综合宏观与微观信号，下周宜采取"科技为主"策略，近期可以对以下 板块进行关注： （一） 光模块：根据 36 氪的报道，光模块是中国在全球 AI 算力产业链 中确立领先优势的核心环节。 国产企业通过十年出海布局，已占据全球 市场主导地位，2022 年全球前十厂商占 7 席，并在技术迭代（1.6T 量产 进度领先）、客户绑定（深度合作英伟达/谷歌/Meta 等巨头）及成本效率 （人均创收达 300 万元，成本仅为国际同行 1/3）上实现全面超越。当前 海外收入占比超 80%，充分受益全球 AI 算力基建需求爆发。龙头公司通 过全球化产能和供应链整合，持续强化竞争力，行业增长确定性强。 证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 07 月 21 日 投资策略研究 主线或重启：无谓新起点，一直在路上——周度策略行业配置观点 一周热点事件复盘：美联储独立性受到威胁，中国上半年经济数据韧性 仍在，OpenAI 通用智能体 ChatGPT Agent 发布。本周（2025 年 7 月 14 日-2025 年 7 月 18 日）A 股先抑后扬，向上趋势不变，上证指数周涨 0.69%， 深证成指周涨 2.04%，创 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 07 月 21 日 非银行金融 两融规模有望破前高，券商、金融 IT 波动前行-非银周观点 从近期市场交易定价看，公募考核新规基准回补效应持续引发市场关注，市 场量能有所放大，银行、保险板块高位波动，券商、多元金融板块波动震荡。 我们判断，7 月后国内外大事将迎来密集交织期，宏大叙事或是决定市场可 能进一步走强的关键因素，券商为代表的非银金融有望波动突破。交易节奏 而言，市场可能要阶段性聚焦内部问题，包括去产能或推动 PPI 修复，具体 或要看包括 7 月份的政治局会议定调，以及 4 中全会等重磅会议。并购线建 议重点关注以信达证券、首创证券、浙商证券、国联民生、中国银河等为代 表个股；具有估值扩张空间的公司，推荐关注综合能力强、风险资本指标优 化、受益 ETF 发展的华泰证券、中金公司等；同时从赔率弹性角度，建议逢 低关注布局金融 IT 板块，建议重点关注财富趋势、同花顺、九方智投等；互 金平台建议关注东方财富、指南针等；持续关注稳定币效应，如胜利证券公 告 2025H1 中期业绩预告扭亏为盈主要系虚拟资产相关业务收益大幅增长。 十年期国债收益率在 1.66%附近波 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业动态点评 2025 年 07 月 18 日 传媒 AI 多模态应用及 AI Agent 商业化提速，云计算行业有望持续放量 AI 大模型持续迭代，思维深度及推理能力不断强化。我国 AI 大模型持续迭 代，例如 DeepSeek 于 5 月 28 日发布了 R1 推理模型的最新升级版本 DeepSeek-R1-0528，该模型在数学、编程与通用逻辑等多个基准测评中取得 了当前国内所有模型中首屈一指的优异成绩，并且在整体表现上已接近其他 国际顶尖模型，如 o3 与 Gemini-2.5-Pro。相较于旧版 R1，新版在复杂推理 任务中的表现有了显著提升，例如在 AIME 2025 测试中，新版模型准确率由 旧版的 70% 提升至 87.5%。此外，阿里巴巴通义系列大模型亦持续更新， 如通义此前推出 QwenLong-L1-32B 模型性能超越 OpenAI、Claude 等旗舰产 品，在 60K 长文档问答中实现稳定优化与关键信息精准定位。我们认为我国 底层大模型能力持续升级，思维深度、推理、多模态等能力不断强化，有望 带动下游 AI 应用以及 AI Agent 生态的繁荣。 风险提示：AI ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*专题报告 2025 年 07 月 18 日 宏观经济研究 财政政策与居民消费的关系（下） 本文继续研究在债务融资的基础上实施财政政策对居民消费的影响。分为无 资本情况下（纯消费经济）和有资本情况下两种情况，在无资本情况下又比 较了财政冲击和技术冲击带来的影响，结果显示技术冲击对各个经济指标都 带来了改善，而财政冲击只带来产出的增加。 在有资本情况下我们又比较了不同生产函数、不同劳动供给弹性、不同财政 反应系数下财政冲击的影响，结果显示 C-D 生产函数在挤出效应和债务累积 上的影响小于内生增长模型，但增产效果还是内生增长模型更快。不过着眼 长期利益来看，仍然是 C-D 生产函数更胜一筹；劳动供给弹性的变化对 居民消费的影响几乎消失了，这与财政平衡准则下的反应明显不同；最后 就是财政反应系数的高低对财政可持续性有着非常明显的作用，系数越高 财政效率越高，债务压力越小。 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 1、《财政政策与居民消费的关系（上）》2025-07-08 2、《反内卷与市场化竞争》2025-07-11 3、《为什么要转型为消费驱动型社会？》2025-06-11 鉴于此，本文测算中国 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company has a well-established brand matrix based on skin science and biological science, focusing on the research, design, production, sales, and service of various cosmetics [1][9]. - The main brand, Marubi, has successfully implemented a big product strategy, particularly in eye care, maintaining the top sales position in this category for three consecutive years [2]. - The PL brand, focusing on base makeup, has achieved significant sales milestones, with multiple products exceeding 100 million yuan in annual GMV [3]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2,226 million yuan in 2023, growing to 6,051 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.6% [1][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 259 million yuan in 2023 to 729 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][10]. - The company's gross margin improved to 73.7% in 2024, up 3.01 percentage points year-on-year, driven by optimized product structure and cost control [8]. Brand Strategy - Marubi's core philosophy is centered around "focusing on reducing every fine line," which has solidified its brand identity in eye care and wrinkle reduction [2]. - The PL brand emphasizes user-friendly and high-quality products, reinforcing its market position in the base makeup category [3]. Market Position - Marubi has become a leading brand in the domestic mid-to-high-end skincare market, while PL has established itself as a strong player in the makeup segment [1][3]. - The company aims to leverage global leading technologies to develop high-quality products, guided by a long-term strategy focused on "technology-driven beauty and health" [9].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expectation that the overall performance of the industry will surpass the market in the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The UK government has restarted a £63 million subsidy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) to enhance infrastructure and support economic growth, contrasting with the US's recent cancellation of NEV tax credits [1]. - The subsidy plan aims to lower energy costs for households and businesses, improve charging infrastructure, and create thousands of green jobs as part of a broader transformation initiative [1][2]. - The UK has reached a tariff agreement with the US, allowing the export of 100,000 vehicles annually at a reduced tariff rate, which is expected to boost local automotive production [2]. - The UK is projected to see a significant increase in the registration of new energy vehicles, with pure electric vehicle sales expected to rise by 21.4% in 2024 [3]. - A £1 billion investment from the UK government to a Chinese battery company aims to enhance local battery production capacity significantly, supporting the domestic NEV industry [3][6]. Summary by Sections Government Initiatives - The UK government has allocated £63 million for NEV subsidies to improve infrastructure and reduce energy costs for various sectors [1]. - The initiative includes investments in charging infrastructure and support for households without private driveways [1]. Market Trends - In 2024, the UK is expected to register approximately 1.95 million new passenger cars, with a notable shift towards NEVs [3]. - Traditional fuel vehicle sales are declining, while sales of pure electric and hybrid vehicles are on the rise, indicating a market transition [3]. International Cooperation - The UK has secured a tariff agreement with the US, allowing for a significant export quota of vehicles, which is expected to encourage local manufacturing [2]. - The investment in battery production by a Chinese company highlights the growing collaboration between the UK and China in the NEV sector [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating to the companies listed, indicating a projected stock price increase relative to the industry index over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The Gansu province has introduced a "fire-storage complementary" capacity pricing mechanism, which aims to establish the value of system-regulating power sources [1][3]. - The new pricing mechanism is designed to support the construction of large clean energy bases and promote the transformation of coal power towards a dual focus on basic security and system regulation [3]. - The capacity price for coal power units and new storage on the grid is set at 330 yuan per kilowatt per year, with a two-year execution period starting January 1, 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Ratings - Dragon Power (001289.SZ): Increase, EPS 2025E: 0.79, PE 2025E: 20.68 [1] - Zhongmin Energy (600163.SH): Increase, EPS 2025E: 0.40, PE 2025E: 13.10 [1] - Chuan Investment Energy (600674.SH): Increase, EPS 2025E: 1.05, PE 2025E: 15.44 [1] - Guodian Power (600795.SH): Buy, EPS 2025E: 0.42, PE 2025E: 11.19 [1] Mechanism for New Energy Projects - The fixed electricity price for existing renewable energy projects is set at 0.3078 yuan per kilowatt-hour, with a total scale of 15.4 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. - New energy projects will have their electricity price determined through a competitive bidding process, with a maximum mechanism electricity limit of 80% of their grid-connected electricity [2]. Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The capacity pricing mechanism aims to enhance the system's regulatory capabilities and support the transition of coal power to a dual role [3]. - Coal power units will receive full capacity compensation, while storage projects will gain equal status in system capacity, significantly improving their profitability [3]. - The policy redefines the roles of coal power and storage in the energy system, ensuring stability in high renewable energy penetration scenarios [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target of outperforming the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 221 to 260 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 70% to 100% [2][3]. - The growth in profit is primarily driven by sales increases in Coenzyme Q10, Vitamin A, and domestic health product businesses [2][3]. - The company has a strong market position in Coenzyme Q10, holding approximately 50% market share as of March 2025, and is leveraging synthetic biology technology to enhance product offerings and reduce costs [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3,852 million yuan in 2025, 4,490 million yuan in 2026, and 5,103 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 18.9%, 16.6%, and 13.7% [1][8]. - The net profit is projected to reach 510 million yuan in 2025, 680 million yuan in 2026, and 848 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 49.2%, 33.4%, and 24.6% respectively [1][8]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 7.0% in 2023 to 15.5% by 2027 [1][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 43.1 in 2023 to 14.1 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [1][8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][47] Core Insights - The number of newly awarded electrolyzer projects has slightly decreased, but key performance indicators such as hydrogen production energy consumption and decay rate have seen breakthroughs, suggesting a focus on companies at the forefront of electrolyzer technology [2][37] - The midstream sector is accelerating the development of hydrogen transportation and the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, indicating a recommendation to pay attention to companies with hydrogen transportation capabilities [2][37] - Two hydrogen heavy truck projects were opened for bidding this week, highlighting the potential investment opportunities in companies related to hydrogen vehicles [2][37] Industry Performance - As of July 11, 2025, the hydrogen energy index closed at 2189.60 points, with a weekly increase of 2.55% and a year-to-date increase of 23.23% [8][11] - The hydrogen energy index ranked 38th among the Shenwan secondary industry rankings this week, showing significant improvement [8] - The top five companies in the hydrogen energy sector by weekly increase were: Hemei Group (36.12%), Huaguang Huaneng (31.74%), Haosen Intelligent (31.10%), Zhongyou Capital (27.78%), and Houpu Co., Ltd. (26.16%) [14] Industry Dynamics - Domestic initiatives include the promotion of 100 hydrogen-powered public vehicles and 1000 hydrogen logistics vehicles in Foshan Nanhai, and the successful first flight of China's first four-seat hydrogen fuel cell aircraft RX4M [2][33] - The UK government has invested £500 million to develop hydrogen energy infrastructure, aiming to establish a regional hydrogen transport and storage network [34] - The EU has passed the Low Carbon Hydrogen Authorization Act, defining low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives [34] Company Dynamics - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Shanneng Electric and Shuangliang Group to promote the collaborative layout of the "light-storage-hydrogen" industry [36] - The world's largest green hydrogen ammonia project has been put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 320,000 tons [36] - The first phase of the integrated wind-solar hydrogen project in Linxi County has been approved, with a total investment of 1.1464677 billion yuan [36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][30]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate data continues to bottom out, while infrastructure investment is expected to gain momentum in the second half of 2025 [11][17]. - Cement and glass production showed a slight narrowing in decline, with cement production down 4.3% year-on-year and glass production down 5.2% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Cement and Glass Production - In the first half of 2025, national cement production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 5.3% in June, slightly better than the 8.1% decline in May [6][9]. - National glass production saw a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% in the first half of 2025, with a monthly decline of 4.5% in June, also showing improvement from May's 5.7% decline [9][12]. Downstream Investment Situation - In June 2025, the year-on-year changes in commodity housing sales, construction, new starts, and completion areas were -6.5%, 4.8%, -9.5%, and -2.2%, respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in new starts and completions compared to May [11][12]. - The broad inventory de-stocking cycle in June 2025 was 5.31 years, unchanged from the previous month [14]. - Real estate investment and infrastructure investment in June 2025 showed year-on-year changes of -12.4% and 5.3%, respectively, with real estate investment's decline widening [17].