证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 非银行金融 美联储降息与元首通话共振，非银金融板块有望重拾升势-非银周观 点 海外科技映射、美国降息等影响，市场量能、走势波动较大，金融板块陷入 调整。我们判断，宏大叙事、国内 8月经济数据不及预期、美联储降息及市 场流动性充沛或是驱动市场走强的关键因素，两融波动新高，8 月非银存款 继续增加，券商为代表的非银金融震荡调整后有望呈现上行走势。交易节奏 而言，两国领导人再次通话、经济数据走弱、海外货币宽松下的流动性驱动 市场走强的趋势或有望延续，可能要重点聚焦关注贸易摩擦影响、内部问题、 居民存款搬家持续效应及美国经济可能衰退引发降息的效应，中期具体或要 看包括四中全会等重磅会议。需要高度重视券商及金融 IT 板块走强趋势，并 购线建议重点关注以国联民生为代表个股；具有估值扩张空间的公司，推荐 关注综合能力强、风险资本指标优化、受益 ETF 发展的东方证券、华泰证券 等；同时从赔率弹性角度，建议继续关注布局金融 IT 板块，建议重点关注同 花顺、九方智投（中报股东净利润 8.65 亿元，子公司方德证券在港展业；控 股旗下九方智擎入驻"模速空间"，抢滩 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic stock indices showed mixed performance last week, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index declining by -0.44%, -1.98%, and -1.30% respectively, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index increased by 0.32%, 0.21%, and 2.34% respectively [2][9] - The style indices also exhibited mixed results, with financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stability styles changing by -3.55%, 0.19%, -1.46%, 1.45%, and -1.72% respectively [2][9] - The trading volume for comprehensive ETFs was 99.469 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.762 billion yuan from the previous week, with large-cap style ETFs at 37.612 billion yuan and small-cap style ETFs at 63.504 billion yuan [2][28] Group 2: ETF Performance - The average weekly change for 32 thematic ETFs was 0.11%, with large-cap style ETFs averaging -1.92% and small-cap style ETFs averaging 1.69% [3][29] - The total trading volume for thematic ETFs was 103.783 billion yuan, an increase of 10.297 billion yuan from the previous week, with large-cap style ETFs at 60.851 billion yuan and small-cap style ETFs at 42.931 billion yuan [3][29] - The top three performing comprehensive ETFs were the ChiNext 50, ChiNext, and Double Innovation 50 ETFs, with returns of 2.90%, 2.24%, and 2.23% respectively, while the bottom three were the 50 ETF, Huaxia 300, and 300 ETF, with returns of -1.90%, -0.49%, and -0.46% respectively [4][33] Group 3: Sector Fund Flows - Significant capital inflows were observed in the brokerage and non-ferrous sectors, while previous hot sectors like semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals experienced capital outflows [4][33] - The thematic ETFs showed mixed performance, with the new energy vehicle, coal, and new automobile ETFs gaining 4.01%, 3.96%, and 3.77% respectively, while financial, non-ferrous, and non-bank ETFs lost -4.23%, -4.14%, and -4.07% respectively [4][33] - The overall market sentiment indicated a shift in capital towards sectors like brokerage and non-ferrous metals, while sectors that had previously performed well saw a reduction in investment [4][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the communication sector, including 沪电股份, 美格智能, 中际旭创, 天孚通信, 鸿日达, 中国移动, 工业富联, 中国电信, 新亚电子, and 鼎通科技 [1][2][3] Core Insights - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) market is accelerating due to advancements in AI and is expected to see significant growth, with a projected market size increase from $72.78 million in 2020 to $366.47 million by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 49.80% [2][16][35] - The quantum computing sector is experiencing rapid development, with significant investments from major tech companies, including a commitment of over £31 billion from Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, and OpenAI to enhance AI infrastructure and quantum technology in the UK [3][6][17] - The report highlights the potential for large-scale applications of OCS technology across various fields, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed, low-energy optical switching solutions [2][35] Summary by Sections OCS Market Insights - The OCS technology is positioned as a mainstream direction for next-generation switching technology, showcasing advantages such as high bandwidth capacity and low energy consumption [2][21] - The global OCS switch market is expected to reach $2,022.21 million by 2031, with a CAGR of 17.12% from 2025 to 2031 [16][32] - The report identifies key OCS technology solutions, including MEMS, digital liquid crystal (DLC), and direct beam steering (DBS) [24][27] Quantum Computing Developments - The quantum computing market is projected to grow from $1.1 billion in 2022 to $7.6 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 48.1% [19][51] - Significant advancements in quantum computing architecture have been achieved, including the development of the AshN instruction set architecture, which enhances operational efficiency and reduces error accumulation [18][37] - The report emphasizes the ongoing acceleration of quantum computing technology and its potential for diverse applications [19][51] Communication Industry Dynamics - The communication sector index increased by 0.52% during the week of September 15-19, 2025, outperforming the broader market [11][12] - Key recommended stocks in the communication sector include 中国移动, 中国电信, and 中际旭创, among others [20][8] - The report notes the competitive landscape in the OCS market, with major players like Google expected to dominate the market share [29][32]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points marks the beginning of a preventive easing cycle aimed at addressing potential economic downturn risks without the economy being in a substantial recession [2][9]. - Historical performance indicates that during previous preventive easing cycles, the Chinese A-share market was significantly influenced by domestic economic policies and fundamentals, leading to a lack of uniformity in overall trends. In contrast, the Hong Kong stock market, being more closely tied to U.S. dollar liquidity, typically shows more positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index often experiencing significant gains [2][17]. - The report suggests that liquidity may drive market trends more than fundamentals in the current context, particularly benefiting interest-sensitive sectors such as technology growth, including semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine, as well as leading technology stocks in Hong Kong that benefit from improved liquidity [2][17]. Group 2 - The report recommends focusing on the Hang Seng Technology sector, noting that the recent Federal Reserve meeting did not exceed expectations, and despite a hawkish interpretation of the meeting, the statements made were relatively dovish. The current liquidity situation in Hong Kong is still tight, indicating potential for future upward movement [3][18]. - The semiconductor sector is highlighted due to the testing of DUV lithography machines by SMIC, which strengthens the narrative of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry. This development is expected to catalyze market sentiment positively in the short term [3][18].

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 2025 年 9 月 15 日-9 月 19 日，A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数 涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块 表现相对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分 歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息 25bp 靴 子落地后选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看， 我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市 场强势的科技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行 之中。 热点一：美联储 9 月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入 9 月以来，在美联储公布 9 月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期， 以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9 月 17 日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储 2025 年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市 涨幅过快过高，短期内部分资金趁着降息 25bp 利好的兑现而选择了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant turnaround in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 265 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year, driven by strong revenue growth and effective cost management [2][3]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in its SiC products, with production capacity expansion responding to market demand, particularly in high-end power semiconductor applications [8][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate revenues of 9,340 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 18,703 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.7% [1]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is expected to rise from a loss of 36 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 1,200 million yuan by 2027, indicating a substantial recovery and growth trajectory [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to improve from -0.02 yuan in 2023 to 0.72 yuan in 2027, showcasing the company's potential for profitability [1]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is anticipated to increase from -0.5% in 2023 to 7.0% in 2027, indicating improved efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity [1]. Product and Market Expansion - The company has successfully increased the shipment of its IPM modules and other semiconductor products, particularly in the automotive and renewable energy sectors, with a reported 80% year-on-year growth in IGBT and SiC product revenues [3][8]. - The company is actively expanding its production lines for SiC power devices, with a monthly production capacity of 10,000 6-inch SiC-MOSFET chips established, and plans for further capacity enhancements [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price in the near term [4]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with Q2 revenue reaching a record high for a single quarter, achieving 154 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.29% [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.02%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase, while the net margin was -2.02%, also showing improvement [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end integrated circuit testing capacity to meet the demands of existing and potential customers, with a strong emphasis on R&D to maintain its competitive edge [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 284 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.07 million yuan, an increase of 16.38% year-on-year [1]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is estimated at 604 million yuan, with a growth rate of 23.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 22 million yuan by 2027, with a significant increase in EPS from -0.09 yuan in 2025 to 0.11 yuan in 2027 [1][9]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is implementing a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on wafer processing and intelligent sensing technology to enhance its core competitiveness in the integrated circuit field [3][9]. - The revenue from the wafer thinning business increased by 111.61% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in production efficiency and product yield [3]. - The company is actively developing testing solutions for various applications, including industrial control, high-performance computing, automotive electronics, and AI, positioning itself to benefit from trends in AI computing and automotive intelligence [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 shows a year-on-year increase in net profit, with a significant rise in gross profit margin and a decrease in financial expenses [2][3]. - The company is making substantial progress in multiple key projects, particularly in electronic chemicals and new energy battery materials, which are expected to enhance long-term growth potential [10][11]. - The stability of major product prices is noted, providing support for the company's performance [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.444 billion, a decrease of 3.73% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 35.29% to 334 million [1]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.24%, an increase of 4.66 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 5.83% year-on-year, while investment cash flow improved significantly by 96.42% [3]. Project Development Summary - The company has achieved significant milestones in its key projects, including the successful trial production of an 80,000-ton electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide project and the completion of regulatory procedures for a 71,000-ton wet electronic chemicals project [4][10]. - In the synthetic ammonia project, the company is progressing steadily with a production capacity of 101,800 tons of liquid ammonia and 66,400,000 Nm³ of hydrogen expected upon completion [10]. Future Earnings Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 56.83 billion, 65.44 billion, and 72.04 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.46 billion, 9.86 billion, and 11.73 billion [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company has experienced rapid profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the expansion of innovative products such as ultrasonic fingerprint sensors and light sensors, which have seen increased commercial scale since their introduction in Q4 2024 [2][3] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 43.28%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose by 5.07 percentage points to 19.13% [2] - The company is focused on continuous innovation and has launched several new products, including a new light sensor with glass-plastic hybrid packaging and enhanced NFC solutions, which are expected to drive further growth [3][10] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 4,408 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 4,375 million yuan for 2024A, and an expected increase to 5,288 million yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 20.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow significantly from 165 million yuan in 2023A to 604 million yuan in 2024A, and further to 821 million yuan in 2025E, indicating a year-on-year growth rate of 36.1% [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.36 yuan in 2023A to 1.31 yuan in 2024A, and reach 1.78 yuan in 2025E [1] Product Development and Market Position - The company has established long-term partnerships with major global brands across various sectors, including smartphones and automotive electronics, enhancing its market presence [10] - The global smartphone market is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in shipments, which is expected to benefit the company's product lines, particularly in ultrasonic fingerprint sensors [9][10] - The company is actively developing next-generation products to support a wider range of customer models, aiming to capture a larger market share [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [3][20]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 575 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.69%, and a net profit of 205 million yuan, up 43.50% year-on-year [1][2]. - The growth is attributed to the successful sales of high-value products such as DDR5 SPD chips and automotive-grade EEPROM chips, which have effectively countered the decline in traditional business due to fluctuations in consumer electronics demand [2][7]. - The company's gross margin improved to 60.25%, up 5.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 34.45%, an increase of 7.69 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 703 million yuan in 2023 to 2,364 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -28.2% in 2023, 46.2% in 2024, and continuing strong growth thereafter [1][12]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 100 million yuan in 2023 to 863 million yuan in 2027, with significant year-on-year growth rates, particularly 189.2% in 2024 [1][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.3% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2027, reflecting increasing efficiency in generating profits from equity [1][12]. Market Position and Product Development - The company is one of the few in the industry with capabilities in both industrial-grade and automotive-grade storage chip design, covering a wide range of capacities [2][7]. - The sales and revenue of automotive-grade storage chips and high-performance industrial-grade storage chips have seen rapid growth, contributing significantly to the company's overall business [2][7]. - The demand for DDR5 SPD chips is driven by the increasing penetration of DDR5 memory modules in AI servers, which require more memory than traditional servers, thus providing a new growth impetus for the company [8].