Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Dexus (DXS) with a 12-month price target of A$8.70, down from a previous target of A$9.02 [7][26]. Core Insights - Dexus is facing challenges including potential forced liquidation of the Dexus Bloc due to investor disputes, which could impact management fees and annual FFO [2][3]. - The company is also dealing with approximately A$3 billion in redemptions and delays in development projects, which may affect its financial outlook [3]. - Despite these headwinds, Dexus is viewed as a strong player in the office market recovery, benefiting from operational improvements and positive market sentiment [4]. Financial Summary - Forecasted net rental income is expected to decline from A$808 million in FY22 to A$686 million in FY25E, with further declines projected in FY26E [6][8]. - EBITDA is projected to decrease from A$868 million in FY22 to A$775 million in FY25E, reflecting a negative trend in profitability [6][8]. - The report anticipates a decline in FFO into FY26E, with a reduction in the FM EBIT multiple from 14x to 11x [3][5]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be around 11.2x for FY25E, with a sustainable dividend yield of 5.4% [4][9]. - The net asset value (NAV) per share is estimated to be A$8.80 for FY26E, indicating a discount to book value [9]. - The forecast stock return is estimated at 29.7%, combining price appreciation and dividend yield [10]. Company Overview - Dexus is a leading real asset manager with A$44 billion in third-party funds under management (FUM) and a balance sheet portfolio of approximately A$17 billion, primarily in office and industrial real estate [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Trip.com with a price target of US$76.00, while the current price is US$65.54 [7][26]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported 1Q25 revenues of Rmb13.8 billion, reflecting a 16.2% year-over-year increase, which was largely in line with expectations. The operating expenses were 3.9% below estimates, primarily due to reduced marketing spending, leading to a non-GAAP operating profit of Rmb4.0 billion and a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 29.2%, exceeding expectations [2][3]. - The company demonstrated strong performance across segments, with accommodation revenue rising by 23%, transportation by 8%, and corporate travel by 12% year-over-year. Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings have recovered to over 120% of pre-COVID levels, significantly outperforming the industry's international flight capacity recovery of 83.9% [3][4]. - Management remains optimistic about sustaining growth, supported by resilient demand and favorable policies, indicating confidence in the company's outlook [4][5]. Financial Metrics - Key financial metrics for 1Q25 include net revenue of Rmb13.8 billion, non-GAAP operating profit of Rmb4.0 billion, and non-GAAP net profit of Rmb4.2 billion, which exceeded consensus estimates by 2.2% and 9.2% respectively [6]. - Forecasted revenues for Trip.com are projected to grow from Rmb20.0 billion in 2022 to Rmb96.8 billion by 2029, with net earnings expected to increase from Rmb1.3 billion in 2022 to Rmb34.4 billion by 2029 [6]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong EBIT margin, projected at 28.2% for 2025, with a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 20.4% [6]. Market Position - Trip.com is positioned as a leading travel service provider in China and internationally, operating multiple brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company aims to generate 15-20% of total revenue from international businesses in the next three to five years [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Kogan.com with a price target of A$5.20, while the current price is A$4.52 as of May 19, 2025 [3][23]. Core Insights - Kogan.com is experiencing challenges in its second half of FY25, with a reported EBITDA of A$6.8 million for the first four months of 2025, which is below the consensus estimate of A$16 million for the second half [2][3]. - The company’s Mighty Ape segment has not yet recovered, and increased marketing expenditures are driving customer growth but negatively impacting earnings [2][3]. - The report anticipates a downward revision in consensus EBITDA expectations due to the lag in sales translating to gross profit [2]. Financial Highlights - Kogan's revenue projections show a decline from A$718 million in FY22 to an estimated A$507 million in FY25, with a gradual increase expected thereafter [6]. - The estimated diluted EPS for FY25 is A$0.14, with projections of A$0.22 for FY26 and A$0.26 for FY27 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a net cash position, with net debt projected to be A$12 million by FY25 [6]. Market Position - Kogan.com is recognized as Australia's largest pure-play online retailer, operating in a high-growth online retail market valued at approximately A$18 billion [10]. - The company has diversified its offerings beyond electronics into general merchandise, travel packages, mobile/internet plans, and insurance policies [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a blend of DCF and EV/EBITDA multiples for valuation, with an EV/EBITDA multiple projected to decrease from 47.8x in FY22 to 11.4x in FY25 [6][11]. - The forecasted stock return is estimated at 18.6%, combining a price appreciation of 15.0% and a dividend yield of 3.6% [9].

Investment Ratings - BHP: Neutral (CBE) with a price of A$38.75 [30] - Mineral Resources: Buy (CBE) with a price of A$24.08 [30] Core Insights - BHP is focusing on executing its organic copper and potash growth pipeline, increasing capex from $7 billion in FY23 to approximately $10 billion in FY25, and expects to maintain around $11 billion in the medium term [12] - The Jansen potash project is on track to deliver significant new volume growth, followed by copper projects in the 2030s [12] - Mineral Resources has appointed Malcolm Bundey as the new chair, indicating a strategic leadership change [13] - The Chinese economy is showing slower year-on-year growth, with retail sales growth down to 5.1% and industrial production growth at 6.1% [14] Summary by Sections Economic Headlines - Wall Street stocks finished flat due to weakened sentiment from Moody's downgrade [9] - China's economic activities moderated in April, with notable declines in property sales and new starts [14] Commodity Prices - Gold increased by 1.4% to $3,232/oz driven by safe haven demand [4] - Iron ore prices fell by 0.7% to $100/dmt amid weak Chinese economic data [3] - Copper rose by 0.6% to $4.33/lb due to a weaker dollar [4] Company Developments - Codelco has selected Rio Tinto as a partner for the Maricunga lithium project [6] - Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel, including $4 billion for a new mill [7] - Kodal anticipates receiving a permit soon to export 27,000 tons of stockpiled lithium from Mali [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to BHP with an unchanged price target of A$40 per share [4][5]. Core Insights - BHP is focusing on its organic growth pipeline for potash and copper, increasing capital expenditure from $7 billion in FY23 to approximately $10 billion in FY25, and expects it to stabilize around $11 billion in the medium term [1][3]. - The Jansen potash project is progressing well, with Stage 1 currently 66% complete and on track for first production by the end of CY26, while Stage 2 is 8% complete and targets production in FY29 [2][8]. - The Jansen project is expected to drive approximately 25% Group EBITDA growth through FY30, with an anticipated free cash flow of around $1.8 billion from FY33 at a potash price of $325 per ton [3][13]. Financial Overview - BHP's revenue projections show a decline from $65.1 billion in FY22 to an estimated $49.6 billion in FY25, with net earnings expected to drop from $21.3 billion in FY22 to $9.8 billion in FY25 [4][53]. - The Jansen project is projected to generate an internal rate of return (IRR) of approximately 11% with a net present value (NPV) of around $8 billion based on a 2025 look-forward basis [13][19]. - The operating costs for the Jansen project are estimated at $105-$120 per ton, with a capital intensity of $1,050 per ton for Stage 2, which is lower than Stage 1 [24][40]. Project Progress - The Jansen project is expected to add 8.5 million tons per annum (Mtpa) of potash to the market by the end of the decade, representing about 10% of global supply [2][3]. - Significant construction progress has been observed, particularly in the processing plant, with expectations for accelerated progress as seasonal conditions improve [11][7]. - BHP has maintained its capital expenditure guidance for the Jansen project despite inflationary pressures, with the first tonnes from Stage 1 targeted for late 2026 [8][39].

ab 16 May 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research The market is likely undervaluing the long-term value in NZ electricity retail, with household electricity prices capable of growing at +5% p.a. over the next 5 years, exceeding CPI. With the retail segment comprising ~30% of demand, this should benefit sector profitability, particularly for bundled (MCY) or low cost to serve (CEN) operators. However, we expect retail EBITDA margins to only gradually increase from -20% in FY25e back towards +4% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alcoa Corporation is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of A$50 based on a 5.0x NTM EV/EBITDA valuation [6][19] - BHP is also rated Neutral with a target price of A$39.19 [19] - Coronado Global Resources is rated Neutral with a target price of A$0.19 [19] Core Insights - The report highlights that the aluminum price outlook remains optimistic in the medium term, but bauxite prices are expected to stay low for an extended period [6] - The report indicates that the U.S. and China have significantly reduced reciprocal tariff rates, which may positively impact China's growth outlook [5] - The report notes that the coal market outlook is weakening, leading to a reassessment of Coronado Global Resources' operational and financial exposure [8] Summary by Sections Commodity Prices - Iron ore prices have slightly decreased by 0.6% to $102/dmt, with market focus on U.S.-China trade negotiations as a key driver of global growth [1] - Gold prices rebounded by 1.7% to $3,242 per ounce, benefiting from a weaker dollar and disappointing U.S. economic data [2] Company-Specific Insights - Alcoa Corporation's sensitivity to aluminum prices is highlighted, with recent aluminum price rebounds of approximately 25% [6] - BHP's CEO expressed satisfaction with the company's strong fundamentals and growth strategy, particularly regarding the Escondida project [7] - Coronado Global Resources is expected to face profit pressures, leading to a delay in long-term growth and capital expenditures [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Swiss Prime Site (SPS) with a price target of CHF104.00, while the current price is CHF113.90 [6][30]. Core Insights - Swiss Prime Site has undergone significant transformation over the past five years, focusing on a two-pillar strategy that has increased the earnings contribution from direct real estate from 45% to 87%, with EBITDA margins improving from 52% to 79% [4]. - The Swiss commercial real estate market shows a positive outlook, with prime yields widening to an attractive 200 basis points and low availability of office space in prime locations [3]. - The company has a robust acquisition pipeline of CHF600 million, expecting a rental income contribution of over CHF25 million, with most projects currently in due diligence [4]. Financial Metrics - The net rental income is projected to be CHF391 million for 2025, with EBITDA expected at CHF413 million [7]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is CHF3.57, with a dividend per share (DPS) of CHF3.45 [7]. - The company is trading at a 12% premium to its FY24 NAV, while the sector averages a 1% premium [11]. Growth Potential - SPS aims to grow its assets under management (AuM) from CHF13 billion to CHF16 billion by 2027, driven primarily by net contributions from pension funds [9]. - Management sees a potential for approximately 10% additional rent reversion across the portfolio, with new acquisitions expected to yield unlevered returns of 3.5-3.8% [10]. - The company anticipates around 10% growth in funds from operations (FFO) and similar dividend potential, maintaining a payout policy of 80-90% of FFO [10].

ab 16 May 2025 Global Research First Read Manawa Energy UBS SnapShot: FY25 Result VALUATION Our rating and PT for MNW are restricted. GUIDANCE No FY26 EBITDAF guidance provided. ONE LINER Tough operating environment through FY25, with no FY26 EBITDAF or DPS guidance provided, and all eyes now on acquisition by CEN. KEY NUMBERS Normalised EBITDAF (continuing operations) $91m (-42% YoY) vs cons $89m vs guidance $80m-$95m. Normalised NPAT $32m (-52% YoY) vs. cons $24m. Final DPS 0 cps vs. cons 5cps. RESULT HIG ...

Global Research ab 16 May 2025 First Read Alibaba Group 4QFY25 slight miss; thesis unchanged despite short-term margin fluctuation 4QFY25 slight missed Revenue +7% YoY, and adj. EBITA +36% YoY. Both missed by 1-2% (quick take). Key focuses This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 6. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its resea ...