ab 30 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab APAC Economic Perspectives Asia by the Numbers (August 2024) Downgrading China's GDP growth forecast to 4.6% in '24 and 4.0% in '25 Despite new easing measures in July, China's property downturn has persisted. Given lingering inventory pressures, we downgraded our property market forecasts, and expect sales, new starts, and investments to continue falling in 2025, albeit at a slower rate. The weakness in property activities and prices has further weighed on ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating for the company with a 12-month target price of **Rmb24.00** [4] Core Viewpoints - The company announced its intention to acquire a controlling stake of at least 51% in Runyang, the world's fifth-largest solar cell manufacturer, for a total transaction value not exceeding **Rmb5 billion** [2] - Runyang has significant production capacities, including **5.5 million tons of industrial silicon, 1.3 million tons of polysilicon, 7GW of crystal pulling, 10GW of wafers, 57GW of solar cells, and 13GW of modules**, with **11GW of overseas cell capacity** and a **5GW module capacity under construction in the US** [2] - The acquisition is expected to create synergies with the company's existing polysilicon, cell, and module businesses, enhancing market share and pricing power, while Runyang's overseas capacity could provide additional value for the company's international market expansion [2] - The acquisition signals the beginning of industry consolidation, which could improve supply-demand dynamics and accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity [3] Company Background - The company was established in 1995 and initially focused on agricultural feed before transitioning to become one of the world's largest manufacturers of monocrystalline silicon and monocrystalline cells by capacity [8] - As of the end of 2023, the company's annual production capacities were **450,000 tons of silicon, 95GW of cells, and 75GW of modules** [8] Valuation and Forecast - The report uses a **DCF valuation method** to derive the target price [9] - The forecasted stock price increase is **29.2%**, with a dividend yield of **0.9%**, resulting in a total stock return of **30.1%** [7] - The market return assumption is **7.3%**, leading to an excess return forecast of **22.8%** [7] Industry Outlook - The acquisition is seen as a positive signal for industry consolidation, with the potential to improve overall supply-demand conditions [3] - Runyang's assets, particularly its cell and polysilicon capacities built since 2020 and 2023 respectively, are considered to be of high quality and technologically advanced [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb 24.00, down from Rmb 24.50 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a 33% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit for Q2, driven by improved coal-to-olefins price spreads and increased production of EVA [2][3]. - The Inner Mongolia olefins project is on track for production in Q4, with the first unit expected to start in October [4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of Rmb 16.9 billion in the first half of the year, a 29% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of Rmb 3.3 billion, a 46% year-on-year increase [2]. - In Q2 alone, revenue reached Rmb 8.67 billion, reflecting a 36% year-on-year increase and a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase, while net profit was Rmb 1.88 billion, up 76% year-on-year and 33% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Product Performance - For Q2, polyethylene production and sales volumes decreased by 2% and 5% respectively, while polypropylene production and sales volumes increased by 10% and 14% respectively [3]. - The price spread for coal-based polyethylene and polypropylene improved by 13% and 15% respectively due to a decrease in coal prices [3]. Project Updates - The Inner Mongolia 3 million tons olefins project is progressing as planned, with 32% of the construction completed as of the half-year report [4]. - The first olefins unit is scheduled to be operational in October, with subsequent units expected to start in November and December [4]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to Rmb 24.00 per share based on a DCF valuation method, maintaining a WACC of 8.6% [5]. - The valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 22x for 2024 and 12x for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a 12-month target price of Rmb40.30 [6][19]. Core Insights - The company's H124 performance slightly missed consensus expectations, with revenue of Rmb11,827 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of Rmb1,800 million, up 28.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - Key drivers for profit improvement include enhanced market development for infusion and non-infusion drugs, increased volume and price for intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients, and a reduction in interest-bearing debt and financing rates [3]. - The company maintains its previous guidance for FY24 net profit (excluding Kolun Botai) to reach Rmb3.2-3.25 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of over 15% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H124 revenue was Rmb11,827 million, slightly below UBS's forecast of Rmb11,912 million and consensus expectations of Rmb11,918 million, reflecting a -0.8% variance [5]. - H124 net profit was Rmb1,800 million, exceeding UBS's estimate of Rmb1,631 million but falling short of consensus expectations of Rmb1,837 million, showing a -2.0% variance [5]. Business Outlook - The company expects infusion business to grow over 15% year-on-year, non-infusion drugs to grow approximately 15%, intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients to grow around 20%, and external investment to grow about 10% [4]. - Anticipated investor focus includes the registration progress and timeline for key products like SKB264, demand trends for infusion products related to respiratory infections, and the potential impact of the tenth batch of national procurement [3]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is Rmb49.9 billion (approximately US$6.95 billion) with a 52-week stock price range of Rmb35.01 to Rmb22.59 [6]. - The average daily trading volume is 12,332 thousand shares, with an average daily turnover of Rmb393.2 million [6].

快评 新洁能 2Q归母净利润同比增长 42%；管理层维持对 于2H24的积极展望 2Q24营收和归母净利润均好于我们和市场预期 2Q24公司的营业收入(+30%/+35% YoY/QoQ)和归母净利润(+42%/+18% YoY/QoQ) 分别较Reuters一致预期和瑞银证券预测高14%/13%（vs一致预 期）和13%/12%(vs 瑞银证券预测)。我们认为这主要是由于：1）2Q24公 司营业收入的环比增长受到需求回升、国产替代以及切入新的应用的综合影 响，好于过去3年的平均季节性（2Q24 +35% QoQ vs 历史平均+7% QoQ）；2）受到晶圆代工成本下降、产品结构改善等因素，公司2Q24综合 毛利率的环比表现（+1.8ppts QoQ）优于我们预期（我们之前预测环比大 致持平）。 哪些因素推动公司2季度业绩好于行业平均水平？ 2Q24公司营业收入环比增长35%，基于公司数据推算，我们估计其光伏储 能 、 汽 车 类 、 数 据 中 心 以 及 工 业 类 应 用 的 季 度 收 入 环 比 分 别 增 长74%/55%/35%/30%，而消费电子应用环比则增长12%。2季度公司毛利 率为36. ...

abc 2024 年 08 月 13 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab 快评 万华化学 二季度净利润环比下滑3.4%，略低于我们预期 二季度实现净利润40.2亿元 公司上半年实现营业收入971亿元，同比增长11%；实现净利润81.7亿元， 同比下滑4.6%。其中二季度净利润同比/环比下滑11%/3.4%至40.2亿元， 略低于我们预期，我们认为主要由于：1）聚氨酯价差环比下降。我们测算 二季度MDI加权价差/TDI价差环比下滑4%/18%；且海外BC子公司上半年盈 利低于我们预期。2）石化板块景气度环比改善，但毛利率仍承压。3）新材 料板块虽销量同比/环比增长，但毛利率同比下滑5个百分点。4）公司上半 年期间费用率同比增长0.7个百分点至5.5%，另外所得税率同比增长5个百 分点至14%。 聚氨酯和石化景气度仍承压，销量小幅增长 二季度公司聚氨酯板块销售单价环比下滑2.6%，但销量环比增长5.3%，带 动板块收入环比增长2.6%。分产品来看，聚合MDI市场均价环比增长6%， 但纯MDI/TDI价格环比下滑7%/11%，且原材料苯/甲苯价格环比上 升7%/9%，拖累MDI加权 ...

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快评 华测检测 H124扣非净利润同比增长5%，落在此前业绩 预告中端 问：相对于预期，业绩表现如何？ 答：H124公司收入/扣非净利同比增9%/5%至27.9亿元/4.0亿元。Q224收入 同比增11%至16亿元，扣非净利同比增9%至2.9亿元，落在此前业绩预告 中端（此前业绩预告：H1扣非净利同比+4%~+6%），大致符合我们和市场 预期。Q224毛利率同比/环比提升1.6ppt/7.4ppt至52.7%，我们认为主要由 于：1）Q124基数较低；2）第三次土壤普查毛利率较普通环境检测略高； 和3）双碳、ESG、建工等板块毛利率有所提升。Q224扣非净利率同比下 降0.4ppt/环比提升8.7ppt至18.2%，我们认为环比大幅提升主要由于Q124 基数低。 问：业绩中最值得关注的是什么？ 答：分板块来看，生命科学（H1收入占比45%）：H1收入同比增长22%、 主要得益于第三次全国土壤普查的开展，毛利率同比改善1.4ppt至49.4%。 工业测试（H1收入占比20%）：H1收入同比增长14%，主要来自建工板 块、计量校准和认证（含双碳）业务的高速增长，毛利率同比提升2.5ppt 至45.5%。贸易保障（ ...

abc 2024 年 08 月 12 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab 快评 分众传媒 Q224业绩超预期，派发中期分红；预计自Q3 起环比进一步改善 Q2营收和净利超预期 尽管宏观经济复苏较慢，分众传媒在品牌广告领域持续表现出色。Q224营 收同比/环比增长10%/19%至32.4亿元，比我们的预期/Visible Alpha一致预 期高6%/5%。营收增速提升以及营业成本节省部分被营业费用增加所抵 消。因此，调整后净利润同比/环比增长7%/32%至12.5亿元，比我们的预 期/一致预期高6%/5%。按广告垂类划分，H1快消品同比增长14%，主要受 化妆品（+70%）、个护（+47%）、食品（+30%）的强劲增长推动，而乳 制品和酒类行业广告需求疲软。此外，家居建材和3C广告需求良好。管理 层指出，公司在获得国际品牌份额方面进展良好（H1收入同比+20%），因 改善了此类广告主分类的销售覆盖并加强了客户教育。 业绩后电话会主要亮点 1）Q3广告业务展望：管理层指出，夏季奥运会广告预算良好，叠加广告主 即将到来的中秋节/国庆假期预算，应会推动Q3广告收入环比增长。公司凭 借 ...