证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 投资策略研究 科技板块当前的分化状态——周度策略行业配置观点 在数字经济政策推动下，金融科技领域的财税数字化、数字货币等场景加 一周热点事件复盘："人工智能+"行动意见发布，"沪六条"放宽购房条 件、美国上修二季度 GDP、美团 Q2 净利同比骤降。本周（2025 年 8 月 25 日-2025 年 8 月 29 日）A 股波动幅度增大，主要指数产生了一定的分化， 上证指数周 0.84%，深证成指周 4.36%，创业板指周 7.74%，科创 50 周 7.49%，全市场日均成交额 2.98 万亿元。A 股呈现沪弱深强、大盘领跑的 格局，成长板块表现强劲，市场交投活跃但资金面呈现一定分歧。政策层 面，国务院印发"人工智能+"行动意见，催化 AI 产业链估值扩张，通信 设备、电子等板块受提振。同时，半导体行业需求端受益于全球数字化浪 潮，汽车电子、数据中心等下游领域订单增长，推动天孚通信、中际旭创 等龙头股上涨。港股方面，美团净利润大幅下降导致恒生科技为代表的港 股在周中产生回调。 伴随指数整体上扬，近期 TMT 板块交易拥挤度显著升高， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in H1 2025, primarily driven by the traditional business of glass processing related to display panels and devices, with revenue from optical glass processing and optical display devices increasing by 30.11% and 10.40% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The company is experiencing an expansion in its glass-based Mini LED production, with successful mass production and commercialization of products, which is expected to enhance its market competitiveness and profitability [3][10] - Despite the revenue growth, the company reported an expanded net loss in H1 2025 due to high R&D expenses and impairment provisions totaling 14.68 million [2][10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,814 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.8%, and is expected to reach 4,934 million by 2027, with a growth rate of 44.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -5 million in 2023, -122 million in 2024, and is expected to turn positive at 220 million by 2027 [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 19.03%, an increase of 2.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -3.41% [2] Product Development and Market Position - The company is actively developing glass-based circuit board products for various applications, including MiniLED backlighting and MicroLED direct display, with significant recognition from major brand clients [3][9] - The company plans to raise up to 1.5 billion for expanding its glass-based MiniLED backlight module project, which will enhance its production capacity and product structure [3][8]

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 09 月 01 日 英诺激光（301021.SZ） 25H1 利润同比实现扭亏为盈，技术优势持续强化 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 368 | 447 | 534 | 701 | 903 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 15.1 | 21.4 | 19.7 | 31.1 | 28.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -4 | 22 | 51 | 80 | 131 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -119.9 | 585.2 | 135.7 | 54.8 | 64.6 | | ROE（%） | -0.5 | 1.8 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 10.6 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | -0.03 | 0.14 | 0.34 | 0.52 | 0.86 | | P/E（倍） | -1320.6 | 272.2 | 115.4 | 74.6 | 45.3 | | P/B（倍） | 6.1 | ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in market activity in August, with various funding sources showing heightened engagement, particularly in sectors such as electronics, non-bank finance, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - Margin trading has surpassed 2 trillion yuan and continues to rise, indicating a strong risk appetite among investors [1] - Retail investors have shown a steady increase in funding, although their growth remains below previous peaks from 2015, 2019, and 2020, reflecting a lingering "fear of heights" sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - Private equity funds have seen a positive feedback loop with market performance, with a consistent increase in monthly issuances since September 2024, contributing significantly to the current "slow bull" market [1][2] - Public funds have also experienced a notable rise in issuance compared to last year, particularly in equity and ETF funds, with the stock fund index showing an upward trend since last October [2] - Insurance and foreign capital have been entering the market steadily, especially following the introduction of new policies, with expectations for further growth in insurance capital inflows [2] Group 3 - The report suggests that despite potential policy changes in September, the overall positive stance of domestic policies remains, particularly in technology sectors such as computing power, AI, and consumer electronics [3] - New consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and certain cyclical industries are expected to maintain upward momentum supported by clear policy backing [3] - The financial sector retains investment value during periods of high market sentiment [3] Group 4 - The recommended stock portfolio for September includes companies like China Mobile, Hongri Da, and Tianfu Communication, focusing on sectors such as telecommunications, non-bank finance, and technology [5][12] - The performance of the August portfolio showed an average increase of 23.23%, with standout stocks like Nanya New Materials and Tonghuashun achieving gains of 55.79% and 45.68% respectively [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors such as communication, non-bank finance, technology, and chemicals in the current investment landscape [5][12]

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 09 月 01 日 分析师 汪 毅 执业证书编号：S1070512120003 邮箱：yiw@cgws.com 分析师 王 正洁 执业证书编号：S1070524070004 邮箱：wazhjie@cgws.com 相关研究 投资策略研究 并购重组周报（2025/08/22-2025/08/28） 2025/08/22-2025/08/28 期间，新增并购重组的上市公司有 3家，分别 为得邦照明、东珠生态、南新制药，涉及的并购重组事件有 3个，涉及的上 市公司均为竞买方，本期间并购重组上市公司涉及的行业有家用电器、建筑 装饰、医药生物。 得邦照明：公司主要从事照明应用产品及相关业务的研发、生产和销售，涵 盖通用照明和车用照明两大核心产品板块，并涉及照明工程施工及其他辅助 业务。2024 年，公司营业收入达到 44.31 亿元，其中通用照明业务贡献最大， 实现收入 37.85 亿元，但同比下降 6.35%；而车载业务实现收入 5.96 亿元， 同比下降 4.43%。照明工程施工业务收入为 1.14 亿元，同比下降 36.48%。 从成本结构来看，材料成本占比较大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][17]. Core Viewpoints - The company is accelerating the expansion of hollow-core fiber production, driven by dual engines of energy and communication, which supports its long-term development [1]. - The company has a robust order backlog, particularly in the fields of 5G, IoT, and large models, with significant growth in marine energy and communication projects [3]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue growth and increasing net profit over the next few years, supported by ongoing investments in AI and new infrastructure [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 47,622 million yuan in 2023 to 81,827 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.1% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 2,154 million yuan in 2023 to 4,283 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 12.7% [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 7.9% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2027 [1]. Operational Highlights - The company has successfully established a complete optical communication industry chain, enhancing its competitive position in the market [2]. - Significant investments are being made in high-voltage transmission equipment and offshore wind power technologies, which are expected to drive future growth [2]. - The company has initiated the construction of a 200-acre AI advanced fiber material R&D and manufacturing center, set to be completed by February 2026, which will enhance its delivery capabilities [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][16]. Core Viewpoints - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from 6,019 million yuan in 2023 to 17,292 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23.4% [1][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise significantly from 43 million yuan in 2023 to 1,348 million yuan in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 493.8% in 2024 [1][8]. - The company is actively expanding into the robotics industry, which is anticipated to become a second growth curve, leveraging its core technologies in precision components and molds [3][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 6,019 million yuan in 2023 to 17,292 million yuan in 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 4.6%, 18.4%, 43.7%, 36.9%, and 23.4% respectively [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 43 million yuan in 2023 to 1,348 million yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates of -58.7%, 493.8%, 99.7%, 92.8%, and 37.9% [1][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 1.6% in 2023 to 23.4% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [1][9]. Business Segment Performance - The precision structural components business is projected to generate 32.00 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 28.62% and a gross margin of 14.83% [2]. - The mold business is expected to achieve 2.31 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 15.22% increase, although its gross margin is projected to decline to 51.10% [2]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, reaching 1.65 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, which constitutes 4.09% of its revenue [2]. Robotics Industry Development - The company has made substantial progress in the robotics sector, developing various products such as linear actuators and precision components, which are now ready for mass production [3][8]. - The company has established automated production lines for planetary roller screws and linear actuators, enhancing production capacity and efficiency [3][8]. - The integration of advanced technologies in the robotics field is expected to position the company favorably for future growth, with ongoing collaborations with major domestic and international clients [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][16]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 3.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.91%, and net profit of 29 million yuan, up 47.85% year-on-year [2][3]. - The semiconductor business, particularly the IC packaging substrate segment, is a focus area for technological enhancement and customer expansion, with revenue from this segment growing by 36.04% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company is optimistic about future performance due to ongoing product upgrades and increasing capacity utilization, projecting net profits of 93 million yuan, 280 million yuan, and 742 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 5.36 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.57 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.1% [1]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 198 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 742 million yuan by 2027, reflecting significant growth rates in subsequent years [1][8]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 2.0% in 2023 to 11.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [1][8]. Business Segment Insights - The PCB business generated 2.448 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 26.32%, while the semiconductor segment achieved 831 million yuan in revenue, marking a 38.39% increase [2][3]. - The CSP packaging substrate business is expanding into high-value markets, including automotive, with increasing capacity utilization and a focus on high-end products [3]. - The company is actively pursuing both domestic and international clients to enhance its market presence and secure future production opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable overall profitability in the first half of 2025, supported by the gradual ramp-up of new production capacity [1][9]. - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 is reported at 1.113 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 276 million yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company is leveraging increased production volume to offset price declines due to raw material cost fluctuations, resulting in stable gross margins [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025E at 2.438 billion yuan, 2026E at 2.730 billion yuan, and 2027E at 3.004 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 12.0%, and 10.0% respectively [1][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 578 million yuan in 2025E, 666 million yuan in 2026E, and 776 million yuan in 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of 6.9%, 15.2%, and 16.5% [1][9]. - The report indicates a stable return on equity (ROE) forecasted at 15.3% for 2025E, 15.5% for 2026E, and 15.7% for 2027E [1][9]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is expected to gradually release new production capacity, with significant projects nearing completion, including a 70,000-ton water glass project and a 25,000-ton high-dispersion silica project in Thailand [8][9]. - The report notes that the company has already achieved commercial supply of biomass (rice husk) high-dispersion silica, enhancing its production capacity advantage [9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The new projects are anticipated to strengthen the company's competitive position in the market, particularly in the biomass silica segment, while expanding its product offerings [9]. - The company’s stock is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.6 for 2024A, decreasing to 10.9 by 2027E, indicating potential for valuation improvement as earnings grow [1][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current stock - bond state may be what the authorities desire, namely "a slow - bull in stocks and no continuous sharp decline in bonds." The monetary authorities maintain liquidity but avoid rapid policy rate cuts, using more structural tools and supporting the real estate market. This encourages the transfer of funds from real estate and bonds to equities, achieving a slow - bull in stocks and preventing continuous sharp declines in bonds and real estate to ensure financial stability [1][88]. - In September, the stock - bond state is likely to remain unchanged, and the headwind period for the bond market may not be over. The 10 - year Treasury yield has two pressure levels: 1.80% and 1.90%. Currently, it hovers around 1.78%. Short - term bond market operations may require patience, with more focus on band - trading during pullbacks. After two major macro - events in September (domestic military parade and Fed's decision on interest rate cuts), the bond market may enter a favorable period in late September and the fourth quarter [2][91]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Current Open Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Environment**: The economic fundamentals are still "weak." In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, with core CPI rising to 0.8%. PPI's year - on - year decline remained at 3.6%, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Financial data showed a seasonal decline in social financing, a contraction in credit financing, and a negative increase in new RMB loans for the first time in 20 years. Some economic indicators were divided, and domestic economic recovery was restricted by multiple factors [7][8]. - **Policy Environment**: The Fed's dovish stance is conducive to the implementation of domestic aggregate monetary policy in the fourth quarter. The central bank mainly uses structural policies and guides funds through a two - step allocation: in asset allocation, it guides funds from bonds to stocks; in economic development, it focuses on consumption, infrastructure, and real estate in sequence. If three of the four conditions are met, the probability of a domestic central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is high, and currently, three conditions are gradually being met [24][27]. - **Bank Funding**: The bank funding situation has been relatively loose since July, with a slight reduction in net central bank money injection in July compared to June. As of August 14, the central bank's money withdrawal was 43,530 billion yuan, and the injection was 17,265 billion yuan. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and market interest rates such as DR007 and FR007 showed a downward trend [28][31]. - **Corporate Profit and Financing Environment**: From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size continued to decline year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, below the boom - bust line. In July, corporate short - term and long - term loans decreased, and only bill financing increased year - on - year. Overall, industrial profits are still suppressed by price factors, and the financing structure is tilting towards bonds [37]. 3.2 Interest Rate Market Analysis - **Primary Market**: In July, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds was 3.2 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.53 trillion yuan. As of August 14, the total issuance was 1.9 trillion yuan. The issuance interest rates of four types of interest - rate bonds (Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit) have shown a trend of convergence since January 2025, with the Treasury bond rate rising by more than 15BP [43]. - **Secondary Market**: From July to August 2025, the short - end interest rates of Treasury bonds remained stable, while the medium - and long - end rates generally increased, making the yield curve steeper. In July, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.65% to 1.70%, and in August, it fluctuated between 1.70% - 1.79%. The trend of China Development Bank bonds was different from that of Treasury bonds, and the spread between them widened [48][53]. 3.3 Credit Market Analysis - **Primary Market**: In July, the net financing of credit bonds was strong, with a net financing of 3,519 billion yuan. As of August 14, the issuance scale was 6,364.05 billion yuan, and the repayment amount increased to 8,742 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate of credit bonds in July was 1.91%, down 30BP year - on - year [67]. - **Secondary Market**: As of August 14, the yields of AAA - rated corporate bonds of various maturities declined, with the long - end decline being greater. Credit spreads continued to converge, and the spreads between AA and AAA - rated corporate bonds also narrowed [73]. - **Real Estate Bonds**: In July, the net financing of real estate bonds turned positive, with a net financing of 44 billion yuan. As of August 14, the net financing was negative. The transaction volume of commercial housing has been at a low level in the past five years, and as of August 9, the average weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 13.31% year - on - year [78][81]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In July 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 423 billion yuan, remaining at a historical low. This reflects the pressure on the financing environment of urban investment platforms and the acceleration of their transformation process [85]. 3.4 September Bond Market Strategy - The current stock - bond state is expected to continue in September. The bond market may still face headwinds, with 1.80% and 1.90% as two pressure levels for the 10 - year Treasury yield. Short - term bond market operations should focus on band - trading during pullbacks, and the bond market may improve after two major macro - events in September [2][91].