医 药行业周报 (7.22-7.26) 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 表 目 录 稳 健组 合： 恒瑞医药(600276)、 达仁堂(600329)、华 润三九(000999)、济 川药 业 (600566)、 贝 达 药 业(300558)、 华 东 医 药(000963)、 恩 华 药 业(002262)、 长 春 高 新 太极集团（600129）：中药高速增长，毛利率持续提升 表 4：上周科创板组合表现情况 本周医药生物指数下跌 4.02%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.35 个百分点，行业涨跌幅排名第 28。2024 年初以来至今，医药行业下跌 23.26%，跑输沪深 300 指数 22.62 个百分点，行 业涨跌幅排名第 26。 精选医药三大方向 [Table_Author] 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：阮雯 执业证号：S1250522100004 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：rw@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 5 风险提示 1.1 当前行业投资策略 数据来源：Wind，西南证券 ...

[2024 Table_IndustryInfo 年 07 月 27 日 ] 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（7.22-7.26） 精选医药三大方向 [行情回顾： Table_Summary 本周医药生物指数下跌 ] 4.02%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.35 个百分 点，行业涨跌幅排名第 28。2024 年初以来至今，医药行业下跌 23.26%，跑 输沪深 300 指数 22.62 个百分点，行业涨跌幅排名第 26。本周医药行业估值 水平(PE-TTM)为 23 倍，相对全部 A 股溢价率为 75.10% (-0.02pp)，相对剔 除银行后全部 A 股溢价率为 30.79%(-0.04pp)，相对沪深 300 溢价率为 107.29% (-0.01pp)。本周相对表现最好的是医疗研发外包和医药流通，均下 跌 1.1%。 特例单议机制利好创新药耗。2024 年 7 月 23 日，国家医保局发布《按病组 和病种分值付费 2.0 版分组方案并深入推进相关工作的通知》。此次 2.0 版本 提出特例单议机制，对因住院时间长、医疗费用高、新药耗新技术使用、复杂 危重症或多学科联合诊 ...

点评：从措施要点来看，一是，降低超长期特别国债资金申报门槛，不再设置"项目总 投资不低于 1 亿元"要求，支持中小企业设备更新。长期以来，资金短缺一直是制约中小企 业发展的瓶颈之一，此次政策调整，为有技术、有市场、有潜力的中小企业提供了宝贵的资 金支持机会，有助于它们加快设备更新、技术升级，进而提升市场竞争力，促进整个产业链 的协同发展；二是，提高设备更新贷款财政贴息比例，更新车龄 8 年及以上的新能源公交车 及动力电池，平均每辆车补贴 6 万元，对符合《关于实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策的通知》 条件经营主体的银行贷款本金，中央财政贴息从 1 个百分点提高到 1.5 个百分点，贴息期限 2 年，贴息总规模 200 亿元，有助于加大中央财政支持力度；三是，明确资金渠道，国家发 展改革委牵头安排 1480 亿元左右超长期特别国债大规模设备更新专项资金，用于落实通知 1.2 海外：拜登退出美国大选，美国二季度 GDP 超预期 点评：拜登退出美国大选或出于三方面原因，一是身体健康问题，此前不久白宫医生表 示，基因测序确定，拜登感染的新冠病毒变种是 KP.2.3；二是民主党内部也存在分裂，许多 重量级人物通过媒体、幕后 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 28 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0722-0728） 安徽首款人形机器人发布，Optimus 2026 年对外销售 [Table_Summary] 行情回顾：本周（7月 22日-7月-28日）机器人指数跑输大盘。中证机器人指 数下跌 3.5%，跑输上证指数 0.4个百分点，跑赢沪深 300指数约 0.2个百分点， 跑赢创业板指约 0.3个百分点；国证机器人指数下跌 5.8%，跑输上证指数 2.7 个百分点，跑输沪深 300指数约 2.1个百分点，跑输创业板指约 2.0个百分点。 特斯拉有望于 2026 年大规模生产人形机器人 Optimus并对外出售。7 月 22 日马斯克在推特上发文透露，特斯拉 2025 年将生产出"真正有用"的机器人 供公司内部使用，但仅仅是小规模生产。2026 年，特斯拉有望大规模生产人 形机器人，供其他公司使用。去年 12 月特斯拉发布 Optimus 二代，相比前代 产品，其改进包括如下方面：1）采用了全部由特斯拉自主设计和制造的执行 器和传感器；2）整体外观设计更加精细 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating expected returns above the market average over the next six months [1][10]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to see marginal improvements in its business climate due to a series of supportive policies aimed at promoting large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods [2]. - Key policies include a 1.5% interest subsidy on loans for eligible businesses and a commitment of approximately 300 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds to support equipment updates [2]. - Central enterprises are projected to invest over 3 trillion yuan in large-scale equipment updates over the next five years, emphasizing the importance of technological advancement and cost-effectiveness in procurement [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Support - The report highlights the continuous enhancement of policies supporting equipment updates, including the recent announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance [2]. - The focus is on optimizing support for small and medium-sized enterprises by removing the previous investment threshold of 100 million yuan for projects [2]. Beneficiary Sectors - The report identifies several sectors within the mechanical equipment industry that are likely to benefit from these policies: - High-demand and sustainable railway equipment sector, including companies like ThinkRail Control and CRRC [2]. - The machine tool sector, with companies such as Neway CNC and Haitan Precision [2]. - Forklift sector with significant export potential, including Noli and Anhui Heli [2]. - Injection molding machine sector, featuring companies like Yizhim and Haitian International [2]. - Engineering machinery sector, which is showing signs of recovery, including companies like LiuGong and SANY Heavy Industry [2]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for many firms within the industry [3]. - For instance, ThinkRail Control is projected to have an EPS of 1.45 yuan in 2024 with a PE ratio of 14, while SANY Heavy Industry is expected to achieve an EPS of 0.70 yuan with a PE of 23 [3].

2024Q2持仓分析 医药持仓占比新低 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年7月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：张殊豪 执业证号：S1250524030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：zhshh@swsc.com.cm 从公募基金持仓来看 1 24Q2全部公募基金占比10.16%，环比-0.97pp；剔除主动医药基金占比6.5%，环比-0.86pp；再剔 除指数基金医药持仓占比4.96%，环比-0.64pp；申万医药板块市值占比为6.54%，环比-0.41pp。 从公募基金持仓家数来看，从公募基金持仓家数来看，公募基金数量前五的分别是迈瑞医疗(534家)、 恒瑞医药(401家)、科伦药业(191家)、惠泰医疗(121家)、药明康德(107家)；基金数量增加前五的股票 分别是：诺泰生物(+49家)、鱼跃医疗(+35家)、迈瑞医疗(+34家)、博瑞医药(+34家)、英科医疗(+31 家)、上海医药（+31家）、新和成（+31家）、艾力斯（+30家）。 从公募基金持仓占比情况来看，1）持仓占流通股比例 ...

电子行业2024年中期投资策略 复苏转繁荣宜捂股，布局端侧+中上游 西南证券研究发展中心 电子研究团队 2024年7月 回顾年初2024年电子行业10点预测 针对我们年初对2024年电子行业做出的10点预测进行简要回顾 1、中报业绩以大票超预期为主，风格从年中如期回归均衡——"电子行业投资在2024年上半年以供给推动为 主，小盘和成长风格占优，2024年下半年供需共振，风格回归均衡" 2、iPhone AI的预期拉动消费电子板块交易已经从复苏如期切换至繁荣预期——"全球消费电子半导体库存将 于24Q1降低至历史平均以下，补库重启，周期从复苏切换至繁荣" 3、工业补库行情从4月如期开始——"全球工业和汽车半导体库存将于24Q1见顶，工业和汽车半导体从萧条 切换至复苏" 4、SMIC、华虹Q2如期开始见底涨价，但距离传导至上游材料和零部件仍需时间——"半导体代工将于24Q1 见底，国产化率更低、集中度更低的半导体材料和零部件将跑赢设备" 5、Q3存储价格将持续上涨，NAND涨幅或有所回落——"存储价格24H1以震荡为主，2024下半年将进入右 侧上涨趋势" 6、SMIC和英特尔均上调2025年资本开支预期——"全 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 14.84 yuan for the next 6 months [4] Core Views - The company is a leader in the primary lithium battery sector, with significant growth in revenue and net profit in Q1 2024 due to economies of scale and falling lithium prices [4] - The company has achieved industry-leading automation levels in its production lines, with a production speed of 120PPM, enhancing product stability and competitiveness [2] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with a 473.8% YoY increase in net profit in Q1 2024 [4] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 346.38 million yuan in 2023 to 677.43 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.2% from 2019 to 2023 [4][19] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 53.30 million yuan in 2023 to 155.37 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.77% from 2023 to 2026 [4] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 11.63% in 2023 to 20.83% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [4] Industry Overview - The global primary lithium battery market grew from $1.53 billion in 2013 to $2.54 billion in 2022, with the Chinese market expanding from 3.02 billion yuan to 6.26 billion yuan during the same period [14] - Lithium manganese batteries account for 49% of the global primary lithium battery market, with a projected CAGR of 2.3% from 2020 to 2025 [56] - The IoT market is expected to grow from $320.9 billion in 2022 to $1.56 trillion by 2032, driving demand for lithium manganese batteries [41] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is one of the largest domestic producers of cylindrical lithium manganese batteries, with a market share of approximately 3.0% globally [104] - The top eight lithium manganese battery manufacturers account for about 60% of the global market, indicating a stable competitive landscape [104] - The company's market share in China increased from 44.9% in 2019 to 48.4% in 2022, reflecting a slight improvement in market concentration [25] Technological Advancements - The company has developed high-reliability lithium-manganese and lithium-iron sulfide batteries, achieving international leading levels in battery performance [27] - The company has optimized its production processes, such as the use of a unique electrolyte formula, to enhance product consistency and material efficiency [27] - The company's automation improvements have significantly increased production efficiency, with a single winding machine achieving a speed of 15PPM [2] Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its production capacity with a new project expected to add 180 million units of lithium battery production annually, addressing current capacity constraints [110] - The lithium iron battery market has significant growth potential, with the company positioned to benefit from the replacement of traditional zinc-manganese batteries [84] - The IoT and smart meter markets are expected to drive demand for lithium manganese batteries, with the smart water meter market projected to reach 43.4 billion yuan by 2030 [94] Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks from fluctuating raw material prices, particularly lithium, which could impact profitability [85] - Intensifying competition in the lithium manganese battery market, especially in emerging applications, could pressure the company's market share [85] - The company is exposed to risks from technological advancements in alternative battery chemistries, which could reduce demand for its products [86]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company's lithium battery business showed strong growth in the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching approximately 1.106 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78.71% [2]. - The company aims to ship 1.5 billion units in the third quarter, indicating a steady increase in output [2]. - The overall revenue for the first half of 2024 was nearly 3.065 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.19%, with a net profit of 167 million, up 301.74% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to achieve annual shipments between 400 million and 450 million units, as inventory levels normalize and demand from the power tool sales season increases [4]. - New application scenarios such as BBU modules, eVTOL, and AI robots are expected to support the expansion of the overall market capacity [5]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 3.065 billion in the first half of 2024, with a net profit of 167 million, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.636 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.44%, with a net profit of 97 million, up 36.78% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 442 million, 554 million, and 680 million respectively, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [6]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5.221 billion in 2024 to 9.728 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing significantly [7]. Market Outlook - The company is expanding its overseas production capabilities, particularly in Malaysia, to cater to sensitive overseas clients and the Southeast Asian electric motorcycle market [19]. - The LED and metal logistics businesses are also performing well, with LED revenue reaching approximately 751 million in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.7% [19].

创新药出海专题 国际化渐入佳境，洞悉出海潜力管线 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年7月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：汤泰萌 执业证书：S1250522120001 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：ttm@swsc.com.cn 核 心 观 点 ◆ 创新药出海的内在逻辑：医疗支出差距、药品价格差距、药品峰值差距和快速回笼资金 . 我们认为，创新药出海的内在逻辑包括以下三点：第一，中美医疗支付能力差距显著，海外市场空间巨大；第二，创新 药在国际市场上的售价通常更高，中美药品销售药品峰值存在巨大差异；第三，首付款快速回笼资金，解决企业燃眉之 急，并加速推进海外临床试验。 ◆ 创新药出海的三要素：市场空间大，疗效和安全性优势、先发优势 . 市场空间巨大，可有效解决未满足的临床需求。市场空间的潜力是MNC最在意的问题，如强生携手传奇生物共同推进西 达基奥仑赛的商业化，强生预计西达基奥仑赛全球销售额有望达50亿美元。 . 临床有效性及安全性较目前标准疗法优势明显。药物的临床疗效和安全性优势是药品拓展市场的关键 ...