Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Social protection interventions are crucial for achieving the World Bank Group's Gender Strategy (2024-2030), promoting women's access to jobs, assets, financial inclusion, and entrepreneurship, while also addressing gender-based violence (GBV) and harmful social norms [3][6][14] - Despite progress, nearly half of the global population lacks adequate social protection coverage, with women and girls disproportionately affected due to structural gender inequalities [3][7][47] - Recommendations include expanding gender-smart programs, leveraging "cash-plus" approaches, enhancing women's access to finance, and engaging the private sector in gender-responsive practices [3][14][47] Summary by Sections The Role of Social Protection in Accelerating Gender Equality - Social protection is recognized as a tool to address poverty, vulnerability, and inequality, particularly in advancing gender equality and empowering women and girls [6][14] - The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated gender inequalities, with significant impacts on women's economic participation and increased rates of GBV [12][39] Boosting Women and Girls' Human Capital and Addressing GBV - Social assistance is effective in reducing gender inequalities, enhancing women's economic empowerment, and improving access to services [17][19] - Cash-plus programs, which combine cash transfers with complementary measures, have shown positive impacts on gender inequalities and GBV [17][22] Expanding and Enabling Economic Opportunities for Women - Economic inclusion programs are essential for boosting the income and assets of the poorest individuals, with a strong focus on women's empowerment [26][27] - Programs targeting women's economic inclusion have demonstrated effectiveness in improving various dimensions of empowerment, even in fragile contexts [27][28] Building Resilience through Adaptive Social Protection - Adaptive social protection is vital for building resilience against crises, with a focus on women and girls in fragile, conflict, and violence (FCV) settings [39][40] - The report highlights the need for targeted interventions to address gender-based inequalities and barriers in FCV environments [39][43] Challenges to Scaling Up Social Protection's Gender Equality Impacts - Persistent gender gaps in social protection coverage necessitate expanded investments in gender-responsive social protection [47][49] - Structural inequalities, such as lower labor force participation rates and higher informal employment among women, contribute to these gaps [47][49]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or countries analyzed. Core Insights - Economic growth in Albania is projected to remain robust at 3.3 percent in 2024, driven by private consumption, tourism, and construction [6][11] - Armenia's economy expanded by 6.5 percent in H1 2024, with growth expected to moderate to around 4.5 percent in the medium term [13][21] - Azerbaijan's growth rose to 4.3 percent in H1 2024, supported by the non-hydrocarbon sector, but is expected to hover around 2.5 percent in the medium term due to declining oil production [24][30] Summary by Sections Albania - The GDP for Albania in 2023 was reported at 23.0 billion USD, with a GDP per capita of 8,300.4 USD [6] - The international poverty rate stands at 11.3 percent, while the upper middle-income poverty rate is at 34.2 percent [6] - Key challenges include a declining population, poor labor quality, and rising fiscal pressures [7] - The employment rate reached 66.7 percent by the end of 2023, with a poverty rate decline to 21.7 percent [8][10] - Inflation averaged around 2.7 percent in Q1 2024, with a fiscal surplus reported as of July 2024 [10][11] Armenia - Armenia's GDP in 2023 was 24.1 billion USD, with a GDP per capita of 8,053.0 USD [13] - The international poverty rate is not specified, but the upper middle-income poverty rate is at 51.3 percent [13] - The economy has shown resilience with a 10.5 percent average annual growth rate in 2022-2023, but growth is expected to slow due to reduced net exports [14] - The unemployment rate rose to 15.5 percent in Q1 2024, influenced by refugee inflows [15] - Inflation fell to 0.3 percent deflation during January-July 2024, prompting a reduction in the policy rate [15][20] Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan's GDP in 2023 was not specified, but the GDP per capita was reported at 7,134.4 USD [24] - The economy's reliance on hydrocarbons poses a vulnerability, with growth driven by the non-hydrocarbon sector [25] - The fiscal balance recorded a surplus of 10.3 percent of GDP in H1 2024, although hydrocarbon revenues fell [26] - Inflation decreased to 1.1 percent in June 2024, with a cut in the policy rate to support economic stability [26][30] - The trade surplus narrowed to 11.5 percent of GDP in H1 2024, with exports declining due to lower oil prices [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Western Balkans region, but it indicates a moderate acceleration in economic growth, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook for investment opportunities [26]. Core Insights - Economic growth in the Western Balkans is projected to accelerate to 3.3 percent in 2024, up from 2.6 percent in 2023, driven by stronger domestic demand and expansionary fiscal policies [26][27]. - The region's labor market is improving, with employment reaching a historical high of 48.5 percent in June 2024, although challenges such as labor shortages and skills mismatches persist [26][27]. - The current account deficit is expected to widen to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2024, influenced by sluggish growth in key trading partners and a decline in net services export inflows [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview - The Western Balkans economies are navigating a complex environment, with growth expected to rely more on domestic demand than foreign demand in 2024 [26]. - Economic growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies, rising credit availability, and easing price pressures, leading to increased consumption and investment [26][27]. 2. Growth Acceleration - Growth in 2024 is forecasted to be 3.8 percent for Serbia, 3.4 percent for Montenegro, and 2.8 percent for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Kosovo also projected to grow at 3.8 percent [26][30]. - North Macedonia is expected to struggle with growth projected at 1.8 percent, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [26]. 3. Employment Trends - The labor market saw the creation of 114,000 jobs between mid-2023 and mid-2024, with Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina leading in job gains [26][27]. - Despite improvements, Kosovo's employment rate remains low at 37.1 percent, highlighting regional disparities [26]. 4. Poverty Reduction - Poverty reduction continues but at a slower pace, with an estimated annual decline of about 1 percentage point [26][27]. 5. Fiscal Policies - The average fiscal deficit for the WB6 is expected to increase to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2024, with Serbia maintaining its deficit level while Montenegro experiences the highest increase [27][28]. - Public debt is projected to rise slightly as a share of GDP, driven by increased spending pressures and capital investments [27]. 6. Inflation Trends - Inflation rates have decreased, with regional averages showing a decline from 4.4 percent to 3.2 percent by July 2024, although some countries still report higher rates [27][28]. 7. Financial Stability - Credit growth rebounded in 2024, reaching 9.4 percent in June, with Albania and Kosovo showing significant increases [27][28]. 8. External Sector Dynamics - The current account deficit is expected to widen, with Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia projected to experience the most significant increases [28][29]. 9. Growth Outlook - The growth outlook indicates a shift towards consumption and investment as key drivers, with export demand remaining muted [28][29]. 10. Spotlight on Migration - Migration remains a significant issue, with nearly one in four people from the Western Balkans residing abroad, impacting labor markets and economic dynamics [29].

Industry Overview - The Western Balkans region, comprising Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, is highly vulnerable to climate change, with cities facing increased risks from extreme weather events such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts [16][17] - Urban areas in the region are particularly affected, with more than half of the population residing in cities that are experiencing rapid urbanization and demographic shifts, including population decline in smaller cities and growth in larger ones [16][31] - The region's cities are characterized by low population density, isolated housing units, and inadequate infrastructure, which exacerbate the risks posed by natural disasters and climate change [16][31] Climate Change Impact on Cities - The frequency of extreme heat events in Western Balkan cities has increased significantly, from 0.09 months per year in the 1990s to 1.32 months per year in 2011-2020, while extreme cold events have declined [44][47] - Both extreme dry and wet weather events have been on the rise since the 2000s, with the average number of extremely dry months increasing from 0.05 in the 1970s to 0.24 in 2011-2020 [51][52] - Cities in the region are more susceptible to natural hazards than their counterparts in the broader Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, with heat stress, water stress, floods, and wildfires being the primary contributors to climate risk [54][55] Urban Development and Emissions - Urban sprawl in the Western Balkans has led to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution, with cities like Niš, Novi Sad, Pristina, and Sarajevo exhibiting unplanned growth patterns that exacerbate these issues [80][81] - Green and blue spaces in cities act as carbon and pollution sinks, but urban sprawl and soil sealing have reduced these areas, negatively impacting the carbon and pollution footprint of cities [82][84] - Poor waste management is a significant issue, with illegal dumpsites and poorly managed landfills contributing to methane emissions and worsening climate hazards such as wildfires [72][74] Resilience and Infrastructure Challenges - Cities in the Western Balkans face significant challenges in building resilience to climate change due to inadequate infrastructure, poor service provision, and high exposure to hydro-climatic hazards [79][92] - Informal settlements in the region are particularly vulnerable to climate risks, with poor-quality buildings and a lack of adaptation infrastructure increasing the risk of flooding, urban heat, and landslides [97][99] - The region's centralized but siloed approaches to disaster preparedness leave cities largely unprepared for large-scale disasters, with limited funding and capacity to address climate-related risks [105][107] Pathways for Sustainable Urban Development - To promote green, resilient, inclusive, and competitive cities, the report suggests revising zoning and land-use regulations, encouraging mixed-use development, and investing in sustainable mobility [19][20] - Nature-based solutions, such as green and blue strategies, are recommended to mitigate climate risks and improve the well-being of vulnerable communities [19][20] - Inclusive pathways involve community engagement, partnership building, and citizen empowerment to address inequality and promote social equity, while competitive pathways focus on private sector involvement and capital mobilization to drive economic growth [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The economic outlook for Afghanistan remains subdued with high downside risks due to persistent deflation, trade deficits, and restrictive laws affecting women's rights [6][7][12] - Bangladesh's real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.2 percent in FY24 to 4.0 percent in FY25, driven by subdued investment and industrial growth [16][21] - Bhutan's economic growth is expected to rise to 7.2 percent in FY24/25, supported by new hydropower plants and tourism recovery [24][30] - India's economy expanded by 8.2 percent in FY23/24, reflecting strong growth in manufacturing and construction [32][35] Summary by Sections Afghanistan - Economic growth of 2.7 percent in FY2023-24, recovering from a 27 percent contraction [6] - Key challenges include high poverty rates (48.3 percent), a growing trade deficit (13.5 percent of GDP), and restrictive laws affecting women's rights [7][12] - Projected GDP growth of 2.75 percent annually from 2024 to 2026, with poverty remaining above 40 percent [13][14] Bangladesh - Real GDP growth expected to slow from 5.2 percent in FY24 to 4.0 percent in FY25 due to subdued investment [16][21] - Extreme poverty projected to increase to 7.0 percent in FY25, affecting an additional 1.7 million people [22] - Current account deficit improved to US$6.5 billion (1.4 percent of GDP) in FY24 [18] Bhutan - Economic growth rose to 5.3 percent in FY23/24, projected to increase further due to hydropower and tourism [24][30] - Current account deficit expected to improve with increased exports from hydropower and tourism [24] - 19 percent of the population remains vulnerable to falling into poverty [25] India - Economy expanded by 8.2 percent in FY23/24, driven by manufacturing and construction [32][35] - High rates of youth unemployment and low rates of paid employment for women remain concerns [33] - Inflation slowed to 5.4 percent in FY23/24, but food price inflation remains high and volatile [35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Pacific Atoll countries [27]. Core Insights - The Pacific Atoll countries, including the Republic of Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and Tuvalu, face severe existential threats from climate change, necessitating urgent action from both local governments and the global community [27][31]. - The report emphasizes the need for significant investments in climate adaptation, with estimated costs of US$3.7 billion for Kiribati, US$1.0 billion for Tuvalu, and US$5.0 billion for RMI to adapt to a 0.5-meter rise in sea level [29][31]. - The CCDR outlines five key messages to guide policy actions towards a resilient future, focusing on community engagement, human capital investment, land administration, ecosystem protection, and governance improvements [31]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Climate Vulnerability - The Pacific Atoll countries are highly vulnerable due to their small size, low elevation, and economic circumstances, facing risks such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events [36][38]. - Historical climate trends indicate a warming of approximately 1°C since 1970, with significant variations in precipitation across the region [49][50]. Section 2: Climate Commitments and Capacities - The Pacific Atolls have demonstrated leadership in global climate discussions, advocating for the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature increases [27][36]. - The report highlights the importance of aligning international funding with national priorities to address financing gaps for climate adaptation [31]. Section 3: Adaptation Options - The CCDR provides near- and medium-term options for adaptation, including strengthening institutions, enhancing legal frameworks, and improving citizen engagement [28][31]. - Key adaptation strategies involve protecting freshwater resources, fisheries, and coral reefs to ensure food security and maintain island habitability [31]. Section 4: Financing Opportunities - The report stresses the need for increased concessional financing from international partners to support climate adaptation efforts [30][31]. - Enhanced revenue collection and fiscal reforms are necessary to manage the financial risks associated with climate change [29][31]. Section 5: Policy Options and Trade-offs - The CCDR concludes with priority policy options that recognize the need for continued efforts beyond the report's scope to achieve long-term climate resilience [31].

Public Disclosure Authorized Macro Poverty Outlook Country-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World Public Disclosure Authorized Annual Meetings 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized MPO © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations ...

Economic Update - Economic growth in Maldives picked up in early 2024, with real GDP growing by 9.8% year-on-year in Q1, driven by a 9.3% growth in the tourism sector [20] - Tourist arrivals increased by 10.5% year-on-year as of end-August 2024, with Chinese arrivals leading the market at 14.6% of total visitors [20] - Headline inflation declined to an average of 0.5% in H1 2024, but food inflation remained elevated at 6.7% year-on-year [21] - The fiscal deficit narrowed to MVR 677 million (0.6% of GDP) in Q1 2024, with revenue increasing by 9.1% year-on-year, driven by tourism-related tax collections [22] - Expenditure cuts led to a build-up of arrears, with delays in payments to contractors, fishermen, and private hospitals [23] - The current account deficit (CAD) is expected to narrow to 16% of GDP in 2024, supported by robust growth in travel sector receipts [24] - Foreign exchange reserves declined to critically low levels, covering only 1 month of imports as of August 2024 [25] - Public debt rose to 115.7% of GDP in Q1 2024, with domestic debt increasing to 68.4% of GDP due to tighter global financial conditions [27] Outlook and Risks - Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 4.7% in 2024, supported by the completion of the new terminal at Velana International Airport [28] - Inflation is expected to rise significantly, reaching 7.8% in 2025, driven by the removal of blanket subsidies [29] - The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 6.1% of GDP by 2026, with public debt declining to 111.4% of GDP [30] - External debt servicing needs are expected to spike to $1.07 billion in 2026, including bullet payments for the $500 million Sukuk [30] - Downside risks include elevated external and fiscal vulnerabilities, limited buffers, and potential delays in fiscal reforms [31] Policy Priorities for Climate and Development - Sea-level rise (SLR) is a major climate concern, with projections suggesting a potential rise of 0.5 to 0.9 meters by 2100, which could damage up to 3.3% of total assets by 2050 [34] - Coral reefs are under threat, with almost all coral cover potentially lost if global temperatures exceed 2°C, impacting tourism and fisheries [35] - Severe climate-induced impacts are expected to escalate by 2050, with ocean heating potentially causing the collapse of coral reefs and fish stocks [36] - The tourism sector requires accelerated climate adaptation efforts, with over 90% of resorts grappling with beach erosion and infrastructure damage [37] - Fisheries revenue could decline by almost 100% by the end of the century under a high-emission scenario, necessitating alternative livelihood opportunities [38] - Financing requirements for climate adaptation to SLR and flooding alone range between $2 billion and $4 billion [40]

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized SASPP Policy Note Series POLICY NOTE 11 | SEPTEMBER 2024 2 SASPP Policy Note Series September 2024 1 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS The Sahel is a dynamic region where population mobility is central to people's livelihoods an ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Low-income countries (LICs) require significant resources to address development challenges, needing an additional annual investment equivalent to 8 percent of GDP through 2030 to meet critical goals [21][22] - The average government debt-to-GDP ratio in LICs rose to 72 percent in 2023, marking a significant increase and indicating widespread debt accumulation across these economies [23] - Fiscal deficits in LICs have expanded from 1.2 percent of GDP in 2019 to 2.4 percent in 2023, driven by rising debt and interest payments [23][24] Summary by Sections I. Introduction - The pandemic and subsequent global shocks have exacerbated development challenges in LICs, with about 40 percent of the population living in extreme poverty as of 2024 [41][42] II. Evolution of Fiscal Positions in LICs - Government revenues in LICs averaged 18 percent of GDP from 2011 to 2019, significantly lower than other emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) [47] - The average fiscal deficit in LICs is estimated at 2.4 percent of GDP in 2023, reflecting a deterioration in fiscal positions [42] III. Fiscal Vulnerability to Shocks - LICs are particularly vulnerable to global recessions and domestic conflicts, which can lead to significant fiscal imbalances and increased government debt [26][27] - The impact of global recessions on LICs includes an average deterioration of fiscal balances by 1.7 percentage points of GDP [26] IV. Fiscal Policy Options in LICs - Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and improving spending efficiency are critical for enhancing fiscal positions in LICs [36][37] - The report emphasizes the need for international support to help LICs stabilize their fiscal positions and improve policy management [39] V. Conclusion - The report highlights the urgent need for well-designed national policy interventions to improve fiscal positions in LICs, including better tax administration and enhanced public spending efficiency [36][37]