| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | www.ccxi.com.cn | | | | 中诚信国际特别评论 | | | | | | | 中诚信国际 | | | 2024 | 年 9 月 特别评论 | | | 中国电子行业 | | | | | | | 中国消费电子产 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 2024 年 9 月 目录 要点 1 主要关注因素 2 结论 8 附表 12 联络人 作者 柯 维 027-87339288 wke@ccxi.com.cn 李转波 027-87339288 zhbli@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 龚天璇 027-87339288 txgong@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 中国城市燃气行业 中国城市燃气行业中期信用观察——天然 气价格重回俄乌冲突前水平，供需两旺叠 加上下游定价政策调整支撑城燃企业盈利 修复 要点 全球天然气市场深度调整后逐渐走向再平衡，2024 年上半年供需整体 宽松，国际天然气价格已恢复至俄乌冲突爆发前水平。中诚信国际预 计 2024 年下半年，全球天然气市场供需延续相对宽松态势，但地缘 政治紧张、极端气候等不确定性因素犹存。 2024 年上半年，我国天然气进口依存度仍较高，随着国际天然气价格 走低，进口气恢复式增长，国产气继续发挥"压舱石"作用；工业用 气快速增长拉动国内天然气消费量重回高增长轨道，国内市场呈"供 需两旺"局面。中诚信国际认为，2024 年下半年，多气源补充下我国 天然气供应预计相 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | www.ccxi.com.cn | | | | | | | | | 特别评论 | 中诚信国际 监管趋严之下，小贷行业将何去何从？ | | | 2024 年 8 月 | ——小贷《新规》解读 | ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 特别评论 2024 年 09 月 目录 | --- | --- | |--------------|-------| | | | | | | | 要点 1 | | | 主要关注因素 | 2 | | 结论 6 | | 联络人 作者 企业评级部 刘 莹 010-66428877 yliu02@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 刘 洋 010-66428877 yliu01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 中国钢铁行业 2024 年钢铁行业：凛冬已至，孰能星河长明？ 钢铁行业 2024 年以来延续供需两弱的格局，钢企盈利情况明显分化，对外部 融资依赖度升高。但得益于资金面较为宽松的大背景，上半年债券发行和银 行融资渠道较为通畅，目前流动性压力可控。考虑到行业景气度复苏仍然存 在较大不确定性，现阶段产品结构一般、成本控制能力弱、债务期限结构不 合理或在建拟建项目投资规模大的钢企面临的流动性压力或将进一步加大。 要点 2024 年以来，钢铁行业主要下游消费领域需求仍整体处于"弱复 苏"状态，主要原燃料成本虽震荡下降，但相较于钢价，原燃料 价格仍较为坚挺，且需求不及预期和原燃料价格下 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global natural gas market is gradually rebalancing after deep adjustments, with overall supply and demand being loose in the first half of 2024, and international natural gas prices have returned to pre-conflict levels [2][18] - China's natural gas import dependence remains high, with imports recovering as international prices decline, while domestic production continues to play a stabilizing role [5][18] - The domestic market is experiencing a "supply and demand boom," driven by rapid growth in industrial gas consumption [5][18] Summary by Sections Global Natural Gas Market - The global LNG supply is expected to grow by 2.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with a strong recovery in demand, particularly from the Asian industrial sector, leading to a 3% increase in global natural gas consumption [2][5] - Major market prices have returned to pre-conflict levels, with North American HH prices averaging $1.98 per million British thermal units, down 28.3% year-on-year [2][5] Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand - In the first half of 2024, China's natural gas import volume reached 90.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with pipeline gas imports at 37.7 billion cubic meters and LNG imports at 52.5 billion cubic meters [5][7] - Domestic natural gas production was 123.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, accounting for about 5% of global production [5][7] Pricing and Policy Adjustments - The pricing policy of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has been adjusted to unify pricing for residential and non-residential gas, with expected stable procurement prices for city gas companies [9][10] - The implementation of a price linkage mechanism has improved the purchase and sale price difference for city gas companies [11][18] Financial Performance of Gas Companies - In the first half of 2024, 13 out of 18 sample companies reported a year-on-year increase in total revenue, with an overall revenue growth of 3.99% [15][18] - The profitability of city gas companies is gradually recovering, with an increase in the purchase and sale price difference contributing to improved financial performance [14][18] Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - The overall debt scale of the industry remained stable compared to the beginning of the year, with a slight decrease in total assets and debts [16][18] - Capital expenditures are primarily concentrated in large gas companies, with many firms reducing their capital spending [14][18]

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 中国汽车行业 绿色转型驱动汽车行业发展，自主领航开启布局新篇章 2024 年上半年，中国汽车行业延续了新能源车高速发展、出口放量及 自主品牌份额提升三大结构性特点，在销量增长及结构转型的带动下， 企业盈利水平持续修复，但仍面临一定的贸易摩擦风险，企业属地化 生产及研发布局将进一步加速，较高的资本开支需求或将推高部分车 企财务风险及流动性压力，行业内企业的信用水平或将进一步分化。 要点 2024 年 7 月，国内新能源乘用车单月零售渗透率首次突破 50%， 是汽车行业绿色转型的重要里程碑；随着相关政策法规及基础配 套体系不断完善、新能源车企竞争力提升，预期全年新能源汽车 销售仍将保持增长态势，但在高基数的背景下，增幅或将有所缩 窄。 2024 年上半年，我国汽车出口延续快速增长态势，但由于海外 国家贸易壁垒不断抬高，新能源车出口增速进一步放缓，且已落 后于整体增幅，预期全年汽车出口增速或将放缓。 2024 年以来，我国自主品牌市场占有率持续上升，新能源乘用 车中自主品牌占比很高，在产品力与品牌影响力不断提升以及全 球化布局的推动下，未来自主品牌市场份额或将进 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the insurance industry Core Insights - The insurance industry has seen a continuous growth in underwriting business scale, leading to an increase in investment asset scale, with a total investment balance of 30.87 trillion yuan as of June 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.62% [2] - The recent release of the "Insurance Asset Risk Classification Measures (Draft for Comments)" aims to enhance the risk classification standards for insurance assets, thereby improving risk management and regulatory oversight [2][4] - The new draft revises the asset classification standards to better reflect the actual risk and quality of assets, addressing the inadequacies of the previous 2014 guidelines [2][4] Summary by Sections Investment Asset Scale - As of June 2024, the investment balance in the insurance industry reached 30.87 trillion yuan, a 9.62% increase from the end of the previous year [2] - The investment structure has become more complex, with a broader range of investment products being utilized [2] Risk Classification Standards - The draft introduces a more comprehensive risk classification system, including fixed income, equity, and real estate categories, with adjustments to the classification criteria [4][5] - Fixed income assets now include term deposits, structured deposits, and large certificates of deposit, with a five-level classification system for risk assessment [4][6] - Equity and real estate assets have shifted from a five-level classification to a three-tier system, categorizing them as normal, risk, or loss assets [6][7] Management Responsibilities - The draft establishes a three-tier mechanism for risk classification management, clarifying the responsibilities of the board of directors and senior management in overseeing asset risk classification [8] - It emphasizes the importance of external oversight, requiring insurance companies to incorporate risk classification procedures into their internal control audits [8]

Revenue Insights - General public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in July, with a narrowing decline compared to previous months[2] - Non-tax revenue grew by 12.0% year-on-year, reaching a historical high of 18.0% of total public budget revenue[4] - Tax revenue fell by 5.4% year-on-year, with major taxes like corporate income tax and value-added tax showing declines[3] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure increased by 2.0% year-on-year, but the completion rate was only 54.45%, the lowest in three years[5] - Social security and livelihood expenditures remained a focus, accounting for over 40% of total expenditures, despite a slight decline of 0.5%[6] - Infrastructure and technology spending saw an increase, with growth rates of 8.2% and 3.8% respectively[5] Fiscal Challenges - Overall fiscal revenue fell by 5.3% year-on-year, with a completion rate of 53.9%, indicating significant pressure to meet annual budget targets[7] - Government fund budget revenue dropped by 18.5% year-on-year, with land transfer income at a historical low of 84.95%[5] - Debt servicing costs accounted for 4.58% of total expenditures, highlighting ongoing fiscal sustainability concerns[6]

| --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | CPI、PPI | 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围 | | 12 月价格数据点评及 | 年展望 ,2022 年 1 | | 12 日 | | | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 1 2024 2024 年 年第 8 月 45 27 期 日 | 月价格数据点评 通胀水平延续回落、物价稳中 工业企业利润数据点评 宏观经济 | | | 低基数支撑企业利润小幅回升， 利润率偏低与流通偏慢制约仍存 | | 作者 : 中诚信国际 研究 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the engineering machinery export sector, despite a slowdown in growth rates due to high base effects and demand fluctuations [2][9]. Core Insights - The export volume and value of China's engineering machinery have slowed down in 2024, but the current export scale remains at historical highs, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [2][3][9]. - Domestic engineering machinery companies are increasingly relying on exports to compensate for declining domestic demand, with overseas sales contributing significantly to their revenue [2][3]. - The international competitiveness of Chinese engineering machinery is improving due to advantages in cost-effectiveness, supply chain efficiency, and enhanced product quality [2][3][9]. Summary by Sections Export Performance - In the first half of 2024, excavator exports decreased by 13.80% year-on-year, while loader exports grew by 5.32%, indicating a mixed performance across different machinery types [3][9]. - Exports to "Belt and Road" countries increased by 4.22% to $12.4 billion, accounting for 48% of total exports, while exports to BRICS countries rose by approximately 10% to $7.1 billion [5][9]. Market Opportunities - The global engineering machinery market is projected to exceed $200 billion by 2028, with significant growth opportunities in regions like Russia, the U.S., and Indonesia [3][5][9]. - The report highlights that the demand for engineering machinery in Russia is expected to remain stable due to strong fixed asset investments and a favorable geopolitical environment [6][9]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese brands have gained market share in Russia, with exports increasing by 66.5% to $6.058 billion in 2023, largely due to the exit of Western competitors [6][9]. - However, the market share of Chinese brands in North America remains low, at less than 10%, indicating substantial growth potential [6][9]. Internationalization Efforts - Leading Chinese companies are expanding their international presence through overseas manufacturing, partnerships, and local market adaptations [11][12]. - The report notes that the internationalization of Chinese engineering machinery firms is still lagging behind established competitors like Caterpillar and Komatsu, particularly in market share and operational depth [14][18]. Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that overseas sales will continue to be a crucial growth driver for the engineering machinery sector, with significant potential in emerging markets [18].