Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a rise in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 13,687.12 billion yuan in June, an increase of 5,283.58 billion yuan from the previous month, and a net financing amount of 2,559.96 billion yuan, up by 2,055.38 billion yuan [39][40][51] - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery, with the new orders index returning to the expansion zone at 50.2, suggesting improvements in consumer demand due to policy support [27][51] - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs is set to launch on July 7, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of high-rated innovation bonds and provide investment opportunities [8][10] Group 2 - The overall bond yield is expected to remain low due to a weak economic recovery, with the central bank maintaining a loose monetary policy and potential increases in fiscal spending [7][8][51] - The credit risk in the bond market remains manageable, with a rolling default rate of 0.28% in June, and only one new default subject reported [15][19] - The average issuance rates for various credit bonds show mixed trends, with short-term and medium-term bonds experiencing rate fluctuations, while the overall market remains favorable for issuers due to low financing costs [10][39][40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In H1 2025, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds hit a three - year low, with negative net financing for four consecutive months from March to June. The credit risk of urban investment bonds slightly converged, and credit ratings were mainly upgraded. It is expected that the issuance scale from July to December will be about 2.4 trillion yuan, and the net outflow may exceed 100 billion yuan [2][12]. - The current urban investment financing policy is strict, and it is necessary to optimize the policy to support new investment space. Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved results, urban investment enterprises still face heavy debt pressure. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period will bring new opportunities and challenges to the urban investment industry, but enterprises face problems such as weak asset liquidity. The "platform exit" of urban investment may lead to new problems, and it is necessary to guide and regulate the transformation [7][8][9]. - The credit spread of urban investment bonds still has room for compression. It is recommended to allocate high - quality enterprise targets in strong regions and pay attention to new issuers of bonds during the transformation [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Five Characteristics of the Urban Investment Bond Market Operation in H1 2025 - **Issuance scale at a three - year low, negative net financing at home and abroad**: The issuance scale was 2.77 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.15%. The net financing was - 120.004 billion yuan, with four consecutive months of net outflows from March to June. The overseas issuance scale decreased by 12.29% year - on - year, and the net outflow was 34.484 billion yuan. Only provincial and AAA - rated urban investment entities had positive net financing [2][17][18]. - **Overall decline in issuance interest rates, small decline for weak - quality bonds**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41 percentage points. The decline of weak - quality and low - level entities was less than that of stronger ones, and the AA - level entities' interest rates increased [30]. - **Long - term issuance trend, high proportion of debt replacement**: The weighted average term was 3.89 years, a year - on - year increase of 0.24 years. The proportion of private placement bonds rose to the first place. The broad and narrow debt replacement ratios reached 97.57% and 94.13% respectively [37]. - **Decline in trading volume, compression of trading spreads**: The trading volume decreased by 14.86% year - on - year, and the trading spreads compressed compared with the end of 2024 [42]. - **Deeper net outflows in non - key regions**: 13 provinces had a 100% debt replacement ratio, with 10 being key provinces. Jilin and Chongqing issued project - construction urban investment bonds. Key provinces had a total net outflow of 36.308 billion yuan, and non - key provinces had a total net outflow of 83.696 billion yuan [45]. II. Slight Convergence of Urban Investment Credit Risks, Upward - Adjusted Credit Ratings - **Convergence of non - standard default risks, decline in commercial bill overdue times**: There were 3 non - standard default events in H1, all trust product over - dues in Henan, Shandong, and Shaanxi. By May, 52 urban investment enterprises were on the commercial bill overdue list, with 100 times on the list, a year - on - year decrease of 10 enterprises and 17 times [56]. - **Upward - adjusted credit ratings, mainly in Shanghai, Hunan, and Guangdong**: 25 urban investment platforms had 44 rating adjustments. 14 entities had upward - adjusted main body ratings, and 2 had downward - adjusted ones. 27 bond items were upgraded, and 2 were downgraded [58]. - **Significant decline in abnormal trading volume and scale, frequent in Shandong and Guizhou**: 157 urban investment entities had 576 abnormal trades, with a scale of 23.332 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 76.34%. Shandong and Guizhou had relatively large abnormal trading scales [60]. III. High Maturity and Put - Option Pressures, Difficult to Reverse the Net Outflow Trend, Expected Issuance Scale of about 2.4 Trillion from July to December - **Maturity and put - option scale of about 2.58 trillion from July to December**: By the end of June, the maturity scale was about 1.85 trillion yuan, and the put - option scale was 72.7022 billion yuan (assuming a 70% put - option ratio). Heilongjiang, Gansu, and Yunnan had relatively high maturity pressures [64]. - **Slight decline in the proportion of early redemption, more than half of bonds in Liaoning were redeemed early**: In H1, 700 bonds were redeemed early, with a total scale of 126.284 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. The proportion of early redemption to the total maturity scale was 4.36%, a slight year - on - year decrease. Liaoning had a high early - redemption proportion of 54.39% [68]. - **Expected issuance scale of about 2.4 trillion from July to December, net outflow may exceed 100 billion**: It is expected that there may still be months with negative net financing from July to December, with a total net outflow of about 100 - 150 billion yuan. The issuance scale is expected to be between 2.34 trillion and 2.50 trillion yuan. The debt replacement ratio will remain high, and the financing entity level may continue to move up [5][70][72]. IV. Follow - up Concerns and Investment Strategies (1) Follow - up Concerns - **Optimize financing policies**: The current policies are too strict. It is necessary to optimize policies from the perspective of ensuring financing cycles and economic development, such as refining "list - based management" and relaxing "government letter" requirements [7]. - **Accelerate debt replacement and relieve pressure**: Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved results, urban investment enterprises still face heavy debt pressure. It is recommended to accelerate debt replacement and include some operating debts and government arrears in the replacement scope [8]. - **Seize development opportunities during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period**: Urban investment enterprises face problems such as weak asset liquidity. They need to seize opportunities during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, integrate resources, and control investment impulses [9]. - **Guide and standardize urban investment transformation**: The "platform exit" of urban investment may lead to new problems. Local governments need to guide the transformation direction and strengthen policy connection [10]. (2) Investment Strategies - The macro - environment is favorable for the bond market. The yield center may decline in H2 2025. The credit spread of urban investment bonds has room for compression. It is recommended to allocate high - quality targets in strong regions and pay attention to new issuers during the transformation [11][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2024, the panda bond market continued to be hot, with the annual issuance volume reaching a new high, and the market is expected to remain active in 2025 [1][17] - The development of the panda bond market is driven by factors such as the low - cost financing advantage of RMB, the improvement of relevant systems, and the increase in foreign investment participation [1][2] Summary According to Related Content 2024 Review - **Issuance Scale and Structure**: In 2024, 44 entities issued 109 panda bonds, with a total issuance scale of 194.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.1%. The proportion of pure foreign issuers rose from about 20% in 2023 to nearly 40%. The proportion of bonds with a term of 5 years and above exceeded 20%, and the proportion of bonds with a single - issue scale of over 25 billion yuan rose from 25% to 50% [1] - **Regional and Industry Diversity**: Since 2023, panda bond issuers have covered five continents globally, with new issuers from South America in 2024. The issuer industries include finance, consumption, industry, etc., with new sub - industries such as pulp and original research drugs [1] - **Investment - side Changes**: The proportion of foreign investors and foreign banks in panda bond investment increased from 20% in 2023 to nearly 50% in 2024, due to RMB internationalization, good issuer qualifications, and yield advantages [2] 2024 Highlights - **BASF's First Panda Bond**: In June 2024, BASF issued a 2 - billion - yuan panda bond with a final coupon rate of 2.39%, using an optimized pricing and allocation mechanism [10][11] - **Suzano's First Panda Bond in Latin America**: In November 2024, Suzano issued a 1.2 - billion - yuan green panda bond, highlighting the deepening of China - Brazil bilateral financial cooperation [12] - **UOB's Return and Listing on SGX**: In October 2024, UOB issued a 5 - billion - yuan panda bond, and it was listed on the Singapore Exchange in November, the first panda bond to be listed outside the Greater China region [13] - **Beijing Enterprises' 10 - year Panda Bond**: In April 2024, Beijing Enterprises issued a 2 - billion - yuan 10 - year panda bond, setting multiple market records and forming a relatively complete bond valuation system [14] - **CapitaLand's Sustainable - linked Panda Bonds**: In 2024, CapitaLand issued two phases of panda bonds totaling 2 billion yuan, the first being a sustainable - linked panda bond from a Singaporean enterprise, which helps achieve sustainability goals [16] 2025 Outlook - **Issuance Scale**: The panda bond issuance scale is expected to remain high in 2025, with regular issuers likely to increase issuance frequency, issue long - term bonds, and diversify issuance varieties [17] - **Issuer Structure**: The proportion of pure foreign issuers may further increase, and more issuers from regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are expected to enter the market [18] - **Investment - side Trends**: Foreign investors are expected to maintain high enthusiasm for investing in panda bonds due to the optimization of investment mechanisms, and the investment value of panda bonds is expected to be further demonstrated [20] Rating Market - In 2024, China Chengxin International maintained a leading position in the panda bond rating market, with a comprehensive market share of 54% and 70% in the pure foreign issuer rating market [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The China - Latin America and the Caribbean Community (CELAC) cooperation has entered a new stage, with deepening political mutual trust and expanding economic and trade cooperation. The issuance of panda bonds is an important direction for financial cooperation between the two sides, but attention should be paid to the sovereign credit risks in Latin America and the construction of a new sovereign credit rating system [1][2][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China - Latin America Cooperation Enters a New Stage - On May 13, 2025, the Fourth Ministerial Meeting of the China - CELAC Forum was held in Beijing. On May 14, a seminar on China - Latin America panda bonds was held, with representatives from China and Brazil participating [1]. - Latin America is rich in resources and strategically important. In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Latin America reached $500 billion. By the end of 2023, China's direct investment stock in Latin America was $600.8 billion. China has 5 free - trade partners in Latin America, and the free - trade dividends are constantly emerging [2]. - China's political relations with Latin American countries have been upgraded. China has proposed initiatives that are increasingly recognized by Latin American countries, and more than 20 countries have signed Belt and Road cooperation memorandums with China [4]. 3.2 Promising Prospect of China - Latin America Panda Bond Cooperation - In 2024, 44 entities issued 109 panda bonds with a total issuance scale of 194.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.1%. The proportion of overseas investors increased significantly to nearly 50% [6]. - In November 2024, the first panda bond issued by a Latin American entity was successfully issued, setting a benchmark for more Latin American issuers [6][7]. - Chinese rating agencies play an important role in bridging information asymmetry between overseas issuers and domestic investors. However, they need to innovate rating methods due to the limitations of local ratings and geopolitical changes [9]. 3.3 Attention to Sovereign Credit Risks in Latin America - Sovereign credit risk is an important factor affecting Latin American entities' issuance of panda bonds. The deepening of China - Latin America political mutual trust and cooperation helps improve the sovereign credit strength of Latin American economies in RMB terms [10]. - In 2025, Latin American economic growth is expected to slow from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0%. Different countries face various challenges: Brazil has fiscal problems; Mexico is affected by the US economy; Argentina has high inflation and debt; Chile is at risk of relying on single - resource exports; and Colombia has fiscal and political uncertainties [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The successful issuance of the first panda bond in Latin America and Brazil by Suzano Group is a milestone in China - Brazil economic and trade exchanges, which is expected to attract more Brazilian entities to participate in the panda bond market [1][4]. - Zhongchengxin International rated Suzano Group's entities and the panda bond as AAA with a stable outlook, considering its strong business strength, profitability, and solvency, while also paying attention to some influencing factors [2]. - Zhongchengxin International upgraded Brazil's sovereign credit rating from BBg to BB+g in April 2024, and the Brazilian economy shows certain resilience and development potential in the medium - long term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content A. Panda Bond Issuance - On November 15, 2024, "24 Suzano GN001BC" was successfully issued, raising RMB 1.2 billion with a coupon rate of 2.8%. It is the first panda bond issued in Latin America and Brazil [1]. B. Credit Rating of Suzano Group - Zhongchengxin International rated the issuer Suzano International Financial Co., Ltd. and the guarantor Suzano S.A. with a AAA credit rating and a stable outlook, and also rated the panda bond "24 Suzano GN001BC" as AAA [2]. - Suzano Group has a complete R & D system, integrated industry chain, high raw material self - sufficiency rate, low production cost, strong profitability, and good solvency [2]. C. Brazil's Economic Situation and Sovereign Credit Rating - In April 2024, Zhongchengxin International upgraded Brazil's sovereign credit rating from BBg to BB+g with a stable outlook [3]. - Brazil's economy showed strong resilience in 2023 and 2024, but may slow down in 2025. In the medium - long term, relevant plans and tax reforms are expected to promote economic transformation and upgrading [3]. D. China - Brazil Economic and Trade Relations - China is Brazil's largest trading partner, and bilateral trade exceeded $180 billion in 2023. China's cumulative investment in Brazil has exceeded $70 billion [4]. - The successful issuance of Suzano Group's panda bond deepens China - Brazil cooperation in the financial field and promotes the participation of Brazilian entities in the panda bond market [4]. E. Zhongchengxin International's Market Position and International Cooperation - Zhongchengxin International has an absolute advantage in the public - issuance market of panda bond ratings, with a long - term market share of over 50% and has underwritten multiple first - of - its - kind panda bonds [5]. - Zhongchengxin International actively participates in BRICS rating cooperation, serving as the Chinese contact chair of the credit rating group of the BRICS Business Council Financial Services Working Group since 2024 [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the AMC industry in the context of personal loan non-performing assets, highlighting new business opportunities and regulatory support for compliance and orderly operations [3][4][6]. Core Insights - The personal loan non-performing asset market is experiencing rapid growth due to macroeconomic downturns, income fluctuations, and industry adjustments, presenting new business opportunities for AMCs [3][4]. - Regulatory policies have established a framework for the orderly development of personal loan non-performing asset management, emphasizing self-collection, outsourcing, and restructuring while prohibiting secondary transfers of non-performing loans [4][6]. - The market structure shows a dominance of local AMCs, with national AMCs beginning to make inroads, and a significant increase in the scale of personal loan non-performing assets since the pilot program began [11][16]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Policies Related to Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - The report discusses the initiation of batch transfers of personal non-performing loans through regulatory notifications, which have opened new avenues for AMCs and emphasized the need for compliance in asset recovery [6][8]. - Key regulatory documents from 2021 to 2024 have progressively expanded the scope of participating institutions and asset types, enhancing market competition and establishing a more structured regulatory environment [8][10]. Market Size and Characteristics of Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - The personal loan non-performing asset market has seen a significant increase, with a total of 1,314 asset packages listed by the end of 2024, amounting to 348.1 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 142.53% from 2021 to 2024 [11]. - The composition of non-performing loans has shifted, with consumer loans and credit card overdrafts becoming more prominent, indicating a changing landscape in asset types [11][12]. Main Modes of AMC Disposal of Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - AMCs primarily utilize traditional methods such as collection, legal action, debt restructuring, and judicial mediation, while some have adopted innovative approaches like asset securitization [20][21]. - The report highlights the varying recovery efficiencies across different disposal methods, with traditional methods generally yielding quicker returns but requiring significant financial strength and operational capability [20][22]. Case Studies of AMC Disposal of Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - The report presents case studies illustrating how AMCs have integrated technology with traditional and innovative disposal methods to enhance recovery efficiency [26][30]. - Specific examples include the use of AI and big data by AMCs to optimize asset recovery processes and the establishment of partnerships with financial institutions to create specialized funds for asset management [30][34]. Challenges and Solutions in AMC Disposal of Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - AMCs face challenges such as valuation difficulties, lack of experience, high judicial execution challenges, compliance risks, and profitability pressures [37][38]. - The report suggests that AMCs should enhance technological capabilities, optimize valuation models, and collaborate with regulatory bodies and third-party service providers to build a sustainable ecosystem for managing personal loan non-performing assets [41][42].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In H1 2025, the urban investment bond market continued the 2024 policy line, with short - term debt resolution showing results, "exiting the platform" and urban investment transformation accelerating. However, in the long run, urban investment financing channels are restricted, and liquidity pressure in some regions is not fully alleviated. It is expected that implicit debt resolution, "exiting key provinces" and "exiting the platform" will accelerate, and the industrial transformation of urban investment enterprises will further speed up, but attention should be paid to the risks during the transformation process [4] - The overall supply of urban investment bonds tightened in H1 2025, with a year - on - year decline in issuance and net financing. Yields fluctuated downward, and the difference in yields among different credit - rated bonds widened. The net financing of low - level and low - rated issuers remained weak, and the financing pressure on weak - quality urban investment enterprises persisted [3][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section I. National Urban Investment Bond Overall Issuance Overview and Characteristics in H1 and Q2 2025 - **Issuance and Net Financing**: Under the "controlling increment and resolving stock" policy, the issuance policy remained strictly regulated. In H1 2025, 4,339 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2.808708 trillion yuan and a net financing of - 76.36 billion yuan. The total issuance decreased by 11.55% year - on - year, and net financing decreased by 149.16% year - on - year. The net financing turned negative, and the supply tightened. Monthly issuance showed a decline in April and May and a recovery in June [3][6] - **Yield and Cost**: Yields fluctuated downward, and the difference in yields among different credit - rated bonds widened. The issuance cost decreased significantly, and the number of cancelled issuances decreased since April. High - interest urban investment bonds were mainly in regions with negative public opinions and weak economic and fiscal strength. The issuance of ultra - long - term (10 - year and above) urban investment bonds increased year - on - year, mainly in developed provincial capitals, with AAA ratings and mainly medium - term notes and private placement bonds [3][8] - **Issuer Characteristics**: The issuance and net financing of all types of issuers decreased year - on - year. Low - level and low - rated issuers had weak net financing, especially district - level urban investment enterprises whose net financing gap continued to expand. In H1 2025, the net financing of AA - rated enterprises was the weakest, and the net financing of AA+ enterprises turned negative in Q2 [3][15] - **Regional Distribution**: Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang were the top three provinces in terms of issuance amount, but the net financing of Jiangsu and Zhejiang was negative. Key provinces' debt resolution advanced steadily, with a decline in issuance and a narrowing net financing gap, showing internal differentiation. Non - key provinces' net financing turned negative [4][18][19] - **New Issuance**: New issuances were mainly in regions with economic, fiscal, or industrial advantages. Key provinces had fewer new issuances. In H1 2025, 252 new bonds were issued, with a total amount of 203.225 billion yuan, mainly by AAA and AA+ enterprises [4][23] II. Concerns in the Current Urban Investment Bond Market - **Short - term Debt Resolution and Transformation**: In H1 2025, the market continued the 2024 policy line. Short - term debt resolution was effective, and urban investment transformation accelerated. However, fiscal pressure remained, and the effects of policies needed further observation [27][28] - **Differentiated Debt Resolution Progress**: The progress of debt resolution varied across regions. The "exiting the platform" process accelerated, and the non - standard risk and bill overdue events of urban investment enterprises decreased marginally. Key provinces advanced faster in debt resolution, and non - key provinces also made progress but faced challenges in reducing high - interest debts [32][33] - **Marketization Transformation Risks**: The transformation of urban investment enterprises was accelerating, but there was a risk of "false transformation", which could lead to capital recovery risks and drag on regional development. Attention should be paid to the reconstruction of government - enterprise relations and the debt burden caused by "heavy investment, light output" [34][37]

Group 1: Policy and Market Trends - The central government has issued 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity and expand financial support for consumption, focusing on various sectors including culture, tourism, and education[2] - The issuance of consumer ABS products, particularly personal auto loans and personal consumption loans, has been active, with a total issuance of 343.43 billion CNY and 183.41 billion CNY respectively, accounting for 54.94% of the total credit ABS issuance[2] - The overall market saw a decrease in issuance, with 161 asset securitization products issued in May 2025, totaling 1519.26 billion CNY, a 29% decline from the previous period[3] Group 2: Product Performance and Costs - The average issuance cost for policy pledge loan products remains the highest, while other categories do not exceed 3%[3] - Personal auto loan products have the largest issuance scale, while non-performing loans and micro-enterprise loans have lower issuance volumes[9] - The average issuance cost for non-performing loans is still the highest, indicating a relatively high risk premium[14] Group 3: Market Activity and Secondary Trading - In the interbank market, 21 ABS products were issued, totaling 239.05 billion CNY, with a stable issuance scale compared to the previous month[6] - The trading volume for bank and internet consumer loans, accounts receivable, and REITs remains active, with a total transaction volume of 89.90 billion CNY in the interbank market[24] - The transaction volume for exchange ABS decreased to 722.64 billion CNY, reflecting a further decline in trading activity[27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose," with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible, likely in September - October. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools such as relending. There is also a possibility of restarting treasury bond trading [4][32]. - The issuance of interest - rate bonds in the second half of the year may exceed 14 trillion yuan. The supply pressure will be high in the third quarter, and there may be an additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [4][36]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monetary Policy and Liquidity Monitoring - **Implementation of a Package of Monetary Policy Measures with a Continuously "Moderately Loose" Tone**: The monetary policy framework has been continuously adjusted, with the policy - rate attribute of MLF fading out. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has become the core policy rate. The policy tone remains "moderately loose," with RRR cuts and interest rate cuts implemented again, and structural tools continuously exerting their effects. Open - market operations have been marginally relaxed, and more attention has been paid to asset prices [6][7][9]. - **Quarterly Decline in the Central Level of Capital Interest Rates**: In the first quarter, due to the central bank's emphasis on preventing capital idling, the capital market was relatively tight. In the second quarter, after the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts and the marginal easing of the central bank's attitude, the capital interest rates declined. The spread between DR007 and R007 remained at a low level [13]. 3.2 Operating Characteristics of the Interest - Rate Bond Market - **Year - on - Year Increase in the Issuance of All Types of Interest - Rate Bonds**: In the first half of 2025, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds reached 16.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. The issuance of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all increased. Special treasury bonds worth over 1 trillion yuan were issued [16]. - **Downward Trend in the Central Level of Interest - Rate Bond Yields**: The yields of interest - rate bonds generally showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the central level declining quarterly. The operation of the 10 - year treasury bond yield can be divided into three rounds, with different influencing factors in each round [21][22]. - **Widening but Still Low Term Spread and Narrowing Local Bond Spread**: In the second quarter, the 10Y - 1Y spread widened marginally but remained at a historically low level. The local bond spread narrowed, which may be related to the previous decline in treasury bond yields and increased trading and allocation of local bonds by some institutions [28]. 3.3 Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - **Possible RRR Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts and Strengthened Use of Structural Tools**: Due to the uncertainty of external and domestic demand increasing the pressure on economic recovery, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose" in the second half of the year, with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools [32]. - **Issuance of Interest - Rate Bonds May Exceed 14 Trillion Yuan and Declining Yield Central Level**: In the second half of the year, the issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 14 trillion yuan, with high supply pressure in the third quarter and a possible additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The central level of yields will continue to decline, and the core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [36][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Stock Exchange piloted the continuous issuance business of corporate bonds, which enriches the issuance methods of corporate bonds, enhances financing flexibility, and promotes the development of the bond market [3][9]. - In April, the growth rates of major economic indicators slowed down, but the economic recovery still showed some resilience. The central bank net - injected funds, and the capital prices showed mixed trends. The issuance of credit bonds in the primary market heated up, while the trading activity in the secondary market declined, and the yields of most bonds decreased [4][5][6][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspot - On May 22, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice to pilot the continuous issuance of corporate bonds and the expansion of asset - backed securities. The continuous issuance of corporate bonds allows incremental issuance on existing bonds, which has advantages such as improving issuance efficiency and enhancing bond liquidity. Credit rating agencies need to optimize rating methods [3][9][10]. Macroeconomic Data - In April, the growth rates of production, consumption, and investment data slowed down slightly. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.1%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4.0%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. However, equipment purchase investment played a leading role [4][12]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 960 billion yuan through open - market operations. The overnight and 7 - day pledged repurchase rates decreased by 7bp and 5bp respectively, while the other - term pledged repurchase rates increased by 1 - 5bp. The 3 - month Shibor remained unchanged from the previous week, and the 1 - year Shibor increased by 1bp, with the spread widening to 4bp [5][14]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds heated up, with a scale of 241.311 billion yuan, an increase of 108.134 billion yuan from the previous period. The issuance scales of various bond types and industries increased. The average issuance interest rates of bonds of various terms and grades generally increased, with an increase range of 2bp - 44bp [6][17][18]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the trading volume of cash bonds in the secondary market was 8.408721 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 31.2034 billion yuan from the previous period. The yields of interest - rate bonds fluctuated slightly, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 4bp to 1.72%. The yields of credit bonds decreased comprehensively, with a change range of 1 - 7bp. The credit spreads narrowed comprehensively, with a range of 1bp - 9bp, and the rating spreads showed mixed trends [7][31][34]. Regulatory and Market Innovation Dynamics - Multiple regulatory policies were introduced in May 2025, including promoting the construction of a scientific and technological finance system, supporting the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds, and providing policy support such as fee reduction and exemption to encourage innovation in the bond market and support scientific and technological innovation [44][46][47]. Bond Market Credit Risk Events - There were multiple credit risk events in the bond market, including bond principal and interest extensions, defaults, etc., involving companies such as Wuhan Contemporary Technology Investment Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou R & F Properties Co., Ltd. [43].