证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 加快政策落地，避免前紧后松——4.30 未来几项重点工作。对于重点的经济工作，会议仍围绕扩大需求、产业转型、 改革开放、防风险和保民生几方面展开。此外，本次会议重新将绿色低碳放在 重要位置上。对于房地产领域的表态值得关注。本次会议淡化了"三大工程" 的表述，而将重点转向为"去库存"，这对于稳定房价下跌趋势从而改善居民 购房预期有重要的意义。我们认为此前房地产政策思路较为注重依靠"三大工 程"缓解房地产行业下行对上下游产业链的冲击；而现在保交房和去库存成为 重点工作，更加侧重于扭转房价下跌的趋势，从而改善行业本身前景。未来应 重点关注对于房地产"去库存"的方案设计和资金支持。此外值得关注的是， 本次会议重新将"绿色低碳"提上重点工作。我们认为有两层含义，一是当前 能源短缺的问题已经基本解决，部分行业产能过剩，可能未来会以碳减排为契 机深化供给侧改革。二是用减碳政策推动新能源的发展，加快绿电普及，对新 能源行业较为利好。总体而言，我们认为本次会议对市场的影响较为中性，没 有强调增量政策，但也指出了"避免前紧后松"，整体维持原有的方向。对于 房地产的新思路以及碳 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in Q1, exceeding market expectations and the annual growth target, boosting confidence in economic prospects[6] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on April 30 emphasized a positive evaluation of the current economic situation, highlighting increased positive factors and sustained momentum[6] Policy Direction - The overall policy tone remains "seeking progress while maintaining stability," with a focus on effectively implementing existing macro policies rather than introducing new ones[7] - Fiscal policy will accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to ensure economic support, while monetary policy may see further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates[7][8] Key Focus Areas - Future economic work will concentrate on expanding demand, industrial transformation, reform and opening up, risk prevention, and ensuring people's livelihoods[9] - The meeting placed renewed emphasis on green and low-carbon initiatives, indicating a shift towards carbon reduction and promoting renewable energy development[17] Real Estate Sector - The focus has shifted from the "three major projects" to "de-stocking" in the real estate sector, which is crucial for stabilizing falling housing prices and improving homebuyer expectations[16] - Policies will prioritize ensuring housing delivery and addressing the new dynamics of supply and demand in the real estate market[16] Risk Considerations - Risks include the possibility of macro policies being less forceful than expected and the ongoing downward trend in the real estate sector[3][18]

证券研究报告 [|T a行ble业_F深ir度st ] [Table_Main] 氢能爆发，基建先行，储运设备国产化 [电Tab气le_I设nve备st] 评级： 看好 进程几何? 日期： 2024.04.22 报告要点 [分Ta析bl师e_ A蔡ut紫ho豪r] 登记编码：S0950523070002 氢能战略成为共识，政策推动氢能源爆发。2022年全球氢气的消费量约9500 ： caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 万吨。为了实现碳中和目标，预计2050年全球氢气市场将扩张到5~8亿吨。 分析师 张鹏 其中绿氢将从占比不足1%变为主流。各国积极制定氢能战略，其中欧洲制定 登记编码：S0950523070001 2030年2000万吨的需求目标最为激进。 ： 18373169614 氢的储运是现阶段的产业卡点。当前全球氢能绝大部分是灰氢，灰氢的生产 ： zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 和使用在一个地方，仅有少量氢通过管线车等方式运输，所以没有一个成体 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/4/19 系的氢能输送网络。而绿氢的生产主要集中在风光资源充沛的地区，生产和 5% 使 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electronics industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The electronics sector experienced a decline in the first half of April 2024, with the Shenwan Electronics Index dropping by 4.91% [1] - Huawei's Pura 70 series was launched on April 18, 2024, with expectations to sell over 10 million units in 2024, positioning it as a major competitor to Apple's iPhone 15 and 16 series [6][8] - Global semiconductor sales reached $46.2 billion in February 2024, marking a 16.3% year-on-year increase, although a slight month-on-month decline of 3.1% was noted [10] Summary by Sections 1. Huawei Pura 70 Launch - Huawei's Pura 70 series includes four models priced from 5,499 to 9,999 yuan, featuring advanced camera technology and satellite communication capabilities [6][8] - The Ultra version boasts a 50MP camera with a 1-inch sensor and advanced AI features, aiming for significant market penetration [6][8] 2. Industry News - NVIDIA's new Blackwell platform is expected to drive a 150% increase in TSMC's CoWoS capacity in 2024 [10] - The semiconductor industry is projected to continue its growth trajectory throughout 2024, driven by new AI applications and technologies [10] 3. Company Dynamics - BOE Technology Group reported a revenue of 174.54 billion yuan in 2023, a slight decline of 2.17%, but anticipates a strong recovery in Q1 2024 with a projected net profit of 0.8 to 1 billion yuan [14] - Longying Precision expects a significant increase in revenue in Q1 2024, driven by the recovery in consumer electronics and new projects [14]

[Table_Main] [商Tab业le_I贸nve易st] 小商品城（600415.SH）2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报点评 评级： 持有 主营业务持续增长，线上第二曲线渐入佳境 日期： 2024.04.22 事件描述 [分Ta析bl师e_ A何ut晓ho敏r] 登记编码：S0950523110001  事件：公司发布2023年年度报告和2024年一季度报告。公司 2023 ： （021）61392631 年实现总营收113亿元，同比增长 48.3%；毛利率 26.5%，同比增 ： hexiaomin@wkzq.com.cn 加11.2个百分点；净利率23.7%，同比增加 9.25个百分点；归母 净利润26.8亿元，同比增长142.2%；扣除由于减租等因素影响的 [公Ta司bl基e_本Ba数se据] 2024/4/19 非经常性损益后，扣非净利润为 24.7 亿元，同比增长 39.9%。 总股本（万股） 548,433.42 2024Q1 公司实现收入 26.8 亿元，同比增长 26.4%；归母净利润 流通A股/B股(万股) 548,433.42 7.1 亿元，同比减少 41.7%。公司 202 ...

证券研究报告 [|T a行ble业_F深ir度st ] [Table_Main] 氢能爆发，基建先行，储运设备国产化 [电Tab气le_I设nve备st] 评级： 看好 进程几何? 日期： 2024.04.22 报告要点 [分Ta析bl师e_ A蔡ut紫ho豪r] 登记编码：S0950523070002 氢能战略成为共识，政策推动氢能源爆发。2022年全球氢气的消费量约9500 ： caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 万吨。为了实现碳中和目标，预计2050年全球氢气市场将扩张到5~8亿吨。 分析师 张鹏 其中绿氢将从占比不足1%变为主流。各国积极制定氢能战略，其中欧洲制定 登记编码：S0950523070001 2030年2000万吨的需求目标最为激进。 ： 18373169614 氢的储运是现阶段的产业卡点。当前全球氢能绝大部分是灰氢，灰氢的生产 ： zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 和使用在一个地方，仅有少量氢通过管线车等方式运输，所以没有一个成体 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/4/19 系的氢能输送网络。而绿氢的生产主要集中在风光资源充沛的地区，生产和 5% 使 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the electrical equipment sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The commercialization of low-altitude economy is accelerating, with cargo drones and manned eVTOLs expected to be the first to realize this potential. The government is actively promoting the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry, which is anticipated to gradually commercialize due to policy support and advancements in battery technology [2][3]. - High energy density batteries are crucial for the development of low-altitude economy applications, with battery manufacturers actively investing in related products. For instance, CATL has launched a condensed state battery with a maximum single-cell energy density of 500 Wh/kg [2][4]. - The industrialization of semi-solid state batteries is expected to promote the iteration and upgrade of the ternary battery system. The semi-solid state battery, which includes solid electrolytes, is seen as a complement to the current liquid battery system, enhancing safety and matching high energy density systems [2][3]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other governmental bodies, has issued a plan for the innovative application of general aviation equipment from 2024 to 2030, aiming for the commercial application of new types of aviation lithium batteries with energy densities of 400 Wh/kg by 2027 and validation of 500 Wh/kg batteries [1]. - The launch of the first-generation ultra-fast charging solid-state battery by Zhiji Auto, featuring a nano-scale solid electrolyte, marks a significant advancement in battery technology [1]. Industry Insights - The low-altitude economy is characterized by its efficiency and convenience, with ongoing developments in battery technology expected to facilitate its commercialization. Recent achievements include the issuance of the first production license for eVTOLs and the initiation of trial operations for drone delivery routes [2]. - Battery companies are focusing on high energy density and safety features, with notable products like the 320 Wh/kg power battery aimed at the eVTOL market being introduced [2]. Technological Developments - The introduction of semi-solid state batteries, which incorporate solid electrolytes, is anticipated to enhance the safety and performance of high nickel batteries, indicating a promising market for these technologies as they evolve [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - In 2023, Chinese copper companies experienced significant mergers and acquisitions, leading to a rapid increase in production, while overseas companies maintained stable operations [2][6] - The average cost of copper production for companies increased by over 15% in 2023 due to various factors including declining ore grades and inflation [2][13] - The report highlights a divergence in strategies between Chinese and overseas copper companies, with Chinese firms being more aggressive in mergers and acquisitions, while overseas firms focus on shareholder returns and operational efficiency [26] Summary by Sections Production and Resources - In 2023, the total equity production of 22 global copper companies was 11.94 million tons, accounting for approximately 53% of the market share [1][6] - Chinese copper companies showed a production increase of 10.2% year-on-year, while overseas companies experienced a decline of 2.8% [7][10] - Major acquisitions in China included Zijin Mining and Minmetals Resources, which added 142.78 thousand tons and 630 thousand tons of resources, respectively [2][6] Financial Performance - The average return on equity (ROE) for top companies like BHP and Southern Copper was around 20%, while Chinese companies had a significantly lower average ROE of 4.3% [3][16] - The average C1 cost for copper production was reported at $1.8 per pound, reflecting a 24% increase year-on-year [13][15] - Chinese companies had an average sales cost of 34,000 yuan per ton, which was a 19% increase compared to the previous year [15] Market Outlook - The 2024 production guidance for 21 copper companies indicates a total expected output of 13.98 million tons, representing a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with Chinese companies expected to contribute the majority of this growth [10][12] - The report anticipates that the long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive due to supply uncertainties and increasing demand [25][26] - The average PE ratio for overseas copper companies is projected to be 18x, while for Chinese companies it is 14x, indicating a valuation gap [21][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a new high in March, with Xiaomi's first car launch attracting attention [6][35] - The lithium market shows signs of recovery with production expected to improve, while cobalt prices are supported by strong holding sentiment [5][11] - The demand for new energy vehicles is anticipated to gradually recover in Q2 2024, driven by a new round of price competition [6][25] Summary by Sections 01 New Energy Industry Trend Commentary - The lithium supply is recovering as weather improves, while demand remains cautious due to high prices [5] - The new energy vehicle market saw significant growth in March, primarily due to a price war that boosted penetration rates [6] 02 Industry Dynamics & Data Tracking - **Energy Metals**: Lithium prices are supported by recent auction prices from Australian mines, while cobalt prices are stable due to strong holding sentiment [5][11] - **Battery and Materials**: The retail sales of new energy vehicles in March are expected to reach approximately 750,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.1% [5][25] - **New Energy Vehicles**: The market share of new energy vehicles reached 30.1% in February, with significant year-on-year declines in production and sales [25][30] - **Photovoltaic/Wind Power**: The domestic installation and export data for photovoltaic components showed positive trends, indicating a potential industry bottom [7] - **Energy Storage/Grid**: The domestic energy storage installation is expected to exceed expectations in 2024, with various technologies gaining traction [8] - **Electric Power**: The 2024 energy work guidance suggests a target of 250 GW of new power generation capacity, focusing on renewable energy integration [9] Appendix - **Industry Index Performance**: The performance of various industry indices shows fluctuations, with energy metals experiencing a decline [73][75] - **Market Review**: The energy metals and battery sectors have seen varied performance, with some segments under pressure while others show resilience [75][79]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for lithium prices to be overly pessimistic, suggesting that the bottom for lithium prices may not be as low as previously thought [1][12] - It highlights that the cost support for lithium carbonate has shifted downwards, with a focus on the cost structures of various mining companies [6][9] - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of rising mining costs due to declining ore grades and the transition from open-pit to underground mining [9][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Lithium Price Outlook - The report indicates that the cost support for lithium carbonate has historically been around 80,000 RMB, but this is expected to decrease in Q4 2023 [6] - Australian mining companies are projected to see a continued decline in cash costs, with specific companies showing significant reductions in AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost) from Q3 to Q4 2023 [7][8] Section 2: Market Dynamics - Concerns about lithium prices dropping too low stem from historical patterns observed in the 2019-2020 cycle, where prices fell significantly while production continued [12][33] - The report categorizes Australian mining companies into two groups based on their operational strategies during downturns, affecting their production decisions [12][33] Section 3: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The report notes that supply-demand mismatches are inherent in the industry, driven by different release times of production capacities [40] - It points out that global lithium mining companies have begun to reduce capital expenditures in response to falling lithium prices, indicating a shift in investment strategies [42][44] Section 4: Future Investment Trends - The report predicts that lithium mining companies will significantly slow down their investment pace over the next two years due to the rapid decline in lithium prices [44][48] - It also highlights that the quality of capital expenditures in overseas companies may not be high, with some companies relying heavily on outsourcing for production increases [48][50]