1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report In the critical period of China's economic transformation towards high - quality development and accelerated industrial restructuring, the capital market's support for technological innovation has entered a new stage. The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market in early May and the subsequent deployment at the Lujiazui Forum have further enriched the multi - level capital market system. Although the sci - tech innovation bond market is still in the cultivation stage and faces some structural problems, overseas mature markets have accumulated useful experience in supporting technological innovation financing, which can provide important references for China. In the future, efforts should be made to build a long - term mechanism for the bond market to serve technological innovation, deepen the function of the "Technology Board" in the bond market, and provide strong financial support for China's high - level technological self - reliance and strength [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Policy Evolution - China's sci - tech innovation bond development can be divided into three stages: the pilot exploration period (2015 - 2020), the rapid growth period (2021 - 2024), and the multi - level development period (2025 to date). In the pilot exploration period,双创孵化债 and双创债 were piloted to broaden direct financing channels. In the rapid growth period, products like sci - tech corporate bonds and sci - tech notes were launched, and the market scale expanded rapidly. In the multi - level development period, the "Technology Board" was launched, and a series of measures were taken to improve the market [2][4][5]. Development Status - The sci - tech innovation bond market has expanded rapidly to a trillion - level scale. As of June 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance scale this year is close to 90 billion yuan, and the stock scale is about 230 billion yuan, accounting for over 70% of the total issuance scale of innovative varieties. - The issuance is mainly short - to medium - term, with a further short - term tendency, which has a certain mismatch with long - term capital needs. - There is a cost advantage, with an average issuance cost lower than that of bonds of the same term and type. - The issuer structure is mainly central and local state - owned enterprises, accounting for about 90%, and the issuers' credit ratings are mainly above AA +, with AAA - rated entities issuing the most bonds. - Traditional industries have a relatively high scale, and emerging industries are actively exploring issuance. After the new regulations in May, financial institutions issued a large number of sci - tech innovation bonds. - Regional performance is differentiated, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, and Guangdong having larger issuance scales, and the issuance in the eastern coastal areas is relatively more active [2][10][11]. Contradiction Analysis - The sci - tech innovation bond market is in the cultivation stage and has structural problems. The issuer structure is differentiated, with insufficient support for small and medium - sized enterprises. - Investors have a low risk preference, and their lack of willingness to buy low - quality sci - tech innovation bonds affects the bond structure. - The trading activity is average, and the market liquidity needs to be improved. - The application of credit enhancement tools is insufficient, and the risk - sharing function remains to be realized [2][23][25]. International Experience - Developed countries support technological innovation financing through multiple means, including building a multi - level capital market system, developing high - yield bond and ABS markets, optimizing the stock - bond - loan linkage model, introducing patient capital, and using funds, index products, and derivatives markets to balance risks [28][30][32]. Policy Recommendations - Anchor the direction of technological innovation, combine the enterprise life cycle to open up diversified financing channels, and deepen the construction of the "Technology Board" in the bond market. - Optimize the investment - side ecosystem, introduce diversified funds, and improve market liquidity. - Further improve the risk - sharing and credit - enhancement mechanism to strengthen risk sharing. - Guide the market to objectively view and correctly understand risks, and give full play to the role of credit ratings in risk disclosure [34][36][38].

Economic Overview - Global economic growth momentum is weakening, influenced by trade frictions, monetary policy paths, and geopolitical factors, leading to increased volatility in economic and financial markets[1] - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East exacerbating global economic uncertainty[1] - Emerging markets are experiencing some relief in sovereign credit risk due to a global trend towards lower interest rates[1] Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy, implemented on April 2, is expected to worsen global trade imbalances and hinder economic growth, potentially harming the U.S. economy and increasing "stagflation" risks[2] - The tariffs are likely to raise inflation expectations, which may restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the short term[2] - The tariff impacts could lead to increased uncertainty in global trade and capital markets, posing downward risks to global sovereign credit levels[2] Sovereign Credit Rating Actions - Credit rating downgrades occurred for France, Germany, and Thailand due to political instability and economic challenges, with France's rating adjusted from AAg to AA-g[3][5] - Positive adjustments were made for Turkey, Serbia, Egypt, and Sri Lanka, reflecting improved economic conditions and investor confidence, with Turkey's rating upgraded from BB-g to BBg[3][5] - Belgium's credit outlook was revised to negative due to slowing economic growth and rising fiscal deficits, while the ratings for the UAE and the UK were maintained[3][5] Specific Country Insights - France faces increasing fiscal deficits and debt issues due to political discord, which could elevate borrowing costs[8] - Germany's economic outlook is dimmed by a slight recession influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside declining political stability affecting policy effectiveness[12] - Egypt's credit rating was upgraded due to significant foreign investment inflows and improved fiscal liquidity, stemming from the Ras El-Hekma agreement and IMF loans[19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The traditional sovereign credit rating system dominated by Moody's, S&P, and Fitch has significant limitations, and its lag and political bias are increasingly prominent with the profound changes in the global geopolitical and economic landscape. To build a global, fair, and comprehensive rating system, reforms in three aspects are needed: reconstructing the global governance evaluation system, focusing on the adaptability of the monetary system, and systematically integrating geopolitical and sustainable impacts [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Sovereign Credit Rating Significance and Impact of Three Major Sovereign Rating Actions - Sovereign credit is an important part of the global credit system. Sovereign credit rating measures a country's ability and willingness to repay debts, providing standardized assessments of national credit risks for global investors and influencing a country's financing costs and international capital flows [8]. - Moody's, S&P, and Fitch dominate the global sovereign credit rating market. Their rating methods have evolved with the development of the US capital market and globalization, and major adjustments occurred after the European debt crisis [8][9]. - A downgrade in sovereign rating can cause financial market fluctuations, capital outflows, and increase overseas financing costs. However, after the European debt crisis, the impact of rating actions on a country's capital market and overseas financing has weakened [9]. 3.2 Characteristics and Deficiencies of Three Major Sovereign Credit Rating Methods - The core underlying elements of the three major sovereign rating methods are highly similar, with higher complexity and comprehensiveness. They cover multiple dimensions and use structured calculation methods, and the final ratings may be adjusted by expert judgment [10]. - The evaluation of institutional and governance strength in the three major ratings gives high weight but uses unfair standards, mainly referring to the World Bank's WGI, which may lead to misunderstandings or underestimations of the governance levels of developing countries [11][13][14]. - The three major rating agencies use "international currency" as an evaluation criterion, but the current system fails to fully reflect the decline of traditional international currencies and the rise of the RMB, which is unfavorable to emerging markets and developing economies [17]. 3.3 New Features of the Global Geopolitical and Economic Landscape and Ideas for Building a New Sovereign Rating System 3.3.1 New Features of the Global Geopolitical and Economic Landscape - The overall strength of Western countries and the governance effectiveness of "Western democracy" are declining, while late - developing countries show significant governance performance [19]. - The international monetary system is being reconstructed, with the weakening of traditional currencies and the rise of emerging currencies [19]. - The geopolitical pattern is moving towards multi - polarization, and the influence of emerging economies is increasing [19]. - Sustainable development has become a core issue, and ESG factors will reconstruct the sovereign credit risk evaluation framework [19]. 3.3.2 Ideas for Building a New Sovereign Rating System - Developing countries should build an independent governance evaluation system, promote information sharing, and create a globally comparable institutional governance evaluation system [19][21]. - A multi - dimensional evaluation framework covering the relative change of currency international status, multi - currency reserve structure, and financial security mechanisms should be constructed to improve the forward - looking and applicability of sovereign credit analysis [22][25][26]. - Geopolitical risks should be systematically included in the sovereign rating framework, and the geopolitical radiation ability of the rating subject should be evaluated [27][29][30]. - ESG and other sustainable factors will reconstruct the sovereign credit risk evaluation framework from multiple dimensions and affect future international competition rules [31].

特别评论 （2025 年 4 月） 中诚信国际：构建新国际格局下的主权 信用评级体系,2025 年 4 月 特朗普关税冲击来袭，全球影响几何？ 2025 年 4 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 主权信用研究 | 作者： | | --- | | 中诚信国际 主权与国际评级部 | | 张婷婷 ttzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 王家璐 jlwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 杜凌轩 lxdu@ccxi.com.cn | 大国博弈与关税冲击下，全球主权信用风 险展望负面，2025 年 4 月 新兴市场风险阶段性缓释，特朗普关税冲 击再添变数，2025 年 4 月 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn 关注美国国债收益率波动对美国主权信用 的影响 本期要点 www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 降 息 落 地 融 资 环 境 或 将 改 善，债市收益率中枢存在下 行空间——1 月 17 日央行降 息点评，2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of global trade pattern reshaping and geopolitical evolution, the trade protectionism and tariff policies of the United States have led to increased economic and fiscal pressures in the US, Canada, Mexico, and the EU, and the sovereign credit risks of these regions have generally risen [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 United States - **Economic Risk**: Trade protectionism restrains the US economic outlook, and the inflation expectation caused by tariffs may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the "stagflation" risk. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow to below 2% from 2025 - 2026 [3][5]. - **Policy Uncertainty**: The Trump administration's policies reduce the predictability of the US government's policy path, and political polarization intensifies, affecting policy continuity [3][6]. - **Fiscal Sustainability**: The US government's debt level and cost are rising. The tariff policy's effect on alleviating fiscal pressure is doubtful. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain above 7% in the medium - term, and the government debt - to - GDP ratio may rise above 110%. The debt interest burden is expected to rise to over 12% of fiscal revenue in 2025 [3][8]. - **Impact on Global System**: The US tariff policy weakens the credit of US dollar assets and may accelerate the evolution of the global governance system towards a more multi - polar and regionalized direction [8]. 3.2 Canada - **Economic Downturn**: Canada's high dependence on US exports makes it sensitive to external shocks. Its GDP growth expectation in 2025 is lowered to below 1%, and steel, aluminum, and energy product tariffs directly impact its exports and manufacturing [3][9]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: The combination of economic slowdown and high - interest rates increases the difficulty of debt management. The interest expenditure is expected to account for about 8.5% of federal fiscal revenue in 2025, and the fiscal deficit may expand [9]. 3.3 Mexico - **Economic Recession Pressure**: Tariff shocks increase the risk of economic recession. The IMF has significantly lowered Mexico's 2025 economic growth forecast to - 0.3%. The manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom - bust line, and inflation has risen [3][12]. - **Fiscal Challenges**: The fiscal deficit rate will remain at about 5% in 2025. The financial problems of Pemex and the contraction of exports may exacerbate fiscal sustainability risks [12]. - **Sovereign Credit Reassessment**: Mexico's sovereign credit needs to be re - evaluated, and its future depends on achieving re - balance in institutional stability, foreign trade substitution, and fiscal balance [13]. 3.4 EU - **Economic Challenges**: The eurozone economy faces slow growth and inflation. The GDP growth rate in 2025 is only 0.9%, and 1.2% in 2026. The US tariff policy may further weaken its growth power and competitiveness [16]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: EU countries' fiscal pressure is expanding. Defense spending will increase in the medium - to - long - term, and debt will accumulate further. Italy and France's debt - to - GDP ratios are expected to exceed the 2012 levels [19]. - **External Repayment Pressure**: The EU faces dual pressures of monetary policy and financing costs. Rising bond yields increase the government's refinancing cost, and the limited interest - rate cut space may increase the debt - servicing pressure of high - debt countries [20]. - **Governance Changes**: The deepening of tariff policies and geopolitical games accelerates the transformation of the European governance model. The increase in strategic autonomy and the differentiation of member states' geopolitical choices will lead to different sovereign credit risks [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the sovereign credit environment in Asia has shown a structural differentiation trend, affected by multiple factors such as the spill - over effect of global tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and internal growth momentum changes. The differences in policy responses, industrial structures, and external dependence among Asian countries have led to a continuous divergence in sovereign credit trends [6]. - In East Asia, the credit foundation is relatively solid, but external demand weakness and structural fiscal pressures are emerging, and the overall regional risk is rising. In Southeast Asia, there are opportunities for diversified development, but credit risks show a differentiated trend. In South Asia, the foundation is relatively weak, and the pressure of sovereign credit differentiation is increasing [6]. 3. Summary by Directory East Asia - China: Although the tariff war may be an important variable affecting China's economy in the short term, the rapid development of new drivers and increased policy efforts can help mitigate risks. With sufficient government fiscal space, abundant foreign exchange reserves, and a large net international investment position, China's sovereign credit risk outlook is stable. Under different scenarios of US tariff cancellation, the impact on China's exports and GDP varies. The tariff war may also promote China's R & D investment, industrial upgrading, and regional cooperation [7]. - Japan: Tariff shocks weaken Japan's slow economic recovery, the Japan - US game increases the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes, and fiscal pressure intensifies, hindering Japan's fiscal consolidation. The sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The US tariff policies have affected Japan's auto industry, exports, and domestic demand, and the IMF has lowered Japan's economic growth forecast. The Japan - US trade negotiation also adds to Japan's fiscal pressure [8][10][11]. - South Korea: Due to its high trade dependence on both China and the US, tariff policies will significantly impact South Korea's exports. With long - term political turmoil and "top - level" hollowing - out, there is high uncertainty in domestic demand recovery and policy implementation, and the sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The IMF has lowered South Korea's economic growth forecast. The South Korean government has submitted a supplementary budget, which may increase the national debt and fiscal deficit rate, but the government debt risk is still controllable [16]. Southeast Asia - Overall situation: The regional centripetal force in Southeast Asia is increasing, and there are opportunities for diversified development under the great - power game. The deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN countries can mitigate external environment fluctuations and drive regional economic growth. However, some countries may face negative impacts from economic and geopolitical risk spillovers, and the sovereign credit risk shows a differentiated trend [20][21]. - Positive - potential countries: Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia may have new development opportunities through regional economic and trade cooperation, which will boost their sovereign credit levels. For example, Malaysia's cooperation with China and Singapore can support its economy; Indonesia's large population and downstream integration strategy can drive economic growth; Cambodia's cooperation with China can enhance its geopolitical status and economic growth [22][23][24]. - Negative - potential countries: Thailand and the Philippines face downward pressure on sovereign credit. Thailand's economic structural problems and industrial upgrading lag may lead to a slowdown in economic growth under external shocks. The Philippines' geopolitical risks are rising due to its military cooperation with the US and internal political struggles, which will affect its economic and trade cooperation and fiscal policies [26]. South Asia - Overall situation: South Asia has experienced rapid economic growth, sufficient demographic dividends, and strong reform momentum, with deficit and debt burdens showing a high - level mitigation trend. However, the uncertainty of tariff policies may exacerbate the differentiation of credit risks among South Asian countries [2][28]. - India: India's strong economic growth, diversified economic structure, and strong external payment ability support its sovereign credit. The deepening cooperation with the US may mitigate tariff risks and enhance long - term economic growth potential. However, the India - Pakistan conflict may have a negative impact on India's sovereign credit [29]. - Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka: These countries are constrained by factors such as lagging industrial structure upgrading, high fiscal and debt pressures, and domestic and geopolitical conflicts. Tariff policies may significantly impact their pillar industries and increase social volatility risks. Global monetary policy fluctuations may also pose challenges to their economic recovery and debt repayment. Cooperation with China can help mitigate external risks [2][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central government's fiscal policy remains actively oriented, with increased investment in people's livelihood, consumption, and long - term development. In 2024, special bonds supported over 40,000 projects and contributed over 350 billion yuan as project capital. From January to May 2025, new local bonds worth 1.98 trillion yuan were issued, a 36.6% increase [5]. - Local government debt management continues to be strengthened. In 2024, the number of local financing platforms decreased by more than 7,000. As of June 29, 2025, the issuance of refinancing bonds for replacing existing implicit debt reached 1.8 trillion yuan, completing 89.8% of the quota [5]. - The issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds and urban investment bonds have changed. The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly this week, while the issuance scale of urban investment bonds rose, and the net financing turned positive [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. News Review - **2024 Central Final Account Draft and Review Report**: In 2024, fiscal reform and development achieved new progress. The central final account was generally favorable. In 2025, more active fiscal policies were implemented, and local government debt management was strengthened. The number of financing platforms decreased by over 7,000. Future work will focus on optimizing fiscal policies and debt management [5]. - **Inner Mongolia Optimizes Special Bond Management Mechanism and Sichuan Supports Cultural and Tourism Industry Financing**: Inner Mongolia issued an implementation opinion to optimize special bond management from six aspects. Sichuan introduced a decision to support the cultural and tourism industry, which is beneficial for the financing and transformation of cultural and tourism - related urban investment enterprises [5]. - **26 Urban Investment Enterprises Pre - paid Bond Principal and Interest**: This week, 26 urban investment enterprises pre - paid bond principal and interest, involving 27 bonds with a total scale of 6.146 billion yuan, an increase of 2.06 billion yuan from the previous value [5]. - **Two Urban Investment Bonds Cancelled Issuance**: "25 Guangzhou Metro MTN002" and "25 Huai'an Huai'an PPN002" cancelled issuance, with a planned total issuance scale of 2.1 billion yuan. As of June 29, 60 urban investment bonds had been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 37.448 billion yuan [5]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: This week, 161 local government bonds were issued, with a scale of 641.64 billion yuan, a 145.13% increase from the previous value. The net financing increased by 350.68% to 560.352 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance rate rose by 9.97BP to 1.82%, and the weighted average issuance spread widened by 1.17BP to 11.36BP [5]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: 213 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 136.601 billion yuan, a 5.99% increase from the previous value. The net financing increased by 449.77 billion yuan to 12.344 billion yuan. The average issuance rate was 2.27%, a 2.49BP increase from the previous value, and the issuance spread widened by 2.82BP to 80.71BP [5]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - **Urban Investment Rating Adjustment**: On June 24, Zhongchengxin International upgraded the ratings of Hunan Liuyang Urban and Rural Development Group Co., Ltd. and its related bonds from AA+ to AAA. On June 25, Lianhe Credit Rating upgraded the rating of Hunan Yongzhou Xiaoxiangyuan Urban Development Group Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA [5]. - **Urban Investment Credit Events and Regulatory Penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [5]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The spot trading volume of local government bonds was 546.611 billion yuan, a 0.40% increase from the previous value. The maturity yields generally increased, with an average increase of 2.29BP [5]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 377.672 billion yuan, a 0.33% decrease from the previous value. The maturity yields generally increased, with an average increase of 1.78BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened [5]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: Under the broad - based definition, 22 urban investment entities' 23 bonds had 27 abnormal trades, with a decrease in the number of entities, bonds, and abnormal trading times [5]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises This week, 33 urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, suspected disciplinary violations, and business scope changes [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" is expected to promote the release of residents' consumption potential and the upgrading of service supply, inject new impetus into the credit bond market, and optimize the industry and product structure of credit bonds [13]. - The release of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sub - credit - rated Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index Series is of positive significance for the high - quality development of the bond market, but its actual impact depends on the differentiation of the domestic credit rating system and the liquidity of different segments [16]. - The official manufacturing PMI continued to improve in June, but industrial enterprise profit growth turned negative year - on - year from January to May. The equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent supporting role, and private enterprises showed strong resilience [5][19]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Six - department policy on promoting corporate bond issuance in the consumption field**: The "Opinions" aims to improve the long - term mechanism for expanding consumption. It supports service consumption and technology - related enterprises in issuing bonds and promotes the development of retail loan ABS. It is expected to optimize the credit bond structure and increase market activity, but also requires attention to the credit risks of relevant issuers [10][11][13]. - **Release of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Credit - stratified Convertible Bond Index**: The index series provides a diversified performance benchmark and investment target, which helps to improve market transparency and pricing efficiency, and promotes the development of passive investment products. However, its effectiveness depends on the credit rating system and market liquidity [14][15][16]. Macroeconomic Data - **Manufacturing PMI**: In June, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with continued improvement but still below the expansion range. Large and medium - sized enterprises' PMIs increased, while small enterprises' PMI decreased [5][18]. - **Industrial enterprise profits**: From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and private enterprises showed strong resilience [19]. Money Market - The central bank net - injected 13672 billion yuan through open - market operations last week. It carried out a 3000 - billion - yuan 6 - month MLF operation on June 25, which was the fourth consecutive month of over - renewal of MLF since March. The 7 - day and 14 - day repurchase rates increased, while other term repurchase rates decreased slightly. The spread between 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor narrowed [23]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - **Issuance scale**: The issuance of credit bonds heated up last week, with a total issuance scale of 4133.93 billion yuan, an increase of 797.13 billion yuan from the previous period. The infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance increased, while the industrial bond issuance decreased slightly [7][27]. - **Industry distribution**: The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net outflow of financing, while in the industrial bond sector, the number of industries with net inflows and outflows was similar. The power production and supply and transportation industries had large net inflows, while the electronics and light manufacturing industries had large net outflows [27][30]. - **Issuance cost**: The average issuance interest rates of most term - grade bonds decreased by 4 - 22bp [7][27][35]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - **Trading activity**: The secondary - market bond trading volume was 97543.2 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 963.06 billion yuan, indicating a decline in trading activity [37]. - **Yield trends**: Treasury and policy - bank bond yields showed a long - short differentiation, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield rising 1bp to 1.65%. Most credit bond yields decreased, credit spreads mostly widened, and rating spreads mostly narrowed [37][42][44].

Group 1: Report Core View - The implementation of policies allowing special bonds for land reserve acquisition has led to an acceleration of land acquisition, helping the real - estate industry continue its trend of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The policy can optimize resource allocation, relieve corporate financial pressure, and stabilize market expectations. Additionally, the industry shows signs of a slow recovery in multiple aspects, but still faces challenges [2][3][7] Group 2: Policy and Land Acquisition - Since the policy of allowing special bonds for land reserve acquisition was introduced, as of June 22, 2025, over 4,200 land parcel acquisition plans have been announced, with a capital scale of nearly 477.7 billion yuan. Only 36% of the announced scale of special bonds has been issued, and subsequent issuance is expected to speed up. The planned land acquisition is mainly residential land, and most of the land to be acquired belongs to local state - owned enterprises [2][3][5] - In 2025, the "Government Work Report" proposed to allocate 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, 50 billion yuan more than the previous year, with land acquisition being one of the key uses. Guangdong was the first province to issue 30.4 billion yuan of special bonds for land acquisition in February 2024. As of June 24, 2025, multiple regions have issued special bonds for land acquisition, with a total issuance scale of about 170 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Market Conditions in May 2025 Demand Side - In May, the month - on - month decline of commercial residential prices continued, and the number of cities with rising prices decreased. However, the year - on - year decline in prices has been narrowing for 7 consecutive months. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing in May was 4.56% and 7.14% respectively, but the month - on - month growth was 10.34% and 13.14%. The overall performance in the first 5 months was stable. In early June, the performance of different - tier cities was differentiated [9] Supply Side - In May, the total transaction price and premium rate of land in a hundred cities decreased, with significant differentiation among cities. The new construction area remained at a low level, and the cumulative decline in the completed area slightly increased. The unsold area of commercial housing has decreased for 3 consecutive months but is still at a high level. The real - estate development investment scale from January to May decreased by 10.70% year - on - year [10] - In the second - hand housing market, the year - on - year decline in the price index further narrowed, and the month - on - month decline slightly increased. The transaction volume of second - hand housing in 30 key cities decreased by 10% month - on - month and increased slightly by 4% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. High - energy - level cities showed strong resilience, but the market was differentiated [10] Bond Market - In May, the domestic bond financing amount decreased month - on - month, and the net financing was still in a net outflow state, with all issuers being central and state - owned enterprises. There was no overseas bond issuance by real - estate enterprises in May, but Xincheng Development successfully issued 300 million US dollars of senior notes in June. From June 27 to the end of July, the domestic bond maturity scale of real - estate enterprises is 35.012 billion yuan, and there are some key enterprises with relatively large maturity scales [11] - In the secondary market, the average daily trading volume of domestic bonds of real - estate enterprises decreased slightly in May, and the trading enthusiasm weakened. The prices of bonds of Chinese real - estate enterprises in the overseas market have not fluctuated significantly since May [12] Group 4: Challenges in Policy Implementation - The special bond land acquisition work faces challenges, including insufficient funds to cover project debts, uncertain future land transfer revenues, and a relatively single subject structure of the land to be acquired [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - pressure situation of implicit debt supervision remains unchanged, emphasizing the prevention of "risks from risk disposal". The audit report reveals over a hundred billion yuan of irregular use of special bonds and the persistence of new implicit debt since March 2023, highlighting the need for continuous improvement of debt management mechanisms [5][7][9]. - Guangxi will spare no effort to support Liuzhou in debt resolution, aiming to balance debt reduction and high - quality development [5][10]. Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Irregular Use of Special Bonds and New Implicit Debt**: The audit report shows that irregularities such as illegal borrowing, false reporting of expenditures, and idle misappropriation of special bonds still exist, involving over a thousand billion yuan. New implicit debt has also emerged since March 2023, along with irregularities like irregular fund collection by urban investment companies and false debt resolution. This indicates the need to improve the regular supervision system for special bonds and address deep - seated institutional issues in debt management [5][7][9]. - **Guangxi's Support for Liuzhou's Debt Resolution**: On June 25, Guangxi held a meeting to support Liuzhou in debt resolution, emphasizing the balance between debt reduction and high - quality development. Resolving Liuzhou's debt is a top priority for the region [10]. - **Early Redemption of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises**: Twenty urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 21 bonds with a total scale of 40.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.51 billion yuan from the previous value. Most of these enterprises are from the eastern region, and the majority of their credit ratings are AA [12]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: This week, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds increased, while the issuance interest rate decreased and the spread narrowed. As of now, the issuance progress of new special bonds this year is less than 40%, and the local debt replacement progress has reached 87%. A total of 60 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 261.753 billion yuan, and the net financing increased by 167.346 billion yuan to 124.334 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate dropped by 9.85BP to 1.72%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed by 3.37BP to 10.18BP [14]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The issuance scale of urban investment bonds increased this week, but the net financing turned negative. The issuance interest rate rose, and the spread widened. A total of 197 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 128.875 billion yuan, an increase of 1.79% from the previous value. The net financing decreased by 445.82 billion yuan to - 32.634 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate was 2.25%, up 1.74BP from the previous value, and the issuance spread was 77.89BP, widening by 4.95BP [17]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose [24]. - **Urban Investment Rating Adjustment**: On June 18, 2025, Dagong Global downgraded the credit rating of Guizhou Guiyang Economic and Technological Development Zone Guihe Investment Development Co., Ltd. from AA to AA - and its bond rating from AA to AA - [24]. - **Credit Events and Regulatory Penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [24]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The trading volume of local government bonds decreased by 12.75% to 544.437 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally declined, with an average decline of 4.78BP [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 15.88% to 378.924 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally declined, with an average decline of 5.33BP. The spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened, while that of 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed [25]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: Under the broad - based criteria, 24 urban investment entities had 28 abnormal bond trades, with an increase in the number of entities, bonds, and trading times [25]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - Forty - seven urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, suspected disciplinary violations, changes in the use of raised funds, and external guarantees [28].