乳腺癌:两大百亿单品领衔,细分市场异彩纷呈 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年7月 分析师:杜向阳 执业证号:S1250520030002 电话:021-68416017 邮箱:duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师:王彦迪 执业证号:S1250524040001 电话:021-68416017 邮箱:wydi@swsc.com.cn 乳腺癌:两大百亿单品领衔,细分市场异彩纷呈 乳腺癌全球第一大瘤种行业高度关注,头部药企抓主流大靶点,细分市场机遇丰富。2020年全球乳腺癌新发病例226万例,系当年全球新发病例 最多的瘤种。2021年全球乳腺癌药物市场规模345亿美元。我们认为新一代HER-2 ADC、CDK4/6抑制剂具备百亿大单品潜质。此外创新靶点 ADC及其联合治疗、下一代内分泌疗法、AKT抑制剂等多个细分市场存在丰富机遇。 从临床指南看乳腺癌药物 1 1)HER-2阳性乳腺癌:从曲妥珠单抗到HER-2 ADC。曲妥珠单抗全面覆盖晚期一线至早期新辅助治疗,二十余年临床数据傍身,临床地位稳固 。以德曲妥珠单抗(DS-8201a)为代表的HER-2 ADC已在晚期二线建立优势,未来有望成为百亿级别大单品。HE ...

家电行业2024年中期投资策略 百舸争流千帆竞 出海扬帆奋者先 西南证券研究发展中心 家电研究团队 2024年7月 核 心 观 点 回顾2024H1: 2024年,以旧换新政策的陆续出台有效提振了家电内销需求;海外市场方面,补库需求持续带动外销增长 ,根据产业在线数据,2024年1-5月空调、冰箱、洗衣机内销量分别同比增长11.2%、7%、3.7%,外销量分 别同比增长27.4%、25.3%、23.2%。家电企业开始有意识的从制造优势向品牌运营管理优势延展,OBM业务 发展迅速。从成本端来看,铜、铝、ABS等大宗原材料价格均有所上涨,海运受红海战争影响存在运力紧张及 运费上涨的情况。 在经济环境承压的大背景下,家电企业表现亮眼。 市场风格方面,年初开始在红利风格影响下,配合家电行业扎实的基本面表现,家电行业涨幅亮眼。进入 2024年5月后,市场开始对原材料涨价、库存、外销基数等方面产生担心,家电行业估值有所回落。 展望2024H2: 从全年来看,"以旧换新"政策对全年家电消费形成需求支撑,根据发改委数据,1-5月主要电商平台家 电以旧换新销售额增长超过80%,出口方面虽然增速放缓,但相较于内销而言依然更加乐观 ...

电生理三维手术量增速超预期；房颤手术国产压力导管销量超预期；冷冻消融产品放量 超预期；集采价格下降可控以及量增超预期。 估值和目标价格 创新技术与产品的研发风险、核心技术人才流失风险、经营渠道管理风险、出海不及预 期风险。 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 目 录 | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 图 1: 公司发展历程. 图 2: 公司股权结构. | | | 图 3: 电生理手术基本原理 | | | 图 4: 2015-2024E 中国快速性心率失常患者电生理手术量 | | | 图 5: 2017-2032E 国内电生理器械市场规模… | | | 图 6: 2015-2023 年中国 65 岁以上人口（百万人）及占比… | | | 图 7: 2015-2022 年中国人均居民卫生支出（元）. | | | 图 8: 2015-2024E 中国心房颤动惑病人数 | ...

Lululemon(LULU.O): 独创社群营销,拓展多品类发展 西南证券研究发展中心 社服研究团队 2024年7月 核 心 观 点 基本面:公司稳坐瑜伽健身行业龙头,运动服装行业的黑马。1)业绩亮眼,营收增速快于竞争者。公司在 女性瑜伽细分赛道上深耕,通过锁定中高端年轻消费群体,推动带有社交属性的社群营销方式,让公司在 2017-23年的营收复合增速达24%,远超出Nike的6.8%和Adidas的2.1%,并超越Under Armour成为全 球第4大运动品牌。2)深耕自营模式,线下线上齐发力。受益于客单价和流量的双提升,2023公司线下/ 线上营收同比增长20.8%/17%,占比分别为46%/45%,呈现齐头并进态势。3)在兼顾北美市场同时,快 速布局中国市场。公司在中国市场的一二线城市大力开设线下直营店,在三四线城市主攻线上DTC模式; 从2020-23年,中国市场的营收复合增速高达55.6%,将成为下个主力市场。4)综合来看,2023公司盈 利能力提升、费用率维持稳定。受运输成本下降的影响,毛利率+2.9pp至58.3%;由于用人成本增加及市 场投入加大,SG&A费用率同比+1.3pp至35.3% ...

Lululemon(LULU.O): 独创社群营销,拓展多品类发展 西南证券研究发展中心 社服研究团队 2024年7月 核 心 观 点 基本面:公司稳坐瑜伽健身行业龙头,运动服装行业的黑马。1)业绩亮眼,营收增速快于竞争者。公司在 女性瑜伽细分赛道上深耕,通过锁定中高端年轻消费群体,推动带有社交属性的社群营销方式,让公司在 2017-23年的营收复合增速达24%,远超出Nike的6.8%和Adidas的2.1%,并超越Under Armour成为全 球第4大运动品牌。2)深耕自营模式,线下线上齐发力。受益于客单价和流量的双提升,2023公司线下/ 线上营收同比增长20.8%/17%,占比分别为46%/45%,呈现齐头并进态势。3)在兼顾北美市场同时,快 速布局中国市场。公司在中国市场的一二线城市大力开设线下直营店,在三四线城市主攻线上DTC模式; 从2020-23年,中国市场的营收复合增速高达55.6%,将成为下个主力市场。4)综合来看,2023公司盈 利能力提升、费用率维持稳定。受运输成本下降的影响,毛利率+2.9pp至58.3%;由于用人成本增加及市 场投入加大,SG&A费用率同比+1.3pp至35.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market over the next six months [12][26]. Core Views - The company is expanding its domestic shipping fleet and enhancing its capabilities in clean energy and international business, which is expected to strengthen its market position [1][3]. - The company has added 7 new domestic trade vessels in 2023, increasing its capacity to 48,000 deadweight tons, and now operates a total of 27 vessels with a capacity of 287,800 deadweight tons [2]. - The revenue for 2023 reached 1.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 250 million yuan, up 22.3% [2]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth of 24.62% in 2024, reaching approximately 1.54 billion yuan, and a net profit of 320.83 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.22% [4][23]. - The chemical transportation business is expected to see significant growth, with projected revenues of 926.7 million yuan in 2024, a 25% increase year-on-year [8][22]. - The overall revenue is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 1.81 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.04 billion yuan in 2026, maintaining growth rates of 17.15% and 13.14% respectively [4][24]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness by expanding its chemical transportation services and entering international markets, which is anticipated to yield higher returns [3][17]. - The introduction of new chemical vessels is part of the strategy to tap into international shipping markets, thereby broadening the company's operational scope [3][17]. Market Position - The company holds a 14.22% market share in the coastal inter-provincial chemical shipping sector, indicating a steady increase in its competitive position [2]. - The report highlights the company's commitment to becoming a comprehensive service provider in the chemical supply chain, with ongoing improvements in its LPG transportation capabilities [17].

央国企量化选股优选策略与 7 月组合 ——央国企量化选股月度跟踪 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------| | 录 目 | | | 1 沪深 A股央国企有效因子浏弈 | | | 2 沪深 A股夹国企优选集客 | | | 3"一带一路+国企"优选集蜂 | | | 4"数字经济-1国企" 优选策略 | | | 5"国家安全+国企" 优选策略… | | | 6"娱行+国企"优选集略 | | | 7 风险提示 … | | 夹国企量化选股月度跟踪 目 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 图 1: 股息率(TTM) 的 IC序列及累计曲线. | | | 图 2: 股息率（TTM）的分组净值图 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests to pay attention to the company due to its stable main business and potential growth from its transformation efforts [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company holds the toll rights for the Jiahuajialing River Bridge, generating approximately 200 million CNY in cash flow annually over the past three years, with a cash balance of 1.353 billion CNY as of Q1 2024 [1]. - The company is transitioning towards the integrated circuit and high-tech sectors, with investments in the Jiaxing Linlan Equity Investment Partnership, indirectly holding 5.0978 million shares of Changfei Advanced, aiming to leverage its geographical advantages in Chongqing [1]. - The establishment of the "Big Fund Phase III" with a scale of 344 billion CNY provides a solid foundation for sustainable industrial development and presents opportunities for the company's transformation [1]. - The company’s toll revenue from the Jiahuajialing River Bridge is stable and not significantly affected by macroeconomic adjustments, with toll income of 114 million CNY in 2023 [1]. - The company has a diversified investment portfolio, including a 33% stake in Yufu Expressway and a 4.93% stake in Chongqing Bank, generating steady investment income [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Chongqing Road and Bridge Co., Ltd. is a state-owned enterprise engaged in urban road and bridge operations, infrastructure construction, investment, and real estate development, listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since 1997 [13]. 2. Existing Assets - The company has a clear asset structure with stable cash flows, primarily from the Jiahuajialing River Bridge BOT project, which has a revenue period until September 2034 [71]. - The company achieved an operating income of 1.17 billion CNY in 2023, with toll revenue contributing 1.14 billion CNY [17]. - Investment income has shown steady growth, with the company realizing 162 million CNY in investment income in 2023 [1]. 3. Strategic Transformation - The company is actively seeking opportunities in the integrated circuit and high-tech industries, with plans to invest in relevant companies to establish a second main business [57]. - The company has made investments in the Linlan Equity Investment Partnership and plans to invest in chip design through a partnership with Lanzhi Electronics Technology [90]. - The "33618" industrial development plan proposed by the Chongqing government aims to create multiple industrial clusters, which will benefit the company’s strategic transformation efforts [93]. 4. Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 240 million, 230 million, and 230 million CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.18, 0.18, and 0.17 CNY [1]. - The company’s financial ratios indicate a healthy balance sheet, with a cash ratio of 2.56 and a current ratio of 3.15, ranking favorably among peers [77].

2024 年 06 月 30 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•国防军工 军工行业周报(6.24-6.30) 全军学习延安会议精神,嫦娥六号成功返回 [上周( Table_Summary 6 月 24 日-]6 月 28 日),SW 军工板块报收 1239.2 点,下跌 0.4%,板 块排名第 4。同期沪深300 指数下跌 1.0%,创业板指数下跌 4.1%。 行业动态: 全军学习贯彻延安中央军委政治工作会议精神 近期延安召开的中央军委政治工作会议,是继古田全军政治工作会议之后,新 时代新征程上又一个具有里程碑意义的重要会议,对于开创政治建军新局面、 锻造更加坚强的英雄军队,对于团结凝聚全军打好实现建军一百年奋斗目标攻 坚战、加快建成世界一流军队,具有重大深远意义。全军将把学习宣传贯彻中 央军委政治工作会议精神,作为当前和今后一个时期重大政治任务。 嫦娥六号实现月背采样返回任务 6 月 25日,嫦娥六号返回器携带来自月背的月球样品安全着陆在内蒙古四子王 旗预定区域,在人类历史上首次实现月球背面采样返回。嫦娥六号任务突破了 月球逆行轨道设计与控制技术、月背智能采样技术、月背起飞上升技术,实现 了世界 ...

下面开始播放免责声明本次变化会议服务于西南研究所白名单客户不构成投资电影本公司不对投资者使用本次会议内容所导致的投资损失承担任何责任专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点 未经本公司事先书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式复制刊载转载转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利大家好欢迎参加西南研究金股电话会议聚焦2024年7月投资策略及金股推荐 目前所有的参会者均处于静音状态现在有请策略行业程老师开始发言谢谢好的 尊敬的各位投资者晚上好我是西南策略的程瑞智给大家分享一下我们近期的一个观点我们认为未来一个阶段可能进入强美元的区间主要基于三点逻辑第一点就是 美国经济超越期的概率增加我们看到最近这两三个月美国经济意外指数经历了一段时间的持续下行看上去已经达到了2023年初的低位但这波下行整体符合季节性的节奏根据我们看到19到23年整个经济意外指数的季节性的图二季度往往都是一个下行期然后五六月份为年内的低点 从三季度开始开始上行而且保持一个整体的高位所以在美国夏季初心旺季的背景之下经济超预期的概率在增加第二点就是全球经济可能在二季度可能是一个高点根据我 ...