Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji

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图说财报系列(三):新兴产业:盈利承压韧性显现,政策护航助融资优化
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-12 11:13
Report Overview - The report focuses on the financial performance of emerging industries, including electronic components, new chemical industry, and automotive industry from 2024 to Q1 2025 [2][3]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Emerging industries are facing profit - pressure but show resilience, and policy support helps optimize financing. Although the growth rate of total net profit is still negative, the decline has narrowed, over 70% of issuers are profitable, and over 50% have increased operating cash flow. The overall risk is controllable due to continuous policy support and relatively smooth financing channels [3]. Sub - industry Summaries Electronic Components Industry - From 2024 to Q1 2025, the industry showed recovery and differentiation. The total net profit growth rate turned negative in 2024 (-10.52%) but rebounded to 28.2% in Q1 2025. The asset - liability ratio fluctuated upward, short - term debt expanded, but the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt increased. The semiconductor manufacturing capacity gap in China is still large, and panel prices showed different trends. The industry may develop towards smaller processes and advanced packaging technologies [8]. New Chemical Industry - From 2024 to Q1 2025, the industry was in a low - boom cycle due to weak demand and over - capacity. The total net profit growth rate decreased by 9.53% in Q1 2025. The enterprise leverage ratio was high but stabilizing, and short - term debt growth slowed. The short - term solvency is generally controllable but with internal differentiation [10]. Automotive Industry - In 2024, domestic automobile sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the increase expanded to 11.7% in Q1 2025. However, the average price reduction of 8.3% compressed the gross profit margin, and the net profit growth rate of traditional car - makers turned negative. The debt scale expanded, but the leverage ratio was stable, and solvency was controllable. The industry may continue the "stronger get stronger" pattern [12].
7月利率运行分析与展望:恢复征收国债等利息收入增值税的三点意义
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-12 11:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of the yield central tendency in the bond market is difficult to reverse in the long - term due to economic pressure, but it may first decline and then rise in the short - term [4][29] - The macro - environment is still favorable for the bond market, with the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the central bank will maintain liquidity [24][29] - The resumption of VAT collection on the interest income of government bonds and other bonds has multiple meanings and will affect the bond market [6] Summary by Directory Hot - Spot Review - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly issued national, local, and financial bonds. The VAT rate for banks, insurance, and securities self - operating departments will change from 0 to 6%, and for public funds and other asset management products, from 0 to 3% [6] - The resumption has three meanings: releasing incremental fiscal space to ease fiscal pressure (estimated to increase annual fiscal revenue by 200 - 410 billion yuan), optimizing the bond market tax policy and strengthening the benchmark function of national bond yields, and optimizing resource allocation by guiding funds to other fields and narrowing the spreads between old and new bonds and credit spreads [6][7][9] July Interest Rate Operation Review Funds and Liquidity Monitoring - In July, the central bank's open - market operations were relatively loose, with a net capital injection of 488 billion yuan, but a decrease of 365.9 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations at times of tight liquidity [11] - The central tendency of capital interest rates declined. The DR007 central tendency was 1.516%, a 6.17 - BP decline from the previous month, and the R007 central tendency was 1.5296%, a 10.35 - BP decline. The DR007 - R007 spread was at a historically low level, indicating looser non - bank liquidity [12][14] Interest - Bearing Bond Yield Review - The 10 - year national bond yield central tendency increased. At the end of the month, it reached 1.7044%, a 5.75 - BP increase from the previous month's end, and the central tendency increased by 2.66 BP to 1.68%. The term spread widened by 1.7 BP to 32.37 BP [16] - In July, the trading volume of interest - bearing bonds increased by 5.25 trillion yuan to 28.18 trillion yuan. The trading volume of national bonds increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, local bonds decreased by 195.833 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds increased by 4.06 trillion yuan [16] Follow - up Outlook Macro - environment - The central tendency of national bond yields may continue to decline, but short - term incremental policies may drive yields up. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Consumption and investment in June showed marginal cooling [22] - The central government will accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds, and the NDRC will promote the establishment of new policy - based financial instruments, which may improve macro - data but have a negative impact on the bond market [22] Monetary Policy - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. There is a need for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts due to high real interest rates. The Fed may cut interest rates in the third quarter, providing space for China's monetary policy easing. The central tendency of yields may decline further this year [24] - In the short - term, the central bank will maintain liquidity by increasing open - market operations despite the accelerated issuance of government bonds [24] Bond Market Strategy - The short - term adjustment of the interest - income tax rate on national bonds may lead to a rush to buy old bonds, driving yields down, and then the yield central tendency may rise due to the tax premium [28] - The stock market's anti - involution trend and the NDRC's new policies may increase market risk appetite and have a negative impact on bond yields [29] - Enterprises planning to issue bonds can consider starting in late Q3 to reduce financing costs [29]
政治局会议精神学习:7月政治局会议的五大关注点
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-12 11:07
Group 1: Economic Planning and Strategy - The Politburo meeting announced the convening of the 20th Central Committee's fourth plenary session in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking a strategic transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan[1] - The meeting emphasized the complexity and variability of the development environment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for a robust economic foundation and long-term positive trends[1] Group 2: Key Economic Focus Areas - Promoting price stabilization is crucial, as weak overall price levels hinder internal circulation and affect corporate profitability, investment, and consumer spending[2] - The strategy to deepen and expand domestic demand is essential, with a focus on enhancing consumer contributions to economic growth amid external pressures[4] - Innovation-driven growth is prioritized, with recommendations to support strategic emerging industries and optimize the business environment to foster new economic drivers[4] Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy and Challenges - The meeting acknowledged a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5%[5] - Structural issues were identified, including discrepancies between nominal and actual growth rates, and challenges in demand and supply dynamics, indicating a need for targeted policy interventions[5] - The emphasis on flexible and anticipatory macroeconomic policies aims to address both external pressures and domestic structural challenges[6] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Measures - Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating government bond issuance, with 2.61 trillion yuan issued in the first half, representing 49.1% of the annual quota, but still below the three-year average of 58.68%[8] - Monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose stance, with potential for interest rate cuts to stimulate microeconomic activity, particularly for small and micro enterprises[9] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the efficiency of fiscal spending, shifting from investment-heavy to a balanced approach that includes consumer spending[8] Group 5: Consumer Demand and Service Sector - The meeting proposed actions to boost consumption, particularly in the service sector, recognizing the need to address supply shortages and enhance service offerings[10] - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies aims to increase disposable income and consumer willingness, reflecting a shift towards a more human-centered approach in consumption policies[12] Group 6: Market Competition and Structural Reforms - The meeting reiterated the need to optimize market competition and address "involution" in industries, which has contributed to low price levels and weak corporate profits[13] - Emphasis was placed on the orderly exit of outdated production capacity and the need for a legal and market-based governance system to manage competition effectively[14]
地方政府债与城投行业监测周报2025年第28期:家庭支持型财政政策连续出台,财政部再次通报六起新增隐债问责案例-20250812
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-12 11:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Family - support - oriented fiscal policies are continuously introduced, optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure towards a "people - investment" and "people's livelihood - focused" direction, with potential long - term economic and social benefits [5][8][9]. - The Ministry of Finance has once again reported six typical cases of implicit debt accountability, highlighting the need to strengthen the investigation and accountability of implicit debt and improve the investment and financing mechanisms in key policy - supported areas [10][11][13]. - The process of key provinces "exiting the list" continues, with Inner Mongolia being the first to officially announce its exit, and efforts are needed to consolidate the results and prevent new implicit debts [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Important News Reviews 3.1.1. Family - support - oriented Fiscal Policies - Since July, family - support - oriented policies such as the implementation plan for child - rearing subsidies and the gradual implementation of free preschool education have been successively introduced. These policies are expected to increase the proportion of people's livelihood expenditure in fiscal expenditure, optimize the central - local expenditure structure, and stimulate consumption and human capital development [5][8][9]. 3.1.2. Ministry of Finance's Report on Implicit Debt Accountability - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance reported six typical cases of implicit debt accountability, all involving new implicit debts. The new implicit debts occurred relatively recently and were concentrated in policy - supported areas such as urban renewal and high - standard farmland construction [10][11][13]. 3.1.3. Key Provinces "Exiting the List" - Inner Mongolia has officially announced its exit from the list of key provinces with local debt risks. However, it still faces challenges such as high debt ratios in some areas and large temporary fiscal payments, and efforts are needed to prevent new implicit debts [14]. 3.1.4. Early Redemption of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 32 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance, involving 33 bonds with a total scale of 59.14 billion yuan. The enterprises are mainly from the central region, and the majority of the bond issuers have an AA rating [17]. 3.1.5. Cancellation of Bond Issuance - Two urban investment bonds were cancelled this week, with a planned total issuance scale of 17.5 billion yuan. As of August 4, 77 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 442.26 billion yuan [18]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds 3.2.1. Local Government Bonds - This week, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds decreased. The issuance progress of new special bonds exceeded 60%. The issuance interest rate and spread both increased. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose to 1.89%, and the weighted average issuance spread rose to 10.42BP [19]. 3.2.2. Urban Investment Bonds - The issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased this week, while the net financing scale increased. The issuance interest rate increased, and the spread widened. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.33%, and the issuance spread was 78.73BP. Five overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 33.22 billion yuan [22][23]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - The central bank conducted 1663.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases this week, with 1656.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 690 million yuan. Short - term capital interest rates generally declined [26]. - This week, the trading scale of local government bond cash bonds decreased by 7.14% to 380.769 billion yuan, and most of the maturity yields declined, with an average decline of 1.50BP. The trading scale of urban investment bonds increased by 2.69% to 277.6 billion yuan, and most of the maturity yields declined, with an average decline of 2.44BP [27]. - There were 16 abnormal transactions of 14 bonds from 14 urban investment entities this week. The number of entities decreased, but the number of bonds and abnormal transactions increased [28]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 50 urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, names, and business scopes [31].
图说财报系列(一):解码产业债发行人财务表现
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-12 11:04
2025 年 7 月 财务表现分析系列研究 图说财报系列(一)|解码产业债发行人财务表现 在经济结构调整、行业周期轮动与政策调整的复杂影响下,产业债 发行人财务表现正 成为信用风险 研判的 关键维度。中诚信 国际 基于 2018 年至今的持续追踪研究,正式推出《图说财报系列》,通过可视 化数据呈现与重点行业深度解析相结合的方式,系统梳理发行人财务特 征与信用趋势。本系列依次推出开篇报告、传统产业、新兴产业和消 费行业专题。作为系列开篇,本报告将立足全市场视角,以直观图表拆解 产业债发行人整体财务表现,为后续各行业深度研究奠定分析基础。 产业债发行人财务表现 盈利呈弱修复态势,稳定性持续上升 2024 年以来,受国际环境复杂多变、国内需求不足等因素影响, 发行人整体盈利能力呈现弱修复态势。"弱"体现在发行人净利润总额 仍在持续缩减,主要受尾部主体盈利恶化所拖累。但与此同时,"修复" 特征亦明显,从变动趋势看,去年三季度以来净利润同比改善的发行人 逐季增多,净利润增幅在 0-20%区间的发行人增加至近三成,盈利稳定 性持续上升。 图 1:发行人盈利能力呈现弱修复态势 图 2:净资产收益率中枢小幅上移 数据来源:W ...
信用利差周报2025年第28期:“股债跷跷板”效应下债市回调,政治局会议影响几何?-20250812
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-12 11:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In the context of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, the bond market adjusted due to the stock market's rise. However, the bond market still has support from fundamentals and capital, and the yield center may remain low. The Politburo meeting's policies may boost stock market activity, causing short-term disturbances to the bond market [4][11][12] - The Central Bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a document encouraging the issuance of rural revitalization bonds, which may lead to the expansion of such bonds [5][14][15] - Industrial enterprise profits declined in the first half of the year, with industrial product prices dragging down revenue and profits, while "volume" remained an important support factor for profit recovery [6][17] Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Stock-Bond Seesaw Effect and Bond Market Adjustment**: The stock market rose significantly last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3600 points, triggering the "stock-bond seesaw" effect. The bond market adjusted, with most major bond market indices falling and bond yields rising. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 1.73%. The Politburo meeting's policies may increase stock market activity, causing short-term disturbances to the bond market, but the bond market still has support [4][11][12] - **Policy Encouragement for Rural Revitalization Bonds**: The Central Bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a document encouraging the issuance of rural revitalization bonds. This policy aims to provide comprehensive financial support for rural revitalization, and rural revitalization bonds may expand in the future [5][14][15] Macroeconomic Data - Industrial enterprise profits declined by 1.8% year-on-year from January to June, with the decline widening compared to the previous period. In June, the profit decline narrowed, indicating marginal improvement but overall weakness. Industrial product prices continued to drag down profits, while industrial production was supported by factors such as the "export rush" effect and the "618" shopping festival [6][17] Money Market - The central bank's net capital injection decreased last week, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity. Most interbank repurchase rates rose, except for a slight decline in the DR1m rate. The spread between the 3-month and 1-year Shibor widened [20] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased last week, reaching 3243.17 billion yuan, an increase of 418.72 billion yuan from the previous period. Different bond types showed varying trends, with ultra-short-term financing bonds and corporate bonds increasing significantly. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net outflow of financing, while most industries in the industrial bond sector had a net inflow. The issuance cost of credit bonds mostly increased [23][25][31] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The trading volume in the secondary bond market increased last week, with the daily average trading volume reaching 19682.03 billion yuan. Bond yields generally rose, with interest rate bonds and credit bonds both showing significant increases. Most credit spreads widened, while rating spreads showed mixed trends with small changes [33][36][40]
资产支持票据产品报告(2025年7月):资产支持票据发行节奏有所放缓,个人消费金融类资产表现活跃
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-08 09:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In July 2025, the issuance pace of asset - backed notes slowed down, while personal consumer finance assets were active. The issuance volume and scale decreased compared to the previous month, and the secondary - market transaction amount also declined year - on - year [4][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance Situation - **Overall Issuance**: 52 asset - backed note products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 39.43 billion yuan. Compared with the previous month, the number of issuances decreased by 6, and the scale dropped by 28.68%. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the number increased by 5, but the scale decreased by 13.20%. Only 2 were publicly issued, and the rest were privately placed [4][5]. - **Top - Ten Issuing Institutions**: Huaxin International Trust Co., Ltd. ranked first with an issuance scale of 5 billion yuan (12.81%). The top - ten issuing institutions had a total issuance scale of 29.644 billion yuan, accounting for 75.93% [5]. - **Underlying Asset Categories**: Personal consumer finance products accounted for 49.40% in terms of scale (23 issuances), followed by small - and - micro loans (27.66%, 13 issuances), supply chain (5.27%, 6 issuances), etc. [7]. - **Issuance Scale Distribution**: Single - product issuance scale ranged from 121 million yuan to 1.5 billion yuan. Products with a single - issuance scale of (5, 10] billion yuan had the largest number of issuances (33) and scale (78.53%) [10]. - **Term Distribution**: The shortest term was 0.27 years, and the longest was 9.55 years. Products with a term of (1, 2] years had the largest number of issuances (24) and scale (49.97%) [12][15]. - **Level Distribution**: AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 88.56% of the issuance scale [15]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: For one - year - around AAAsf - rated notes, the lowest issuance rate was 1.73%, the highest was 3.20%, and the rate center was around 1.78% [4][17]. - **ABCP Issuance**: 12 ABCP products were issued, with a total scale of 7.209 billion yuan, accounting for 18.46% of the ABN issuance scale. Personal consumer finance ABCP accounted for 55.34% of the ABCP issuance scale [20]. 3.2 Secondary - Market Transaction Situation - **Transaction Volume and Amount**: There were 533 secondary - market transactions in July 2025. The number of transactions increased by 12.21% month - on - month and 0.57% year - on - year, while the transaction amount decreased by 5.11% month - on - month and 25.73% year - on - year [21]. - **Underlying Asset Type Distribution**: The most active underlying asset types in the secondary - market transactions were personal consumer finance (34.99%), small - and - micro loans (13.89%), etc. [21].
基础设施投融资行业2025年二季度政策回顾及展望:“存量优化”与“增量突破”双轮驱动
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-01 07:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "infrastructure investment") industry continued to implement the working idea of "debt resolution in development", promoting debt risk resolution through debt - end "pressure relief" and investment - end "oxygen increase", and enhancing the development momentum of infrastructure investment enterprises and local economies [2]. - The short - term policy benefits in the infrastructure investment industry conflict with the long - term "weak" fundamentals. Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the resolution of the large - scale operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises still takes time. In the context of accelerating platform exit and transformation, credit risks and regional risk resonance should be guarded against, and the evolution of the government - enterprise relationship needs to be dynamically examined and evaluated [17][18]. - In the second half of 2025, new investment space may be opened, which is conducive to accelerating the transformation and development of infrastructure investment enterprises and promoting the re - balance between "debt resolution and development" [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **New special bonds reach a new high and support scope changes**: In 2025, the new special bond quota increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 12.8%, with 800 billion yuan earmarked for resolving existing implicit debts. As of June 29, 2112.705 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for 48.02% of the annual quota. The support scope has expanded, including real estate acquisition, idle land revitalization, emerging industry infrastructure, and urban renewal projects. The "self - review and self - issuance" mechanism can improve the efficiency of special bond issuance and use [3][4]. - **Local government debt risk resolution advances**: In the first half of the year, large - scale debt replacement was carried out. Refinancing bonds were issued in advance, reaching 2.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. Special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts totaled 1795.938 billion yuan, nearly 90% of the annual 2 - trillion - yuan quota. Many places promoted financial debt resolution and explored emergency fund support. Central authorities emphasized clearing government arrears, and the Ministry of Finance announced six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability to prevent new implicit debts [5]. - **Dynamic optimization of debt risk list management and enterprise transformation**: The government emphasized the dynamic adjustment of high - risk debt area lists and supported the opening of new investment space. Regulatory authorities strengthened the supervision of urban investment bond issuance, guiding infrastructure investment enterprises to exit platforms and transform into industries [6]. - **Optimization and innovation of public investment models**: The State Council issued a guiding opinion on promoting the high - quality development of government investment funds. The PPP model was innovated, and local governments explored new practices such as the public infrastructure leasing mechanism. Many provinces issued incentive policies for infrastructure REITs [7][8]. 3.2 Policy Main Impacts - **Relief of short - term solvency pressure**: As of June 29, 2025, local government bonds' new issuance totaled 2558.122 billion yuan, 49.19% of the annual quota, and refinancing bonds totaled 2877.486 billion yuan, with 1795.938 billion yuan used for replacing implicit debts, improving the refinancing environment of infrastructure investment enterprises [10]. - **Expansion of special bond investment areas and increased regional differentiation**: As of June 29, 2025, new special bonds of 2112.705 billion yuan were issued, 48.02% of the annual quota. The issuance progress was faster than the previous year. However, the issuance was more differentiated among regions [11]. - **Tightening of urban investment bond supply**: In the first half of 2025, 4339 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2808.708 billion yuan and a net financing of - 76.36 billion yuan. The net financing decreased year - on - year, and the supply continued to tighten [11]. - **Decline in financing costs**: In the first half of 2025, the weighted average issuance interest rate of national urban investment bonds was 2.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41 percentage points [12]. - **Optimization of financing channels**: The proportion of credit financing of urban investment enterprises increased, while the proportion of bond financing decreased, and the scale and proportion of non - standard financing both declined [13]. - **Convergence of non - standard and bill risks**: In the first half of 2025, there were 16 urban investment non - standard risk events, and the number of new bond - issuing urban investment enterprises entering the continuous overdue list from January to June was 9, showing a significant decrease [14]. - **Acceleration of platform exit and transformation**: Policies promoted the high - quality acceleration of infrastructure investment enterprises' "platform exit" and transformation. However, the new issuance space of urban investment bonds may be further narrowed, and the proportion of borrowing new to repay old is expected to remain high [15]. 3.3 Industry Development Expectations - **Conflict between short - term benefits and long - term fundamentals**: Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the conflict between short - term policy benefits and long - term "weak" fundamentals is still prominent. A large number of operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises are difficult to resolve [17][18]. - **Risks in enterprise transformation**: The exit from platforms and industrial transformation of infrastructure investment enterprises will continue to accelerate. Attention should be paid to the credit risks under the phenomena of "shelling" of traditional urban investment, "formalization" and "radicalization" of transformed urban investment, and the possible regional risk resonance [19][20]. - **Evolution of government - enterprise relationship**: The promotion of goals such as platform exit, urban investment transformation, and implicit debt clearance will force the government - enterprise relationship to become clearer. However, it is necessary to dynamically examine and evaluate the evolution of this relationship [21][22].
国际宏观资讯双周报-20250731
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-07-31 08:44
www.ccxi.com.cn 国际宏观资讯双周报 5 月 20 日–6 月 3 日 2025 年第 10 期 本周资讯一览 热点评论 韩国央行宣布将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 2.5% 经济增长预期大幅下调 经济 财政 政治 国际收支 ESG 主权信用 惠誉将阿根廷主权信用等级由 CCC 上调至 CCC+ 展望维持稳定 | 杜凌轩 | 010-66428877-279 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | lxdu@ccxi.com.cn | | | 王家璐 | 010-66428877-451 | | | | jlwang@ccxi.com.cn | | | 于 嘉 | 010-66428877-242 | | | | jyu@ccxi.com.cn | | | 张晶鑫 | 010-66428877-243 | | | | jxzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | | 易 成 | 010-66428877-246 | | | | chyi@ccxi.com.cn | | | 方菏阳 | 010-66428877-567 | | | | hyfang@ccxi.com.cn | | ...
资产支持票据产品报告(2025年上半年):资产支持票据发行规模同比快速增长,发行成本有所降低,个人消费金融、小微贷款两类资产表现活跃
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-07-30 07:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the issuance scale of asset - backed notes increased rapidly year - on - year, and the issuance cost decreased. Personal consumer finance and micro - loans were active among the underlying assets. Secondary market transactions also showed growth [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Issuance Situation - In H1 2025, 280 asset - backed note products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 258.275 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 74 in quantity and 48.44% in scale. April had the highest issuance volume and scale [3][4]. - The top five issuing institutions in terms of issuance scale were SDIC Taikang Trust Co., Ltd., Beijing Jingdong Century Trading Co., Ltd., China National Foreign Trade Trust Co., Ltd., Huaxin International Trust Co., Ltd., and Huaneng Guicheng Trust Co., Ltd. The top five and top ten issuing institutions accounted for 42.97% and 62.85% of the total issuance scale respectively [6]. - In terms of underlying asset categories, debt - based ABNs dominated, with a scale of 231.007 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 52.45% and a scale share of 89.44%. The average issuance scale of other - type assets was the highest at 175.1 million yuan per unit [9]. - The underlying asset sub - types included personal consumer finance, micro - loans, accounts receivable, specific non - financial claims, and supply chains. Personal consumer finance had the largest scale share at 44.48% [11]. - The highest single - product issuance scale was 6.043 billion yuan, and the lowest was 90 million yuan. Products with a single - issuance scale in the (5, 10] billion yuan range had the largest number of issuances and the highest scale share [15]. - The shortest product term was 0.17 years, and the longest was 23.41 years. Products with a term in the (0, 1] year range had the largest number of issuances and the highest scale share [18]. - By rating level, AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 90.64% of the issuance scale [19]. - For one - year AAAsf - rated notes, the interest rate center was around 1.97%, and the median decreased by 34BP year - on - year [21]. - In H1 2025, 88 ABCP products were issued, with a total scale of 89.119 billion yuan, accounting for 34.51% of the ABN issuance scale [23]. Issuance Spread - Compared with the same - term treasury bonds, the issuance spread of 1 - year asset - backed notes narrowed, while that of 3 - year notes widened slightly. Compared with the same - term AAA - rated corporate bonds, the issuance spreads of both 1 - year and 3 - year asset - backed notes narrowed [27][29][32]. - For personal consumer finance, micro - loans, and accounts receivable, the issuance spreads showed different trends. The issuance costs of these three types of products decreased significantly compared with the previous year [32][34][36]. Secondary Market Transaction - In H1 2025, the total trading volume of asset - backed notes in the secondary market was 258.04 billion yuan, and the number of transactions was 2,840, with year - on - year increases of 23.34% and 21.89% respectively [39]. - The products with active secondary - market transactions were mainly personal consumer finance, class REITs, accounts receivable, micro - loans, and partnership shares [40]. Industry Dynamic Review - On March 14, 2025, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) issued the Action Plan for Further Supporting the High - quality Development of Private Enterprises in the Inter - bank Bond Market, which was conducive to optimizing the bond financing environment for private enterprises [42]. - On May 7, 2025, NAFMII issued the Notice on Launching Science and Technology Innovation Bonds and Building a "Science and Technology Board" in the Bond Market. On May 26, the first science and technology innovation asset - backed security was successfully issued, which was helpful for the bond market to serve the science and technology innovation field [43].