.8, while for H-shares they are 7.4, 7.1, and 6.9 [6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 812.184 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.88%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 45.681 billion RMB, up 4.7% year-on-year. The Q2 average crude oil prices are expected to rise, with Brent crude averaging 85.0 USD/barrel and WTI averaging 80.6 USD/barrel, indicating continued revenue and profit growth [12][22]. Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, reaching 50% for the year. The mid-year dividend for 2023 was 0.21 RMB/share, and the year-end dividend was 0.23 RMB/share, resulting in an A-share dividend yield of 4.54% and a Hong Kong share yield of 6.37% [13][14]. Market Dynamics - The increase in refined oil prices is expected to enhance the profitability of the sales segment. As of June 28, 2024, the domestic gasoline supply price is 9,220 RMB/ton, up 390 RMB/ton from the beginning of the year, and the diesel supply price is 8,175 RMB/ton, up 380 RMB/ton [22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global logistics service provider, focusing on the mid-to-high-end market with a robust moat in timely delivery services. The recent operational launch of Ezhou Huahu Airport is expected to enhance international business growth [4][5]. - The company's valuation is currently at a historical low, presenting an opportunity for investment [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the transportation industry, with a current A-share price of 35.22 RMB as of June 27, 2024. The market capitalization stands at 168.65 billion RMB, with a total share count of approximately 4.82 billion [2]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.15 billion RMB, 10.23 billion RMB, and 12.03 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 12%, and 18% [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.87 RMB, 2.09 RMB, and 2.46 RMB for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19x, 17x, and 14x [5][7]. Business Segments - The company's product mix includes express delivery, freight, cold chain, same-city delivery, and supply chain services, with significant capital investments ensuring a competitive edge in service quality and delivery speed [4]. - The international business segment has shown signs of recovery, with a reported 8.5% year-over-year revenue growth from January to May 2024, driven by increased demand and improved pricing in international air and sea freight [4]. Market Position - The company has a strong market position, with substantial capital expenditures totaling 64.54 billion RMB from 2019 to 2023, significantly higher than competitors [4]. - The company has a fleet of 87 dedicated cargo aircraft, leading the market compared to its competitors, which positions it well for future growth in international logistics [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4][7]. Core Views - The vitamin industry has been at a low point for the past two years, but there are signs of recovery as downstream farming profits improve and exports increase. The company, as a leading global vitamin producer, is expected to benefit from this recovery [4][5]. - Recent price increases for various vitamins, including a rise in the average price of VA to 83 RMB/kg and VE to 74 RMB/kg, suggest a strengthening market. The overall vitamin supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to improve [5][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the vitamin market, with significant production capacities for VA and VE, and is also expanding into methionine production, which is expected to contribute to profit growth [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Information - The company operates in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, with a current stock price of 19.16 RMB and a market capitalization of 58.524 billion RMB. The stock has seen a 29.7% increase over the past year [1][2]. Recent Ratings - The company has received "Trading Buy" ratings in previous reports, with the latest rating issued on August 30, 2023, at a closing price of 15.99 RMB [2]. Product Portfolio - The company's product mix includes 65.3% nutrition products, 21.7% flavor and fragrance products, 7.9% new materials, and 5.1% other categories [2]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Vitamin prices have shown signs of recovery, with significant increases noted in June 2024. The report highlights that the demand for vitamins, particularly as feed additives, is expected to rise due to improved farming profits [5][6]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 36 billion RMB in 2024, 45 billion RMB in 2025, and 55 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 24%, and 23% respectively. The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for these years are 1.17 RMB, 1.44 RMB, and 1.77 RMB [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, with a target price of 55 RMB per share [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has faced significant pressure on its performance in 2023 due to industry conditions, but has recently seen a rebound in net profit by 140% in Q1 2024, driven by a recovery in downstream demand in the IoT sector. The emergence of new industries such as AIoT is expected to provide new growth momentum [3][16]. - The company has secured large overseas orders in the automotive sector, which are projected to enhance performance starting in 2026, with total sales estimated between 742 million to 1.309 billion USD over the project's lifecycle [4]. - The IoT industry is showing signs of recovery, with inventory levels normalizing and demand increasing in sectors like automotive and AIoT. The company, as a leading IoT module provider, is well-positioned to benefit from this recovery [7][16]. Financial Summary - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 598.43 million RMB, with a year-over-year increase of 559.72%. EPS is expected to be 2.26 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 20 [10][18]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 13.86 billion RMB in 2023 to 16.88 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a recovery in the market [12]. - The company has demonstrated effective cost control, with significant reductions in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios in Q1 2024 compared to the previous year [16].