Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji
Search documents
企业资产支持证券产品报告(2025年11月):发行规模环比显著增长,融资成本略有回升,二级市场活跃度有所提升
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-30 07:58
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint In November 2025, the issuance scale of enterprise asset - backed securities increased significantly month - on - month, the financing cost slightly rebounded, and the secondary market activity improved. A total of 136 enterprise asset - backed securities were issued, with a total issuance scale of 141.683 billion yuan. Compared with the previous month, the number of issuances increased by 31, and the issuance scale increased by 49.00%. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the number of issuances remained the same, and the issuance scale increased slightly by 1.62%. The interest rate median of one - year - around AAAsf - rated securities rose by about 2BP month - on - month and decreased by about 42BP year - on - year [4][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Issuance Situation - **Overall Issuance**: In November 2025, 136 enterprise asset - backed securities were issued, with a total scale of 141.683 billion yuan. The number of issuances increased by 31 month - on - month, and the scale increased by 49.00%. Year - on - year, the number remained the same, and the scale increased by 1.62%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued 102 products worth 115.213 billion yuan (81.32% of the total), and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued 34 products worth 26.47 billion yuan (18.68% of the total) [4][5]. - **Original Equity Holders**: The top five original equity holders in terms of issuance scale were China National Foreign Trade Trust Co., Ltd. (8.2 billion yuan, 5.79%), Huaxin International Trust Co., Ltd. (6.5 billion yuan, 4.59%), China Kangfu International Leasing Co., Ltd. (6.333 billion yuan, 4.47%), China Railway Capital Co., Ltd. (5.866 billion yuan, 4.14%), and Taicang Port GCL Power Generation Co., Ltd. (5.46 billion yuan, 3.85%). The total issuance scale of the top five was 32.359 billion yuan (22.84%), and that of the top ten was 55.093 billion yuan (38.88%) [6]. - **Managers**: The top five managers in terms of new management scale were CITIC Construction Investment Securities Co., Ltd. (15.46%), CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. (11.45%), Shanghai Guotai Haitong Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. (9.72%), Huatai Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd. (7.96%), and Ping An Securities Co., Ltd. (7.11%). The total new management scale of the top five was 73.244 billion yuan (51.70%), and that of the top ten was 104.39 billion yuan (73.68%) [8][9]. - **Underlying Asset Categories**: The underlying asset types of the issued securities included class REITs, accounts receivable, enterprise financial leasing, micro - loans, and specific non - financial claims. Class REITs had 9 issuances, accounting for 14.66% of the scale; accounts receivable had 19 issuances, accounting for 13.60%; and enterprise financial leasing had 20 issuances, accounting for 11.11% [11]. - **Product Scale Distribution**: The highest single - product issuance scale was 5.46 billion yuan, and the lowest was 0.75 billion yuan. The products with a single - issuance scale in the (5, 10] billion yuan range had the largest number of issuances (52) and the largest scale (28.69% of the total) [13]. - **Term Distribution**: The shortest term was 0.69 years, and the longest was 44.35 years. Products with a term in the (1, 3] - year range had the largest number of issuances (68) and the largest scale (43.17% of the total) [14][15]. - **Level Distribution**: According to the issuance scale of each level of securities, AAAsf - rated securities accounted for 95.38%, AA + sf - rated securities accounted for 4.02%, and other levels accounted for relatively small proportions [15][18]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The lowest issuance interest rate of one - year - around AAAsf - rated securities in November 2025 was 1.72%, and the highest was 3.15%. The interest rate center was approximately between 1.80% and 2.00%, with the median rising by about 2BP month - on - month and decreasing by about 42BP year - on - year [19]. 3.2 Filing Situation In November 2025, 140 enterprise asset - backed securities were filed with the Asset Management Association of China, with a total scale of 105.283 billion yuan [4][23]. 3.3 Secondary Market Transaction In November 2025, enterprise asset - backed securities had 4,131 transactions in the exchange market, with a total transaction amount of 91.726 billion yuan. The number of transactions increased by 668 month - on - month and 737 year - on - year, and the transaction amount increased by 19.29% month - on - month and 21.71% year - on - year. The Shanghai Stock Exchange had 3,259 transactions worth 73.582 billion yuan (80.22% of the total), and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 872 transactions worth 18.144 billion yuan (19.78% of the total). The more active underlying asset types in the secondary market were class REITs, accounts receivable, personal consumer finance, CMBS, and supply chains [4][24]. 3.4 December 2025 Maturity Analysis As of the end of November 2025, 220 outstanding enterprise asset - backed securities were due for repayment in December 2025, with a total scale of 57.924 billion yuan. The main underlying assets of the due securities were accounts receivable, supply chains, personal consumer finance, and specific non - financial claims. From the perspective of original equity holders, China Railway Capital Co., Ltd. had 13 due securities with a repayment scale of 13.669 billion yuan (23.60%), China Railway Construction Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. had 6 due securities with a repayment scale of 6.784 billion yuan (11.71%), and Shenghe (Shenzhen) Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. had 10 due securities with a repayment scale of 3.233 billion yuan (5.58%) [26].
2025年12月房地产市场跟踪:行业下行压力加大,中央经济工作会议定调“着力稳定房地产市场”
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-30 06:26
Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the central government's approach to the real estate market, emphasizing "stabilizing the market" rather than merely pushing for recovery [2][4][13] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing increased downward pressure, with the supply-demand relationship shifting from total shortage to basic balance, highlighting structural supply deficiencies [2][4] - The central economic work conference has outlined a policy framework focusing on supply-demand coordination, inventory reduction, and promoting quality housing [3][5] - The report notes that as of November 2025, the nationwide unsold commercial housing area stands at 753 million square meters, indicating a high inventory level that requires ongoing efforts for reduction [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate market is under pressure, with new housing transaction volumes continuing to decline, while "good houses" are becoming the mainstay of market support [1] - The central government's focus has shifted to stabilizing the market, with an emphasis on addressing structural supply issues and enhancing the quality of housing [2][4] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference has introduced measures to control land supply, encourage the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing, and promote the construction of quality housing [3][4] - The report highlights that local governments are expected to implement various policies, including purchase subsidies and tax reductions, to stimulate inventory reduction [4][5] Demand Dynamics - The demand side is seeing improvements, with the central government advocating for the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the housing market, particularly in core cities [5] - Recent policy changes in Beijing have aimed to optimize housing purchase restrictions, supporting families with multiple children and adjusting credit policies [5][8] Market Performance - In November 2025, the average price of new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a slight month-on-month increase, while the overall sales volume and value continued to decline year-on-year [5][8] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with significant declines noted in major cities, although transaction volumes are showing signs of recovery [8][9]
中诚信国际生猪养殖行业特别评论
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-30 06:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the supply in China's pig market has been generally loose, leading to a downward trend in pig prices and pushing the pig - grain ratio into the warning zone. This has weakened the profitability and cash - generating ability of breeding enterprises. Although the debt scale has continued to decline, the financial leverage of breeding enterprises remains high, and they may face short - term debt repayment pressure under the pressure of product prices. In the short term, the pig supply surplus situation is difficult to reverse quickly, and pig prices may remain volatile at a low - profit level. In 2026, the pressure of oversupply is expected to gradually ease, and pig prices may recover but still oscillate at a low - profit level [3][6][39]. - Large - scale breeding is the core trend in the pig - breeding industry. In 2025, the cost and profit gap between large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farmers narrowed, but leading enterprises still increased their market share. Enterprises with stronger cost - control capabilities will have higher competitiveness and risk - resistance [6][23][39]. Summary According to the Directory Main Concerns - **Supply - side Factors** - High - level operation of breeding capacity and improved breeding efficiency have led to an overall loose supply in the pig market since 2025. The national inventory of breeding sows has remained at around 40 million, and the PSY index has increased, further amplifying the positive impact on pig slaughter volume. From January to September 2025, the national pig inventory increased year - on - year by about 2%, and as of the end of September, it reached 436.8 million [7][8]. - Secondary fattening was an important disturbing factor in the first half of 2025. In April, the number of pigs sold to the secondary fattening channel by monitored breeding enterprises reached 59,200 per week, accounting for 33.54% of the total. After May, policy restrictions and market factors led to the concentrated slaughter of second - fattened pigs, exacerbating the supply surplus. In the second half of the year, the impact of secondary fattening decreased [10][11]. - **Demand - side Factors** - Market consumption is relatively weak. The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises has been declining, and as of November 28, it dropped to 85.60%. The frozen - meat inventory may be released around the Spring Festival in 2026, and the demand increase during the peak season may not offset the supply increase [16]. - **Cost - side Factors** - From January to October 2025, the total output of industrial feed increased by 7.72% year - on - year to 279.133 million tons, and the sales of pig feed increased for 10 consecutive months. In the first half of the year, feed prices rose due to factors such as the tariff on US soybeans and the fluctuation of Brazilian soybean arrivals. In the second half of the year, feed prices declined with the new grain listing and increased soybean imports. Overall, the average feed price from January to November decreased by 4.47% year - on - year [18]. - **Pig Price Factors** - In 2025, pig prices generally declined, with the highest price of 16.54 yuan/kg in mid - January. The pig - grain ratio entered the warning zone in August. The government launched multiple rounds of central frozen - pork purchases. In the short term, pig prices may remain volatile at a low level, and in 2026, they may recover but still operate at a low - profit level [20]. Industry Development Trends - Large - scale breeding is the core trend. The proportion of large - scale pig farms (with an annual slaughter of over 500 pigs) increased from less than 40% in 2015 to over 70% in 2024. In 2025, the cost and profit gap between large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farmers narrowed, but leading enterprises still increased their market share. For example, the market share of the top three enterprises increased from 16.84% in 2024 to 19.73% in the first three quarters of 2025 [23][24]. Financial Situation of Breeding Enterprises - **Profitability** - In the first three quarters of 2025, 11 sample enterprises achieved a total operating income of 344.635 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.06%. Both the self - breeding and self - fattening model and the model of purchasing piglets for fattening were in a loss state. As of November, the loss per head was 147.99 yuan and 248.82 yuan respectively. Leading enterprises had better cost - control results, and the gap in the average period expense ratio between other enterprises and the top three enterprises widened to about 4 percentage points [29]. - **Capital Expenditure and Asset Status** - Since 2025, breeding enterprises have been cautious about capital expenditure. As of the end of September, the total fixed assets of sample enterprises decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter, and the total construction in progress decreased by 1.32% compared with the end of the previous year. The productive biological assets decreased by 9.19%, and the inventory decreased by 4.54% [34]. - **Capital Structure and Debt Situation** - By the end of September 2025, the average total debt of sample enterprises decreased by 10.55% year - on - year and 3.20% quarter - on - quarter. The average asset - liability ratio and total capitalization ratio decreased by 6.25 and 8.96 percentage points respectively. However, the short - term debt of leading enterprises was significantly higher than that of other sample enterprises, and they may face short - term debt repayment pressure [35]. - **Operating Cash Flow and Solvency** - As the pig price declined in the second quarter of 2025, the operating cash flow of most sample enterprises decreased year - on - year. The liquidity ratio of most sample enterprises improved, but the average liquidity ratio of the top three enterprises was lower than that of other sample enterprises. The ability of monetary funds to cover short - term debt weakened, but the ability of operating cash flow to cover total debt increased [37].
2025 年 11 月图说债市月报:信用债供给小幅回升,政策与情绪扰动下收益率有所上行-20251229
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-29 09:41
Key Insights - The report indicates a slight increase in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 1.53 trillion yuan in November, up by 217.79 billion yuan from the previous month, and a net financing increase of 170.24 billion yuan to 387.49 billion yuan [4][39] - The overall bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern due to a combination of economic fundamentals, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors, with a focus on maintaining a neutral duration strategy and enhancing portfolio flexibility [4][9][12] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of pressure, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% and retail sales growth decreasing by 1.6 percentage points to 1.3% [7][9] Market Review - In November, the rolling default rate in the bond market was 0.20%, with one new default from the real estate sector, specifically from Aoyuan Group, which faced liquidity issues [16][18] - The manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.2, indicating a still-contractionary environment, while the central bank's liquidity operations net withdrew 375.9 billion yuan [25][30] - The secondary market saw a general increase in bond yields, with 10-year government bond yields rising by 4 basis points to 1.84% [8][39] Credit Risk and Issuance - The report highlights that credit risk remains manageable, with a total of 118 high-yield bonds issued in November, amounting to 52.84 billion yuan, and a significant increase in trading volume [5][39] - The issuance costs for credit bonds generally decreased, with rates falling between 4 to 22 basis points across various types [39][42] - The report notes that the credit spread for medium-term notes widened, particularly for 1-3 year maturities, while 5-year maturities saw a narrowing of spreads [24][39] Regional and Sectoral Insights - The report indicates that Beijing had the highest credit bond issuance at 492.4 billion yuan, with Guangdong and Shanghai also showing significant issuance [44][46] - The infrastructure financing sector saw a total issuance of 347.6 billion yuan, while the financial sector had the highest net inflow of 142.4 billion yuan [43][46] - The average issuance rates varied by industry, with the information technology sector experiencing a notable increase of 93 basis points, while the cultural industry saw a decrease of 69 basis points [43][46]
近期债市调整如何看?
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-29 09:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment in the bond market is likely to be more of a short - term phenomenon, mainly influenced by policy expectations, sentiment, and supply - demand factors in the short term. In the long run, the bond market logic will return to the fundamentals and the capital situation. - In 2026, the core operating range of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be between 1.7% - 1.9%, and it may maintain low - level fluctuations. Credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but the contraction amplitude may be limited [5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Interest - rate bonds**: Since November, the yield curve has become steeper, with the adjustment pressure concentrated on the long - end. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields have fluctuated upward, with the 30 - year yield rising more significantly. The 1 - year yield has been relatively stable. The amplitude of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds since November has been 6bp, 8bp, and 14bp respectively, and the key term spreads have expanded [5][8]. - **Credit bonds**: The adjustment of credit bonds has been relatively lagging, and credit spreads have slightly widened passively. The credit bond yields first fluctuated upward, with medium - and high - grade yields rising more, and then all grades of yields declined to varying degrees. Credit bonds have recovered faster. As of December 22, the AA - grade bond yield has decreased by 9bp compared to early November, and the interest rates of higher - grade 3 - year medium - and short - term notes are similar to those at the beginning of November. Most credit spreads have widened passively, and they are still at historically low levels [5][11]. Adjustment Reasons - **Weak sentiment**: Before important policy meetings, the market entered an observation period, and there was uncertainty about policies such as next year's fiscal strength. The central bank's insufficient liquidity injection and the real - estate enterprise credit event also disturbed market sentiment [5][14]. - **Cautious institutional behavior**: Near the end of the year, under external constraints such as assessment pressure and regulatory policies, institutions' redemption and profit - taking intentions increased, and the willingness to buy was insufficient. The expectation of public - fund fee reform also led to bond - fund position adjustment and selling [5][16]. - **Supply - demand imbalance**: The supply of long - term bonds has increased while the demand has decreased. The supply of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds has increased, especially the supply of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, while the ability of banks, insurance companies, and other institutions to absorb them is limited, and the demand from funds and other trading players has declined [5][18]. - **Insensitive to economic data**: The market has been insensitive to weak economic data, and the fundamentals have not dominated the recent interest - rate trend. The economic data has continued to show weak recovery, but the market has anticipated it in advance, and the inflation rebound has also suppressed sentiment [5][20]. Future Outlook - **Interest - rate bonds**: In 2026, the macro - policy will maintain a supportive tone of "loose money + loose finance". The weak economic recovery and abundant liquidity environment do not support a significant upward trend in bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.7% - 1.9%, but it may fluctuate due to challenges in demand and institutional behavior. Uncertain factors such as continued weakening of the fundamentals, intensified geopolitical evolution, and the implementation of fund - fee reform need to be vigilant [22][23][24]. - **Credit bonds**: Under the moderately loose monetary policy and the "asset shortage" situation, credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but considering that they are already at historically low levels, the contraction amplitude may be limited [25].
2026年趋势与策略:“十五五”开局下的信用债图景:2026年趋势与策略
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-29 09:01
Group 1 - The credit bond market is expected to experience moderate growth in issuance, with a projected net financing scale of 1.8 to 2.3 trillion yuan and total issuance between 16.9 to 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 3% to 6% [4] - The issuance of industrial bonds has been robust, with a total issuance of 8.13 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.52%, while the net financing scale reached 2.05 trillion yuan, up 52.24% [16] - The issuance of innovative bond varieties has significantly expanded, with a total issuance of 30.24 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, an increase of 122.1 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by the establishment of the "Technology Board" [22][23] Group 2 - The secondary market for credit bonds has shown steady trading activity, with total bond transactions reaching 384.89 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, a 0.91% increase from the previous year [33] - Credit spreads have narrowed to historical lows, with the spreads for various grades of bonds generally decreasing by 3 to 74 basis points compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a tightening of credit risk premiums [42] - The yield on credit bonds has exhibited an "M-shaped" fluctuation pattern, with yields remaining at relatively low levels, particularly for AAA-rated short-term notes, which are below the 25th percentile since 2014 [36][40]
地方政府债与城投行业监测周报:审计署公布地方债务领域问题整改情况,5000亿元结存限额使用进度或超九成-20251229
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-29 08:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the local government debt and urban investment industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing high-pressure regulatory environment regarding hidden debt and the need to prevent "risks from risk disposal" [3][6] - It highlights the significant progress in the use of the 500 billion yuan balance limit, with over 90% utilization [4][17] - The report notes that the audit report revealed issues in the local government debt sector, including illegal borrowing and misreporting of expenditures, amounting to 132.6 billion yuan [7][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Local Government Debt and Urban Investment Debt Trading Situation - The issuance of local government bonds decreased, with a total issuance of 24 bonds amounting to 40.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline [17] - The net financing amount also fell to 28.074 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of new bonds reaching 53,316.52 billion yuan, exceeding the annual limit by 2.53% [17] - Urban investment bonds saw a decrease in issuance scale but an increase in net financing, with 124 bonds issued totaling 78.427 billion yuan [21] Audit Report Insights - The audit report indicated that since March 2023, new hidden debt behaviors have continued, totaling 5.909 billion yuan, with significant amounts used for repaying principal and interest [8][9] - The report outlines that 9 provinces have rectified issues involving 64.75 billion yuan, with specific measures taken to improve the management of special bonds [6][7] Measures Taken by Local Governments - Gansu Province has implemented measures to mitigate debt risks, including adjusting repayment plans and reducing interest rates, saving 140 million yuan in financial costs [10][11] - A total of 7 urban investment enterprises have declared themselves as market-oriented entities or exited the financing platform, with a focus on infrastructure investment [12] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the average issuance rate for urban investment bonds has increased to 2.30%, with a widening of the issuance spread [21][22] - The trading volume for local government bonds was 450.066 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 9.35% from the previous period [28]
国际宏观资讯双周报-20251223
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-23 09:15
Economic Insights - The IMF warns Kenya and Ethiopia about the risks of converting SGR loans from USD to RMB, highlighting potential currency risks despite cost savings[7] - Japan's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, due to rising inflation pressures[10] - Australia's inflation rose to 3.8% in October, prompting the central bank to maintain interest rates at 3.6%[11] - Iran's economy has been in recession for 20 consecutive months, with a PMI of 46.6 indicating ongoing economic contraction[12][13] Fiscal Developments - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% to 5% export tax on coal starting in 2026, aiming to generate approximately 20 trillion IDR (about 1.2 billion USD) in additional revenue[17] - South Africa's economic outlook is improving, with GDP growth expectations raised for the second half of 2025, following fiscal reforms initiated in 2021[18][19] Political and Social Issues - Eight countries, including Turkey and Egypt, oppose Israel's unilateral opening of the Rafah crossing, emphasizing the need for a two-way opening to support Palestinian residents[21] - Ongoing conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has resulted in significant casualties, with over 51,200 people displaced[22][23] Credit Ratings - Fitch upgraded Ivory Coast's sovereign credit rating from BB- to BB, maintaining a stable outlook due to political stability and strong economic growth projections of 6.4% to 6.6% from 2025 to 2027[40]
地方政府债与城投行业监测周报2025年第46期:中央强调化解融资平台经营性债务风险,吉林官宣已达到“退平台”标准-20251222
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-22 08:30
1. Core Views - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized addressing local fiscal difficulties, with a focus on the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level. It was proposed to maintain a deficit rate above 4% in 2026, with a general fiscal expenditure scale of about 15 trillion yuan. The management of local government special bonds was optimized, and the operational debts of financing platforms became the focus of debt resolution [6][9][11]. - Jilin Province announced that it had reached the standard to exit the list of key provinces for local debt. Liaoning Province aimed to build a closed - loop debt management system to promote effective debt resolution [15][16]. - This week, 8 urban investment companies declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities or exited the financing platform list. 25 urban investment companies prepaid bond principal and interest, and 1 urban investment bond was cancelled for issuance [18][22][23]. 2. News Comment Central Economic Work Conference - First, it was the first time to mention "addressing local fiscal difficulties" and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level. The contradiction between revenue reduction and expenditure increase was prominent, especially at the grass - roots level. It was necessary to increase transfer payments from the central government, optimize the transfer payment structure, and enhance local independent financial resources [9]. - Second, the positive fiscal policy was continued, with a focus on both total force and structural optimization. It was recommended that the deficit rate in 2026 be maintained above 4%, the general fiscal expenditure scale be about 15 trillion yuan, and the total scale of new government debt be increased to 14.8 - 15.5 trillion yuan. The structure of fiscal expenditure should be optimized [10][11]. - Third, the management of the use of local government special bonds was optimized, and the efficiency and quality of the "negative list" management were improved. Attention should be paid to the quality and comprehensive benefits of investment [12]. - Fourth, the operational debts of financing platforms became the focus of debt resolution. It was necessary to classify and handle debts, optimize debt restructuring and replacement methods, and establish a risk - sharing mechanism [13][14]. Jilin and Liaoning's Debt Management - Jilin Province announced reaching the standard to exit the list of key provinces for local debt, aiming to build a long - term government debt management mechanism and promote state - owned enterprise reform [15]. - Liaoning Province aimed to build a closed - loop debt management system, accelerate the resolution of implicit debts and the reform and transformation of financing platforms, and strictly prevent the increase of implicit debts [16]. Urban Investment Companies' "Exit from Platform" - This week, 8 urban investment companies declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities or exited the financing platform list. Since October 2023, a total of 963 companies have made such declarations, mainly in eastern provinces, with AA + as the main credit rating [18]. Prepayment and Cancellation of Urban Investment Bonds - 25 urban investment companies prepaid bond principal and interest this week, involving 26 bonds with a total scale of 31.57 billion yuan. One urban investment bond, "25 Chuanfa MTN003 (Hybrid Science and Technology Innovation Bond)", was cancelled for issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 1 billion yuan [22][23]. 3. Bond Issuance Local Government Bonds - This week, the issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds increased. The special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts in 2025 have been fully issued. As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new bonds reached 5296.432 billion yuan, completing 101.85% of the annual quota. The weighted average issuance term was 12.52 years, and the weighted average issuance rate was 2.08% [24][25][26]. Urban Investment Bonds - This week, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased, while the net financing scale increased. The issuance rate and spread both increased. The overall issuance rate was 2.28%, and the issuance spread was 77.64BP. The issuance was mainly private placement bonds, with a 5 - year term as the main one, and the issuer's main credit rating was AA + [35]. 4. Bond Trading Fund Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 4.7 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly increased [39]. Bond Trading - The trading scale of local government bonds decreased by 2.40% to 496.486 billion yuan, and the trading scale of urban investment bonds increased by 16.79% to 316.22 billion yuan. The credit spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed [41]. Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds - This week, 12 urban investment entities had 12 abnormal bond transactions. The number of entities, bonds, and abnormal transactions increased compared with last week [41]. 5. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Companies - This week, 76 urban investment companies announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, and cumulative new borrowings [44].
图说资产证券化产品:REITs支持政策加码激活民间投资,ABS一二市场均有所降温
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-18 09:32
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The State Council supports private investment projects to issue infrastructure REITs to broaden the financing channels for private enterprises. The "Measures" put forward 13 measures to stimulate private investment vitality and development, focusing on direct financing through equity and REITs [2][3]. - The average issuance costs of policy - backed mortgage loans and REIT - like products are relatively high, while those of personal auto loans are relatively low [5]. - In October 2025, the issuance of ABS decreased due to holiday factors, and the secondary stratification ratio of non - performing loan products remained high [6]. - The trading activity of ABS products in the secondary market declined, with significant differences in trading activity among different products [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 REITs Policy Support - The "Measures" encourage private capital to participate in infrastructure projects and support the listing of high - tech enterprises and the issuance of infrastructure REITs by private investment projects to expand financing sources [2][3]. - The NDRC will promote the expansion of infrastructure REITs to new fields. Currently, private investment projects in infrastructure REITs have less than 20% in quantity and scale, indicating significant development potential [4]. 3.2 Market Issuance Situation - **Overall Market**: In October 2025, 164 asset - securitized products were issued, with a total scale of 181.083 billion yuan, a 33% decrease from the previous period. Non - performing loan products had a high secondary stratification ratio [6]. - **Bank - to - Bank Market**: 10 products were issued, with a scale of 34.343 billion yuan. The average issuance cost of non - performing loan products was the highest, while that of personal auto loans and micro - enterprise loans was relatively low [10][11]. - **Trading Association ABN**: 49 products were issued, with a scale of 51.653 billion yuan, a 23% decrease from the previous month. The coupon rates of priority products with disclosed credit ratings ranged from 1.65% to 3.60% [17]. - **Exchange ABS**: 105 products were issued, with a scale of 95.087 billion yuan, a 42% decrease from the previous month. The credit ratings of priority products included AAAsf and AA + sf, and the coupon rates ranged from 1.65% to 3.95% [18]. 3.3 Secondary Market Situation - **Bank - to - Bank Market**: The trading volume was 1.1445 billion yuan, with a significant decline in trading activity. Personal auto loan products had the highest trading volume [23]. - **Trading Association ABN**: The trading volume was 4.6139 billion yuan, a further decrease. Small - scale loans and enterprise accounts receivable were relatively actively traded [26]. - **Exchange ABS**: The trading volume was 8.1 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous month. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges had trading volumes of 6.3879 billion yuan and 1.7121 billion yuan respectively [27].