| --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | CPI、PPI | 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围 | | 12 月价格数据点评及 | 年展望 ,2022 年 1 | | 12 日 | | | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

| --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | CPI、PPI | 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围 | | 12 月价格数据点评及 | 年展望 ,2022 年 1 | | 12 日 | | 010-66428877-452 www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 特别评论 2024 年 8 月 目录 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------| | 要点 1 | | | 主要关注因素 2 | | | 实现首发的产业化主体特征观察 | 2 | | 案例分析 7 | | | 延伸思考 9 | | | 结论 11 | | 联络人 作者 政府公共评级一部 张 敏 027-87339208-623 mzhang@ccxi.com.cn 郑远航 027-87339208-606 yhzheng@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际特别评论 中诚信国际 基础设施投融资行业 它们如何突破监管审核并实现债券首发？ ——2024 年1~7 月首发产业化主体特征观察及延伸思考 要点 主要关注因素：本文基于 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 7 月 31 日新推出的产业化主体数据，剔除资料及数据缺失等无效样 本，着重梳理 52 家新增主体的定位、业务结构、核心资源、 财务数据以及债券发行情况等，以此总结分析其实现融资新增 的原因及底部逻辑，以期为后续城投公司产业化转型提供借 鉴。 首发的 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 联络人 之保障房资产证券化 近年来，受政策及监管趋严以及投资产品收益率持续下行的影响， 保险资产管理业登记数量和规模均有较大幅度下降，亟待寻找创新作者 创新产品评级部 型投资产品，以提升投资端收益率水平、扩充投资渠道。保障房资 刘鑫鑫 010-66428877 产证券化具有较好的收益性且基础资产现金流具有良好的稳定性xxliu@ccxi.com.cn 王梦璇 010-66428877 和可预测性，或为保险资管机构未来 ABS 业务的着力点。 mxwang@ccxi.com.cn 摘要 行业研究 保险资产管理行业研究 2024 年 8 月 保险资产管理业创新型产品1观察与展望 1. 从政策层面看，保障房具有社会保障性质，购房者购买需求较为刚 性并具有一定的购房能力，此类项目政策支持力度大且销售收入较 联络人 为稳定，保障房 ABS 较为适合作为证券化的基础资产。 创新产品评级总监 张凤华 010-66428877 2. 从保障房 ABS 发行情况来看，银行间市场仅发行 3 单，交易所市 fhzhang@ccxi.com.cn 场呈波动趋势，2019 年开始快速增长，2021 年达 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank's interest rate cut is expected to improve the financing environment, indicating a downward trend in bond market yields[1] - The high-yield bond market is experiencing a scarcity of high-interest assets, with total high-yield bonds amounting to CNY 1.27 trillion, a decrease of approximately 26% since March[21] - The overall performance of high-yield bonds in the first half of 2024 shows a significant recovery, with non-state-owned enterprises achieving a cumulative return of 5.13%[9] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt flexible strategies, either focusing on short-term credit downgrades or extending duration to enhance returns[20] - The "one-package debt resolution" policy has shown positive effects, particularly in weaker regions like Guizhou, Yunnan, and Guangxi, where high-yield bond indices have performed well[22] - Caution is advised regarding potential credit risks from downgrades, overdue non-standard debts, and bond extensions, especially for tail-end enterprises[21] Group 3: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in capital gains of 4.78% in the second quarter, outperforming other sectors[16] - High-yield bonds in the construction and financial sectors have also performed well, with returns exceeding 2.60%[19] - The performance of high-yield bonds in weak regions continues to lead, with Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan showing capital gains of over 6.50% in the first half of 2024[10]

| --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围 --12 年展望 ,2022年1 月12日 | | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 1 2 20 02 24 4 年 年第 8 月 41 7 期 日 | 月价格数据点评 通胀水平延续回落、物价稳中 进出口数据点评 宏观经济 | | | 海外经济下行风险显 ...

Economic Growth - The GDP weighted average growth rate for provinces with over 2 trillion in GDP is 5.2%, while the remaining provinces average 4.6%[2] - Only 8 provinces exceeded their annual growth targets, indicating significant pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year[2] - Provinces with low GDP growth rates are primarily affected by declines in real estate investment and weak consumer demand[3] Industrial Production - National industrial added value growth was 6.0% in the first half of 2024, with 25 provinces exceeding this rate[5] - Eastern provinces, excluding Shanghai and Tianjin, showed resilience in industrial production, with Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang achieving growth rates of 8.6%, 8.5%, and 8.0% respectively[5] - Industrial production in many provinces is increasing without corresponding profit growth, raising concerns about profitability[6] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.9% nationwide, slower than GDP growth, with many provinces falling short of their targets[10] - Only three provinces (Shanghai, Guizhou, and Tianjin) reported positive growth in real estate development investment, while 17 provinces saw declines exceeding the national average[11] - Guangdong's real estate investment dropped by 16.8%, with a 30.6% decrease in commercial housing sales area[11] Export Performance - Eastern economic provinces showed strong export growth, while some central provinces like Henan experienced declines due to industrial chain shifts[2] - Border provinces benefited from improved border trade, leading to higher export growth rates[2]

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 光伏制造行业 2024 年上半年光伏制造产业链各环节供需失衡加剧，价格持续探底， 行业整体亏损面扩大，相关企业面临的财务挑战和信用风险有所上升。 对此光伏企业采取降低开工率、延缓项目投产时间等措施，行业已进 入去产能阶段；而考虑到光伏发电装机较大的增量空间以及多项引导 行业健康发展的措施出台，阶段性供需错配导致的波动不会改变行业 发展长期向好的趋势。 要点 2024 年以来国内光伏新增装机规模增速明显放缓，欧美各国和 其他新兴市场持续推进能源结构转型，海外光伏装机需求相对旺 盛，整体来看全球光伏装机高增长预期不变，但我国光伏制造行 业面临的贸易摩擦有所抬头。 在前期大幅扩产的背景下，目前我国光伏主材产业链各环节均呈 现产能过剩状态，2024 年以来供需错配的情况加剧，产品价格 低于企业成本线，行业亏损面扩大，财务压力亦进一步上升。但 上述因素也间接造成制造端企业生产和项目投产受阻，扩产进程 减慢，可一定程度上缓解产业链阶段性产能过剩。 落后产能出清进程的加快一定程度上有助于价格回归正常供需 逻辑，预计反弹空间有限，2024 年下半年行业盈利水平和获现 能力 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 光伏制造行业 2024 年上半年光伏制造产业链各环节供需失衡加剧，价格持续探底， 行业整体亏损面扩大，相关企业面临的财务挑战和信用风险有所上升。 对此光伏企业采取降低开工率、延缓项目投产时间等措施，行业已进 入去产能阶段；而考虑到光伏发电装机较大的增量空间以及多项引导 行业健康发展的措施出台，阶段性供需错配导致的波动不会改变行业 发展长期向好的趋势。 要点 2024 年以来国内光伏新增装机规模增速明显放缓，欧美各国和 其他新兴市场持续推进能源结构转型，海外光伏装机需求相对旺 盛，整体来看全球光伏装机高增长预期不变，但我国光伏制造行 业面临的贸易摩擦有所抬头。 在前期大幅扩产的背景下，目前我国光伏主材产业链各环节均呈 现产能过剩状态，2024 年以来供需错配的情况加剧，产品价格 低于企业成本线，行业亏损面扩大，财务压力亦进一步上升。但 上述因素也间接造成制造端企业生产和项目投产受阻，扩产进程 减慢，可一定程度上缓解产业链阶段性产能过剩。 落后产能出清进程的加快一定程度上有助于价格回归正常供需 逻辑，预计反弹空间有限，2024 年下半年行业盈利水平和获现 能力 ...

Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve signaled a potential interest rate cut in September, maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%[9] - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 114,000 jobs, significantly below the previous month's 206,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[10] - The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, marking the second consecutive rate cut[11] - The Bank of England lowered its main interest rate by 0.25% to 5%, the first cut since the pandemic began[12] Market Reactions - Following Japan's unexpected interest rate hike to 0.25%, the Nikkei 225 index plummeted by 12.4%, erasing all gains for the year[3] - The Japanese yen appreciated sharply, leading to significant volatility in Asian stock markets, with South Korea and Turkey experiencing market halts[3][4] Inflation and Debt Concerns - The U.S. federal debt surpassed $35 trillion, with a projected budget deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY 2024, up 27% from earlier estimates[20] - In Bangladesh, inflation reached a decade-high of 9.73%, exacerbated by rising living costs and unemployment rates[8] International Developments - The EU transferred $1.6 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine to support military purchases[33] - Turkey's trade deficit decreased by 30.5% in the first half of the year, with the World Bank approving $3.7 billion in financing for the country[36]