2024年09月08日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 医药生物 投资评级 增持 中航证券医药生物行业周报: 子板块 2024H 业 绩分化,期待后续恢复表现 维持评级 行业走势图 报告摘要 投资要点: 本期 (08.28-09.07) 上证指数收于 2765.81, 下跌 2.69%; 沪深 300 指数收于 3231.35，下跌 2.71%；中小 100 指数收于 3231.35，下 跌 295.15%;本期申万医药行业指数收于 6316.92, 下跌 2.05%,在申 万 31 个一级行业指数中涨跌幅排名居第 19 位。 重要资讯: ◆ 学习贯彻党的二十届三中全会精神研讨班 国家卫生健康委在甘肃兰州举办学习贯彻党的二十届三中全会精神研 讨班,推动全系统在学习贯彻全会精神上走深走实。国家卫生健康委党组 书记、主任雷海潮出席研讨班并讲话。 促进医疗、医保、医药协同发展和治理,发挥综合医改联系省、公立 医院改革与高质量发展示范城市、试点医院等作用，进一步推广以三明为 代表的医改经验。实施健康优先发展战略，推动在经济社会发展规划、资 源配置和财政投入上突出健康目标,以完善的治理制度、法规体系护航健 康优先发展 ...

Inflation Data - August CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly above the 10-year average of 0.3% for the same month[1] - August core CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the 10-year average of 0.1%[1] - Year-on-year CPI for August recorded at 0.6%, slightly below the market expectation of 0.7%[1] - August food CPI rose significantly by 2.8% year-on-year, contributing to the overall CPI increase[1] Consumer Behavior - Excluding food and energy, August core CPI showed weak performance, indicating weak consumer spending[1] - Major categories such as clothing and housing saw decreased year-on-year CPI growth or expanded declines compared to July, reflecting weak consumer sentiment[1] PPI Trends - August PPI decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, a larger decline compared to July's 1.0%[13] - Month-on-month PPI fell by 0.7%, worsening from July's 0.5% decline[13] - The decline in PPI is attributed to weak domestic demand and falling prices of major commodities like steel and cement[13] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to have some upward potential due to seasonal factors affecting fresh produce prices and a potential rise in pork prices[10] - The recovery of PPI will depend on external economic conditions, real estate market stabilization, and domestic demand recovery policies[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with revenue showing significant year-on-year growth despite some pressure on profitability [2]. - The company is experiencing steady capacity release, solidifying its position in the industry, particularly in the N-type solar module segment, which has become mainstream in tenders [2][9]. - The company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, achieving remarkable growth in revenue from international sales [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.113 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 43 million yuan, down 61.2% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 8.5%, a slight decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 0.5%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s operational efficiency has improved, with inventory turnover days and accounts payable turnover days showing significant improvement compared to the previous year [2]. Market Demand and Trends - Global photovoltaic demand continues to rise, with China adding 123.5 GW of new installations in the first seven months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.1% [2][9]. - The U.S. also saw a significant increase in new installations, with 15.6 GW added in H1 2024, up 38.6% year-on-year [2][11]. - Despite the overall market pressure, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for N-type modules [2]. Capacity and Production - The company has achieved a production capacity of 14 GW for TOPCon cells and approximately 30 GW for modules, which supports its strong shipment rankings in the industry [2][12]. - In H1 2024, the company shipped approximately 10-11 GW of photovoltaic modules, ranking eighth globally in terms of shipment volume [2]. Overseas Expansion - The company’s overseas revenue reached 1.811 billion yuan in H1 2024, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 204.4%, accounting for 22.3% of total revenue [2][12]. - The gross margin for overseas sales improved to 10.1%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating successful market penetration and operational efficiency [2][12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to show a trend of increasing volume and stable profits, with revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 set at 1.1 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these forecasts are 97, 40, and 23 times [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guirui Technology (600562) is "Buy" with a target price of 18.00 CNY, indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights steady growth in the radar business, with H1 2024 achieving revenue of 1.559 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million CNY, up 3.14% [1][4]. - The gross margin reached a new high of 41.40%, an increase of 6.52 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 22.17%, up 0.68 percentage points [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading provider of radar equipment in China, focusing on radar, industrial software, and smart transportation sectors, with a mission to support national manufacturing and defense innovation [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Guirui Technology reported revenue of 1.559 billion CNY and a net profit of 346 million CNY, with significant improvements in profitability metrics [1][4]. - Q2 2024 saw revenue of 996 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77.30% [1][4]. - The company’s revenue from radar equipment reached 1.33 billion CNY in H1 2024, marking a 12.21% increase, and accounted for 85.32% of total revenue [4][6]. Business Segments 1. **Radar Equipment Business**: - Revenue of 1.33 billion CNY in H1 2024, with a net profit contribution from meteorological and air traffic control radar significantly increasing [4][6]. - The company secured large orders in Jiangsu and Shandong provinces for its X-band and L-band radar products [4][6]. 2. **Industrial Software and Intelligent Manufacturing**: - Revenue decreased to 102 million CNY, down 25.59%, but the segment's revenue share slightly increased [4][6]. - The company successfully bid for multiple digital transformation projects in military repair factories [4][6]. 3. **Smart Transportation Business**: - Revenue fell to 127 million CNY, a decrease of 46.34%, but the company is expanding its project portfolio in urban rail transit [4][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its leading position in radar technology and the expansion of its digital economy initiatives [6][9]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 3.599 billion CNY, 3.974 billion CNY, and 4.374 billion CNY, with net profits of 664 million CNY, 736 million CNY, and 817 million CNY respectively [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][13] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 33.457 billion yuan, an increase of 11.84% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.52% to 1.691 billion yuan [1] - The company has seen a steady increase in new orders, with effective new orders amounting to 56.073 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.77% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for coal-fired power and nuclear power, with a leading market share in the equipment sector [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 33.457 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.36% and a net margin of 5.49% [1] - The second quarter revenue was 18.404 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, but the net profit decreased by 20.08% to 786 million yuan [1] - The company’s new effective orders in July 2024 reached 62.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [1] Order Growth - The company’s new orders in the clean and efficient energy equipment sector amounted to 25.339 billion yuan, accounting for 45.19% of total new orders [1] - The hydropower sector saw significant order growth, with new effective orders reaching 4.69 billion yuan, a record high for the same period [1] - The company’s market share in the coal-fired power equipment sector is leading, with a market share of 38% in 2023 [1] Industry Outlook - The national electricity demand continues to rise, with a total electricity consumption of 4.66 trillion kWh in the first half of 2024, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to maintain a certain scale of demand for coal-fired power even after the completion of the "14th Five-Year" coal power installation targets [1] - The nuclear power sector is also expected to grow rapidly, with the company having a market share of 40% in nuclear power equipment [1]

23-09 2024年09月07日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 农林牧渔 农业周观点：生猪行情景气，产能增幅收窄 报告摘要 ◆ 本周行情 申万农林牧渔行业 (-1.80%), 申万行业排名 (13/31); 上证指数 (-2.69%), 沪深 300 (-2.71%), 中小 100 (-2.95%); | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | | | | | | | | | *ST 傲农 | 华英农业 | 京粮控股 | 天马科技 | 万辰集团 | | 涨幅前五 | 11.5% | 10. 8% | 10. 1% | 4. 8% | 3. 3% | | 跌幅前五 | 秋乐种业 | 国授中鲁 | 国联水产 | 冠农股份 | 科前生物 | | | -11. 4% | -10. 6% | -6. 1% | -5.8% | -5. 6% | 资料来源：iFind，中航证券研究所签理 ◆ 简要回顾观点 行业周观点：《24H1 养殖景气回升，宠 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [21]. Core Views - The company's mid-year performance exceeded expectations, marking a turning point in profitability despite short-term pressures from downstream demand [2]. - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing short-term disruptions due to a slowdown in installation demand in the US and China, although both markets show some resilience [2]. - The decline in raw material prices is expected to enhance profitability, and the company maintains a leading position in the industry with its high-quality capacity layout [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.499 billion yuan, up 38.1% year-on-year. The gross margin was 23.8%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points, and the net margin was 14.0%, up 2.8 percentage points [2]. - The operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow of 1.746 billion yuan, a notable recovery from a negative 845 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic market is under pressure, with new installations in China reaching 123.5 GW from January to July 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. In the US, new installations were 15.6 GW, up 38.6% year-on-year. However, the growth rate has slowed compared to last year, with demand growth lagging behind capacity expansion [2]. - As of the end of August 2024, the inventory of photovoltaic glass companies reached 35.8 days, the highest level since 2023, indicating a deteriorating supply-demand balance in the market [2]. Profitability and Capacity - The company's photovoltaic glass revenue for H1 2024 was 9.659 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The gross margin for this segment was 24.7%, up 4.7 percentage points due to low prices of key raw materials like soda ash and natural gas [2]. - The total production capacity as of June 2024 was 23,000 tons per day, with 2,600 tons in cold repair status. The company is actively managing its capacity in response to market conditions [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain a stable trend in both volume and profit, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.76 billion yuan, 3.63 billion yuan, and 4.34 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Corresponding PE ratios are expected to be 15, 12, and 10 [2].

主要数据 上证指数 2765.8066 沪深300 3231.3457 深证成指 8130.7698 2024年09月08日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 8 月非农报告不甚明朗，美联储降息幅度仍存变数 2024 年 9 月 2 日-9 月 8 日周报 8月非农报告不甚明朗,美联储降息幅度仍存变数 继通胀数据连续处于降温趋势后,对于经济发展和通胀下降的天平两端,美联储近 期倒向前者,因此市场对于经济数据敏感度上升,降息预期随之波动;市场对于经济能 否实现软着陆的担忧使得金融市场波动性增大。9月6日,美国劳工部发布了8月的非 农就业报告,数据喜忧参半,对９月议息会议的指示作用不甚明朗。8 月非农就业人数 增加14.2万,但不及市场预期的16.1万,再添劳动力市场放缓的迹象;但是失业率小 幅下降0.1PCTS至4.2%,5个月来首次下行。 就业数据小幅推升了市场的降息预期,根据CME Fedwatch 的数据,截止9月7 日,虽然市场预期 9 月美联储降息 50BP 的概率仍就维持在 30%,但是主流预期为 11 月、12月将连续有两次幅度 50BP 的降息,年内总体降息幅度升至 125BP。金融市场对 最新 ...

2024年09月 07 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 美联储逐渐接近降息，市场风格是否会反转? \n报告摘要 | 作者 | | | | | 核心观点: | 董忠云 | 分析师 | | | | ◆ 近期市场出现风格切换迹象,前期持续震荡上行的大盘、价值风格 | | SAC 执业证书: S0640515120001 | | | | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | | 在 8 月底转向小盘、成长风格。因此投资者关注两个问题。 | | 邮箱: dongzy@avicsec.com ...

2024年09月07日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 AI 硬件需求持续增长，商业化应用有望加速落地 本周行情: 社会服务（申万）板块指数周涨跌幅为-1.01%,在申万 一级行业涨跌幅中排名7/31。 � 各基准指数周涨跌幅情况为：各基准指数周涨跌幅情况为: 社会服 务 (-1.01%）、深证成指（-2.61%）、创业板指（-2.68%）、上证 指数（-2.69%）、沪深300（-2.71%）。 � � � � 子行业涨跌幅排名:教育（3.83%）、旅游及景区（3.54%）、酒 店餐饮（1.05%）、体育Ⅱ（0.46%）、专业服务（-2.36%）。 个股涨跌幅排名前五: *ST 开元 (22.06%)、中国高科 (12.08%)、 祥源文旅 (11.86%）、兰生股份 (11.66%）、凯文教育 (6.38%) 。 个股涨跌幅排名后五:国检集团(-14.86%)、建科股份 (-12.05%)、 国缆检测（-8.14%）、建研院（-7.69%）、谱尼测试（-7.51%）。 核心观点: 根据市场研究机构 Canalys 的最新预测，随着 Lunar Lake 处 理器的推出，英特尔在 A ...