证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 22 日 妙可蓝多（600882.SH） 奶酪业务重回增长，品牌升级剑指全民消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------|-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------|----------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 4,830 | 4,049 | 4,859 | 5,733 | 6,536 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 7.8 | -16.2 | 20.0 | 18.0 | 14.0 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 138 | 63 | 151 | 187 | 245 | 行业 | 食 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2024 年 09 月 22 日 非银行金融 关注关税加征对市场风偏影响，继续聚焦券商并购重组 -非银周观 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in both sales volume and price of gold products, which has enhanced profit margins. The first half of 2024 saw a 24.45% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 127.75% increase in net profit [3][11]. - The company's focus on technological advancements and cost control measures has contributed to its performance, with a notable increase in cash flow from operating activities [3][7]. - The company is actively engaged in resource exploration and development, which is expected to enhance its resource reserves and production capacity in the future [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 90.13 billion, with net profit expected to reach CNY 16.05 billion, translating to an EPS of CNY 0.96 [2][11]. - The company’s gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 39.50%, an increase of 7.64 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [3]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.9% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability [2][14]. Operational Highlights - The company has made significant progress in its key mining projects, with the Jiulong Mining's expansion project expected to increase processing capacity by 150% [10]. - The company has implemented various cost-saving measures, resulting in a reduction of operational costs while maintaining production efficiency [7][10]. - The company is enhancing its exploration efforts, including partnerships with geological research institutions to improve resource identification and development [9].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "stronger than market" rating [2][53]. Core Views - The railway sector experienced a peak in passenger flow during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with over 15 million passengers transported on September 17, 2024 [2][17]. - The China-Europe Railway Express saw a 12% year-on-year increase in operations, with 13,056 trains dispatched from January to August 2024 [2][19]. - The first domestic solar-hydrogen drone successfully completed its maiden flight, showcasing advancements in clean energy technology [3][20]. - The Fuling shale gas field in Chongqing reported a significant increase in daily production, reaching over 1.4 million cubic meters, a 75.89% year-on-year growth [5][22]. - The engineering machinery sector's import and export trade reached $46.55 billion in August 2024, marking a 9.02% increase year-on-year [6][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The mechanical equipment sector saw a 1.58% increase in the week from September 18 to September 20, 2024, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.26 percentage points [9][12]. - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio stood at 23.39 times as of September 20, 2024 [9]. Industry and Company Insights - The railway sector effectively increased capacity to meet holiday travel demands, with various train services added to popular tourist destinations [2][18]. - The solar-hydrogen drone combines solar and hydrogen energy, allowing for all-weather operational capabilities, which broadens its application in various fields [4][21]. - The Fuling shale gas field's production measures have led to a significant increase in output, demonstrating the potential for further development in shale gas extraction [5][22]. Key Data Tracking - The engineering machinery sector's trade figures indicate a healthy growth trajectory, with exports showing a 4.8% increase year-to-date [6][23]. - The manufacturing PMI index and fixed asset investment data are being closely monitored to gauge economic health [24][29].

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the automotive industry is "Outperform the Market" [1][40]. Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a rise of 2.19% from September 18 to September 20, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.87 percentage points [7][34]. - The PE-TTM for the automotive industry as of September 20 is 20.25, an increase of 0.44 from the previous week [2][9][34]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from September 1 to 15 reached 828,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a month-on-month increase of 12% [35]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector's performance from September 18 to September 20 showed a 2.19% increase, with the passenger vehicle segment rising by 1.35% and commercial vehicles by 1.86% [7][34]. - The automotive parts sector increased by 2.77%, while the automotive services sector rose by 0.97% [7][34]. Valuation Levels - As of September 20, the PE-TTM for the passenger vehicle, commercial vehicle, and parts segments are 22.58, 30.28, and 17.61 respectively, with increases of 0.30, 0.48, and 0.49 this week [2][9][34]. New Vehicle Launches - Multiple new models were launched, including the NIO L60, Zeekr 7X, and Deep Blue L07, with prices ranging from 15.19 to 41.48 million yuan [4][35][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the automotive sector is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in retail sales and new model launches, indicating potential investment opportunities [34].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2024 年 09 月 21 日 汽车 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|---------------|---------------|---------------|------------------|------------|-------|-------|-------------------|------------------|---------| | 1 股票 \n代码 | 股票 \n名称 | 投资 \n评级 | EPS \n2024E | （元） \n2025E | PE \n2024E | 2025E | | | 强于大市（维持） | | | 000625.SZ | 长安汽车 | 增持 | 0.94 | 1.27 | 12.77 | 9.45 | | | | | | 000887.SZ | 中鼎股份 | 增持 | 0.99 | 1.17 | 11.9 | 10.07 | | 行业走势 | | | | 002284.SZ | ...

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2024 年 09 月 22 日 电力设备及新能源 8 月新能源车市场增长显著，动力电池市场竞争加剧 新能源车即将迎来销售旺季，产销增长态势表现强劲。根据乘联会数据，2024 年 8 月我国新能源汽车产销分别完成 105.1 万辆和 102.7 万辆，产量环比增长 12.7%、销量环比增长 17.0%，同比分别增长 32.6%和 43.2%，8 月新能源车 国内零售渗透 53.9%，较去年同期 37.3%的渗透率有明显提升。2024 年 1-8 月，新能源汽车产销累计完成 657.2 万辆和 601.6 万辆，同比分别增长 28.5% 和 35.3%。 2024 年 8 月我国新能源车出口 9.9 万辆，同比增长 23.7%，环比增长 7.6%， 占乘用车出口 24%，其中纯电动占比新能源出口的 80.8%。1-8 月新能源汽 车累计出口 78.7 万辆，同比增长 20.1%。伴随着中国新能源车的规模优势显 现和市场扩张需求，中国制造的新能源产品品牌在海外的认可度持续向好。 图表1：2024 年 1-8 月我国新能源车月度销量及零售渗透率情况 强于大市（维持评级） 行业走势 -27 ...

通用装置及材料：营收稳健增长，但盈利能力下滑明显。2024H1 通用装置 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2024 年 09 月 20 日 电力及公用事业 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Economic Growth Analysis - The Ramsey model indicates that the Chinese economy will eventually reach a stable state where per capita consumption, capital, and output will no longer grow[1] - Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has experienced three growth phases: 1984-2000, 2000-2012, and 2012-present[1] - The first phase (1984-2000) had a stable economic growth rate of 3%, while the second phase (2000-2012) saw a reduced stable growth rate of 1.8%[21] - The current phase (2012-present) is projected to stabilize at a growth rate of 0.5%[21] Savings and Investment Dynamics - High savings rates have been a characteristic of all three growth phases, but they have led to potential declines in capital returns and future economic growth rates[21] - The national savings rate increased significantly from 2000 to 2008 due to the rise of private capital, which outperformed state-owned enterprises in savings rates[9] - The model predicts that savings rates will decline as consumption increases, eventually reaching an optimal savings level[8] Policy Recommendations - Accelerate reforms to promote private capital development to maintain high savings rates and productivity[21] - Ensure policy stability to allow savings rates to decrease at a pace predicted by the Ramsey model, safeguarding capital returns[21] - Encourage innovation to better leverage market mechanisms and stimulate endogenous growth and innovation[21] Risks and Assumptions - The model's assumptions are stricter than real-world conditions, and there are risks of deviations from actual economic performance[21] - Potential risks include domestic macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations and delays in data extraction[21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the solar power equipment and new energy sector is "Outperform the Market" [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the solar equipment sector experienced a total revenue of 463.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 14.61%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.425 billion yuan, marking a 100.64% decrease [2][37]. - The report indicates that the industry is currently facing significant challenges, including a rapid decline in product prices and profitability pressures across most segments of the supply chain [39][60]. - Despite the downturn, the report notes that domestic solar installations reached 102.48 GW in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, indicating resilient demand [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Half-Year Report Analysis - The solar equipment sector's performance in the first half of 2024 was marked by a significant revenue drop and net losses, with the second quarter showing the lowest performance in recent years [39][42]. - The report emphasizes the impact of irrational competition and the need for industry consolidation to improve profitability [1][60]. 2. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic solar installations and exports have shown positive growth, supporting global solar demand despite supply-side pressures leading to inventory accumulation and price declines [10][11]. - The report discusses the oversupply in the market, particularly in the silicon wafer segment, which has led to significant price drops and profitability challenges [62][63]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current state of low price-to-book (PB) valuations and a fragmented market structure presents potential investment opportunities, particularly in companies with strong fundamentals and market positions [5][12]. - Key investment targets include companies like Sungrow Power Supply, Deye Technology, and Jinlang Technology, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in the solar market [5][49].