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2024年度信贷ABS产品到期与清算观察
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-22 05:56
Group 1: Product Expiration Overview - In 2024, a total of 260 credit ABS products will expire, with NPL and RMBS products accounting for 89 and 78 products respectively, together representing nearly two-thirds of all expiring products[4] - The top five initiating institutions for expiring products include China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Minsheng Bank, with a focus on RMBS and NPL products[5] Group 2: Product Duration Analysis - Among the 260 expiring products, 237 have had their subordinate securities redeemed, while 23 products, all NPLs, have not been redeemed[9] - RMBS products have an average duration of 5.47 years, with the longest at 9.10 years, while other products like Auto ABS and consumer loan ABS have durations mainly concentrated between 1-2 years[11] Group 3: Product Liquidation Methods - Out of the 260 products, 226 have been liquidated, leaving 34 products unliquidated, which includes 12 normal loan ABS and 22 NPL products[12] - The predominant liquidation methods are warehouse repurchase and original distribution, accounting for over 98% of liquidated products[12] Group 4: Subordinate Securities Placement and Yield Analysis - Of the 260 products, 127 had subordinate securities placed externally, representing nearly 50% of the total[14] - The average yield for subordinate securities in normal loan ABS is significantly lower, typically in the 6-7% range, while NPL products have an average yield of 24.65%[17]
保险资产管理业创新型产品季度观察与展望:2025年一季度,保债计划大幅下降,中保登ABS迅速扩容,资产证券化业务或将弥补整体下行趋势
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-20 08:23
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the insurance asset management industry Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry increased, while the number of registrations continued to decline. The registration scale grew by 9.32% year-on-year to 185.596 billion yuan, primarily due to the growth in asset-backed plans and equity investment plans [7][8] - The report highlights a significant decline in debt investment plans, with both the number and scale dropping sharply. The debt investment plans accounted for 72.94% of the total registrations, but this figure represents a year-on-year decrease of 13.33% [8][11] - The report emphasizes the increasing focus on urban renewal projects and the supportive policies from the government, which may present investment opportunities for insurance asset management firms [7][37] Summary by Sections Product Operation Analysis - In Q1 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry increased, driven by growth in asset-backed plans and equity investment plans. The number of registrations decreased by 17 to 85 [8] - Debt investment plans saw a significant decline, with a registration scale of 99.775 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 27.19% [11] - The report indicates that the focus of debt investment plans is shifting towards the East China region, with Anhui province leading in investment allocation [13][16] Institutional Operation Analysis - In Q1 2025, Huatai Asset Management led in the registration scale of debt investment plans, while Minsheng Tonghui Asset Management ranked first in the number of asset-backed plan registrations [31][33] - The report notes that the insurance asset management industry is experiencing a head effect, with some institutions demonstrating strong product operation capabilities [44] Industry Policy Review - The report discusses the government's emphasis on urban renewal and the introduction of policies to attract social capital for infrastructure projects, which may benefit insurance asset management firms [37][38] - It highlights the ongoing support for green finance initiatives, encouraging the issuance of green bonds and asset-backed securities [43][44] Observations and Outlook - The report anticipates that the innovative product business in the insurance asset management industry will face challenges in 2025, but it remains a crucial financing tool. The focus will likely shift towards structured product issuance [44][45] - The report suggests that insurance asset management firms should pay attention to urban renewal projects and green finance opportunities as potential areas for investment [44][45]
保险资产管理行业研究:保险资产管理业创新型产品季度观察与展望:2025年一季度,保债计划大幅下降,中保登ABS迅速扩容,资产证券化业务或将弥补整体下行趋势
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-20 06:50
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the insurance asset management industry Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry increased, while the number of registrations continued to decline. The registration scale grew by 9.32% year-on-year to 185.596 billion yuan, primarily due to the growth in asset-backed plans and equity investment plans [7][8] - The report highlights a significant decline in debt investment plans, with both the number and scale dropping sharply. The focus of investment has shifted towards the East China region, with the transportation sector remaining the largest investment target [9][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and city investment policies, which are expected to create investment opportunities for insurance asset management in urban renewal projects and industry transformation [7][37] - Green finance policies continue to support qualified green industry enterprises in issuing green bonds and asset-backed securities, indicating a growing space for green asset securitization projects [7][43] Summary by Sections Product Operation Analysis - In Q1 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry increased, driven by growth in asset-backed plans and equity plans. The number of registrations decreased, with debt investment plans still accounting for over 70% of the total but on a downward trend [8][29] - The report notes that the debt investment plan registration scale and number have significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 27.19% and 29.55% respectively in Q1 2025 [11][12] - The focus of debt investment plans has shifted towards the East China region, with Anhui province leading in investment share [13][16] Institutional Operation Analysis - In Q1 2025, Huatai Asset maintained a leading position in the registration scale of debt investment plans, while Minsheng Tonghui Asset led in project registration numbers for asset-backed plans [31][33] - The report indicates that the insurance asset management industry is experiencing a head effect, with some institutions showing strong product operation capabilities and capturing a significant market share [44] Industry Policy Review - The report discusses the recent urban renewal and city investment policies aimed at attracting social capital and promoting collaboration between government and private investments [37][38] - It highlights the regulatory support for green finance, encouraging the issuance of green bonds and asset-backed securities, which aligns with the growing focus on sustainable investments [43][44] Observations and Outlook - The report anticipates that the innovative product business in the insurance asset management industry will face pressure in 2025, but it remains a crucial financing tool. The focus will likely be on structured product issuance and green finance opportunities [44][45] - The report suggests that while the supply of innovative products may decrease, they will continue to be an important investment category for insurance funds, particularly in the context of low interest rates and ongoing debt resolution policies [44][45]
资产支持票据产品报告(2025年4月):资产支持票据发行规模持续提升,其中资产支持商业票据约占一半,个人消费金融类资产表现活跃
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-19 14:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The asset - backed note issuance scale has continuously increased, with asset - backed commercial paper accounting for about half, and personal consumer finance - related assets are active [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Issuance Situation - In April 2025, 58 asset - backed note products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 59.188 billion yuan. Compared with the previous month, the number of issuances increased by 9, and the issuance scale grew by 33.71%. Compared with the same period last year, the number of issuances increased by 11, and the issuance scale grew by 55.01%. Only 4 were publicly issued, and the rest were privately placed [4][5]. - The top five initiators in terms of issuance scale were China Orient Asset Management Co., Ltd. (8.945 billion yuan, 15.11%), Beijing Jingdong Century Trading Co., Ltd. (8.725 billion yuan, 14.74%), China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. (6.043 billion yuan, 10.21%), SDIC Taikang Trust Co., Ltd. (5.964 billion yuan, 10.08%), and Huaneng Guicheng Trust Co., Ltd. (4.4 billion yuan, 7.43%). The total issuance scale of the top ten initiators was 48.094 billion yuan, accounting for 81.26% [5]. - The underlying asset types included personal consumer finance, specific non - financial claims, accounts receivable, micro - loans, and financial leasing. Personal consumer finance products accounted for 47.96% of the scale [7]. - The highest single - product issuance scale was 6.043 billion yuan, and the lowest was 1.0 billion yuan. The number and scale of products with a single - issuance scale between (0, 10] billion yuan were the largest, with 52 products issued, accounting for 66.13% of the scale [9]. - The shortest product term was 0.25 years, and the longest was 5.02 years. Products with a term between (0, 1] years had the largest issuance scale, accounting for 49.24%. Products with a term between (1, 2] years had the largest number of issuances, with 26 products issued [10]. - According to the issuance scale of notes at each level, AAAsf - rated notes accounted for 91.44% [11]. - The lowest issuance interest rate of one - year - around AAAsf - rated notes was 1.94%, the highest was 3.60%, and the interest rate center was around 2.02% [13]. - In April 2025, 24 ABCP products were issued, with a total issuance scale of 29.368 billion yuan, accounting for 49.62% of the ABN issuance scale. Specific non - financial claim ABCP accounted for 51.03% of the ABCP issuance scale, personal consumer finance ABCP accounted for 27.54%, and accounts receivable ABCP accounted for 11.60% [17]. 3.2 Secondary Market Transaction Situation - In April 2025, there were 563 secondary - market transactions of asset - backed notes, with a transaction amount of 54.198 billion yuan. The transaction amount decreased by 10.76% month - on - month, and the number of transactions decreased by 20.59% month - on - month. The transaction amount increased by 46.82% year - on - year, and the number of transactions increased by 35.66% year - on - year [4][18]. - The more active underlying asset types in the secondary - market transactions were personal consumer finance, specific non - financial claims, class REITs, accounts receivable, and supply chains, with transaction - amount proportions of 26.43%, 18.42%, 16.75%, 13.13%, and 5.23% respectively [18].
地方政府债与城投行业监测周报2025年第16期:政策加码下城投科创债有望持续扩容,江苏泰州推动存量定向融资清零-20250519
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-19 08:35
监测周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日—2025 年 5 月 11 日 总第 342 期 2025 年第 16 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 政策加码下城投科创债有望持续扩容 江苏泰州推动存量定向融资清零 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 16 期 本期要点 要闻点评 作者: 中诚信国际 研究院 闫彦明 ymyan01@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 15 期】政治局会议提出将适时推出增量 政策,广东深化投融资体制改革和城投转 型,2025-04-29 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 14 期】财政部隐债问责通报案例首涉 PPP 项目,河南发布国企境外债管理办法 意见稿,2025-04-24 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 13 期】拟成立专项基金加大收储力度, 地方债存量规模突破 50 万亿,2025- ...
2025年4月城投债市场运行分析:融资审核趋严城投债发行、净融资均降,科创债等创新品种发行升温
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-16 06:26
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The main policy tone is still "controlling new debts and resolving existing ones." The issuance and net financing of urban investment bonds have decreased, while the issuance of innovative varieties such as science and technology innovation bonds has increased [4][54][56]. - In the short - term, although the Sino - US tariff game has eased, the bond market will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to allocate high - quality platform targets in strong regions, moderately extend the duration, and also pay attention to strong urban investment in key debt - resolving regions and new entities formed during the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment [6][9][49]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. April 2025 Urban Investment Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Issuance scale and net financing**: The issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased by 10.34% month - on - month to 554.27 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 75.279 billion yuan for two consecutive months. The approval rates of the exchange and the inter - bank market both decreased month - on - month. 21 provinces had net outflows, and the net outflow scale of economic powerhouses increased significantly [7][10][13]. - **Innovative varieties**: 22 innovative urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 16.78 billion yuan. The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds increased significantly, with 12 bonds issued, totaling 9.02 billion yuan [20]. - **Issuance term**: The weighted average issuance term was 2.76 years, a decrease of 0.87 years month - on - month. The proportion of borrowing new to repay old remained above 90%, and 14 provinces reached 100%. Among the 10 key provinces, 9 had a 100% borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio [23]. - **Issuance interest rate and spread**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.43%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points month - on - month; the weighted average issuance spread was 91.93BP, a narrowing of 5.43BP month - on - month [26]. - **Overseas bonds**: The issuance scale of overseas urban investment bonds increased by 25.44% month - on - month to 41.177 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate rose to 5.57% [31]. - **Yield and credit spread**: The yield of urban investment bonds decreased overall. The credit spreads of key provinces mostly narrowed, while those of non - key provinces mostly widened [35]. 2. Credit Analysis - One urban investment enterprise had its credit rating upgraded. In April 2025, Orient Golden Credit upgraded the rating of Shanghai Northern Enterprise (Group) Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA [43]. - The number, scale, and frequency of abnormal transactions of urban investment bonds decreased. Guizhou had the largest abnormal transaction scale, and "20 Boshui 01" had the largest deviation [43][44]. 3. Maturity and Early Redemption - The maturity and put - option scale of urban investment bonds this year exceeded 3 trillion yuan. 129 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance, with a scale of 24.963 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.55% month - on - month [46]. 4. Strategy - Allocate high - quality platform targets in strong regions and moderately extend the duration. For medium - and short - term durations, focus on strong urban investment in regions with significant debt - resolution progress. Also, pay attention to new entities formed during industrial transformation and integration, but set an appropriate duration [6][9][49]. 5. Recent Policy and Hot Event Review - The policy emphasizes resolving existing debts and preventing new ones. The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement has exceeded 60%. The supervision of new hidden debts remains strict, and the support for science and technology innovation bonds has increased [6][50]. - At the local level, many places are accelerating the integration and transformation of state - owned enterprises and standardizing financing management [51].
图说地方政府债券
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-14 07:29
图说地方政府债券 ——2025年4月 4月地方政府债券(以下简称"地方债")发行及净融资规模环比均下降、但 同比均大幅上升,新增债发行2534亿元、同比增长97%,新增专项债发行2301 亿元、同比增长1.6倍,其中265亿元为特殊新增债;再融资债发行4399亿元, 其中特殊再融资债2617亿元、均用于置换存量隐性债务。1-4月,新增专项债 累计发行1.19万亿元,完成限额进度27.1%,快于去年同期、但仍低于近三年 平均水平;用于置换隐性债务的特殊再融资专项债发行1.59万亿元、今年2万 亿置换额度发行进度约八成。后续来看,在4月25日中央政治局会议"加快地 方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"的要求下,新增专项债的发行 使用有望加快,推动及时发挥专项债稳基建、稳投资、扩内需的重要作用。 一、一级市场:发行及净融资额同比大幅上升,新增债发行进度快于去年同期、但仍低于近三年平 均水平,置换存量隐性债务的特殊再融资债累计发行1.59万亿、完成全年额度约八成 4月地方债发行6932.91亿元、同比增长101.59%,净融资5280.89亿元、同比增长8.6倍 1-4月地方债累计发行3.53万亿元、同比增长8 ...
4月出口实现超预期增长,对美出口占比大幅下滑
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-14 07:13
Group 1: Trade Data Overview - In April 2025, China's total import and export value reached $535.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%[3] - Exports amounted to $315.69 billion, growing by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports were $219.51 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.2%[3] - The trade surplus for April was $368.76 billion, marking a significant increase of 33.61% compared to the previous year[3] Group 2: Export Performance - The export growth was significantly supported by tariff exemptions and transshipment trade, with a notable increase in demand for electronic products[5] - Exports to the U.S. saw a dramatic decline of 21%, with the share of U.S. exports in total exports dropping by 2.3 percentage points to 10.5%[5] - Exports to ASEAN, India, and Africa showed strong growth, with India’s exports increasing by 21.7% and Africa's by 25.3%[6] Group 3: Import Trends - April's import value decreased by 0.2%, with a notable decline in agricultural imports by 17.2%, particularly soybeans which fell by 38.4%[11] - Imports from the U.S. dropped by 13.8%, reflecting the impact of tariff measures[11] - High-tech and electromechanical products provided some support to imports, contributing positively to the overall import figures[11] Group 4: Economic Implications - The report emphasizes the need for China to leverage policy opportunities to boost domestic demand while seeking new export growth points[12] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies from the U.S. are significantly influencing China's export dynamics, necessitating a strategic response[12]
债市“科技板”启航,五方面速览科创债增量政策
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-09 07:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Recent intensive implementation of a package of support measures for scientific and technological innovation and supporting arrangements for the "technology board" reflects enhanced policy consistency, improved operability, and expanded scope of benefits, with a clear support orientation. The more detailed mechanism arrangements for each link of science - and - technology innovation bonds (STIBs) are conducive to driving more financial resources into the scientific and technological innovation field, stimulating innovation power and market vitality, and helping to cultivate new productive forces and build a modern industrial system [2] Summary by Directory I. Enrich the product system of STIBs, optimize the issuance process, and accelerate the construction of a multi - tiered bond market - The new round of incremental policies around the issuance end takes multiple measures in aspects such as the scope of issuers, issuance terms, information disclosure, and use of raised funds, promoting the improvement of the adaptability of bond services and the further play of the financing function of the bond market [3] - The "Announcement" focuses on supporting three types of institutions, including financial institutions, technology - based enterprises, and equity investment institutions, to issue STIBs. The trading association further clarifies the specific requirements for technology - based enterprises and equity investment institutions, and the exchanges also newly support eligible financial institutions and equity investment institutions to issue STIBs, expanding the scope of issuers [3][4] - The policies give issuers certain options in terms of issuance methods, financing terms, and bond terms, and optimize the issuance management process and registration and issuance mechanism. Both the inter - bank and exchange markets apply the "green channel" for STIB financing review, simplifying the requirements for application materials and improving the review speed [4] - The information disclosure rules for STIBs are simplified. The "Announcement" allows issuers to agree with investors to exempt relevant disclosure information, and the trading association further clarifies the specific arrangements. Both markets also allow eligible issuers to apply for an extension of the validity period of financial reports [4] - The policies balance flexibility and standardization in the use of raised funds. For technology - based enterprises, the use of funds is flexibly arranged, and at the same time, a supervision account for raised funds is required to ensure the compliance and effectiveness of fund use [4] - The STIBs have achieved rapid development since their launch, with a current stock scale of about 1.85 trillion yuan. Nearly 500 market institutions plan to issue over 300 billion yuan of STIBs. After the implementation of incremental measures, more entities may enter the STIB market, and the market structure is expected to be more diversified [5] II. Improve the investment mechanism in multiple ways, strengthen the coordination between investment and financing, and optimize the ecological environment of the STIB market - Improving the investment mechanism of STIBs helps enhance the trading activity and price discovery function of STIBs, improve the pricing efficiency and investment confidence of the market, and reduce the issuance and financing costs of enterprises [6] - The policies encourage intermediary institutions to participate in market - making of STIBs and establish an evaluation system. The exchanges have introduced optimization measures to support the pledge financing of STIBs, enhancing the liquidity support for STIBs [6][7] - Long - term funds are included in the scope of investment subjects for STIBs, which helps meet the demand of science - and - technology innovation enterprises for long - term capital, promotes the formation of a diversified investor pattern, and enhances the stability and risk - resistance ability of the STIB market [7] - The creation of STIB indices and related index - linked products is encouraged, which provides convenient risk - dispersion and long - term holding tools for institutional investors, promotes the development of passive investment strategies, and improves the issuance attractiveness and fund - raising ability of STIBs [7] III. Improve the diversified risk - dispersion and sharing mechanism, strengthen the role of credit enhancement, and boost market confidence - The "Announcement" emphasizes improving the risk - dispersion and sharing mechanism for STIBs. On one hand, it increases the support of policy - based tools and encourages market - based credit enhancement. Financial institutions and professional credit enhancement institutions are supported to carry out relevant businesses to support the issuance and trading of STIBs [9] - On the other hand, it promotes the role of regional credit enhancement mechanisms. Local governments are guided to set up risk compensation funds or introduce other preferential policies to provide support such as interest subsidies and government - backed financing guarantees for STIBs [9] - The exchanges encourage issuers to innovate credit enhancement methods, such as setting up pledge guarantees for expected returns and intellectual property rights in the bond issuance stage, exploring the use of intangible assets as collateral for bonds [9] IV. Innovate the credit rating system and construct a rating method suitable for technology - based enterprises and science - and - technology innovation businesses - Traditional rating ideas centered on assets and scale are difficult to meet the development needs of science - and - technology innovation enterprises. The "Announcement" proposes that credit rating agencies should design specialized rating methods and symbols according to the characteristics of relevant institutions and businesses, improving the forward - looking and differentiation of ratings [11][12] - Since 2024, rating agencies have served more than 1,500 STIBs and covered more than 460 STIB issuers. Multiple rating agencies have disclosed rating methods and models for science - and - technology innovation enterprises, but there are few practical cases of using specialized rating methods [12] - Under the policy guidance, credit rating agencies can focus on the characteristics of science - and - technology innovation enterprises, construct targeted rating frameworks, optimize the distribution of individual independent credit levels, and use new technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence to provide "rating +" services [12] V. Improve regulatory services, strengthen the whole - process management of STIBs, and reduce fees to strengthen policy support - The "Announcement" deploys the whole - process management and policy support for STIBs from the perspective of regulatory services, aiming to ensure the use of raised funds as intended and promote financial institutions to strengthen continuous support for innovative entities [13] - The bond market self - regulatory organizations are required to improve the supporting rules for STIBs, provide full - process services for issuance and trading, and reduce relevant fees. Specific measures have been introduced, such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange waiving the issuance subscription fees and trading fees for STIBs, and other exchanges and institutions also following suit [13][14] - The trading association has introduced measures to strengthen information disclosure requirements during the duration of bonds and improve post - issuance tracking and monitoring, enhancing the effectiveness of regulatory services and risk - prevention levels for STIBs [14]
中美关税博弈专题系列(三):贸易博弈下财政发力的空间、方向及着力点
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-08 11:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the escalating tariff war between China and the US, macro - policies need to increase counter - cyclical adjustment. Fiscal measures, especially central government initiatives, are crucial for expanding domestic demand. Different scenarios of tariff games require corresponding incremental fiscal funds, with short - term goals focusing on stabilizing economic growth and social expectations, and long - term goals on building a unified domestic market and enhancing international discourse power. A series of fiscal tools and measures should be used to address challenges and improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tariff Game Scenarios and Fiscal Space - **Impact of Tariff War**: The continuous escalation of the tariff war since April has affected China's exports and economic recovery, and increased financial market uncertainty. China's economy showed a bottom - stabilizing trend in Q1 2025 with a 5.4% GDP year - on - year growth, but still faced issues like insufficient demand and weak expectations [9]. - **Fiscal Space in Different Scenarios**: In the optimistic scenario, the US cancels all reciprocal tariffs, with a 0.3 - percentage - point GDP drag, and no incremental fiscal funds may be needed. In the neutral scenario, with a 34% reciprocal tariff and some export support from "re - export", the GDP growth may be dragged by 0.9 percentage points, requiring 0.6 - 1.2 trillion yuan of incremental fiscal funds. In the pessimistic scenario, a high - tariff above 145% may cause China's exports to the US to stagnate, dragging the GDP growth by over 2 percentage points and requiring over 1.7 trillion yuan of incremental fiscal funds [12]. 3.2 Fiscal Response Strategies under Tariff Games - **Short - term Goals**: Focus on stabilizing economic growth and social expectations, promoting domestic demand, stabilizing employment, and benefiting people's livelihoods. Provide support to export - oriented regions, industries, and enterprises, and introduce "emergency" measures. Combine policy tools, speed up the issuance and use of government bonds, and introduce new tools for consumption promotion and foreign trade stabilization [4][17]. - **Long - term Goals**: Build a unified domestic market, stimulate market vitality, improve total factor productivity through structural adjustment and institutional reform, and enhance international discourse power. Foster a complete domestic demand system, cultivate new productive forces, and promote fiscal system reform [4][18]. 3.3 Current Fiscal Tools for Tariff Games - **Treasury Bonds**: Given the large breakthrough in the budget deficit rate, it is recommended to issue special treasury bonds in late October. The funds can be used for "two new" policies, support export - oriented enterprises, and supplement the capital of state - owned banks if necessary [6][21]. - **Local Bonds**: Increase the issuance of land reserve special bonds, accelerate the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing, and consider establishing real - estate acquisition funds. If necessary, increase the special bond quota and use it to supplement the capital of small and medium - sized banks [26][27]. - **Quasi - fiscal Tools**: Restart policy - based financial tools and increase the issuance of central enterprise "stable - growth and investment - expansion special bonds" to support key projects and promote economic transformation and upgrading [28]. - **Tax and Social Security Policies**: Introduce targeted tax incentives and temporary social security fee exemptions to strengthen people's livelihood protection [32]. - **Stabilizing Foreign Trade and Supporting Science and Technology**: Establish a foreign - trade stabilization fund and continue to use government investment funds to support science and technology innovation [33]. - **Capital Market Support**: Promote the entry of long - term and patient capital such as insurance and social security funds into the market through the "commanding - rod" role of the Ministry of Finance's performance evaluation [34]. 3.4 Improving the Efficiency of Fiscal Funds under Long - term Great - Power Games - **Utilize Existing Tools**: Speed up the expenditure of government bonds. In Q1 2025, the government bond issuance scale was 6.14 trillion yuan, and the issuance scale may increase in Q2 and Q3. Fiscal expenditure should be accelerated to use existing tools effectively [38]. - **Optimize Expenditure Structure**: Compress non - urgent expenditures, focus on key areas, and shift from "investment in things" to "investment in people". Assist in risk resolution in key areas such as the real - estate market and local debts [43][45][46]. - **Strengthen Fund Supervision**: Establish a full - chain and full - cycle management system, including improving the government's balance sheet, project reserve, evaluation, and direct - access mechanisms [46]. - **Improve Local Bond Management**: Implement negative - list management and "self - review and self - issuance" mechanisms for local bonds, especially special bonds [49]. - **Enhance Policy Coordination**: Strengthen expectation management and coordinate fiscal policies with monetary and industrial policies [50]. - **Deepen Fiscal System Reform**: Rationalize the relationship between the central and local governments, study new tax systems, promote provincial - level and below fiscal system reform, and deepen zero - based budget reform [53].