abc 2024 年 08 月 12 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab 快评 分众传媒 Q224业绩超预期，派发中期分红；预计自Q3 起环比进一步改善 Q2营收和净利超预期 尽管宏观经济复苏较慢，分众传媒在品牌广告领域持续表现出色。Q224营 收同比/环比增长10%/19%至32.4亿元，比我们的预期/Visible Alpha一致预 期高6%/5%。营收增速提升以及营业成本节省部分被营业费用增加所抵 消。因此，调整后净利润同比/环比增长7%/32%至12.5亿元，比我们的预 期/一致预期高6%/5%。按广告垂类划分，H1快消品同比增长14%，主要受 化妆品（+70%）、个护（+47%）、食品（+30%）的强劲增长推动，而乳 制品和酒类行业广告需求疲软。此外，家居建材和3C广告需求良好。管理 层指出，公司在获得国际品牌份额方面进展良好（H1收入同比+20%），因 改善了此类广告主分类的销售覆盖并加强了客户教育。 业绩后电话会主要亮点 1）Q3广告业务展望：管理层指出，夏季奥运会广告预算良好，叠加广告主 即将到来的中秋节/国庆假期预算，应会推动Q3广告收入环比增长。公司凭 借 ...

abc 2024 年 08 月 12 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab 中国股票策略 公募基金申赎：原因、资金流向与展望 股票策略 中国 主动管理类公募受制于历史表现，而被动管理类基金份额提升 近期公募基金被投资者赎回及其对A股市场的影响受到市场的关注。我们将 公募基金拆分成主动管理类基金（包括灵活配置型基金、偏股混合型基金和 普通股票型基金）和被动管理类基金（包括剔除ETF联接基金或指数增强基 金的被动指数型基金）这两类来进行分析。（1）主动管理类基金的总份额 在今年第一季度和第二季度分别减少了1367亿份（近十年来除2015年第三 季度以外的单季之最）和568亿份。历史上来看，主动类公募基金的回报表 现往往是其募资情况的领先指标。在过去的两年多的时间里，A股市场总体 呈下行态势，股票型和混合型公募基金自2022年初以来分别回调36% 和28%，遭受亏损的投资者可能不愿进一步将资金投入基金产品，甚至赎回 其持有的基金份额。（2）被动管理类基金的总份额在2024年上半年提 升2077亿份。其中，2024年第一季度被动基金的总规模大增3113亿元，为 历史单季最高水平。值得注 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Sell" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from Rmb10.90 to Rmb10.40 [4][5][17]. Core Views - The company's net profit for 1H24 was Rmb41 billion, down 4% year-on-year, which was below expectations from UBS and the market. The performance was primarily supported by fixed income investments, while core business revenues continued to decline [2][3]. - The fund distribution business saw a significant revenue drop of 29% year-on-year in 1H24, attributed to a decline in market share and trailing commission rates. The brokerage business also experienced a 10% year-on-year revenue decline, with market share expansion slowing [2][3]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on the fund distribution business due to multiple factors, including declining market share, reduced fees for public funds, and potential regulatory changes affecting trailing commission rates [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1H24 fund distribution revenue decreased by 29% year-on-year, with total fund sales amounting to Rmb8,514 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year. The market for newly issued funds grew by 25% year-on-year, primarily driven by bond funds [3]. - The brokerage business revenue fell by 10% year-on-year, underperforming the industry average decline of 8%. This was mainly due to a 4% drop in commission rates and slowing market share expansion [3]. - Net interest income increased by 7% year-on-year, with a slight market share gain in financing business [3]. Earnings Forecast - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down by 3-5% to reflect the lower-than-expected net profit for 1H24 [4]. - The target price adjustment reflects a valuation based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, implying a 17x P/E for 2025E [4]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading financial information service platform in China, with its "East Money" website being one of the most visited financial news sites [9]. - The online trading platform "Tiantian Fund" is noted as the largest fund management platform in China, approved by the CSRC as an independent third-party fund sales institution [9].

abc 2024 年 08 月 09 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab 快评 宏发股份 Q224业绩略超预期， 汽车板块市占率快速提升 问：相对于预期，业绩表现如何？ H124收入/归母净利72.3亿元/8.4亿元，同比+9/+15% H 1 2 4 收 入 / 归 母 净 利 润 占 我 们 此 前 预 期 5 1 / 5 5 % ， 占 一 致 预 期50/52%（过去5年平均：49/49%），业绩略超我们/市场预期 Q224营收/归母净利38/4.9亿元，同比+12/+22%（Q124: +6/+8%） Q224毛利率34.6%，同比下降1.4ppts（铜银涨价，但结构改善） Q224汇兑影响（汇兑损益+结汇）0.67亿元，Q223汇兑影响0.91亿元 问：业绩中最值得关注的是什么？ Q 2 2 4 家 电 / 汽 车 / 电 动 车 板 块 发 货 1 1 . 5 亿 元 / 5 . 7 亿 / 8 . 1 亿 ， 同 比+5/+51/+34%（受益市占率提升，汽车板块表现好于我们预期） Q224风光储板块发货发货2.4亿，同比持平（Q124同比-34%），公司 表 ...

ab 2024 年 07 月 25 日 Global Research and Evidence Lab | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | 全球宏观经济与策略 | 宏观经济 | | 美国大选：投资者最关注的10（+1）个问题 | | | | Jonathan Pingle 经济学家 | | 解惑投资者最关注的一系列问题 本报告中，我们对投资者最关心的一系列问题予以解答。对于每个问题，我 | jonathan.pingle@ubs.com +1-212-713 2225 | | 们会进行一页文字阐述，并附有几张图表。报告摘要见第2-3页，我们共回 答了10个主要问题以及一个附加问题。 十大问题如下： | Arend Kapteyn 经济学家 are ...

字幕由Amara.org社区提供 咱们先看一下这个画面是不是已经出来了看一下 哦有了已经有了好的看到咱们其实已经有已经也已经有朋友们来到咱们的直播间了好的那我们各位投资者朋友们大家早上好了今天是啊那其实以前平时我们大家都知道可能一般来说直播的时间可能是 各位线上的朋友大家早上好我是国特瑞易改革的经纪人马克非常高兴今天能够在线上跟大家做一个直播的交流 其实咱们一直熟悉咱们直播间的朋友们也会发现其实我们平时的直播主题很多比如说有像新能源包括比如说像白银有些固收的一些内容其实关于科技这一块的话其实确实相对来说比较少但是我们也发现其实我们的措辑者朋友们咱们看咱们直播的朋友们其实很多都非常关心近期科技的这样子的一个情况 那我们今天也是请到咱们马克总这边给我们对这个科技这个板块啊或者说这个芯片啊包括三立今天这个主题这些的内容啊做一些咱们做一些介绍咱们做个交流啊那么大家在观看直播同时也可以在评论区和我们去做一些互动包括留言有关信息的市场科技包括投资的各方面的问题也都欢迎大家去提问咱们家里马克总也会去一一的给大家去解答 那咱们屏幕左上角呢也可以关注咱们国策瑞营也不会去错过很多跟产品和行情相关的一些内容右下角呢也可以给咱们的直 ...

Industry and Company Analysis **1. Market Performance and Style Factors**: * **Momentum performed best in 1H24**: Momentum, Quality, and Size factors posted strong returns in June, with 12-month Momentum and Momentum Composite leading the gains. Value factors, however, suffered losses. * **Macroeconomic Factors**: The explanatory power of macro factors, particularly the USD Index, declined slightly. The US 10Y-2Y Spread saw an increase in explanatory power. * **Market Valuations**: Asia ex-Japan market valuations increased from 12.6x 12-month forward PE in May to 12.8x in June. Financials traded below their lower quartile of historical PE ranges, while IT and Materials traded above their upper quartile. **2. Quantitative Style Performance**: * **Momentum Composite**: The best performer YTD, up 22.2%. * **Quality**: Fundamental Growth and High Quality factors saw increases in valuations. * **Value**: Composite Value and Dividend Yield FS factors performed well. **3. Factor Descriptions**: * **Growth**: EPS Growth and Fundamental Growth. * **Momentum**: Momentum Composite, Price Momentum, and Revision to 12m fwd EPS FS. * **Quality**: High Quality and Delta Quality. * **Risk**: Low Price Beta and Low Volatility. * **Size**: Float Adjusted Market Cap. * **Value**: Composite Value, Earnings Yield FS, Dividend Yield FS, Book Value Yield, and FCF Yield. **4. Valuation Method and Risk Statement**: * The quantitative models rely on reported financial statement information, consensus earnings forecasts, and stock prices. * Errors in these numbers are sometimes impossible to prevent. * The models employ historical data to estimate the efficacy of stock selection strategies and the relationships among strategies, which may change in the future. **5. Required Disclosures**: * The document was prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. * UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. * Investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. **6. Analyst Certification**: * Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report certifies that all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner. **7. UBS Global Research Disclaimer**: * This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. * Any opinions expressed in this document may change without notice and are only current as of the date of publication. * Different areas, groups, and personnel within UBS may produce and distribute separate research products independently of each other.

Summary of UBS Global Wealth Management Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM) - **Industry**: US Stock Market and Investment Strategies Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: UBS GWM's top strategist, David Lefkowitz, advises caution for investors who have benefited from the recent market rally, although he believes it is not yet time to exit the market [3][5][7] 2. **S&P 500 Performance**: The S&P 500 has rebounded 11.1% since early May, with a year-to-date increase of 16.9%. UBS has raised its year-end target for the index to 5,500 and 5,700 in a bull scenario, up from previous targets of 5,200 and 5,500 [3][5] 3. **Equity Upside**: Despite the positive performance, UBS strategists do not foresee significant upside for equities, suggesting that most gains for the year are already realized [5][6] 4. **Earnings Growth**: Earnings are a critical driver of stock returns. Lefkowitz is closely monitoring second-quarter results, noting that early reports have been disappointing compared to the first quarter [12][14] 5. **Economic Conditions**: The US economy is experiencing a "soft landing," characterized by steady growth, a healthy labor market, and declining inflation towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target [7][9] 6. **Interest Rate Expectations**: If current conditions persist, the Fed may cut interest rates as early as September, with expectations for additional cuts later in the year [9][17] 7. **Risks to Growth**: Key risks include the potential for weaker-than-expected economic data and corporate earnings, which could disrupt the current favorable conditions [10][11] 8. **Market Concentration**: The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 now account for 38% of the index's market capitalization, indicating a narrow market breadth that could lead to volatility if these companies underperform [14][15] 9. **Investment Recommendations**: UBS GWM remains bullish on technology and industrial sectors due to spending in AI and infrastructure, while advising against investments in healthcare and small caps [22][23] 10. **Quality Stocks**: In uncertain environments, quality stocks are recommended as they tend to perform well in late-cycle conditions [23] 11. **Diversification Strategies**: Investors are encouraged to diversify with medium-term bonds and gold, with UBS GWM particularly favoring investment-grade bonds maturing in five to ten years [24][25] 12. **Gold Price Forecast**: Gold is expected to rise to $2,600 per ounce by the end of 2024, driven by geopolitical volatility and election risks [25][26] 13. **Political Impact**: The outcome of the US elections could significantly influence market conditions, with potential implications for Fed independence if Donald Trump is re-elected [28][29] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a prevailing uncertainty in the market ahead of the elections, which typically resolves post-election [20][21] - **Hedging Strategies**: Investors are advised to consider gold as a hedge against potential market disruptions, especially in light of political uncertainties [28][29]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 YES ab P Uow Be Sre d E b vy idence Lab Global Research and E 2v 4i d Jue nn ece 2 L 0a 2b 4 China Industrials Equities Industrial insights (June) — more negative signs China vs. May Industrial Robin Xu Analyst bin.xu@ubs.com More negative signals observed in June +86-21-3866 8872 We present key industrial data in our monthly China Industrials Chartbook. Positives for Phyllis Wang June include positive YoY growth in excavator sales, still-resilient container port Analyst through ...

ForUBSmarketingpurposes 全球家族 办公室报告 2024 CoverimagebyMaxRive.Takenwithadrone,it’sapanoramicviewoftheRomsdalenValley, 目录 a 60-kilometer long valley in western Norway. The photo is a metaphor for how the family office takes in a broad panorama before setting a strategic path towards its objective. 前言 4 Section4 44 ...