Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In the context of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, the bond market adjusted due to the stock market's rise. However, the bond market still has support from fundamentals and capital, and the yield center may remain low. The Politburo meeting's policies may boost stock market activity, causing short-term disturbances to the bond market [4][11][12] - The Central Bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a document encouraging the issuance of rural revitalization bonds, which may lead to the expansion of such bonds [5][14][15] - Industrial enterprise profits declined in the first half of the year, with industrial product prices dragging down revenue and profits, while "volume" remained an important support factor for profit recovery [6][17] Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Stock-Bond Seesaw Effect and Bond Market Adjustment**: The stock market rose significantly last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3600 points, triggering the "stock-bond seesaw" effect. The bond market adjusted, with most major bond market indices falling and bond yields rising. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 1.73%. The Politburo meeting's policies may increase stock market activity, causing short-term disturbances to the bond market, but the bond market still has support [4][11][12] - **Policy Encouragement for Rural Revitalization Bonds**: The Central Bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a document encouraging the issuance of rural revitalization bonds. This policy aims to provide comprehensive financial support for rural revitalization, and rural revitalization bonds may expand in the future [5][14][15] Macroeconomic Data - Industrial enterprise profits declined by 1.8% year-on-year from January to June, with the decline widening compared to the previous period. In June, the profit decline narrowed, indicating marginal improvement but overall weakness. Industrial product prices continued to drag down profits, while industrial production was supported by factors such as the "export rush" effect and the "618" shopping festival [6][17] Money Market - The central bank's net capital injection decreased last week, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity. Most interbank repurchase rates rose, except for a slight decline in the DR1m rate. The spread between the 3-month and 1-year Shibor widened [20] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased last week, reaching 3243.17 billion yuan, an increase of 418.72 billion yuan from the previous period. Different bond types showed varying trends, with ultra-short-term financing bonds and corporate bonds increasing significantly. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net outflow of financing, while most industries in the industrial bond sector had a net inflow. The issuance cost of credit bonds mostly increased [23][25][31] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The trading volume in the secondary bond market increased last week, with the daily average trading volume reaching 19682.03 billion yuan. Bond yields generally rose, with interest rate bonds and credit bonds both showing significant increases. Most credit spreads widened, while rating spreads showed mixed trends with small changes [33][36][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In July 2025, the issuance pace of asset - backed notes slowed down, while personal consumer finance assets were active. The issuance volume and scale decreased compared to the previous month, and the secondary - market transaction amount also declined year - on - year [4][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance Situation - **Overall Issuance**: 52 asset - backed note products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 39.43 billion yuan. Compared with the previous month, the number of issuances decreased by 6, and the scale dropped by 28.68%. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the number increased by 5, but the scale decreased by 13.20%. Only 2 were publicly issued, and the rest were privately placed [4][5]. - **Top - Ten Issuing Institutions**: Huaxin International Trust Co., Ltd. ranked first with an issuance scale of 5 billion yuan (12.81%). The top - ten issuing institutions had a total issuance scale of 29.644 billion yuan, accounting for 75.93% [5]. - **Underlying Asset Categories**: Personal consumer finance products accounted for 49.40% in terms of scale (23 issuances), followed by small - and - micro loans (27.66%, 13 issuances), supply chain (5.27%, 6 issuances), etc. [7]. - **Issuance Scale Distribution**: Single - product issuance scale ranged from 121 million yuan to 1.5 billion yuan. Products with a single - issuance scale of (5, 10] billion yuan had the largest number of issuances (33) and scale (78.53%) [10]. - **Term Distribution**: The shortest term was 0.27 years, and the longest was 9.55 years. Products with a term of (1, 2] years had the largest number of issuances (24) and scale (49.97%) [12][15]. - **Level Distribution**: AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 88.56% of the issuance scale [15]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: For one - year - around AAAsf - rated notes, the lowest issuance rate was 1.73%, the highest was 3.20%, and the rate center was around 1.78% [4][17]. - **ABCP Issuance**: 12 ABCP products were issued, with a total scale of 7.209 billion yuan, accounting for 18.46% of the ABN issuance scale. Personal consumer finance ABCP accounted for 55.34% of the ABCP issuance scale [20]. 3.2 Secondary - Market Transaction Situation - **Transaction Volume and Amount**: There were 533 secondary - market transactions in July 2025. The number of transactions increased by 12.21% month - on - month and 0.57% year - on - year, while the transaction amount decreased by 5.11% month - on - month and 25.73% year - on - year [21]. - **Underlying Asset Type Distribution**: The most active underlying asset types in the secondary - market transactions were personal consumer finance (34.99%), small - and - micro loans (13.89%), etc. [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "infrastructure investment") industry continued to implement the working idea of "debt resolution in development", promoting debt risk resolution through debt - end "pressure relief" and investment - end "oxygen increase", and enhancing the development momentum of infrastructure investment enterprises and local economies [2]. - The short - term policy benefits in the infrastructure investment industry conflict with the long - term "weak" fundamentals. Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the resolution of the large - scale operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises still takes time. In the context of accelerating platform exit and transformation, credit risks and regional risk resonance should be guarded against, and the evolution of the government - enterprise relationship needs to be dynamically examined and evaluated [17][18]. - In the second half of 2025, new investment space may be opened, which is conducive to accelerating the transformation and development of infrastructure investment enterprises and promoting the re - balance between "debt resolution and development" [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **New special bonds reach a new high and support scope changes**: In 2025, the new special bond quota increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 12.8%, with 800 billion yuan earmarked for resolving existing implicit debts. As of June 29, 2112.705 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for 48.02% of the annual quota. The support scope has expanded, including real estate acquisition, idle land revitalization, emerging industry infrastructure, and urban renewal projects. The "self - review and self - issuance" mechanism can improve the efficiency of special bond issuance and use [3][4]. - **Local government debt risk resolution advances**: In the first half of the year, large - scale debt replacement was carried out. Refinancing bonds were issued in advance, reaching 2.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. Special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts totaled 1795.938 billion yuan, nearly 90% of the annual 2 - trillion - yuan quota. Many places promoted financial debt resolution and explored emergency fund support. Central authorities emphasized clearing government arrears, and the Ministry of Finance announced six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability to prevent new implicit debts [5]. - **Dynamic optimization of debt risk list management and enterprise transformation**: The government emphasized the dynamic adjustment of high - risk debt area lists and supported the opening of new investment space. Regulatory authorities strengthened the supervision of urban investment bond issuance, guiding infrastructure investment enterprises to exit platforms and transform into industries [6]. - **Optimization and innovation of public investment models**: The State Council issued a guiding opinion on promoting the high - quality development of government investment funds. The PPP model was innovated, and local governments explored new practices such as the public infrastructure leasing mechanism. Many provinces issued incentive policies for infrastructure REITs [7][8]. 3.2 Policy Main Impacts - **Relief of short - term solvency pressure**: As of June 29, 2025, local government bonds' new issuance totaled 2558.122 billion yuan, 49.19% of the annual quota, and refinancing bonds totaled 2877.486 billion yuan, with 1795.938 billion yuan used for replacing implicit debts, improving the refinancing environment of infrastructure investment enterprises [10]. - **Expansion of special bond investment areas and increased regional differentiation**: As of June 29, 2025, new special bonds of 2112.705 billion yuan were issued, 48.02% of the annual quota. The issuance progress was faster than the previous year. However, the issuance was more differentiated among regions [11]. - **Tightening of urban investment bond supply**: In the first half of 2025, 4339 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2808.708 billion yuan and a net financing of - 76.36 billion yuan. The net financing decreased year - on - year, and the supply continued to tighten [11]. - **Decline in financing costs**: In the first half of 2025, the weighted average issuance interest rate of national urban investment bonds was 2.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41 percentage points [12]. - **Optimization of financing channels**: The proportion of credit financing of urban investment enterprises increased, while the proportion of bond financing decreased, and the scale and proportion of non - standard financing both declined [13]. - **Convergence of non - standard and bill risks**: In the first half of 2025, there were 16 urban investment non - standard risk events, and the number of new bond - issuing urban investment enterprises entering the continuous overdue list from January to June was 9, showing a significant decrease [14]. - **Acceleration of platform exit and transformation**: Policies promoted the high - quality acceleration of infrastructure investment enterprises' "platform exit" and transformation. However, the new issuance space of urban investment bonds may be further narrowed, and the proportion of borrowing new to repay old is expected to remain high [15]. 3.3 Industry Development Expectations - **Conflict between short - term benefits and long - term fundamentals**: Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the conflict between short - term policy benefits and long - term "weak" fundamentals is still prominent. A large number of operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises are difficult to resolve [17][18]. - **Risks in enterprise transformation**: The exit from platforms and industrial transformation of infrastructure investment enterprises will continue to accelerate. Attention should be paid to the credit risks under the phenomena of "shelling" of traditional urban investment, "formalization" and "radicalization" of transformed urban investment, and the possible regional risk resonance [19][20]. - **Evolution of government - enterprise relationship**: The promotion of goals such as platform exit, urban investment transformation, and implicit debt clearance will force the government - enterprise relationship to become clearer. However, it is necessary to dynamically examine and evaluate the evolution of this relationship [21][22].

www.ccxi.com.cn 国际宏观资讯双周报 5 月 20 日–6 月 3 日 2025 年第 10 期 本周资讯一览 热点评论 韩国央行宣布将基准利率下调 25 个基点至 2.5% 经济增长预期大幅下调 经济 财政 政治 国际收支 ESG 主权信用 惠誉将阿根廷主权信用等级由 CCC 上调至 CCC+ 展望维持稳定 | 杜凌轩 | 010-66428877-279 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | lxdu@ccxi.com.cn | | | 王家璐 | 010-66428877-451 | | | | jlwang@ccxi.com.cn | | | 于 嘉 | 010-66428877-242 | | | | jyu@ccxi.com.cn | | | 张晶鑫 | 010-66428877-243 | | | | jxzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | | 易 成 | 010-66428877-246 | | | | chyi@ccxi.com.cn | | | 方菏阳 | 010-66428877-567 | | | | hyfang@ccxi.com.cn | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the issuance scale of asset - backed notes increased rapidly year - on - year, and the issuance cost decreased. Personal consumer finance and micro - loans were active among the underlying assets. Secondary market transactions also showed growth [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Issuance Situation - In H1 2025, 280 asset - backed note products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 258.275 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 74 in quantity and 48.44% in scale. April had the highest issuance volume and scale [3][4]. - The top five issuing institutions in terms of issuance scale were SDIC Taikang Trust Co., Ltd., Beijing Jingdong Century Trading Co., Ltd., China National Foreign Trade Trust Co., Ltd., Huaxin International Trust Co., Ltd., and Huaneng Guicheng Trust Co., Ltd. The top five and top ten issuing institutions accounted for 42.97% and 62.85% of the total issuance scale respectively [6]. - In terms of underlying asset categories, debt - based ABNs dominated, with a scale of 231.007 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 52.45% and a scale share of 89.44%. The average issuance scale of other - type assets was the highest at 175.1 million yuan per unit [9]. - The underlying asset sub - types included personal consumer finance, micro - loans, accounts receivable, specific non - financial claims, and supply chains. Personal consumer finance had the largest scale share at 44.48% [11]. - The highest single - product issuance scale was 6.043 billion yuan, and the lowest was 90 million yuan. Products with a single - issuance scale in the (5, 10] billion yuan range had the largest number of issuances and the highest scale share [15]. - The shortest product term was 0.17 years, and the longest was 23.41 years. Products with a term in the (0, 1] year range had the largest number of issuances and the highest scale share [18]. - By rating level, AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 90.64% of the issuance scale [19]. - For one - year AAAsf - rated notes, the interest rate center was around 1.97%, and the median decreased by 34BP year - on - year [21]. - In H1 2025, 88 ABCP products were issued, with a total scale of 89.119 billion yuan, accounting for 34.51% of the ABN issuance scale [23]. Issuance Spread - Compared with the same - term treasury bonds, the issuance spread of 1 - year asset - backed notes narrowed, while that of 3 - year notes widened slightly. Compared with the same - term AAA - rated corporate bonds, the issuance spreads of both 1 - year and 3 - year asset - backed notes narrowed [27][29][32]. - For personal consumer finance, micro - loans, and accounts receivable, the issuance spreads showed different trends. The issuance costs of these three types of products decreased significantly compared with the previous year [32][34][36]. Secondary Market Transaction - In H1 2025, the total trading volume of asset - backed notes in the secondary market was 258.04 billion yuan, and the number of transactions was 2,840, with year - on - year increases of 23.34% and 21.89% respectively [39]. - The products with active secondary - market transactions were mainly personal consumer finance, class REITs, accounts receivable, micro - loans, and partnership shares [40]. Industry Dynamic Review - On March 14, 2025, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) issued the Action Plan for Further Supporting the High - quality Development of Private Enterprises in the Inter - bank Bond Market, which was conducive to optimizing the bond financing environment for private enterprises [42]. - On May 7, 2025, NAFMII issued the Notice on Launching Science and Technology Innovation Bonds and Building a "Science and Technology Board" in the Bond Market. On May 26, the first science and technology innovation asset - backed security was successfully issued, which was helpful for the bond market to serve the science and technology innovation field [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The state continues to maintain a high - pressure stance on implicit debt supervision and emphasizes preventing "risks from risk disposal". The National Development and Reform Commission promotes the safe and healthy development of the low - altitude economy, and Jilin emphasizes preventing the "re - occurrence of arrears while clearing" of enterprise accounts [2] - The development of the low - altitude economy offers a direction for the transformation of relevant urban investment enterprises, but they need to proceed from local resource endowments and their own actual situations, avoid blind following, and prevent inefficient and repeated construction [5][10] - Jilin and Shaanxi's Xianyang have made positive progress in debt risk resolution and state - owned enterprise reform [5][11] Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **National Development and Reform Commission promotes low - altitude economy**: The NDRC held a special meeting on promoting the safe and healthy development of the low - altitude economy. Urban investment enterprises can rationally layout related businesses, but the low - altitude economy has no mature profit model yet, and enterprises should avoid blind investment [5][6][10] - **Jilin and Shaanxi's progress**: Jilin emphasized preventing "re - occurrence of arrears while clearing" of enterprise accounts and resolving local government debt risks. Shaanxi's Xianyang made positive progress in debt resolution and state - owned enterprise reform, with the enterprise debt - to - asset ratio decreasing by 2.72 percentage points compared to the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" [5][11] - **Early redemption of bonds**: 19 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance, involving 20 bonds with a total scale of 47.16 billion yuan, an increase of 20.12 billion yuan compared to the previous period [14] - **Cancellation or postponement of bond issuance**: 4 urban investment bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance, with a planned total issuance scale of 9.50 billion yuan [15] 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local government bonds**: The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased this week. The issuance scale reached 251.183 billion yuan, a 8.37% increase from the previous period, and the net financing increased by 40.27 billion yuan to 150.499 billion yuan. The issuance of new special bonds exceeded half of the annual quota. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose by 3.40BP to 1.84%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed by 0.41BP to 9.95BP [16][17] - **Urban investment bonds**: The issuance scale and net financing of urban investment bonds increased. A total of 155 bonds were issued, with a scale of 98.495 billion yuan, a 10.74% increase from the previous period, and the net financing turned positive to 44.64 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate was 2.20%, a 7.35BP increase from the previous period, and the issuance spread widened by 5.53BP to 72.00BP. Six overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 9.91 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate was 5.15% [22] 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Funding situation**: The central bank conducted 1726.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 1201.1 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose [28] - **Credit rating adjustment**: No urban investment enterprises had their credit ratings adjusted this week [28] - **Credit events and regulatory penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [28] - **Local government bond trading**: The trading volume of local government bond cash bonds was 404.193 billion yuan, a 3.48% increase from the previous period. Most of the maturity yields declined, with an average decline of 1.75BP [28] - **Urban investment bond trading**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 257.481 billion yuan, a 9.63% decrease from the previous period. Most of the maturity yields declined, with an average decline of 1.96BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed by 0.23BP, 1.65BP, and 0.15BP respectively [28] - **Abnormal trading of urban investment bonds**: Under the broad - based standard, 14 urban investment entities had 16 abnormal bond trades, with the number of entities, bonds, and abnormal trades all decreasing [29] 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - A total of 53 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, and name changes [34]

房地产行业 作者: 中诚信国际 企业评级部 侯一甲 027-87339288 yjhou@ccxi.com.cn 杜志英 027-87339288 zhydu@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe @ccxi.com.cn 市场跟踪 专项债土地收储加速，行业延续止跌回稳 态势——2025年 6月房地产市场跟踪 "降准降息、公积金贷款利率下调"三箭 齐发，金融政策协调巩固行业企稳态势— —2025年 5月房地产市场跟踪 楼市"小阳春"如期而至，"好房子"时 代来临——2025年4月房地产市场跟踪 政府工作报告首提"稳住楼市"，坚持在发展 中逐步化解风险——2025年3月房地产市场 跟踪 法拍房成交率有望提升，助力新房市场企 稳——2025年1月房地产市场跟踪 市场交易明显升温，政策薪火持续加力 ——2024年12月房地产市场跟踪 房价现企稳迹象，政策加速落地继续保驾 护航——2024年11月房地产市场跟踪 重启货币化安置和土储专项债：止跌回稳 转向信号下的老路新履——2024 年 10 月房 地产市场跟踪 美联储降息与房地产新政：市场活力的新 希望——2024年 9月房 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the first half of 2025, China's bond market continued to strengthen its direct financing function, focusing on "improving quality and efficiency, serving the real economy." It launched the "Technology Board" of the bond market, increased targeted support for key areas such as technological innovation and private enterprises, strengthened requirements for issuance, trading, and valuation, promoted market standardization, and further advanced opening - up to promote the interconnection of domestic and foreign bond markets [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Areas: The "Technology Board" of the Bond Market Sets Sail, and Policy "Combinations" Inject New Development Momentum - **Policy for Technological Innovation**: Policies in the technological innovation field were intensively introduced. The "Technology Board" of the bond market was officially launched, supporting three types of entities to issue technological innovation bonds. The issuance scale of technological innovation bonds reached about 1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 86%. The risk - sharing tools and ETFs for technological innovation bonds made positive progress [4][6][11]. - **Support for Consumption and Sports Industries**: The bond market increased support for the consumption and sports industries. In the sports industry, relevant departments issued a guiding opinion to support sports enterprises in issuing bonds. In the consumption field, policies were introduced to support enterprises in service consumption areas to issue bonds [12][14]. 2. Weak Links: Policies Intensify to Release Positive Signals, and the Financing Situation of Private Enterprises Remains to Be Continuously Observed - **Policy Attention**: The central government deployed efforts to solve the financing problems of private enterprises. The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was officially implemented, emphasizing support for private enterprises to obtain direct financing through bonds [15][16][18]. - **Financing Situation**: Although the bond financing of private enterprises improved marginally, overall, it still faced constraints such as insufficient demand and high costs. The improvement of private enterprise bond financing requires time [21][22]. 3. Basic Systems: Adhere to the Main Line of Standardized System Construction and Promote the High - Quality Development of the Bond Market - **System Rule Optimization**: The bond market optimized rules for issuance, trading, and valuation. For example, it reduced bond trading and settlement fees, revised company bond review guidelines, and optimized bond valuation guidelines [25][26][27]. - **Risk Management**: It standardized debt - restructuring bond replacement business and improved the institutional framework of credit risk mitigation tools to enhance the flexibility of product creation [28][29]. 4. Opening - up: The Bond Connect Has Made Positive Progress, and Upgraded Measures May Accelerate the Opening - up Process - **Free - Trade Offshore Bonds**: There are expectations for the restart of free - trade offshore bonds, emphasizing the "two - ends - abroad" principle to support domestic enterprises' overseas financing and attract foreign investment [33]. - **Bond Connect Optimization**: The Bond Connect reached its eighth anniversary. The scope of "South - bound Connect" investors was expanded to non - banking institutions, and relevant mechanisms were optimized to promote the interconnection of domestic and foreign markets [34][37]. - **Bond Allocation Value**: China's bonds have good allocation value. Against the backdrop of Sino - US tariff frictions, they may attract more long - term allocation funds, and the bond market's opening - up level is expected to continue to deepen [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the credit bond issuance is expected to continue expanding, with the issuance scale possibly reaching its peak in the third quarter. The issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds may further shrink, while the expansion of industrial bonds and science - and technology innovation bonds will dominate the supply. The yield of the bond market may continue the downward trend, and the credit spread may still have room for compression. Investors are advised to dig into the investment value of high - grade credit bonds, pay attention to market fluctuations, and focus on investment opportunities in the consumption field, stable industries, and science - and technology innovation bond field [5][6][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First - half Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.1.1 Primary Market - **Overall issuance situation**: The total issuance of credit bonds increased moderately, with a net financing scale of 971.083 billion yuan, showing a mild recovery. The issuance interest rate first rose and then fell, remaining at a low level. The term structure continued to optimize, with the proportion of medium - and long - term varieties increasing. The issuance scale of medium - term notes continued to expand, and the issuance scale of corporate bonds exceeded that of ultra - short - term financing for the first time [5][7][12]. - **Industry differences**: The issuance of industrial bonds expanded significantly, with a scale of 4.26 trillion yuan and a net financing scale of 1.11 trillion yuan. Urban investment bonds had a net outflow of 120.004 billion yuan, and the net outflow situation was obvious from March to June [17]. - **Innovative varieties**: The issuance scale of innovative varieties of credit bonds expanded significantly, reaching 1.090689 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of science - and technology innovation bonds increased explosively, reaching 879.619 billion yuan, and the scale of green - labeled bonds also continued to expand [24]. - **Issuer structure**: The credit bond financing still showed obvious subject stratification. Central and state - owned enterprises dominated, while the private enterprise bond financing achieved marginal improvement. The issuance scale of private enterprise credit bonds was 346.661 billion yuan, with a net financing of 337.27 billion yuan [27][28]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - **Trading activity**: The trading activity of credit bonds declined, and the trading scale of short - term financing bonds decreased significantly. The total trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market decreased by 8.89% compared with last year to 27.64 trillion yuan [36]. - **Yield trend**: The bond market yield first fluctuated and then stabilized. The "asset shortage" pattern generally continued. The yield of treasury bonds and medium - and short - term notes mostly increased slightly compared with the beginning of the year [38][40]. - **Credit spread**: The credit spread mostly narrowed. The credit spread of medium - and short - term notes generally narrowed by 2 - 68bp, and most of the inter - grade spreads also narrowed [43]. - **Industry spread**: The spreads of all industries narrowed comprehensively. The real estate industry still had the highest spread, but it narrowed compared with the first quarter. The spreads of industries such as construction and automobiles narrowed significantly [45][46]. 3.2 Outlook and Strategy Suggestions for the Second Half of 2025 3.2.1 Financing Outlook - The credit bond issuance is expected to continue expanding, and the issuance scale may reach its peak in the third quarter. The issuance scale for the whole year is predicted to be about 16.3 - 16.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of about 3% - 6%. The credit spread may reach its lowest point in the third quarter, but there is a possibility of an "up - after - down" reversal in interest rates in the fourth quarter [48][49]. 3.2.2 Interest Rate Trend - The bond market yield may continue the downward trend. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.4% - 1.7%. The credit spread of credit bonds may still have room for compression [51][53]. 3.2.3 Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to further explore the investment value of high - grade credit bonds, screen individual bonds with good credit quality and room for spread compression, and pay attention to market fluctuations for trading gains. Specific investment fields include the consumption field, stable industries, and science - and technology innovation bond fields [54][55].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Central Urban Work Conference points out a new direction for urban development. Special bond support areas may be further tilted towards urban renewal, green - low - carbon, safety - resilience, and smart governance. Urban investment enterprises can participate in urban renewal and smart city operations to accelerate market - oriented transformation [7][9]. - Jilin plans to issue 26 billion yuan of special bonds for small and medium - sized banks to support the establishment of a provincial rural commercial bank. In the future, more provinces may issue relevant bonds to support small and medium - sized banks and explore the feasibility of supporting other local small and medium - sized financial institutions [11]. - This week, the issuance and net financing of local government bonds and urban investment bonds both increased, with different trends in issuance costs and structures [16][20]. Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Central Urban Work Conference**: Held from July 14th to 15th, it emphasizes "five transformations" and "seven key tasks". Special bond support areas may be tilted towards urban renewal, etc., and urban investment enterprises can accelerate transformation [7][8][9]. - **Jilin's Special Bond Issuance**: Jilin plans to issue 26 billion yuan of special bonds for small and medium - sized banks on July 22nd. More provinces may follow suit to support small and medium - sized banks and explore supporting other local small and medium - sized financial institutions [11][12]. - **Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds**: 18 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 20 bonds with a total scale of 2.704 billion yuan [14][15]. - **Cancellation or Postponement of Urban Investment Bond Issuance**: No urban investment bonds were cancelled or postponed this week [16]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: 45 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 231.79 billion yuan, a net financing of 110.229 billion yuan. The issuance of new special bonds exceeded half of the annual quota. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose to 1.80%, and the spread widened to 10.35BP [16]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: 135 urban investment bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 88.943 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 3.301 billion yuan. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.13%, and the spread was 66.47BP. Four overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 4.467 billion yuan [20]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Funds and Credit Rating Adjustment**: The central bank net - withdrew 22.65 billion yuan this week. On July 9th, 2025, Zhongzheng Pengyuan downgraded the rating of "22 Shenshan Investment MTN001" of Guangdong Shenshan Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. from AAA to AA+ [23][24]. - **Trading Volume and Yield**: The trading volume of local government bonds was 390.614 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.89%. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 284.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.16%. The yields of both mostly increased [24]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: 18 urban investment entities had 22 abnormal bond trades, with an increase in the number of entities, bonds, and trades [25]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises 86 urban investment enterprises issued announcements on changes in senior management, legal representatives, etc., including changes in executives, legal representatives, directors, and supervisors; changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers; equity/asset transfers; changes in fund use; cumulative new borrowings; and external guarantees [29].