[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 01 月 05 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（1230-0105） 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_Summary 行情回顾：本周（] 12月 30日-01月 05日）机器人指数跑赢大盘。中证机器人 指数下跌 8.9%，跑输上证指数 3.4个百分点，跑输沪深 300指数 3.8个百分点， 跑输创业板指 0.4 个百分点。 智元开源百万真机数据集，加速人形机器人训练。12月 30日，智元机器人携 手上海人工智能实验室、国家地方共建人形机器人创新中心以及上海库帕思， 重磅发布全球首个基于全域真实场景、全能硬件平台、全程质量把控的百万真 机数据集开源项目 AgiBot World。AgiBot World是全球首个基于全域真实场景、 全能硬件平台、全程质量把控的百万真机数据集。相比 Google 开源的 Open X-Embodiment 数据集，AgiBot World 长程数据规模高出 10倍，场景范围覆 盖面扩大 100 倍，数据质量从实验室级上升到工业级标准。 乐聚年产 200台人形机器 ...

投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶明辉 电话：13909990246 邮箱：ymh@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 数据来源：聚源数据 -24% -14% -4% 6% 16% 26% 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 机械设备 沪深300 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 439 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 32,008.70 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 31,073.83 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 28.9 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.4 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 01 月 03 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（12.30-1.3） 央行持续释放流动性，俄罗斯又断供天然气 摘要 1. 制造业平稳收官，非制造业超预期改善 ——12 月 PMI 数据点评 (2025-01-02) 2. 地方专项债管理优化，美国政府再次避 免停摆 (2024-12-27) 3. 加强央企市值管理，美联储降息但放鹰 (2024-12-21) 4. 地产销售同比转涨，消费增速边际回落 ——11 月经济数据点评 (2024-12-17) 5. 直接融资持续支撑社融，化债及购房推 升 M1——11 月社融数据点评 (2024-12-14) 6. 加强超常规逆周期调节，美国 CPI 符合 预期 (2024-12-13) 7. 城市加快智能化发展，美联储降息或更 谨慎 (2024-12-08) 8. 数字化加快推进，"关税威胁"拉响警 报 (2024-11-29) 9. 推进国资"三个集中"，特朗普提名陆 续出炉 (2024-11-22) 10.国内居民消费改善，美联储降息不必匆 忙 (2024-11-15) 0 197 4 [Tabl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hutchison China MediTech (0013.HK) with a target price of HKD 40.90, while the current price is HKD 23.40 [1]. Core Insights - Hutchison China MediTech has announced the sale of a 45% stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals for USD 608 million (RMB 4.478 billion) to focus on innovative drug development. The proceeds will be used to further develop its internal product pipeline, particularly its next-generation antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) platform [7]. - The NDA for Savolitinib in combination with Osimertinib for treating MET-amplified NSCLC has been accepted and prioritized for review in China, indicating significant progress in addressing resistance issues in EGFR inhibitors [7]. - The commercialization of Fuzuloparib in the U.S. has been successful, with expected sales of USD 130 million in the first half of 2024, and it has been included in healthcare insurance in Spain and Japan, enhancing its commercial prospects [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Hutchison China MediTech are USD 642.07 million in 2024, USD 736.97 million in 2025, and USD 884.99 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of -23.38%, 14.78%, and 20.09% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -USD 17.24 million in 2024, USD 74.51 million in 2025, and USD 134.20 million in 2026, with growth rates of -117.10%, 532.22%, and 80.12% respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -USD 0.02 in 2024, USD 0.09 in 2025, and USD 0.15 in 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 40.81 CNY for the next six months [45]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic power distribution market, benefiting from the ongoing upgrade of smart grid infrastructure driven by distributed renewable energy integration [45][46]. - The overseas business is expanding, with significant orders expected in 2024, particularly in the distribution sector, indicating a shift from the consumption side to the distribution side [19][46]. - The medical segment is experiencing stable growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% in the domestic rehabilitation medical market from 2020 to 2023 [16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in two main segments: smart power distribution and medical services, with a well-established international presence [61]. - It has a strong production and R&D capability globally, with manufacturing bases in Brazil, Indonesia, Poland, Germany, and Mexico, contributing to 17% of its revenue from overseas [61]. Domestic Power Distribution - The company secured a total of 760 million CNY in bids for smart meters in 2024, achieving a market share of 6.2% [15]. - It ranks first in market share for distribution transformers in both State Grid and Southern Grid, benefiting from the smart grid upgrade [15]. Overseas Business - The company has established five overseas production bases, enhancing its ability to meet demand and stabilize market share [19]. - In 2024, the company expects to receive orders worth 1.8 billion CNY from overseas markets, with a notable breakthrough in Europe and Mexico [19]. Medical Segment - The company has expanded its medical services by adding six hospitals in the first half of 2024, bringing the total to 34 hospitals [16]. - The CAGR for medical revenue from 2016 to 2023 is 24.4%, indicating robust growth potential [16]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 14.76 billion CNY, 17.98 billion CNY, and 21.31 billion CNY, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 22.6%, 25.4%, and 24.2% [46]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.2 billion CNY from the power distribution segment and 600 million CNY from the medical segment by 2025 [46].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Central SOE Quantitative Selection Strategy **Construction Idea**: Combine seven dimensions including dividend, valuation, volatility, sentiment, company performance, risk resistance, and ESG to select effective factors for scoring and stock selection among central SOEs [6][7][13] **Construction Process**: - Factors include: - Dividend dimension: Dividend yield (TTM) = Cash dividend per share over the past 12 months divided by stock price [7] - Valuation dimension: PE ratio (TTM) = Market capitalization / Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (TTM) [7] - Company performance: Net profit growth rate = (Current period - Same period last year) / ABS(Same period last year) * 100% [7] - ROE (TTM) = Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (TTM) / Shareholders' equity attributable to parent company [7] - Revenue = Main business revenue + Other business revenue [7] - Risk resistance: - Short-term solvency (Cash flow ratio) = Net cash flow from operating activities / Current liabilities [7] - Long-term solvency (Interest coverage ratio) = EBIT / Interest expense [7] - Volatility dimension: 24-month volatility = Standard deviation of monthly stock returns over the past 24 months [7] - Sentiment dimension: Trading volume over the past month [7] - ESG dimension: Wind ESG comprehensive score [7] - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): PE ratio (TTM): Volatility: Trading volume: Net profit growth rate: Cash flow ratio: Interest coverage ratio = 1:1:1:1:1:0.5:0.5 [13] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 20 selected stocks [13] **Evaluation**: Factors such as dividend yield, PE ratio, volatility, and trading volume show strong correlation with future returns of central SOEs. Financial report-related factors like net profit, cash flow ratio, and interest coverage ratio have lower correlation due to quarterly data [7] - **Model Name**: "Belt and Road + SOE" Strategy **Construction Idea**: Focus on ROE and net profit growth factors due to poor performance of PE ratio factor in Belt and Road SOEs [20] **Construction Process**: - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): ROE: Net profit growth rate: Cash flow ratio: Interest coverage ratio = 1:1:1:0.5:0.5 [20] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 10 selected stocks [20] **Evaluation**: ROE and net profit growth factors perform better in Belt and Road SOEs, while PE ratio factor shows "low valuation trap" [20] - **Model Name**: "Digital Economy + SOE" Strategy **Construction Idea**: Emphasize ROE and net profit growth factors due to their strong performance in digital economy SOEs [24] **Construction Process**: - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): PE ratio (TTM): Trading volume: ROE: Net profit growth rate: Cash flow ratio: Interest coverage ratio = 1:1:1:1:1:0.5:0.5 [24] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 10 selected stocks [24] **Evaluation**: ROE and net profit growth factors perform well, with high dividend yield stocks like China Mobile and China Telecom included [24] - **Model Name**: "National Security + SOE" Strategy **Construction Idea**: Exclude volatility factor due to poor performance and add ESG factor for national security SOEs [30] **Construction Process**: - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): PE ratio (TTM): Trading volume: ROE: ESG = 1:1:1:1:2 [30] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 10 selected stocks [30] **Evaluation**: ESG factor performs well, with high scores for companies like China Mobile and China Shenhua [30] - **Model Name**: "Banking + SOE" Strategy **Construction Idea**: Add revenue factor for banking SOEs [35] **Construction Process**: - Scoring weights: Dividend yield (TTM): PE ratio (TTM): Revenue: ROE = 1.5:1.5:1:1 [35] - Monthly rebalancing of portfolio with 5 selected stocks [35] **Evaluation**: Revenue factor added to improve model performance, with high ROE stocks like Hangzhou Bank included [35] Model Backtesting Results - **Central SOE Quantitative Selection Strategy**: - Annualized return: 15.28% - Excess annualized return over CSI SOE Index: 10.84% - 2023 cumulative return: 58.24% - 2024 cumulative return: 31.11% [13][14][15] - **"Belt and Road + SOE" Strategy**: - Annualized return: 18.51% - Excess annualized return over CSI Belt and Road Index: 14.94% - 2023 cumulative return: 39.33% - 2024 cumulative return: 24.89% [20][21] - **"Digital Economy + SOE" Strategy**: - Annualized return: 14.72% - Excess annualized return over CSI TMT Index: 13.91% - 2023 cumulative return: 44.57% - 2024 cumulative return: 15.59% [24][25] - **"National Security + SOE" Strategy**: - Annualized return: 18.13% - Excess annualized return over CSI National Security Index: 9.10% - 2023 cumulative return: 55.37% - 2024 cumulative return: 30.57% [30][31] - **"Banking + SOE" Strategy**: - Annualized return: 11.36% - Excess annualized return over SW First-level Banking Index: 7.24% - 2023 cumulative return: 74.41% - 2024 cumulative return: 54.03% [35][36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Dividend Yield (TTM) **Construction Idea**: Higher dividend yield correlates with higher future returns [7][8] **Construction Process**: Dividend yield (TTM) = Cash dividend per share over the past 12 months divided by stock price [7] **Evaluation**: Strong positive correlation with future returns, good monotonicity in grouping [7][8] - **Factor Name**: PE Ratio (TTM) **Construction Idea**: Lower PE ratio correlates with higher future returns [7] **Construction Process**: PE ratio (TTM) = Market capitalization / Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (TTM) [7] **Evaluation**: Effective in central SOEs but shows "low valuation trap" in Belt and Road SOEs [7][20] - **Factor Name**: ROE (TTM) **Construction Idea**: Higher ROE correlates with higher future returns [7][20][24] **Construction Process**: ROE (TTM) = Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (TTM) / Shareholders' equity attributable to parent company [7] **Evaluation**: Strong performance in multiple strategies, especially in digital economy and Belt and Road SOEs [20][24] - **Factor Name**: ESG Comprehensive Score **Construction Idea**: Higher ESG scores correlate with better performance in national security SOEs [30] **Construction Process**: Wind ESG comprehensive score [7][30] **Evaluation**: Effective in national security SOEs, with high scores for companies like China Mobile [30] Factor Backtesting Results - **Dividend Yield (TTM)**: - IC mean: 0.061 - IC standard deviation: 0.18 - T-statistic: 3.21 - IC win rate: 61.36% - IR: 0.34 - IC > 0.02 proportion: 95.45% [9] - **PE Ratio (TTM)**: - IC mean: -0.069 - IC standard deviation: 0.19 - T-statistic: -3.43 - IC win rate: 65.91% - IR: -0.37 - IC > 0.02 proportion: 93.18% [9] - **ROE (TTM)**: - IC mean: 0.025 - IC standard deviation: 0.11 - T-statistic: 2.07 - IC win rate: 57.30% - IR: 0.22 - IC > 0.02 proportion: 86.52% [9] - **ESG Comprehensive Score**:

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights three main investment themes for the pharmaceutical industry in 2025: innovation, international expansion, and thematic investments [8]. - The A-share innovative drug sector experienced a decline of 0.38% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.74 percentage points, while the biopharmaceutical sector fell by 2.12% [8][21]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector rose by 0.66%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 1.21 percentage points [51]. - The XBI index decreased by 0.61% this week, with a cumulative decline of 1.5% over the past six months [25]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - A total of 38 stocks in the innovative drug sector rose, while 70 stocks fell during the last week of December [47]. - The top three gainers were Heptares Therapeutics-B (+34.33%), Terns Pharmaceuticals-B (+17.65%), and Double-Crane Pharmaceutical (+10.76%) [47]. - The top three decliners were Chuangsheng Group-B (-13.64%), Lepu Biopharma-B (-11.74%), and Yipin Hong (-9.81%) [47]. 2. Drug Approval Progress - In December, 11 new drugs were approved in China, with no new indications approved this week [28][61]. - The U.S. saw five NDA approvals and four BLA approvals in December, but no approvals were reported this week [30][61]. - Europe and Japan reported no new innovative drug approvals in December [33][83]. 3. Clinical Trials and Drug Development - The report indicates that there are currently 11 GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs approved for diabetes, with three in the NDA stage and nine in Phase III clinical trials [14]. - For obesity, three GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs are approved, with one in the NDA stage and six in Phase III clinical trials [15]. 4. Sales Performance - The report notes that sales for the drug Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) reached $5.163 billion in 2023, reflecting a 970.1% increase [20]. - The combined sales of Semaglutide products reached $21.157 billion in 2023, with significant growth in both diabetes and weight loss indications [46].

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for December is 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from November, but still above the expansion threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for Q4 is 50.2%, significantly higher than Q3's 49.4%, indicating a shift into the expansion zone[1] - The new orders index rose to 51%, reflecting continued demand growth, while the production index decreased to 52.1%[1] Employment and Business Expectations - The employment index for December fell to 48.1%, indicating a stable job market but below the expansion threshold[1] - Business activity expectations index decreased to 53.3%, yet remains optimistic about future operations[1] Import and Export Trends - New export orders index is at 48.3%, while the import index increased to 49.3%, both remaining below the critical line[1] - The import index has surpassed the new export orders index for the first time since February, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics[1] Price Indices and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index dropped to 48.2%, continuing a contraction trend for two months, while the factory price index fell to 46.7%[3] - Finished goods inventory index is at 47.9%, marking 22 consecutive months below the expansion line, suggesting ongoing low inventory levels[3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 52.2%, exceeding market expectations and indicating robust growth in the sector[16] - The service industry index increased to 52%, with significant growth in sectors like air transport and financial services[16] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to support domestic demand in 2024[1] - Continued policy support is expected to bolster the consumer goods sector, with a focus on enhancing consumption and technological innovation[16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company. Core Insights - The economic growth in Chongqing is robust, with a GDP growth rate of 6.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024, positioning it second nationally, indicating significant future growth potential [1]. - The bank benefits from a relatively low mortgage exposure of 9.6%, below the average of listed banks, and is expected to see a notable support for its interest margin due to the upcoming repricing of high-interest deposits [1]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has been consistently declining, reaching 1.26% as of Q3 2024, down by 0.08 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The bank is well-positioned in Chongqing, with a balanced shareholding structure where the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is the largest shareholder, holding 25.7% [15]. - The management team has extensive experience in the local market, which aids in executing regional development strategies [25]. Section 2: Economic and Strategic Advantages - Chongqing is a key national center city with significant strategic advantages, including a strong economic growth trajectory and supportive policies that enhance market potential [48][54]. - The bank is actively involved in the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, contributing over 130 billion yuan in credit support in 2023 [56]. Section 3: Business Operations - The bank's total assets have shown stable growth, reaching 824.1 billion yuan by Q3 2024, with a projected path towards a trillion yuan in the coming years [60]. - The loan-to-deposit ratio has been increasing, with corporate loans making up a growing share of the bank's portfolio, reflecting its focus on supporting local enterprises [71]. Section 4: Financial Performance - The bank's interest margin is expected to remain stable due to its low mortgage exposure and the anticipated repricing of deposits [1][4]. - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a decrease in new non-performing loans, which is likely to enhance return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery [2]. Section 5: Future Outlook - The bank is expected to benefit from the ongoing economic development in Chongqing, with policies aimed at reducing debt burdens and enhancing growth potential [62][63]. - The bank's technology investments are increasing, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) with a target price of 7.39 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive macroeconomic policies and the development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, which are expected to boost overall credit demand in Chongqing, allowing Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank to steadily expand its balance sheet [2][71]. - The bank's loan-to-total-assets ratio is currently at 46.8%, significantly lower than the industry average of 57.2%, indicating potential for optimizing asset structure to mitigate the negative effects of interest rate cuts on income from interest-earning assets [2]. - The bank has a strong cost advantage with a deposit interest rate of only 1.8%, which is 18 basis points lower than its peers, contributing to its competitive position [2][12]. - The bank has actively written off non-performing loans, resulting in improved asset quality, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing from 1.3% in 2020 to 1.2% in Q3 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, established in 1951, has grown to become the largest rural commercial bank in China by asset size, with total assets reaching 15,174.67 billion CNY as of Q3 2024 [22][48]. - The bank has a robust shareholder structure, with the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission holding a 31.02% stake [26][52]. Asset and Liability Management - The bank's total assets have shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2020 to 2023 [48]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio is 1.2%, ranking second among listed rural commercial banks, while its provision coverage ratio stands at 358.6% [30][57]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts the bank's book value per share (BVPS) to be 10.97 CNY in 2024, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.54, 0.51, and 0.48 for 2024-2026 [14]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be around 8.31%, which is in line with the industry average [31][34]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The bank has a significant market presence in Chongqing, with a county-level deposit market share of 32.2% as of 2023, supported by a wide network of 1,741 branches [12][74]. - The ongoing development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is expected to enhance credit demand, particularly in the public sector, benefiting the bank's growth trajectory [71].