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风电周报(2025.7.7-2025.7.13):多地发布“136号文”承接方案,国家电投25年第二批陆风集采开标-20250716
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-16 09:26
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the wind power sector, with specific stock recommendations including Jin Feng Technology and Yun Da Co., Ltd. [1][6] Core Insights - The wind power industry is experiencing significant growth, with a 134.21% year-on-year increase in new installations in the first five months of 2025, totaling 46.28 GW [1][27] - The report highlights the successful international expansion of domestic wind turbine manufacturers, with a 43% increase in wind turbine exports in Q1 2025 [2] - The report notes a decline in bidding prices for offshore wind turbines, with an average price of 3266.17 RMB/kW [2][49] Industry Dynamics - The Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for the transitional pricing policy for renewable energy, effective from June 1, 2025 [1][11] - The report tracks stock performance, noting that the wind power equipment index has a TTM P/E ratio of 32.89 and an MRQ P/B ratio of 1.64 [5][15] - The report indicates that the offshore wind power market is expected to grow significantly, driven by new technology and larger turbine sizes [6] Market Performance - The wind power equipment sector saw a price increase of 0.72% during the week of July 7-11, 2025, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [15][20] - The top-performing stocks in the wind power sector included Shangwei New Materials and Jushi Technology, with increases of 72.88% and 8.98%, respectively [22][24] Installation Data - As of May 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China reached approximately 567.49 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 23.10% [27][36] - The report details that land-based wind power installations decreased by 7.90% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while offshore installations increased by 42.03% [2][27] Material Prices - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with increases in rebar and scrap steel prices, while copper prices have decreased [39][50] - Specific prices include rebar at 3113 RMB/ton and scrap steel at 2190.60 RMB/ton, reflecting recent market trends [39][44] Tendering and Pricing Trends - A total of 1743.50 MW of wind turbine projects were tendered during the week, with 33 land-based projects totaling 3477.50 MW [49][51] - The report emphasizes the competitive nature of the bidding process, with several leading manufacturers participating [49][52]
美国6月CPI数据点评:通胀上行,关税冲击初显
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-16 09:14
证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*动态点评 2025 年 07 月 16 日 宏观经济研究 通胀上行,关税冲击初显——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 数据:美国 6 月 CPI 同比升 2.7%,预期升 2.64%,前值升 2.4%;CPI 季调环比升 0.2%,预期升 0.25%,前值升 0.1%;核心 CPI 同比升 2.9%, 预期升 2.95%,前值升 2.8%;核心 CPI季调环比升 0.2%,预期升 0.23%, 前值升 0.1%。 要点: 美国 6 月 CPI 同比 2.7%(前值 2.4%)、CPI 季调环比 0.3%(前值 0.1%)、 核心 CPI 季调环比 0.2%(前值 0.1%),市场预期分别为 2.64%、0.25%、 0.23%,基本符合市场预期,关税对美国通胀的转导效应显现。6 月 CPI 回 升主要来自运输服务、家用家具、能源价格上升,6 月美债上涨、美元下跌, 美国制造业 PMI略微回升,但仍处于收缩区间,政策前景的不确定性依旧限 制经济活跃度。不过通胀预期改善,6 月美国密歇根大学 1 年通胀率预期较 上月大幅下降 1.6 个百分点至 5%,5 年通胀预期降至 4%,由于关 ...
华统股份(002840):养殖成本持续优化,Q2利润端预计增长稳健
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-16 09:00
资料来源:公司财报,长城证券产业金融研究院 事件:公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告,2025H1 公司预计实现归母净利润 7500-9000 万元,实现扣非归母净利润 6000-7800 万元,同比实现扭亏转 盈。其中 2025Q2 预 计实现归母净利润 4100-5600 万 元( yoy+6.68%- 45.91%)。 养殖盈利驱动扭亏,Q2 归母净利润预计增长稳健。2025H1 公司预计实现归 母净利润 7500-9000 万元,同比实现扭亏,其中 2025Q2 预计实现归母净利 润 0.41-0.56 万元(yoy+6.68%-45.91%)。成本端,2025 年 3 月完全成本下 降至 13.9 元/公斤,相较于 2024 年底 15.2 元/公斤,下降了 8.55%。Q2 商 品猪销售均价从 14.8 元/公斤逐步下降至 14.2 元/公斤。2025H1 共出栏生猪 127.12 万 头 ( yoy-4.88% ), 其 中 商 品 猪 和 种 猪 共 出 栏 123.81 万 头 (yoy+8.86%);仔猪出栏 3.31 万头(yoy-83.37%)。 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 20 ...
交易型指数基金资金流向周报-20250716
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-16 03:27
证券研究报告 交易型指数基金资金流向周报 数据日期:2025/7/7-2025/7/11 长城证券产业金融研究院 基金研究 分析师:金铃 执业证书编号:S1070521040001 数据来源:wind, 长城证券产业金融研究院 QDII被动股票基金 | 大 类 | 所属概念 | 基金规模 | 周涨跌幅 | 周资金净买 | 今年以来周涨跌幅 | 今年以来周资金流向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | (%) | 入额(亿元) | 走势图 | 走势图 | | | 纳斯达克100 | 784.21 | 0.01 | -10.93 | | | | | 标普500 | 208.37 | -0.13 | 2.10 | | | | | 道琼斯 | 17.08 | -0.17 | -0.01 | | | | | 德国DAX | 9.75 | 1.29 | 0.28 | | | | | 法国CAC40 | 6.01 | 1.63 | -0.41 | | | | 综 合 | 日经225 | 36.11 | -1.85 | 0.44 | | | | ...
大盘指数企稳,后续风格或将切换至中小盘
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-16 02:35
证券研究报告 | 基金研究*周报 2025 年 07 月 16 日 基金研究 截止上周,32 只主题 ETF 的平均周涨跌幅为 2.00%。其中大盘风格 ETF 平均 周涨跌幅为 2.48%,中小盘风格 ETF 平均周涨跌幅为 1.63%。从成交量来看, 我们跟踪的主题 ETF 总成交额为 579.56 亿元,比前周增加 56.10 亿元。其中, 大盘风格 ETF 成交额为 335.04 亿元,增加 76.85 亿元;中小盘风格 ETF 的成 交额为 244.52 亿元,变化-20.75 亿元。 统计综合和行业主题下最具代表性的 ETF 表现。从收益来看,综合类 ETF 涨 跌互现,其中位列前三的 ETF 为创业板 50、创业板、1000ETF,涨跌幅分别 为 2.58%、2.44%、2.43%。位列最后三位的 ETF 为 300ETF、50ETF、华夏 300, 涨跌幅分别为 1.17%、1.23%、1.28%。行业主题类 ETF 涨跌互现,其中位列 前三的 ETF 为地产 ETF、钢铁 ETF、券商 ETF,涨跌幅分别为 6.87%、4.66%、 4.44%。位列最后三位的 ETF 为银行 ETF、家电 ...
周观点:关注7月政策窗口期的落地机会-20250716
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-16 02:22
Group 1: Economic Indicators - The domestic CPI has remained around 0 since April 2023, with June CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 0.1% after four consecutive months of decline [1] - The June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, marking the 33rd consecutive month in negative territory, with production materials and living materials both showing significant declines [2][3] - The decline in prices is attributed to factors such as the deep adjustment in the real estate market, pessimistic income expectations, and overcapacity in emerging industries like new energy and photovoltaics [3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To address the low price environment, it is essential to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies, including effective fiscal and monetary measures [3] - The report suggests expanding government-led investment demand, focusing on new infrastructure and urban renewal, and utilizing special government bonds to stimulate the economy [3][5] - There is a need to enhance consumer demand by increasing residents' income, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, and stabilizing property and stock market incomes [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The report indicates that the upcoming policy window in July is expected to bring more favorable policies, which may boost market risk appetite [6][7] - The market is currently lacking a clear mainline, but sectors such as technology growth (semiconductors, AI, consumer electronics) and new consumption industries are highlighted as having upward potential [8] - The focus on long-term investments from insurance funds is expected to increase, as new policies are set to encourage stable and value-oriented investments [7]
完美世界(002624):《诛仙世界》等带动业绩稳健增长,关注《异环》新游进展
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-15 11:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [4][16]. Core Views - The company's gaming business is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.8 to 5.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 1.77 billion yuan in the same period last year [2][3]. - The performance of "Zhu Xian World" is stable and is a significant contributor to the company's revenue growth, alongside the esports business which continues to show a positive trend [2][3]. - The company is focusing on a "quality over quantity" strategy in its film and television business, with several high-quality productions scheduled for release in 2025 [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.815 billion yuan, 8.705 billion yuan, and 9.750 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 789 million yuan, 1.327 billion yuan, and 1.584 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report indicates a significant recovery in net profit for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 161.3% expected [3]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 30.2 in 2025 to 15.0 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [3][4].
兴瑞科技(002937):战略合作绿色云图,看好液冷服务器驱动成长
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-15 10:54
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [3][18]. Core Viewpoints - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Shenzhen Green Cloud Technology Co., Ltd. to develop liquid cooling server products and technology [1]. - The collaboration leverages the technical strengths of both companies, enhancing capabilities in precision manufacturing and thermal management systems, which are crucial for the development of liquid cooling solutions [2]. - The liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with the global data center liquid cooling market expected to increase from $5.38 billion in 2024 to $17.77 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 21.6% from 2025 to 2030 [7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to decline to 1,902 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, before recovering to 2,187 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 15% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease to 229 million yuan in 2024, down 14.4% year-on-year, but is forecasted to rise to 245 million yuan in 2025 [1][2]. - Key financial metrics include a projected EPS of 0.82 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 20.4 times [1][8].
达仁堂(600329):剔除天津史克影响,25H1扣非归母净利润预计同增7%-18%
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-15 10:54
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target of outperforming the industry index by more than 15% over the next six months [4][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.84 to 2.00 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 180% to 204%. However, the non-net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 12% to 2% [2][3]. - The increase in net profit is primarily due to the sale of a 12% stake in a joint venture, generating a disposal gain of 1.54 billion yuan, with a net profit after tax of 1.31 billion yuan [2]. - The company has successfully developed the "Jing Wan Hong Skin Factor," transforming traditional Chinese medicine into effective skincare ingredients, launching the "Jing Wan Hong Comfort and Resilience Skin" series [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 8,222 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.3%. The revenue is expected to decline to 4,890 million yuan in 2025, with a significant drop of 33.1% [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 987 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.5%. However, it is expected to decrease to 2,162 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a decline of 3% [1][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.6% in 2023, increasing to 28.2% in 2024, but declining to 10.9% by 2026 [1][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 1.28 yuan, increasing to 2.89 yuan in 2024, and then decreasing to 1.28 yuan in 2026 [1][9]. Product Development - The company is focusing on skin wound repair, with the Jing Wan Hong ointment as a key product, and is expanding into the functional skincare market [3]. - The newly launched Jing Wan Hong Comfort and Resilience Skin series includes cream, mask, and spray, catering to diverse consumer needs and has successfully completed regulatory filings [3].
6月乘用车零售同比+18%,尚界汽车发布首款车型预热海报
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-15 10:48
Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Neutral" for the next six months, indicating expected performance in line with the market [53]. Core Insights - In June, retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 18.1% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles seeing a growth of 30% [4][44]. - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 0.41% from July 7 to July 11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points [10][44]. - The overall PE-TTM for the automotive industry as of July 11 is 25.83, down by 0.12 from the previous week [11][44]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The automotive sector's performance from July 7 to July 11 showed a decline across various segments, with the passenger vehicle segment down by 1.43% and commercial vehicles down by 0.99% [10][44]. - The automotive services sector, however, increased by 3.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [10][44]. Valuation Levels - As of July 11, the PE-TTM for passenger vehicles is 25.11, for commercial vehicles is 36.01, and for automotive parts is 24.33 [11][44]. - The passenger vehicle segment saw a decrease of 0.37% in valuation, while the automotive parts segment increased slightly by 0.02% [11][44]. New Models and Industry News - 尚界汽车 has released a teaser for its first SUV model, which is expected to launch in the fall of 2025 [3][44]. - A total of 29 new and updated vehicle models were launched during the week of July 7 to July 11 [40][41]. Sales Performance - In June, the total retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.084 million units, marking an 18.1% increase year-on-year [7][44]. - Cumulative retail sales for the first half of the year reached 10.901 million units, up 10.8% compared to the same period last year [7][44].