2024年09月07 E 证券研究报告|行业研究|军工行业点评 国防军工 投资评级 增持 维持评级 军工行业周报:从中国船舶吸并中国重工看军工行业 并购逻辑 报告摘要 核心观点 9月2日晚,中国船舶、中国重工公告,中国船舶重工股份有限公 司与中国船舶工业股份有限公司正在筹划由中国船舶通过向公司全体 股东发行 A 股股票的方式换股吸收合并中国重工。这一公告再次引爆 了市场对于军工行业并购、央企资产注入的预期,如昆船智能 (+20%)、 中船科技(+9.99%)、中船汉光(+9.09%)、中船应急(+7.39%)、久 之洋(+4.65%)等中船系上市公司均在消息发布次日出现一定上涨。 对于本次上市公司"两船合并"我们给出如下判断: 1 上市公司层面的"两船合并"并非是无风起浪，早在两船集团 合并后的 2021 年中国船舶集团便承诺"在 5 年内稳妥推进符合注入上 市公司的相关资产及业务整合以解决同业竞争问题",本次整合是预期 之中; 2 7月末中国重工集中对下资产进行处置与配置,包括购买港船 重工相关民船建造资产及武船航融 100%股权,出售渤船重工 100%股 权、宜昌船机停业解散等,为后续上市公司的"两船合并 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2] Core Views - The company's asset management and credit businesses achieved positive growth, and its IPO market share increased [2] - The company's investment banking business maintained its leading position, with a significant increase in IPO market share [3] - The asset management business grew against the trend, with an increase in management scale [4] - The brokerage business continued to face pressure, showing a slight decline [5] - The company's interest income increased, while its margin financing market share decreased [8] - The proprietary business was a major drag on the company's performance [9] - The report predicts that the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023-2025 will be 1.15 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.75 yuan, respectively, and the net asset value per share will be 15.25 yuan, 16.07 yuan, and 16.91 yuan, respectively [10] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 121.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.17% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.55% [2] - The company's ROE for the first half of 2023 was 4.53%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The company's investment banking revenue was 3.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.23% [3] - The company's asset management business achieved net income of 11.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.25% [4] - The company's brokerage business achieved net income of 13.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.57% [5] - The company's interest income was 3.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45% [8] - The company's proprietary business achieved net income of 15.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.05% [9] Market Position - The company ranked second in the industry in terms of equity underwriting amount, with a total of 121.21 billion yuan [3] - The company ranked first in the industry in terms of IPO sponsorship projects, with 5 projects and an underwriting scale of 5.45 billion yuan [3] - The company's IPO underwriting market share increased from 1.55% in 2022 to 12.15% [3] - The company ranked third in the industry in terms of bond underwriting, with a total of 1,454 projects and a total amount of 1,545.55 billion yuan [3] - The company's asset management scale reached 1,215.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45% [4] - The company's margin financing balance was 121.21 billion yuan, with a market share of 5.13% [8] Future Outlook - The report expects the company's performance to improve as the market recovers, consolidating its leading position in the industry [10] - The company's development is expected to accelerate if it successfully sells its AssetMark equity [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][11]. Core Views - The company is in the process of establishing a new business model in educational publishing, with a focus on "AI + Education" initiatives [2][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 4.025 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.83% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 299 million yuan, down 27.22% year-on-year [2][6]. - The gross margin improved to 34.21%, an increase of 2.73 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 8.84%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.025 billion yuan, with a net profit of 299 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 330 million yuan [2]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 34.21%, reflecting an improvement, while the net margin was 8.84%, showing a decline [2]. - In Q2 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.39%, but the net profit decreased by 21.82% to 147 million yuan [2]. Business Operations - The company has maintained stable operations, with improvements in the gross margin of its publishing business [2][5]. - The revenue from the company's core businesses, including educational materials and digital textbooks, has shown mixed results, with some segments experiencing growth while others declined [2][5]. - The company is actively developing new educational products and expanding its marketing channels, including the establishment of reading spaces and partnerships with educational institutions [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its focus on the "AI + Education" sector, with projections for net profits of 801 million yuan in 2024, 959 million yuan in 2025, and 1.121 billion yuan in 2026 [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.89 yuan in 2024, 1.07 yuan in 2025, and 1.25 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times respectively [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][12]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth of 45.98% year-on-year, reaching 12.526 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, primarily due to the acquisition of Tongfang Computer [4]. - The company has outlined a growth strategy focusing on four major business areas, emphasizing the integration of software and hardware, and aims to expand its international market presence [4][7]. - The company is currently in a transitional phase, focusing on product planning, business integration, and management improvement, with expectations for enhanced operational efficiency in the future [8]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -154 million yuan, a decrease of 176.17%, while the net cash flow from operating activities was -371 million yuan, an increase of 57.89% [4]. - The company expects revenues of 29.821 billion yuan, 33.038 billion yuan, and 37.196 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 679 million yuan, 773 million yuan, and 1.029 billion yuan [8][9]. - The company's asset-liability ratio at the end of the reporting period was 53.58%, an increase of 21.45 percentage points compared to the previous year, mainly due to the acquisition of Tongfang Computer [4][6]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its product and business innovation investments to build a "soft and hard collaborative + self-controllable" industrial ecosystem, focusing on AI and data elements [7]. - The company has established several research institutes, including a Robotics Research Institute and an AI PC Research Institute, to drive innovation and product development [7]. - The company aims to strengthen its manufacturing capabilities and supply chain management through strategic partnerships and the establishment of smart manufacturing bases in key regions [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the asset management business has seen significant growth, with net income from asset management reaching 1.59 billion yuan, an increase of 36.5% year-on-year. The total scale of entrusted funds in asset management reached 12.57 billion yuan, up 15.8% [1]. - The brokerage business has also shown resilience, with net income from brokerage services increasing to 1.25 billion yuan, a growth of 8.5% year-on-year, despite a general decline in market trading volume [1][3]. - The investment banking sector has faced challenges, with a notable decline in A-share IPO scale, which dropped to 1.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.3% [1][3]. - The company is in the process of acquiring a stake in Minsheng Securities, which is expected to enhance its competitive position and operational synergy once completed [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company reported total revenue of 4.56 billion yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.67 billion yuan, down 10.5% [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for the first half of the year was 6.5%, a decrease from the previous year [1]. Business Segments - The asset management segment has shown a robust performance, with net income increasing significantly and total entrusted funds growing [1]. - The brokerage segment has expanded its client base, with a total of 1.25 million clients, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [1]. - The investment banking segment has seen a decline in activity, with a significant drop in both IPO and refinancing volumes [1][3]. Future Outlook - The report projects that the company's basic earnings per share for the years 2023 to 2025 will be 0.36 yuan, 0.27 yuan, and 0.24 yuan respectively, with net assets per share expected to grow steadily [3][4]. - The ongoing acquisition of Minsheng Securities is anticipated to create synergies and enhance the company's market position, with the integration process currently in the final stages [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected return exceeding 15% relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index over the next six months [19]. Core Views - The company's mid-year performance is stable and meets expectations, with significant improvements in debt financing and an increase in brokerage market share, leading to positive future expectations [11]. - A major asset restructuring announcement to merge with Haitong Securities is expected to elevate the company's total assets and net assets to the top of the industry, enhancing core functions and optimizing the financial landscape in Shanghai [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved total revenue of 361.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 98.85 billion yuan, down 14.9% [2][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for the first half of the year was 8.67%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Business Segments - The total underwriting financing amount for the first half of the year was 128.56 billion yuan, a decline of 12.5%, with equity financing at 36.78 billion yuan (down 15.3%) and bond financing at 91.78 billion yuan (up 5.2%) [3]. - Asset management business net income was 1.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5%, while the management scale increased, with total assets under management reaching 1,200 billion yuan, up 6.5% from the end of last year [4]. - Brokerage business maintained stability with a market share increase to 6.5%, despite a 10.2% decline in overall market trading volume [5]. Future Projections - The report forecasts basic earnings per share for the years 2023 to 2026 to be 1.24 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 0.90 yuan respectively, with net asset values projected to be 15.90 yuan, 16.51 yuan, and 16.69 yuan [12][18]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in earnings growth, with projected revenue growth rates of -5.0% for 2023, 3.0% for 2024, and 5.0% for 2025 [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 11.50 CNY, indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][28]. Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in the Beidou navigation business, driven by the replacement of the Beidou II system with Beidou III, which is expected to enhance the company's market position [7][8]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging fields such as satellite internet, low-altitude economy, and unmanned systems, which are anticipated to provide new business opportunities [12][14]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, the company is expected to recover as demand in the wireless communication sector stabilizes and the Beidou navigation business continues to grow [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.591 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.93%, and a net profit of 196 million CNY, down 37.11% [1][5]. - The gross margin was 32.12%, down 1.85 percentage points, while the net margin was 8.63%, down 2.44 percentage points [1][5]. - The company experienced a significant increase in R&D expenses, which rose by 13.20% to 477 million CNY, reflecting a focus on new technologies [4][5]. Business Segments - **Beidou Navigation**: Revenue increased by 275.45% to 414 million CNY, accounting for 15.96% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 60.73% [1][3]. - **Wireless Communication**: Revenue fell by 44.60% to 731 million CNY, representing 28.23% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 40.42% [1][3]. - **Aerospace**: Revenue grew by 16.57% to 157 million CNY, with a gross margin of 35.58% [3][9]. - **Digital Ecosystem**: Revenue remained stable at 1.246 billion CNY, accounting for 48.07% of total revenue, but with a slight decline in gross margin to 15.22% [3][10]. R&D and Emerging Fields - The company is increasing its investment in R&D, with a focus on areas such as vehicle networking, satellite internet, low-altitude economy, and 6G technology [4][12]. - The establishment of a new subsidiary in Chongqing aims to enhance the company's presence in the southwest region and support its strategic initiatives in satellite internet and Beidou navigation [14][16]. Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for defense information technology and the transition to Beidou III systems, which are expected to drive growth in the medium to long term [17][19]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 6.875 billion CNY in 2024, 8.063 billion CNY in 2025, and 9.402 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 720 million CNY, 918 million CNY, and 1.158 billion CNY respectively [19][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company benefits from the recovery in downstream demand for PCB tools, with new businesses in materials and equipment rapidly expanding [1] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 713 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.30%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.05% to 89 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on high-end fields such as AI and semiconductors, optimizing its product structure, and expanding into emerging markets [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.96%, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 28.20% to 48 million yuan [1] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 34.66%, down 1.58 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.49%, down 5.68 percentage points [1] - The company expects revenues of 1.69 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan, and 2.50 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 265 million yuan, 355 million yuan, and 448 million yuan [1] Business Segments - The PCB-related main business achieved stable growth, with tool revenue reaching 541 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.10%, and grinding and polishing materials revenue of 70 million yuan, up 28.58% [1] - New businesses such as intelligent CNC equipment and functional film materials saw significant growth, with revenues of 24 million yuan and 68 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 265.50% and 146.34% [1] Market Expansion - The company is increasing its efforts in overseas market expansion, with overseas revenue in H1 2024 reaching 35.14 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 195.91% [1] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in vehicle-mounted light control film technology, with small batch deliveries to several Tier-1 and Tier-2 manufacturers [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in H1 2024, with revenue reaching 3.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 631 million yuan, up 56.18% year-on-year [2][3]. - The dual business model of "Games + Computer" is driving high growth, positioning the company as a leader in the digital economy [2]. - The gaming segment is focusing on domestic strategy games and global market distribution, contributing significantly to revenue [2][3]. - The AI and ICT management business is expanding, with a focus on natural language processing (NLP) technology, enhancing operational efficiency across various sectors [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.053 billion yuan, with a net profit of 631 million yuan, reflecting a net profit margin of 20.41%, an increase of 5.44 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The gaming business generated revenue of 2.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.03%, primarily driven by the success of the game "Age of Origins" [2][3]. - The AI/ICT management business reported revenue of 543 million yuan, up 27.06% year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The gaming segment is expected to launch two new SLG games in the second half of the year, which could enhance revenue streams [3]. - The computer business, particularly the "Taiyue Smart Call" platform, is gaining traction, improving productivity and efficiency for B-end clients [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in net profit, projecting 1.128 billion yuan for 2024, 1.328 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.529 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.57, 0.68, and 0.78 yuan [4].

主要数据 上证指数 2765.8066 沪深300 3231.3457 深证成指 8130.7698 2024年09月08日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 8 月非农报告不甚明朗，美联储降息幅度仍存变数 2024 年 9 月 2 日-9 月 8 日周报 8月非农报告不甚明朗,美联储降息幅度仍存变数 继通胀数据连续处于降温趋势后,对于经济发展和通胀下降的天平两端,美联储近 期倒向前者,因此市场对于经济数据敏感度上升,降息预期随之波动;市场对于经济能 否实现软着陆的担忧使得金融市场波动性增大。9月6日,美国劳工部发布了8月的非 农就业报告,数据喜忧参半,对９月议息会议的指示作用不甚明朗。8 月非农就业人数 增加14.2万,但不及市场预期的16.1万,再添劳动力市场放缓的迹象;但是失业率小 幅下降0.1PCTS至4.2%,5个月来首次下行。 就业数据小幅推升了市场的降息预期,根据CME Fedwatch 的数据,截止9月7 日,虽然市场预期 9 月美联储降息 50BP 的概率仍就维持在 30%,但是主流预期为 11 月、12月将连续有两次幅度 50BP 的降息,年内总体降息幅度升至 125BP。金融市场对 最新 ...