Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the AMC industry in the context of personal loan non-performing assets, highlighting new business opportunities and regulatory support for compliance and orderly operations [3][4][6]. Core Insights - The personal loan non-performing asset market is experiencing rapid growth due to macroeconomic downturns, income fluctuations, and industry adjustments, presenting new business opportunities for AMCs [3][4]. - Regulatory policies have established a framework for the orderly development of personal loan non-performing asset management, emphasizing self-collection, outsourcing, and restructuring while prohibiting secondary transfers of non-performing loans [4][6]. - The market structure shows a dominance of local AMCs, with national AMCs beginning to make inroads, and a significant increase in the scale of personal loan non-performing assets since the pilot program began [11][16]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Policies Related to Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - The report discusses the initiation of batch transfers of personal non-performing loans through regulatory notifications, which have opened new avenues for AMCs and emphasized the need for compliance in asset recovery [6][8]. - Key regulatory documents from 2021 to 2024 have progressively expanded the scope of participating institutions and asset types, enhancing market competition and establishing a more structured regulatory environment [8][10]. Market Size and Characteristics of Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - The personal loan non-performing asset market has seen a significant increase, with a total of 1,314 asset packages listed by the end of 2024, amounting to 348.1 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 142.53% from 2021 to 2024 [11]. - The composition of non-performing loans has shifted, with consumer loans and credit card overdrafts becoming more prominent, indicating a changing landscape in asset types [11][12]. Main Modes of AMC Disposal of Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - AMCs primarily utilize traditional methods such as collection, legal action, debt restructuring, and judicial mediation, while some have adopted innovative approaches like asset securitization [20][21]. - The report highlights the varying recovery efficiencies across different disposal methods, with traditional methods generally yielding quicker returns but requiring significant financial strength and operational capability [20][22]. Case Studies of AMC Disposal of Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - The report presents case studies illustrating how AMCs have integrated technology with traditional and innovative disposal methods to enhance recovery efficiency [26][30]. - Specific examples include the use of AI and big data by AMCs to optimize asset recovery processes and the establishment of partnerships with financial institutions to create specialized funds for asset management [30][34]. Challenges and Solutions in AMC Disposal of Personal Loan Non-Performing Assets - AMCs face challenges such as valuation difficulties, lack of experience, high judicial execution challenges, compliance risks, and profitability pressures [37][38]. - The report suggests that AMCs should enhance technological capabilities, optimize valuation models, and collaborate with regulatory bodies and third-party service providers to build a sustainable ecosystem for managing personal loan non-performing assets [41][42].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In H1 2025, the urban investment bond market continued the 2024 policy line, with short - term debt resolution showing results, "exiting the platform" and urban investment transformation accelerating. However, in the long run, urban investment financing channels are restricted, and liquidity pressure in some regions is not fully alleviated. It is expected that implicit debt resolution, "exiting key provinces" and "exiting the platform" will accelerate, and the industrial transformation of urban investment enterprises will further speed up, but attention should be paid to the risks during the transformation process [4] - The overall supply of urban investment bonds tightened in H1 2025, with a year - on - year decline in issuance and net financing. Yields fluctuated downward, and the difference in yields among different credit - rated bonds widened. The net financing of low - level and low - rated issuers remained weak, and the financing pressure on weak - quality urban investment enterprises persisted [3][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section I. National Urban Investment Bond Overall Issuance Overview and Characteristics in H1 and Q2 2025 - **Issuance and Net Financing**: Under the "controlling increment and resolving stock" policy, the issuance policy remained strictly regulated. In H1 2025, 4,339 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2.808708 trillion yuan and a net financing of - 76.36 billion yuan. The total issuance decreased by 11.55% year - on - year, and net financing decreased by 149.16% year - on - year. The net financing turned negative, and the supply tightened. Monthly issuance showed a decline in April and May and a recovery in June [3][6] - **Yield and Cost**: Yields fluctuated downward, and the difference in yields among different credit - rated bonds widened. The issuance cost decreased significantly, and the number of cancelled issuances decreased since April. High - interest urban investment bonds were mainly in regions with negative public opinions and weak economic and fiscal strength. The issuance of ultra - long - term (10 - year and above) urban investment bonds increased year - on - year, mainly in developed provincial capitals, with AAA ratings and mainly medium - term notes and private placement bonds [3][8] - **Issuer Characteristics**: The issuance and net financing of all types of issuers decreased year - on - year. Low - level and low - rated issuers had weak net financing, especially district - level urban investment enterprises whose net financing gap continued to expand. In H1 2025, the net financing of AA - rated enterprises was the weakest, and the net financing of AA+ enterprises turned negative in Q2 [3][15] - **Regional Distribution**: Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang were the top three provinces in terms of issuance amount, but the net financing of Jiangsu and Zhejiang was negative. Key provinces' debt resolution advanced steadily, with a decline in issuance and a narrowing net financing gap, showing internal differentiation. Non - key provinces' net financing turned negative [4][18][19] - **New Issuance**: New issuances were mainly in regions with economic, fiscal, or industrial advantages. Key provinces had fewer new issuances. In H1 2025, 252 new bonds were issued, with a total amount of 203.225 billion yuan, mainly by AAA and AA+ enterprises [4][23] II. Concerns in the Current Urban Investment Bond Market - **Short - term Debt Resolution and Transformation**: In H1 2025, the market continued the 2024 policy line. Short - term debt resolution was effective, and urban investment transformation accelerated. However, fiscal pressure remained, and the effects of policies needed further observation [27][28] - **Differentiated Debt Resolution Progress**: The progress of debt resolution varied across regions. The "exiting the platform" process accelerated, and the non - standard risk and bill overdue events of urban investment enterprises decreased marginally. Key provinces advanced faster in debt resolution, and non - key provinces also made progress but faced challenges in reducing high - interest debts [32][33] - **Marketization Transformation Risks**: The transformation of urban investment enterprises was accelerating, but there was a risk of "false transformation", which could lead to capital recovery risks and drag on regional development. Attention should be paid to the reconstruction of government - enterprise relations and the debt burden caused by "heavy investment, light output" [34][37]

Group 1: Policy and Market Trends - The central government has issued 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity and expand financial support for consumption, focusing on various sectors including culture, tourism, and education[2] - The issuance of consumer ABS products, particularly personal auto loans and personal consumption loans, has been active, with a total issuance of 343.43 billion CNY and 183.41 billion CNY respectively, accounting for 54.94% of the total credit ABS issuance[2] - The overall market saw a decrease in issuance, with 161 asset securitization products issued in May 2025, totaling 1519.26 billion CNY, a 29% decline from the previous period[3] Group 2: Product Performance and Costs - The average issuance cost for policy pledge loan products remains the highest, while other categories do not exceed 3%[3] - Personal auto loan products have the largest issuance scale, while non-performing loans and micro-enterprise loans have lower issuance volumes[9] - The average issuance cost for non-performing loans is still the highest, indicating a relatively high risk premium[14] Group 3: Market Activity and Secondary Trading - In the interbank market, 21 ABS products were issued, totaling 239.05 billion CNY, with a stable issuance scale compared to the previous month[6] - The trading volume for bank and internet consumer loans, accounts receivable, and REITs remains active, with a total transaction volume of 89.90 billion CNY in the interbank market[24] - The transaction volume for exchange ABS decreased to 722.64 billion CNY, reflecting a further decline in trading activity[27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose," with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible, likely in September - October. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools such as relending. There is also a possibility of restarting treasury bond trading [4][32]. - The issuance of interest - rate bonds in the second half of the year may exceed 14 trillion yuan. The supply pressure will be high in the third quarter, and there may be an additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [4][36]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monetary Policy and Liquidity Monitoring - **Implementation of a Package of Monetary Policy Measures with a Continuously "Moderately Loose" Tone**: The monetary policy framework has been continuously adjusted, with the policy - rate attribute of MLF fading out. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has become the core policy rate. The policy tone remains "moderately loose," with RRR cuts and interest rate cuts implemented again, and structural tools continuously exerting their effects. Open - market operations have been marginally relaxed, and more attention has been paid to asset prices [6][7][9]. - **Quarterly Decline in the Central Level of Capital Interest Rates**: In the first quarter, due to the central bank's emphasis on preventing capital idling, the capital market was relatively tight. In the second quarter, after the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts and the marginal easing of the central bank's attitude, the capital interest rates declined. The spread between DR007 and R007 remained at a low level [13]. 3.2 Operating Characteristics of the Interest - Rate Bond Market - **Year - on - Year Increase in the Issuance of All Types of Interest - Rate Bonds**: In the first half of 2025, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds reached 16.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. The issuance of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all increased. Special treasury bonds worth over 1 trillion yuan were issued [16]. - **Downward Trend in the Central Level of Interest - Rate Bond Yields**: The yields of interest - rate bonds generally showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the central level declining quarterly. The operation of the 10 - year treasury bond yield can be divided into three rounds, with different influencing factors in each round [21][22]. - **Widening but Still Low Term Spread and Narrowing Local Bond Spread**: In the second quarter, the 10Y - 1Y spread widened marginally but remained at a historically low level. The local bond spread narrowed, which may be related to the previous decline in treasury bond yields and increased trading and allocation of local bonds by some institutions [28]. 3.3 Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - **Possible RRR Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts and Strengthened Use of Structural Tools**: Due to the uncertainty of external and domestic demand increasing the pressure on economic recovery, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose" in the second half of the year, with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools [32]. - **Issuance of Interest - Rate Bonds May Exceed 14 Trillion Yuan and Declining Yield Central Level**: In the second half of the year, the issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 14 trillion yuan, with high supply pressure in the third quarter and a possible additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The central level of yields will continue to decline, and the core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [36][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Stock Exchange piloted the continuous issuance business of corporate bonds, which enriches the issuance methods of corporate bonds, enhances financing flexibility, and promotes the development of the bond market [3][9]. - In April, the growth rates of major economic indicators slowed down, but the economic recovery still showed some resilience. The central bank net - injected funds, and the capital prices showed mixed trends. The issuance of credit bonds in the primary market heated up, while the trading activity in the secondary market declined, and the yields of most bonds decreased [4][5][6][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspot - On May 22, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice to pilot the continuous issuance of corporate bonds and the expansion of asset - backed securities. The continuous issuance of corporate bonds allows incremental issuance on existing bonds, which has advantages such as improving issuance efficiency and enhancing bond liquidity. Credit rating agencies need to optimize rating methods [3][9][10]. Macroeconomic Data - In April, the growth rates of production, consumption, and investment data slowed down slightly. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.1%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4.0%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. However, equipment purchase investment played a leading role [4][12]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 960 billion yuan through open - market operations. The overnight and 7 - day pledged repurchase rates decreased by 7bp and 5bp respectively, while the other - term pledged repurchase rates increased by 1 - 5bp. The 3 - month Shibor remained unchanged from the previous week, and the 1 - year Shibor increased by 1bp, with the spread widening to 4bp [5][14]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds heated up, with a scale of 241.311 billion yuan, an increase of 108.134 billion yuan from the previous period. The issuance scales of various bond types and industries increased. The average issuance interest rates of bonds of various terms and grades generally increased, with an increase range of 2bp - 44bp [6][17][18]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the trading volume of cash bonds in the secondary market was 8.408721 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 31.2034 billion yuan from the previous period. The yields of interest - rate bonds fluctuated slightly, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 4bp to 1.72%. The yields of credit bonds decreased comprehensively, with a change range of 1 - 7bp. The credit spreads narrowed comprehensively, with a range of 1bp - 9bp, and the rating spreads showed mixed trends [7][31][34]. Regulatory and Market Innovation Dynamics - Multiple regulatory policies were introduced in May 2025, including promoting the construction of a scientific and technological finance system, supporting the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds, and providing policy support such as fee reduction and exemption to encourage innovation in the bond market and support scientific and technological innovation [44][46][47]. Bond Market Credit Risk Events - There were multiple credit risk events in the bond market, including bond principal and interest extensions, defaults, etc., involving companies such as Wuhan Contemporary Technology Investment Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou R & F Properties Co., Ltd. [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report In the critical period of China's economic transformation towards high - quality development and accelerated industrial restructuring, the capital market's support for technological innovation has entered a new stage. The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market in early May and the subsequent deployment at the Lujiazui Forum have further enriched the multi - level capital market system. Although the sci - tech innovation bond market is still in the cultivation stage and faces some structural problems, overseas mature markets have accumulated useful experience in supporting technological innovation financing, which can provide important references for China. In the future, efforts should be made to build a long - term mechanism for the bond market to serve technological innovation, deepen the function of the "Technology Board" in the bond market, and provide strong financial support for China's high - level technological self - reliance and strength [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Policy Evolution - China's sci - tech innovation bond development can be divided into three stages: the pilot exploration period (2015 - 2020), the rapid growth period (2021 - 2024), and the multi - level development period (2025 to date). In the pilot exploration period,双创孵化债 and双创债 were piloted to broaden direct financing channels. In the rapid growth period, products like sci - tech corporate bonds and sci - tech notes were launched, and the market scale expanded rapidly. In the multi - level development period, the "Technology Board" was launched, and a series of measures were taken to improve the market [2][4][5]. Development Status - The sci - tech innovation bond market has expanded rapidly to a trillion - level scale. As of June 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance scale this year is close to 90 billion yuan, and the stock scale is about 230 billion yuan, accounting for over 70% of the total issuance scale of innovative varieties. - The issuance is mainly short - to medium - term, with a further short - term tendency, which has a certain mismatch with long - term capital needs. - There is a cost advantage, with an average issuance cost lower than that of bonds of the same term and type. - The issuer structure is mainly central and local state - owned enterprises, accounting for about 90%, and the issuers' credit ratings are mainly above AA +, with AAA - rated entities issuing the most bonds. - Traditional industries have a relatively high scale, and emerging industries are actively exploring issuance. After the new regulations in May, financial institutions issued a large number of sci - tech innovation bonds. - Regional performance is differentiated, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, and Guangdong having larger issuance scales, and the issuance in the eastern coastal areas is relatively more active [2][10][11]. Contradiction Analysis - The sci - tech innovation bond market is in the cultivation stage and has structural problems. The issuer structure is differentiated, with insufficient support for small and medium - sized enterprises. - Investors have a low risk preference, and their lack of willingness to buy low - quality sci - tech innovation bonds affects the bond structure. - The trading activity is average, and the market liquidity needs to be improved. - The application of credit enhancement tools is insufficient, and the risk - sharing function remains to be realized [2][23][25]. International Experience - Developed countries support technological innovation financing through multiple means, including building a multi - level capital market system, developing high - yield bond and ABS markets, optimizing the stock - bond - loan linkage model, introducing patient capital, and using funds, index products, and derivatives markets to balance risks [28][30][32]. Policy Recommendations - Anchor the direction of technological innovation, combine the enterprise life cycle to open up diversified financing channels, and deepen the construction of the "Technology Board" in the bond market. - Optimize the investment - side ecosystem, introduce diversified funds, and improve market liquidity. - Further improve the risk - sharing and credit - enhancement mechanism to strengthen risk sharing. - Guide the market to objectively view and correctly understand risks, and give full play to the role of credit ratings in risk disclosure [34][36][38].

Economic Overview - Global economic growth momentum is weakening, influenced by trade frictions, monetary policy paths, and geopolitical factors, leading to increased volatility in economic and financial markets[1] - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East exacerbating global economic uncertainty[1] - Emerging markets are experiencing some relief in sovereign credit risk due to a global trend towards lower interest rates[1] Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy, implemented on April 2, is expected to worsen global trade imbalances and hinder economic growth, potentially harming the U.S. economy and increasing "stagflation" risks[2] - The tariffs are likely to raise inflation expectations, which may restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the short term[2] - The tariff impacts could lead to increased uncertainty in global trade and capital markets, posing downward risks to global sovereign credit levels[2] Sovereign Credit Rating Actions - Credit rating downgrades occurred for France, Germany, and Thailand due to political instability and economic challenges, with France's rating adjusted from AAg to AA-g[3][5] - Positive adjustments were made for Turkey, Serbia, Egypt, and Sri Lanka, reflecting improved economic conditions and investor confidence, with Turkey's rating upgraded from BB-g to BBg[3][5] - Belgium's credit outlook was revised to negative due to slowing economic growth and rising fiscal deficits, while the ratings for the UAE and the UK were maintained[3][5] Specific Country Insights - France faces increasing fiscal deficits and debt issues due to political discord, which could elevate borrowing costs[8] - Germany's economic outlook is dimmed by a slight recession influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside declining political stability affecting policy effectiveness[12] - Egypt's credit rating was upgraded due to significant foreign investment inflows and improved fiscal liquidity, stemming from the Ras El-Hekma agreement and IMF loans[19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The traditional sovereign credit rating system dominated by Moody's, S&P, and Fitch has significant limitations, and its lag and political bias are increasingly prominent with the profound changes in the global geopolitical and economic landscape. To build a global, fair, and comprehensive rating system, reforms in three aspects are needed: reconstructing the global governance evaluation system, focusing on the adaptability of the monetary system, and systematically integrating geopolitical and sustainable impacts [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Sovereign Credit Rating Significance and Impact of Three Major Sovereign Rating Actions - Sovereign credit is an important part of the global credit system. Sovereign credit rating measures a country's ability and willingness to repay debts, providing standardized assessments of national credit risks for global investors and influencing a country's financing costs and international capital flows [8]. - Moody's, S&P, and Fitch dominate the global sovereign credit rating market. Their rating methods have evolved with the development of the US capital market and globalization, and major adjustments occurred after the European debt crisis [8][9]. - A downgrade in sovereign rating can cause financial market fluctuations, capital outflows, and increase overseas financing costs. However, after the European debt crisis, the impact of rating actions on a country's capital market and overseas financing has weakened [9]. 3.2 Characteristics and Deficiencies of Three Major Sovereign Credit Rating Methods - The core underlying elements of the three major sovereign rating methods are highly similar, with higher complexity and comprehensiveness. They cover multiple dimensions and use structured calculation methods, and the final ratings may be adjusted by expert judgment [10]. - The evaluation of institutional and governance strength in the three major ratings gives high weight but uses unfair standards, mainly referring to the World Bank's WGI, which may lead to misunderstandings or underestimations of the governance levels of developing countries [11][13][14]. - The three major rating agencies use "international currency" as an evaluation criterion, but the current system fails to fully reflect the decline of traditional international currencies and the rise of the RMB, which is unfavorable to emerging markets and developing economies [17]. 3.3 New Features of the Global Geopolitical and Economic Landscape and Ideas for Building a New Sovereign Rating System 3.3.1 New Features of the Global Geopolitical and Economic Landscape - The overall strength of Western countries and the governance effectiveness of "Western democracy" are declining, while late - developing countries show significant governance performance [19]. - The international monetary system is being reconstructed, with the weakening of traditional currencies and the rise of emerging currencies [19]. - The geopolitical pattern is moving towards multi - polarization, and the influence of emerging economies is increasing [19]. - Sustainable development has become a core issue, and ESG factors will reconstruct the sovereign credit risk evaluation framework [19]. 3.3.2 Ideas for Building a New Sovereign Rating System - Developing countries should build an independent governance evaluation system, promote information sharing, and create a globally comparable institutional governance evaluation system [19][21]. - A multi - dimensional evaluation framework covering the relative change of currency international status, multi - currency reserve structure, and financial security mechanisms should be constructed to improve the forward - looking and applicability of sovereign credit analysis [22][25][26]. - Geopolitical risks should be systematically included in the sovereign rating framework, and the geopolitical radiation ability of the rating subject should be evaluated [27][29][30]. - ESG and other sustainable factors will reconstruct the sovereign credit risk evaluation framework from multiple dimensions and affect future international competition rules [31].

特别评论 （2025 年 4 月） 中诚信国际：构建新国际格局下的主权 信用评级体系,2025 年 4 月 特朗普关税冲击来袭，全球影响几何？ 2025 年 4 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 主权信用研究 | 作者： | | --- | | 中诚信国际 主权与国际评级部 | | 张婷婷 ttzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 王家璐 jlwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 杜凌轩 lxdu@ccxi.com.cn | 大国博弈与关税冲击下，全球主权信用风 险展望负面，2025 年 4 月 新兴市场风险阶段性缓释，特朗普关税冲 击再添变数，2025 年 4 月 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn 关注美国国债收益率波动对美国主权信用 的影响 本期要点 www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 降 息 落 地 融 资 环 境 或 将 改 善，债市收益率中枢存在下 行空间——1 月 17 日央行降 息点评，2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of global trade pattern reshaping and geopolitical evolution, the trade protectionism and tariff policies of the United States have led to increased economic and fiscal pressures in the US, Canada, Mexico, and the EU, and the sovereign credit risks of these regions have generally risen [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 United States - **Economic Risk**: Trade protectionism restrains the US economic outlook, and the inflation expectation caused by tariffs may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the "stagflation" risk. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow to below 2% from 2025 - 2026 [3][5]. - **Policy Uncertainty**: The Trump administration's policies reduce the predictability of the US government's policy path, and political polarization intensifies, affecting policy continuity [3][6]. - **Fiscal Sustainability**: The US government's debt level and cost are rising. The tariff policy's effect on alleviating fiscal pressure is doubtful. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain above 7% in the medium - term, and the government debt - to - GDP ratio may rise above 110%. The debt interest burden is expected to rise to over 12% of fiscal revenue in 2025 [3][8]. - **Impact on Global System**: The US tariff policy weakens the credit of US dollar assets and may accelerate the evolution of the global governance system towards a more multi - polar and regionalized direction [8]. 3.2 Canada - **Economic Downturn**: Canada's high dependence on US exports makes it sensitive to external shocks. Its GDP growth expectation in 2025 is lowered to below 1%, and steel, aluminum, and energy product tariffs directly impact its exports and manufacturing [3][9]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: The combination of economic slowdown and high - interest rates increases the difficulty of debt management. The interest expenditure is expected to account for about 8.5% of federal fiscal revenue in 2025, and the fiscal deficit may expand [9]. 3.3 Mexico - **Economic Recession Pressure**: Tariff shocks increase the risk of economic recession. The IMF has significantly lowered Mexico's 2025 economic growth forecast to - 0.3%. The manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom - bust line, and inflation has risen [3][12]. - **Fiscal Challenges**: The fiscal deficit rate will remain at about 5% in 2025. The financial problems of Pemex and the contraction of exports may exacerbate fiscal sustainability risks [12]. - **Sovereign Credit Reassessment**: Mexico's sovereign credit needs to be re - evaluated, and its future depends on achieving re - balance in institutional stability, foreign trade substitution, and fiscal balance [13]. 3.4 EU - **Economic Challenges**: The eurozone economy faces slow growth and inflation. The GDP growth rate in 2025 is only 0.9%, and 1.2% in 2026. The US tariff policy may further weaken its growth power and competitiveness [16]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: EU countries' fiscal pressure is expanding. Defense spending will increase in the medium - to - long - term, and debt will accumulate further. Italy and France's debt - to - GDP ratios are expected to exceed the 2012 levels [19]. - **External Repayment Pressure**: The EU faces dual pressures of monetary policy and financing costs. Rising bond yields increase the government's refinancing cost, and the limited interest - rate cut space may increase the debt - servicing pressure of high - debt countries [20]. - **Governance Changes**: The deepening of tariff policies and geopolitical games accelerates the transformation of the European governance model. The increase in strategic autonomy and the differentiation of member states' geopolitical choices will lead to different sovereign credit risks [21].