证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Author] 分析师: 胡月晓 Tel: 021-53686171 E-mail: huyuexiao@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870510120021 分析师: 陈彦利 Tel: 021-53686170 E-mail: chenyanli@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870517070002 虽然 1 月份 CPI 和 PPI 延续了"双负"状态，且程度加深，但市场主流 预期并没有形成通缩深化的预期：2024 年 3 月份 CPI 同比增速（%）预 测分布区间为（-0.6,0.8），预期的中值和均值分别为 0.3 和 0.2，表 明消费价格回升是市场主流预期；主流预期认为 PPI 同比增速仍保持 平稳。我们一直认为，受基数效应影响，未来 CPI 同比数据或持续处 于低位运行状态，PPI 则延续降幅缓慢收窄态势。2 月份真实物价数据 公布后，市场整体对物价运行基准水平应有下移，但运行趋势（平稳 中缓回升）预期应保持不变。我们认为，中国消费价格有着较为明显 的季节性波动规律，从环比价格变动看，中国物价运行并未陷入通缩 态势，受基数效应影响，1 月 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on emerging industries and future industry opportunities, particularly in sectors such as AI, hydrogen energy, and quantum technology [6][7] - The report highlights the performance of various indices, with the CSI 300 Index showing a weekly increase of 0.63% and the ChiNext Index declining by 0.92% [6] - The report notes a significant increase in the dividend yield of top stocks, with Da'an Gene at 20.40% and COSCO Shipping at 17.88% [6] Industry Performance - The report indicates that the top-performing sectors for the week included Oil & Petrochemicals (5.15%), Nonferrous Metals (4.73%), and Electric Power & Utilities (3.61%) [6] - The convertible bond market showed mixed results, with the Utilities sector performing positively at 0.44%, while sectors like Healthcare and Energy saw declines of -1.22% and -1.92% respectively [6] Economic Indicators - The report discusses the recent trends in the labor market, noting that the U.S. ADP employment report for February showed an increase of 140,000 jobs, which was below expectations but higher than the revised previous value of 111,000 [6] - It also highlights improvements in trade data, with China's total import and export value reaching 6.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend sectors and technology sectors as key drivers of the current market rebound, recommending attention to specific sub-sectors such as AI models and commercial aerospace [7] - It advises on convertible bond allocations, particularly in "double low" sectors, indicating potential opportunities arising from price adjustments [7]

宏 观 数 据 ——2024 年 1-2 月外贸数据点评 1-2 月进出口双双回升，顺差扩张较快。出口方面，发达国家制造业景 气度多数回落，外需偏软，但出口仍然维持了强韧。从出口国别来 看，主要发达国家中除对日本出口下滑外，其余均保持了不同程度的 增长或改善。从出口商品来看，劳动密集型产品均保持了较快增长； 机电商品中除了手机和汽车外均有所回升，汽车高位回落，但仍维持 了 10%以上的增速。进口方面，从进口数量来看，主要进口商品增速 除原油、铜以外以下降为主。虽然大宗商品、原材料进口有所下降， 但机电产品增长加快，带动进口整体的回升。1-2 月由于出口回升幅度 更大，贸易顺差同比增长高达 20.5%，高顺差得以延续。 优势地位延续，高顺差得以保障 俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国 通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。 图 1 事件：1-2 月外贸数据公布 进口方面，从进口数量来看，主要进口商品增速除原油、铜 以外以下降为主；从进口金额来看，也表现以下降为主。虽然大 宗商品、原材料进口有所下降，但机电产品增长加快，带动进口 整体的回升。1-2 月由于出口回升幅度更大，贸易顺差同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [46]. Core Views - The company has a strong focus on the automotive stamping business, with a successful transition to body-in-white assembly driving significant revenue growth. The company achieved a revenue of 1.701 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 103.07% [44][70]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and diversifying its product offerings, particularly in body-in-white and integrated die-casting, which are expected to open new growth avenues [45][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Deepening Stamping Business - The company has a stable growth in Tier 1 customer sales, with new major clients being automotive manufacturers. The total orders on hand as of December 31, 2022, amount to 7.1 billion yuan for 2023-2025 [2][3]. - The company has successfully transitioned from stamping parts to body-in-white assembly, with significant revenue contributions from this segment [57][70]. 2. Competitive Landscape of Stamping Parts - The stamping parts market is expected to reach a scale of 240.7 billion yuan by 2025, with a stable growth outlook. The average number of stamped parts per vehicle is approximately 1,500 [76][78]. - The company is expanding its client base from Tier 1 suppliers to automotive manufacturers, enhancing its market position [2][3]. 3. Layout of Hot Stamping and Integrated Die-Casting - The company is investing in hot stamping technology, which enhances the crash performance of vehicle bodies and contributes to weight reduction [45][12]. - The Chengdu factory is expected to commence operations in April 2024, focusing on high-pressure aluminum die-casting, which will further enhance production capabilities [17][21]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.07 billion yuan, 4.43 billion yuan, and 6.09 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24.42X, 16.97X, and 12.32X [46][48].

半导体周期上行趋势逐渐明朗，CIS 或 证 券 将迎来新一波规格更新 研 究 ——电子行业周报（2024.03.04-2024.03.08） 报 [Table 增_R 持at （ing 维] [◼Ta bl核e_心Su观mm点a ry] 告 持） 市场行情回顾 [行Ta业bl:e _Indu电st子ry] 过去一周（03.04-03.08），SW电子指数上涨0.55%，板块整体跑赢沪 深 300 指数 0.35 pct，从六大子板块来看，光学光电子、电子化学品 日期: s 20h2z4q年da0t3e月m1a0r日k II、消费电子、元件、其他电子Ⅱ、半导体涨跌幅分别为-0.88%、- 1.22%、3.34%、5.43%、1.89%、-1.06%。 [T分ab析le师_A: utho马r]永 正 核心观点 Tel: 021-53686147 图像传感器：CIS市场规模已达140亿美元。3月4日，据芯智讯援引 E-mail: mayongzheng@shzq.com 半导体研究机构TechInsights公布的最新研究报告显示，虽然2023年 全球智能手机市场出现了同比下滑，但是在全球智能手机图像传感器 SAC ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 海外市场跟踪：需求偏软，通胀缓解 [日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 投资摘要 [Table_Author] 分析师: 胡月晓 Tel: 021-53686171 E-mail: huyuexiao@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870510120021 分析师: 陈彦利 Tel: 021-53686170 E-mail: chenyanli@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870517070002 发达国家制造业景气度回落 美国日本通胀持续回落 俄乌冲突、中东冲突等地缘政治事件恶化，国际金融形势改变；中国 通胀超预期上行，中国货币政策超预期变化。 录 | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | ...

开年纺服出口回稳向好，关注纺织制造 证 券 景气回升 研 究 ——轻工纺服行业周报（20240304-0308） 报 告 [Table 增_R 持at （ing 维] [◼Ta bl主e_要Su观mm点a ry] 持） 行情回顾：本周（2024.03.04-2024.03.08，下同），A股SW纺织服装 [行Ta业bl:e _Indu纺st织ry]服 饰 行业指数上涨 2.60%，轻工制造行业下跌 0.27%，而沪深 300 上涨 日期: s 20h2z4q年da0t3e月m1a0r日k 0.20%，上证指数上涨 0.63%。纺织服装和轻工制造在申万 31个一级 行业中涨幅排名分别为第5位和第16位。 [T分ab析le师_A: utho杜r]洋 Tel: 021-53686169 1）纺织服装：开年纺服出口回稳向好，亚玛芬体育 2023 年收入稳健 E-mail: duyang@shzq.com 增长。 SAC编号: S0870523090002 开年纺服出口回稳向好，行业景气度有望持续回升。据中国纺织品进 出口商会数据显示，按美元计，24 年 1-2 月，中国纺织服装累计出口 [最Ta近bl一e_年Qu行o ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% within the next six months [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.474 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.055 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.69%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.026 billion yuan, showing a growth of 22.73% [6][10]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.228 billion yuan, 1.458 billion yuan, and 1.731 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 16.40%, 18.68%, and 18.76% [10]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in its CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business, which generated revenue of 2.005 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.10% [12]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 11.474 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.888 billion yuan in 2026, with annual growth rates of 8.8%, 12.0%, 14.3%, and 15.0% respectively [9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 25.7% in 2023 to 28.4% in 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 9.2% to 10.3% over the same period [19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.90 yuan in 2023 to 1.47 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 14.82 to 9.03 [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the beauty care industry [7] Core Insights - The 38th Women's Day promotion has concluded, highlighting the performance of domestic brands [7][15] - The demand for sunscreen products continues to grow, with stable prices and new capacity being released [8][16] - The launch of Winona 2.0 marks a new era in sensitive skin care, focusing on comprehensive solutions [9][18] Summary by Sections 1. Main Insights - The 38th Women's Day promotion included two phases: Pre-sale from February 28 to March 3, and Renewal Week from March 4 to March 8. Promotions included direct discounts and cross-store reductions [7][15] - Li Jiaqi's beauty festival achieved a GMV exceeding 9 billion yuan, with domestic brands accounting for approximately 3.2 billion yuan, or 35.3% of the total [7][15] 2. Market Review - The beauty care industry index decreased by 2.24%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [20] - The individual stock performance showed significant fluctuations, with Kosi Co., Ltd. and others leading in gains, while brands like Proya and Huaxi Bio faced declines [24] 3. Industry News and Announcements - Kosi Co., Ltd. reported stable prices for sunscreen products and ongoing demand growth, with new production capacity expected to contribute positively in 2024 [8][16] - Winona's 2.0 strategy aims to enhance sensitive skin care solutions, introducing upgraded products with improved efficacy [9][18] - The company plans to expand internationally, starting with Southeast Asia in 2024 [9][19]

全球及国内投融资逐步恢复，两会定调医疗健 证 券 康行业全年工作任务 研 究 ——医药生物行业周报（20240304-0308） 报 [Table 增_R 持at （ing 维] [◼Ta bl主e_要Su观mm点a ry] 告 持） 2024M2 全球及国内医药生物投融资环境继续回暖。据动脉橙产业智 [行Ta业bl:e _Indu医 st药ry]生 物 库不完全统计，2024年2月，全球医疗健康领域共发生193起融资事 日期: s 20h2z4q年da0t3e月m0a9r日k 件（不包括 IPO、定向增发等），披露融资总额约 76 亿美元。其中， 国内市场共发生 60 起融资事件，披露融资总额约 9.25 亿美元；海外 [T分ab析le师_A: utho邓r]周 宇 市场共发生 133 起融资事件，披露融资总额超 66.75 亿美元。从交易 金额、融资事件数量及新兴领域专注度等方面环比 2024M1 全球医疗 Tel: 0755-23603292 健康产业的投融资情况，2024M2 投融资规模整体呈现上升趋势，总 E-mail: dengzhouyu@shzq.com 额环比上升约79.68%。在医药生物细 ...