Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the machinery equipment industry as of January 5, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - Demand continues to stabilize, with structural opportunities emphasized. The report indicates that while domestic demand remains weak, overseas demand is showing improvement. The report suggests a focus on sectors such as tools, machine tools, injection molding machines, forklifts, and air compressors for medium to long-term investment [5][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In December, the general equipment index fell by 2.5%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.1 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as industrial control, industrial robots, injection molding machines, and tools saw some increases, while machine tools, forklifts, reducers, and air compressors experienced declines [15][21]. Economic Data Review - The manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index and new orders index were 52.1% and 51.0%, respectively [28][30]. - In November, the total social financing increment was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion yuan. The M1 and M2 growth rates were -3.7% and +7.1%, respectively [29][30]. Sector Performance Tracking - The report highlights structural differences in the demand across various sub-sectors. The industrial control, air compressor, and injection molding machine sectors are experiencing relatively high demand, while tools, machine tools, forklifts, industrial robots, and reducers show stable demand with upward trends in overseas markets [21][28]. Related Companies - Suggested investment targets include: 1. Tools: Huari Precision (688059), Oke Yi (688308), Zhongtung High-tech (000657) 2. Machine Tools: Haitan Precision (601882), Nuwei CNC (688697), Kede CNC (688305) 3. Forklifts: Anhui Heli (600761), Hangcha Group (603298) 4. Injection Molding Machines: Yizhiming (300415), Haitian International (1882.HK) 5. Reducers: Guomao Co. (603915), Zhongdali De (002896) 6. Air Compressors: Dongya Machinery (301028) [40][41][42][43].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the construction materials and new materials industry, particularly focusing on consumer building materials [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The demand side is expected to stabilize and recover under the stimulus of loose macro policies, while proactive changes on the supply side are noteworthy. The cement industry is successfully increasing prices due to industry self-discipline and peak-shifting production [4][6]. - The real estate sector is transitioning into a stock market, with significant potential for renovation and upgrading of existing properties. The report highlights the shift from B-end to C-end customers in consumer building materials, suggesting that brands with strong market presence and distribution channels are worth focusing on [4][6]. Summary by Sections 2024 Industry Review - Demand is anticipated to stabilize as confidence in the housing market strengthens. The cement industry is recovering profitability through self-discipline and proactive price increases [6][24]. - The glass fiber sector is experiencing a broadening of application fields, with a long-term positive trend in consumption volume. The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product structures and cost advantages [4][50]. - The glass industry faces weak downstream demand, with a need to monitor supply-side changes. The report notes that while photovoltaic glass demand is growing, flat glass consumption is declining [4][62]. - Consumer building materials are expected to see a release of pent-up demand, particularly in the context of renovation and urban renewal policies. The report highlights the importance of companies with competitive advantages in the C-end market [4][74]. Key Recommendations for 2025 - The report recommends focusing on companies such as West Construction (002302) in the cement sector, China Jushi (600176) and International Composites (301526) in the glass fiber sector, and Tubaobao (002043) and Beixin Building Materials (000786) in consumer building materials [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the light industry sector, highlighting potential growth opportunities driven by policy support and strong demand in specific segments [1][4]. Core Insights - The light industry sector has shown resilience, with certain sub-sectors like paper and personal care outperforming others such as home furnishings and packaging. The report emphasizes the emergence of domestic brands capturing market share from foreign competitors, supported by favorable policies [4][5]. - The report outlines four main investment themes for 2025: 1) Continued support for home consumption through government subsidies, 2) Growth of domestic brands in consumer goods, 3) High-value export targets with strong demand resilience, and 4) Recovery in demand for paper products driven by economic recovery [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Review and Outlook - In 2024, the light industry sector lagged behind the overall market, with a cumulative decline of 1.3%. The paper and entertainment sectors performed better than the overall light industry, while home furnishings faced pressure from real estate market challenges [4][13]. - The report notes that the home furnishings sector is expected to recover due to supportive policies and a rebound in demand, particularly from leading companies [4][30]. Recommended Stocks and Valuation - The report recommends several stocks based on their growth potential and market positioning, including Baiya Co., Runben Co., Sun Paper, Oppein Home, and others [4][5]. Home Furnishings Sector Analysis - The home furnishings sector has been impacted by real estate pressures, with revenue and profit growth declining. However, the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption is expected to support recovery [4][35]. - The report highlights the importance of cost control and efficiency improvements among leading companies, which have managed to maintain stable profit margins despite rising costs [4][36]. Economic and Policy Environment - The report discusses the positive impact of recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including interest rate cuts and subsidy programs for home renovations [4][54][56]. - The introduction of "old-for-new" policies in home furnishings has shown significant effects on consumer spending, with companies actively participating in these initiatives [4][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the innovative drug sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, noting a mixed performance with 21 stocks rising and 87 falling in the first week of January 2025. The A-share innovative drug sector decreased by 4.31%, while the Hong Kong sector fell by 4.59% [2][20][26]. - Over the past six months, the A-share innovative drug sector has increased by 11.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.18 percentage points, while the Hong Kong sector has risen by 7.7%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.46 percentage points [23][26]. - The report also discusses the approval of new drugs, with two new drugs approved in January domestically and four in the same week, but no new indications were approved [4][30][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In the first week of January 2025, the A-share innovative drug sector saw a decline of 4.31%, while the Hong Kong sector dropped by 4.59%. The XBI index in the US increased by 2.89% [2][20][27]. - The report notes that the A-share innovative drug sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the last six months, while the Hong Kong sector has underperformed the Hang Seng index [23][26]. 2. Drug Approvals - Two new drugs were approved in January domestically, with no new indications approved. In the same week, four new drugs were also approved without new indications [4][30][38]. - In the US, seven NDA approvals were granted in the week, while no new drugs were approved in Europe or Japan [5][34][37]. 3. Key Transactions - The report mentions significant global transactions, including a deal between Innovent Biologics and Roche for $1.08 billion, and other smaller transactions [6][42]. 4. Drug Development Progress - The report details the progress of GLP-1RA drugs for diabetes and obesity, with several drugs at various stages of clinical trials and approvals [13][15]. - It also highlights the sales performance of key drugs, such as the significant sales increase for Tirzepatide and Semaglutide in 2023 [19]. 5. Clinical Trials - The report outlines the number of clinical trials initiated, with 14 new trials announced in January, including various phases of trials for different drugs [33]. 6. Global Market Overview - The report provides an overview of the global innovative drug market, noting the lack of new drug approvals in major markets like Europe and Japan during the reporting period [34][37]. 7. Analyst Commentary - The report includes insights from analysts on the future outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, emphasizing the potential for growth in innovative drug development and market performance [1][8].

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 01 月 06 日 证券研究报告•公司研究报告 怡 亚 通（002183）交通运输 目标价：7.06 元（6 个月） 买入 （首次） 当前价：4.13 元 流通巨头，从商社迈向新质生产力 | 指标/年度 [Table_MainProfit] | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 94422.37 | 84891.82 | 84891.82 | 85020.85 | | 增长率 | 10.57% | -10.09% | 0.00% | 0.15% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 140.99 | 107.53 | 132.70 | 190.18 | | 增长率 | -44.95% | -23.73% | 23.40% | 43.32% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.07 | | 每股净资产 BPS（元） | 3.47 | 3.47 | 3.53 | 3.59 | | 净资产收益率 R ...

2024年家电行业整体仍是呈现出较强韧性，在国补政策刺激下、海外补库周期下内外销均表现良好。 需求端：内销方面，Q1渠道补库，Q2-Q3终端需求走弱，整体呈现量价下滑态势，随着9月国补政策陆续 落地推广，Q4市场重新焕发活力，量价齐升，内销市场增速全年呈现V型走势；海外市场方面，补库需求带动 家电外销高景气度持续。根据产业在线数据，2024年1-10月空调、冰箱、洗衣机内销量分别同比增长2%、 2.3%、5.9%，外销量分别同比增长33.7%、19.8%、17.1%。 成本端：铜、铝、ABS等主要大宗原材料价格均有所上涨，主要航线海运费也呈上涨趋势，但家电企业积极 推行效率改革，降本控费，整体盈利能力仍有小幅提升。 家电行业2025年投资策略 政策支撑内销增长，关注外销新兴市场 西南证券研究发展中心 家电研究团队 2024年12月 核 心 观 点 回顾2024年： 市场表现方面：家电行业指数涨幅居前，主要由于年初开始在红利风格影响下，配合家电行业扎实的基本 面表现，家电行业涨幅亮眼。5月，市场开始对原材料涨价、库存、外销基数等方面产生担心，家电行业表现 弱于市场。9月后，随着家电"国补"政策的持续落地刺激内需 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. is currently in the 11th long cycle of prosperity since 1818, with short cycles lasting approximately 3-5 years, influenced mainly by long-term U.S. Treasury yields[2] - Historically, new home sales growth typically turns upward around the time of interest rate cuts, with a lag of about 8.6 months during hard landings and 3 months during soft landings[2][6] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - New home sales showed a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in November 2024, while existing home sales rose by 6.1%, marking the largest increase in three years[2][19] - The affordability index for U.S. residents was at 67 in October 2024, indicating that housing costs exceed 30% of median household income, reflecting weak affordability[27] Group 3: Supply Conditions - As of November 2024, total inventory of new and existing homes was approximately 1.823 million units, remaining low compared to historical levels[2][36] - New home inventory stood at 493,000 units, while existing home inventory was at 1.33 million units, with the latter being significantly lower than historical peaks[36] Group 4: Price Trends - The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in September 2024, down from a peak of 6.57% earlier in the year[2] - The median price of existing homes increased by 4.7% year-on-year in November 2024, while new home prices have been declining since October 2022[2][19] Group 5: Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve initiated a new round of rate cuts in September 2024, reducing rates by 100 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50%[2] - A 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates decreases the likelihood of home sales by 18.1%, indicating the significant impact of interest rates on the housing market[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of approximately 1738 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 857 billion yuan, up by about 14.67% [6]. - The company successfully completed its annual targets for 2024 despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment and the liquor industry cycle, focusing on consumer needs and market challenges [6]. - For 2025, the company aims to address the "supply-demand mismatch" issue and plans to slightly increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor compared to 2024 [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2023A: 1505.60 billion yuan - 2024E: 1737.97 billion yuan (growth rate: 15.43%) - 2025E: 1912.10 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.02%) - 2026E: 2093.94 billion yuan (growth rate: 9.51%) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023A: 747.34 billion yuan - 2024E: 857.07 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.68%) - 2025E: 945.93 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.37%) - 2026E: 1044.39 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.41%) [2][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 yuan - 2024E: 68.23 yuan - 2025E: 75.30 yuan - 2026E: 83.14 yuan [2][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to develop new product sizes for Moutai liquor, including 750ml and 400ml bottles aimed at the dining and international markets, while maintaining a focus on its core products [6]. - The company aims for a growth rate of no less than 14% for its series of liquors in 2025, aligning with its average growth over the past five years [6]. - Guizhou Moutai's market strategy includes enhancing its self-operated and social distribution systems to improve overall competitiveness and market reach [6].

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 01 月 05 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•汽车 汽车行业周报（12.30-1.3） 以旧换新政策延续，汽车智能化加速突破 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -19% -10% -1% 8% 17% 26% 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 汽车 沪深300 | 数据来源：聚源数据 | | --- | [Table_Report] 1. 汽车行业周报（12.23-12.27）：全国新 能源充电桩数同比+50%，利好新能源渗 透率提升 (2024-12-30) 2. 汽车行业 2025 年投资策略：电动智能与 机器人共舞，行业周期加速向上 (2024-12-24) 3. 汽车行业周报（12.16-12.20）：预计 12 月乘用车零售 270 万辆，新能源渗透率 可达 51.9% (2024-12-23) 4. 汽车行业周报（12.9-12.13）：11 月新 能源渗透率达 52.3%，以旧换新带动乘 用车销售量超 520 万辆 (2024-12-16 ...

[2025 Table_IndustryInfo 年 01 月 04 日 ] 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（12.30-1.3） 创新药械政策发布，年度持续看好创新+出海主线 2025 年围绕新质生产力和高质量发展大背景，看好医药创新+出海、主题投 资、红利三大主线。 创新+出海主线——创新药：政策端，2024 年 7 月国常会审议通过《全链条 支持创新药发展实施方案》，创新药作为新质生产力之一，顶层设计方案有望 助推创新药快速发展。2024 年 11 月末，创新药医保谈判成功率达 90%以 上，医保强调支持"真创新"药物的政策导向。2024 年 11 月，国家医保局发 文提到引导商保更多支持包容创新药耗和器械，未来支付端商保发展空间值得 关注。研发端，SKB264、AK112 等于 WCLC/ASCO 会议发布肺癌适应症出 色临床数据，国产创新持续亮相；出海方面，2024 年国产新药授权出海百花 齐放，二代 IO、减肥药、自免 TCE、ADC、新机制、新适应症等热点频出。 恒瑞医药以 NewCo 模式实现 GLP-1 产品组合授权出海，交易总金额超 60 亿 美元。医疗器械：随着第五批国采 ...